Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, December 27, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of December 27, 2021

Monday, December 27, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,791.19   +65.40 (+1.38%)

DJI30 --- 36,302.38   +351.82 (+0.98%)

NASDAQ --- 15,871.26   +217.89 (+1.39%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,261.46   +19.89 (+0.89%)

The SP500 opened at 4733, up 8 points, and immediate;y rose to 4750. It then rose more slowly, reaching 4774 at noon and 4784 at 2:30.  After a slight draw back it rose into the late day hi, closing less than a point lower.  Last Thursday the index came within 4 points of a new intra-day hi.  Also on Thursday it reached a new closing hi by 13 points, and today it exceeded that by 65.

Elliott Wave analyst Avi Gilbert identifies 4677 as a critical support level to maintain the short term bullish case.  A significant break of that level means that a corrective phase is unfolding with further declines expected.  He also identifies 4788 [top horizontal line on the graph] as critical resistance.  An impulsive break through suggests further gains ahead.

The DJI30 opened at 35954, up 4 points, and immediately rose to 36077.  It chopped up and down for 45 minutes, then climbed again reaching 36187 at 12:15 and 36265 at 2:30.  After a slump to 36200 after 3:00 it rose sharply to close 4 points under the late day hi.  This index is approaching new highs, but has not yet achieved them.

The NASDAQ opened at 15697, up 43 points, and quickly rose to 15763.  After a brief draw back it climbed to  

155844 at 12:15 and after 2:30.  Following a slump to 15825 before 2:30 it rose to close within a fraction of the day's hi.  It is still 200 to 400 points under recent all time highs.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2242, up a point.  It slumped to 2230, off 11, at 10:00, then quickly rose, reaching 2255 at 11:15.  It ran horizontal above 2250 until after 3:30 when it climbed sharply into the close for the day's largest gain.  It remains about 200 points under the recent all time highs.

This is a nice follow up to last week's gains, and a good start to the week.  Maybe there is a Santa Clause.



Tuesday, December 28, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,786.32   -4.87 (-0.10%)

DJI30 --- 36,398.21   +95.83 (+0.26%)

NASDAQ --- 15,781.72   -89.54 (-0.56%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,246.51   -14.95 (-0.66%)

The SP500 opened at 4795, up 4 points.  It reached 4807, the day's hi, before 10:00.  It then dropped the rest of the day in two choppy looking steps, hitting 4780, the lo, at 12:30.  It then wandered into the close for a small loss.

It reached a new intra-day hi, but not a new closing hi, faltering within 10 points of the critical resistance level I mentioned yesterday.  But after 5 strong days, a slight pull back is not a surprise, and does not, on its own, impede the bullish case.

The DJI30 followed a roughly similar path, It opened at 36302, the day's lo, up a fraction, and reached 36527, up 225, the hi, after 10:00.  It also fell in two steps, hitting 36344, an intermediate lo, at 12:30, before chopping into the close for the day's only gain.  It remains about 40 points under all time highs.

The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 24, and reached 15901, the hi, up 30, at 10:00. It had a bumpy ride down until hitting 15757, the lo, off 114, after 2:00.  From there it was a slight rise and fall into the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2261, off a fraction.  It reached 2275, the hi, up 13, at 10:00.  It fell to 2246, the lo, off 16, at 12:30, struggled to reach 2257 at 3:30, then drooped, finishing within a point of the lo for the day's largest loss.

Wednesday December 29, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close ---  4,793.06   +6.71 (+0.14%)

DJI30 --- 36,488.63   +90.42 (+0.25%)

NASDAQ --- 115,766.22   -15.51 (-0.10%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,249.24   +2.74 (+0.12%)

The SP500 opened at 4789, up 2 points, and dropped to 4778, the lo, off 8 points at 10:15.  It stayed under 4793 until 2:00, and reached 4804, the hi at 3:50, the dropped hard into the close for a small gain. 

The DJI30 opened at 36421, up 23, quickly reached 36509, up 111, then dropped to 36396, off 2, the lo, at 10:15. It stayed below 36509 until 3:00, and reached 46572.the hi at 3:50 before dropping hard into the close for a modest gain.  

