Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Wednesday Market Action

Yesterday I said: "My best guess is that the decline has resumed, as of this afternoon, and we can expect it to continue in earnest tomorrow."   I don't have a crystal ball and I'm not a genius.  This is just keeping an open mind and reading the waves.  The drop from about 2:15 yesterday afternoon does look like an impulse, so I'll say I got this one right.

While it's possible to read this drop as a complete 5 down into today's close, I don't think the pattern is quite finished.  I think a wave 1 (at some small trend level) ended just before the close yesterday, and wave three may have ended just before the close today.  Going out on a limb, if this is right, there should be a small wave 4 bounce - in the 5 to 10 point range - early tomorrow, followed by another 15 to 20 point (possibly larger) decline.  Then, there should be a correction of the entire drop from yesterday afternoon.  That should lead to a choppy day tomorrow, and possibly an uptick on Friday.  {/limb}

I'll have a graph later in the week with lots of wave labels.

UPDATE: Note that yesterday's open gap has been completely filled in.

.

No comments: