Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, February 22, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 22, 2021

Monday, February 22, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,521.69   +27.37 (+0.09%)

The Index opened at 31381, 0ff 113 points, and within 3 minutes dropped to the lo of 31287, 0ff 203. Then, at 10:45 it reached a local hi of 31486, off 8.  After a slight draw back, it arced up to a marginal new intra-day hi [by 6 points] of 31654, and hovered in that range from 2:00 to 3:00.  Then there was a 132 point slide into the close, thus missing a new closing hi by 91 points.

This is an outside day, with the hi up by a meager 6 points, and the lo lower by 183.  The gain at the close is trivial.  The 367 point span is the largest since 564 on 2/12, during the recovery from the late January slide.  But note that the majority of the change is on the lo side.

Measures of momentum are converging again.  At the lo end, it slid by a tiny amount for the 3rd straight day, while at longer ranges it’s rising.

All the indexes fell off at the end of the day.  The SP500 and NASDAQ stayed in the red throughout, the latter taking a hard slide.  The Russell 2000 spent a few hours in the green, but was negative at the end of the session.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.09% 

SP500 -0.77%   

NASDAQ  -2.48%    

Russell 2000 -0.69% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/22/19 - 26031

02/19/20 - 29348

01/19/21 - 30997

02/19/21 - 31522

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1564/1678 = 0.93

A/D Vol = 1.24

New Hi/Lo = 332/15 = 22.13

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Monday, February 15, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 15

Monday, February 15, 2021

Market's are closed for President's day.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,522.75   +64.35 (+0.20%)

The index opened at 31472, up 14 points, and immediately surged up to 31580, up 122.  After drifting down for 45 minutes, the Index surged up to an all time intra-day high of 31609 at 10:30.  It then slid again, hitting the day’s lo of 31444 shortly after noon. It rose again, hitting 31575 after 2:30.  From there, it staggered down into the close.  Still, this is a new all time closing hi, 64 points above last Friday’s all time closing hi.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 137 and 96 points, respectively.  The span was a rather modest 165 points.  The 10 day average has dropped from 424 on 2/05 to 260 today.

The day’s gain is small, but there are new highs, and the Index was only in the red for a brief moment at the low.  So I’m giving the day’s action a green arrow.

The other indexes were slightly in the red today, with the RU2000 getting the worst of it. A day of reckoning is coming, and after the *ultimate* all time hi [whenever that is,] the market will have lo to negative returns for a decade or more.  It might be in two years.  I don’t think it’s in two weeks.  Elliott waver Avi Gilburt is giving it 2 years or more of robust gains.  For now, though, enjoy the ride.

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.20% 
SP500 -0.06%
NASDAQ -0.34%
Russell 2000 -0.72%

DJI30 Closings -
02/15/19 - 25883
02/14/20 - 29398
01/15/21 - 30814
02/16/21 - 31522

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1515/1745 = 0.87
A/D Vol = 1.41
New Hi/Lo = 382/9 = 42.44

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Thursday, February 11, 2021

The Fed is not as powerful as you think

It's been almost 9 years since I wrote this post at Angry Bear. I'll admit that the idea isn't original. I got it from Elliott Wave International. But my own look at the data confirmed it. The Fed does not control short-term interest rates. The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate, but this is a close follower of 3 month T-Bill rates, which are set by an open market auction. The FFR always lags 3-mo T-Bills, and never leads. The lag can be very short, or as much as 4 months at major turning points.
Now I see another Elliott Waver making this same point, and providing these graphs.

The Evil of the Right Wing

I've said repeatedly and for years that trump is what the rethugs have wanted for years. This is why they stick with him now - he IS them. What attracts the trump follower at this late date is not any sort of conservative value system, but rather his crudeness, his cruelty, his racism, his sexism, his contempt for social and political norms, and likely even his ignorance.

Conservatism, at it's best, is never too far from authoritarianism, and can easily devolve into this kind of demented right-wingery. People say the conflict is not left-right, but rather decent-indecent. But right now [and perhaps always] indecent = far right.

It has never been about trump, per se, but rather about whatever cipher could represent the evil and ugliness of the right wing raw id. Perhaps trump is uniquely suited because he is negatively charismatic in a way that appeals to these deplorables.

But it was never about trump the person. It was always about trump as a symbol of what a certain class of right wing extremist wants and needs.

Monday, February 8, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of February 8, 2021

Monday, February 8, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   31,385.76    +237.52 (+0.76%)

The Index opened at 31191, up 43 points.  I reached 31359 short;y after 10:00.  There was slump, hitting 21240 before noon followed by sideways motion staying below 31310 until 3:30.  It then rose, with a 50 point spike in the last 3 minutes on a volume surge to close within 1 point of the hi.

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo up by 134 and 108 points, respectively.  These are not big numbers, but the Index did burst through to new all time intra-day and closing highs, so that has to be acknowledged.  With that out of the way, the sky is now the limit.

This market is overvalued by any rational measure you can think of.  But none of that matters, since the market is fueled by emotion.  I think there is now new hope in the air with the loathsome trump regime in the rear view mirror and vaccines, stimulus money and reopening on the horizon.  These things are anticipated and IMHO the anticipated effects over-blown, but here we are.

I bought a basket of hi-yielding and/or hi dividend growth issues today.  My hope is that they will continue to pump out cash and weather whatever down-turns may be ahead of us.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.76% 

SP500 +0.74%   

NASDAQ  _+0.93%    

Russell 2000 +2.53% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/08/19 - 25106

02/07/20 - 29103

01/08/20 - 30174

02/08/21 - 31386

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2353/861 = 2.73

A/D Vol = 2.95

New Hi/Lo = 315/2 = 157.50

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of February 1, 2021

Monday, February 1, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways.

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,211.91   +229.29 (+0.76%)

The index opened at 30055, up 72 points.  It dropped 40 points to 30315 before 10:00, and bounced off lows in that range several times before rising to 30250, up 232 at 11:45.  It stayed above 30200 and below 30270 until 2:15 when it rose, hitting 30336, up 353 at 2:45.  From there it was a bumpy 124 point slide into the close, including a 55 point drop in the last 6 minutes - on a volume spike.

This is an inside day with the the hi lower by 218 points, and the lo higher by 229 - hence the yellow arrow.  The 320 point spread is well centered in Friday’s 798.  The 229 point rise is rather anemic given the 1400 point drop [4.5%] from the 1/21 all time hi to Friday’s lo.  Momentum is still sharply down.

This looks very much like a counter-current move, and I think the main trend is still down. The drop in the day’s last 1+ hour is consistent with this idea. For what it’s worth, the other indexes has significantly larger gains today

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.76% 

SP500 +1.61%   

NASDAQ  +2.55%    

Russell 2000 +2.53% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/01/19 - 25064

01/31/20 - 28256

12/31/20 - 30606

02/01/21 - 30212

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2522/702 = 3.59

A/D Vol = 4.40

New Hi/Lo = 89/2 = 44.5

Tuesday, February 2, 2021