The NASDAQ opened at  15795, up 13, and dropped to 15680, off 102 at 10:15.  It then stayed below 15777 until 3:30, hitting 15792 after 3:50, followed by a drop into the close for a small loss. 

The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, off a fraction, and dropped to 2237, off 10, at 10:15. It climbed to 2253, the hi, after 11:00. it snaked around neutral, staying above 2243 the rest of the day, then rising from that level after 3:30 to close with a small gain.

Today's action appears to be counter-current to the presumed short term up trend.  The SP500 has stalled within a few points of 4788, the critical resistance level identified by Avi Gilbert.  Pushing through that level with an impulse will validate the bullish case.



Thursday December 30, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close ---  4,778.73   -14.33 (-0.30%)

DJI30 --- 36,398.08  -90.55 (-0.25%)

NASDAQ --- 15,741.56   -24.65 (-0.16%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,248.79   -0.45 (-0.02%)

The SP500 opened at 4794, up 1.  It reached 4809, up 16, the hi, before 10:30.  It drifted slowly lower until 3:30, when it fell sharply, hitting 4775, the low, just 3 minutes before the close.  The 3 point rise at the end came on a volume surge.

The index remains stalled near the critical resistance level of 4788.  It did reach a new intra-day hi by less than 2 points, but missed a closing hi by 12.

The DJI30 36522, up 34, and quickly rose to 36679, up 191. It dropped to 36500 at 11:45, and wound around that level until 3:30 when it dropped hitting 36372, the low, 3 minutes before the close. It rose 26 points into the close on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15759, off 7 points.  It rose to 15855 before 10:30.  I hovered near that level nutil 2:30, hitting 15868, the hi, at noon.  At 3:00 it fell hard, reaching 15729, the lo, 3 minutes before the lo. It the rose 13 points on a volume surge.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2249.  It rose to 2272, the hi, up 23, after 10:00.  It stayed above 2265, hitting the hi again at 2:45.  It then dropped hard, hitting 2247, the lo, off 2 points, 3 minutes before the close.  It then rose, ending off a half point. 

This appears to be a counter-current wave still unfolding.



Friday December 31, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,766.18   -12.55 (-0.26%)

DJI30 --- 36,338.30   -59.78 (-0.16%)

NASDAQ --- 15,644.97   -96.59 (-0.61%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,245.31   -3.48 (-0.15%)

The SP500 opened at 4775, off 4 points, and quickly rose to 4787, the hi, up 8.  It then fell and stayed slightly negative until 1:00.  It spent most of the afternoon chopping around neutral, but dropped vertically in the last 15 minutes to finish within a half point of the last minute lo, on a volume surge, for a small loss.

Today's action surrounded the critical resistance level identified earlier in the week.  So the year ends on a very uncertain note.  Is a counter-current wave unfolding, or is the index topping and ready to fall?

The DJI30 opened at 36386, off 12, and stayed in negative territory until 1:00, hitting 36304, the lo, off 94, before 12:30.  It then spend most of the afternoon above neutral, hitting 36485, the hi, up 87 after 2:00.  It also took a dive at the end on a volume surge, ending 34 points above the low, for a small loss.

The NASDAQ opened at 15723, off 19.  Ot quickly rose to 15777, the hi, up 36.  It dropped to 15694 around 11:00, and stayed close to that level until the last 15 minutes when it dropped to 15644, the lo, 1 point below the close.  It finished with the day's largest loss.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, 0ff 3 points, and climbed to 2258, the hi, up 9, after 10:00.  It meandered close to the neutral line until the last few minutes when it fell to close just a half point above the late-day lo.

These choppy losses over the last few days do not look impulsive; so I still think we are seeing counter-current motion within an upward trend.








Monday, December 20, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of December 20, 2021

Monday, December 20, 2021

SP500 at the close --- 4,568.02 -52.62 (-1.14%)

DJI30 --- 34,932.16   -433.28 (-1.23%)

NASDAQ --- 14,980.94   -188.74 (-1.24%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,139.87   -34.06 (-1.57%)

Not one minute was spent in positive territory by any of these indexes.  And they all lost more than a percent.  This is a thoroughly dismal start to the week.  

Elliott wave analyst Avi Gilbert identified the range 4550 to 4585 as a critical support level to preserve the short term bullish case.  Today's minimum was 4531, and the index stayed below 4550 from about 10:30 until 1:30,  finishing squarely in the support range.  The red line on the chart is at 4550.

So, despite the weak performance, the trend direction is still ambiguous.



Tuesday, December 21, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,603.84.  +35.82 (+0.78%)

DJI30 --- 35,492.70   +560.54 (+1.60%)

NASDAQ --- 15,341.09   +360.14 (+2.40%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,202.95   +63.07 (+2.95%)

The SP500 opened at 4595, up 27 points.  It dropped to 4583, the lo, after 10:30.  It rose the rest of the day, closing less than 2 points under the hi. It held support just below the 4550 level mentioned yesterday.  This is the highest close since 12/16.

The DJI30 opened at 35070, the lo, up 137 points.  I hovered near 35509, the hi, most of the time after 1:00.  The close was abut 15 points under the hi.  This is the highest close since 12/16.

The NASDAQ opened at 15140, off 29 points.  It dropped to 15015, the lo, after 10:00.  It rose the rest of the day, closing 8 points under the hi.  It held support at the 144 EMA .This is the highest close since 12/15.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2141, the lo, up 2 points.  It rose the entire day to finish a small fraction of point under the hi for the day's largest gain. It held support at the 144 day EMA. This close the highest since 12/10.


Wednesday, December 22, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,696.56   +47.33 (+1.02%)

DJI30 --- 35,753.89   +261.19 (+0.74%)

NASDAQ --- 15,521.89   +180.81 (+1.18%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,221.90   +18.96 (+0.86%)

The SP500 opened at 4650, up a point, and quickly fell to 4645, the lo.  It climbed to 4688 at 1:00, and after a slight draw back rose to 4698, the hi, just before and about a point above the close.

The DJI30 opened at 35492, off 1, and until after 10:00 bounced near 35433, off 60.   It rose to 35762 at 1:00.  After a slight drawback it rose to 35765, just before and 11 points above the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15319, off 22. It quickly dropped to 15303, off 38, then climbed to 15492 at noon. After a partial drawback it rose to 15526 just before and 4 points above the close.

The Russell opened at 2202, off a fraction. It bounced further into negative territory, hitting near 2195, the lo, off 8.   It climbed to 2219 after 1:00, and after a partial draw back climbed to 2223, a few minutes before and less than a point above the close.

After a rather shaky start this was a day of solid gains.  The SP500 is approaching close to its recent all time highs.  But the other indexes are not.  Today's gains add support to the bullish short term case, but are far from definitive.




Thursday, December 23, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,725.79   +29.23 (+0.62%)

DJI30 --- 35,950.56   +196.67 (+0.55%)

NASDAQ --- 15,653.37   +131.48 (+0.85%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,242.75   +20.85 (+0.94%)

The SP500 opened at 4704, up 7 and rose quickly until 11:15 when it level off near 4730.  It climbed to 4740 after 3:45, then fell 15 points into the close.

The DJI30 opened at 35782, up 71 and quickly rose to 35970.  It ran near that level until 1:45, when it rose again hitting 36061, the high after 3:45, then fell 110 points into the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15545, up 23, and climbed quickly until mid-morning.  It then climbed more slowly until 3:00, when it slipped a bit until 3:30, the rose to 1598, the hi, before dropping 45 points into the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2222, up a fraction.  After languishing for an hour it rose, reaching 2248, the hi, at 2:00.  From there, it was a bumpy 6 point slide into the close.

This was a day of substantial gains, only marred by the declines in the closing moments.  This could be the beginning of a down turn or just part of a counter-current wave at some lo level of trend, assuming this week's gains are impulsive. 

That wraps up this week, with the markets closed tomorrow in observance of the Christmas holiday.

Weekly gains -
SP500 + 2.28%
DJI30 + 1.65%
NASDAQ + 3.19%
Russell + 3.11%






Monday, December 13, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of December 13, 2021

Monday, December 13, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close --- 4,668.97.  -43.05 (-0.91%)

DJI30 --- 35,650.95   -320.04 (-0.89%)

NASDAQ --- 15,413.28  -217.32 (-1.39%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,180.50  -31.31 (-1.42%)

The SP500 opened at 4710, the day's hi, off 2 points, and fell to near 4670 from 11:30 to noon. It recovered to near 4690 from 3:00 to 3:30, then fell into the close, less than 2 points above the late day lo, on a volume surge.

The DJI30 opened at 35959, the day's hi, off 12 points, and fell near 35620 from 11:00 to noon. It slowly rose to 35790 at 3:45, then fell almost 140 points into the close on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15621, off 9 points. It dropped to about 15420 for a while near noon. It rose to 15520 after 3:00, then fell hard after 3:30 to close only 5 points above the late day lo.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2212, the day's hi. It dropped to 2169, the lo, at noon, then recovered to 2195 at about 3:15. then fell15 points into the close for the day's largest loss.

This is a dismal start to the week, with each index starting at or near the high, then tumbling to finish close to the day's lo.

At this point, I have no idea if the current trend is up or down. I can justify an up trend continuing based on the SP500 chart; but the Russell 2000 looks like it is heading down.



Tuesday, December 14, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,634.09   -34.88 (-0.75%)

DJI30    ---  35,544.18   -106.77 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ   ---   15,237.64   -175.64 (-1.14%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,159.65   -20.84 (-0.96%)

The SP500 opened at 4643, off 26 points.  It fell to near 4607, the lo, off 62, from noon until 2:00.  It reached 4650, an intermediate hi, after 3:30, then fell under 4630 before a slight rise into the close.  At the lo, it was near the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and still above potential support from early September.

The DJI30 opened at 35606, off 45 points.  It bounced around near 35442, the low, from 11:00 to 2:00.  It rose to 35640 after 3:30, then fell under 35500 before a slight rise into the close.  At the lo, it was near both the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and a potential support zone from mid  August.

The NASDAQ opened at 15216, off 197 points.  It reached 15318, the hi, off 96, at 9:45.  I stayed near 15097, the lo, off 316, from 11:00 to 2:00, and rose to 15290 after 3:30.  It then fell to 15210 before a slight rise into the close.  It is hovering in what could be a support level from early September.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2179, off 2 points. It reached 2190, the hi, up 9, before 10:30, and fell to 2153, the lo, off 27, at 2:00. It rose above 2170 at 3:30, then fell to 2156 before  slight rise into the close.  At the low, it was in the vicinity of a support line going back a year.  A strong breach of 2160 would be a very bad sign.  

The idea that the current trend is up is still supportable for the SP500 and DJI30, strained for the NASDAQ, and highly suspicious for the Russell 2000. One way or another, the picture should offer some clarity before the end of the week.  Maybe.  I hope. 




Wednesday, December 15, 2021 

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,709.75   +75.66 (+1.63%)

DJI30    ---  35,927.43   +383.25 (+1.08%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,565.58   +327.94 (+2.15%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,195.21   +35.56 (+1.65%)

The SP500 opened at 4636, up 2 points, then stayed near 4611, the lo, from 10:00 until 2:00.  There was a sharp but bumpy rise into the hi, just 2 points above the close, with a volume surge in the waning moments. 

The DJI opened at 35549, up 5 points, and quickly fell to 35390, the lo, off 155.  It hovered slightly above that level util almost noon, when it began a slow rise that accelerated after 2:00. This led up to the late day hi, just 16 points above the close, ending on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15231, off 7 points.  It slid down to 15055, the lo, off 182, before 12:30.  After 2:00 if started rising up to the close, ending only 10 points under the late day hi.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2160, up a fraction, and dropped to 3131, the lo, off 29 before noon.  After 2:00, it rose, hitting over 2199 about 20 minutes before the close, 5 points lower.

These nice increases are comforting.  But it is still unclear which way the indexes are heading.  One day is not enough to clarify things – so hang on for the next few days.



Thursday, December 16, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,668.67   -41.18 (-0.87%)

DJI30    ---  35,897.64   -29.79 (-0.08%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,180.43   -385.15 (-2.47%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,152.46   -42.75 (-1.95%)

The SP500 opened at 4719, up 9 points.  It fell pretty steadily to the4652, the lo, off 58, before rising to 4686, then sliding into the close on a volume surge, for a substantial loss, despite the hi and lo both being higher..

The DJI30 opened at 36036, up 109, and rose to 36199, the hi, up 262  It then fell to 35778, the lo, off 149, before 3:00.  It rose to 36025 after 3:30, the slumped to the close on a volume surge for a tiny loss.  Still, the hi and lo were both higher.

The NASDAQ opened at 15629, up 64 points, quickly rose 4 into the hi, then dropped to 15119, the lo, before 3:00.  It rose to 15245 after 3:30, then slid into the close for a huge loss.  Contra that, the hi and lo were both higher.

The Russell opened at 2197, up less than 2 points, and rose to 2216, the hi, up 21, before 10:00.  It fell to 2145, the lo, off 51, then stumbled into the close for a large loss.

This was a strange session with losses ranging from insignificant to massive, but higher extremes in all the indexes.  The Russell is hovering at its support level, with today's range surrounding 2160.  This appears to be a significant level, and a meaningful break lower could be a worrisome signal.




Friday, December 17, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,620.64   -48.03 (-1.03%)

DJI30    ---  35,365.44   -532.20 (-1.48%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,169.68   -10.75 (-0.07%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,173.93   +21.48 (+1.00%)

The SP500 opened at 4653, off 16 points.  It dropped to 4600, the lo, off 68, at 10:15, then rose to 4667, the hi, off 2, an hour later.  After a smaller drop and rise, it slid from 2:00 into the close, on a volume surge at the end for a substantial loss. The day's range is above the 55 dy EMA, and surrounds the 13 day EMA.

The DJI30 opened at 35800, the hi, off 98 points. It dropped to 35284, the lo, off 611, at 10:15, then rose to 36661 at 11:15.  From there tumbled the rest of the day, closing about 80 points above the lo for a substantial loss,   The day's range surrounds the 13 and 55 day EMAs.

The NASDAQ opened at 15037, of 144 points, and dropped to 14960, the lo, off 220. a few minutes later  It reached 15289, the hi, up 108 at 11:15.  It didn't drop below 15111 again, and snaked around neutral the rest of the day, closing with a tiny loss.  These values are above the 144 EMA , but below the 55 EMA.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2153, then dropped to 2125, the lo, off 28.  It hovered near 2186, the hi, up 34, from before 11:00 until after 11:30. It stayed above 2165 he rest of the day, and slid into the close for a substantial gain.  It is straddling the support level around 2160.

It's unusual for the Russell to gains when the other indexes are down.  This might all still be counter-current to the main thrust.  But which way that is heading is ambiguous.  That uncertainty itself suggests counter-current motion.  We'll just have to wait and see.

This week's losses were not enough to negate last week's large gains.

Weekly changes
SP500   –1/94%
DJI30  -1.68%
NASDAQ  -2.95%
Russell 2000  -1.71%






Monday, December 6, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of December 6, 2021

Monday December 6, 2021 

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,591.67   +53.24 (+1.17%)

DJI30    ---  35,227.03   +646.95 (+1.87%)

 NASDAQ   ---   15,225.15   +139.68 (+0.93%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,203.48   +44.17 (+2.05%)

The SP500 opened at 4548, up 10 points, and reached its lo, 4541, up 2 a few minutes later.  It hovered near 4613, the hi, from 1:30 to 2:30, then slid 21 points into the close

The DJI 30 opened at 34633, the lo, up 53.  It hovered near the hi, 35357, up 777, from 1:00 until after 2:30.  It then slid 130 points into the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15111, up 32 points, and quickly dropped to its low, 1492, off 153.  It hovered near 15282, the hi, from 1:30 until after 2:30, then slid 57 points into the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2160, up 1 point.  It hit it's lo, off 5, a few minutes later; and it's hi, 2218, up 59, after 2:00, then slid 15 points into the close. 

It's been a rough road since Thanksgiving; but this is a nice start to the week.  The slips at the end are the only negative.  As I write this at about 8:30 pm, index futures are up slightly. 



Tuesday December 7, 2021 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,686.75   +95.08 (+2.07%)

DJI30    ---  35,719.43.  +492.40 (+1.40%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,686.92   +461.76 (+3.03%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,253.79   +50.31 (+2.28%)

All the indexes had similar contours today, leading to substantial gains.

The SP500 opened at 4632, up 40 points. It reached its hi, 4694, up 102 after 11:00.  It hovered just below that level until after 3:00, when it took a plunge under 4670 after 3:50, then sharply recovered into the close on a volume surge.

The DJI 30 opened at 35424, up 197 points, and reached its hi, 35819, at 11:00.  It hung under that level until after 3:00, when it fell, but not as sharply as the SP500.  It also rose into the close on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15511, up 286 points.  It climbed to its hi.15720, up 286, before 2:00.  It also fell after 3:00, and then rose into the close for the day's largest gain.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2207, up 3 points.  After 11:00 it reached its hi, 2272, up 68.  It also has a dip and recovery late in the day.
This is a good start to yesterday's gains, but there is still a ways to go to reach the recent new highs.  The SP500 is the closest, and the Russell is the farthest away.




Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---  4,701.21   +14.46 (+0.31%)

DJI30    ---  35,754.75   +35.32 (+0.10%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,786.99   +100.07 (+0.64%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,271.71   +17.92 (+0.80%)

The SP500 opened at 2254.31, up 4 points, and dropped to its lo, off 12, at 11:00. It reached its hi, up 18 after  3:50 and slid into the close.

The DJI30 opened at 35716.35, off 3 points.  It hovered at or near the lo, off 117, from 11:00 to almost 2:30  It his the hi, up 86 points after 3:30, then slipped about 50 points into the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15690.60 and quickly fell to the lo, off 68.  It reached the hi, up 106, after 3:50, and slid 6 points into the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2254.31, up a fraction, and quickly fell to its lo, off 6 points. It reached the hi, up 23, before noon. It stayed above 2209 the rest of the day.  It also drooped a bit at the end.

After two strong days, this session, though positive, struggled a bit, and was not exciting.  Is this week's recovery running out of steam?  My guess is no.  But we'll have to see how things develop.



Thursday, December 9, 2021 

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,667.45   -33.76 (-0.72%)

DJI30    ---  35,754.69   -0.06 (-0.00%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,517.37   -269.62 (-1.71%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,220.21   -51.50 (-2.27%)

The SP500 opened at 4691, off 10 points, and immediately rose to the hi, off 6 points.  It slid pretty steadily the rest of the day to close within 2 points of the lo.

The DJI opened at 35722, off 32 points. And immediately dropped to 35578, the lo.  From there it rose to the hi, 35864, up 109.  It then tumbled into the close to end flat.

The NASDAQ opened at 15721, and within a few minutes rose to 15976, the hi.  It then fell pretty steadily for the rest of the session, ending 6 points above the late day close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2270, the day's hi.  It also slid the rest of the day, ending within a small fraction of the lo, for the day's largest loss.

Only the DJI spent a significant amount of time above water, but it could not hold that modest gain.  This was a pretty strongly negative day, overall.  I'm not giving up the notion that the current short term trend is up, though.  Nothing travels in a straight line. This could easily be counter current.  We'll see. 


Friday, December 10, 2021 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,712.02   +44.57 (+0.95%)

DJI30    ---  35,970.99   +216.30 (+0.60%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,630.60  +113.23 (+0.73%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,211.81.   -8.40 (-0.38%)

The SP500 opened at 4688, up 20 points, and slipped to 4670, the lo, up 3, after 11:00.  It climbed the rest of the session, in three steps, to end within 2 points of the late day hi for the day's largest gain.

The DJI30 opened at 35830, up 76.  It dropped to 35710, its lo, after 11:00.  It also climbed the rest of the session, ending 11 points under the late day hi. 

The NASDAQ opened at 15630, up 112 points.  It hit its lo, 15478, off 40, after 11:00.  It ran flatish near 15560 until 2:30, when it rose into the close to finish within a point of where it started. A round trip to nowhere.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2221, up less than 2 points. It also his its lo, 2200, off 20, after 11:00.  But it never regained positive territory, running close to 2210 until 3:30, when it rose slightly into the close for a modest loss.

For the three gainers, this is either the up trend reasserting  itself, or a more complex counter-current wave still unfolding.  The latter seems to be the case with the Russell.

The gains this week were spectacular.  But none of the indexes are at new highs, and the RUT is lagging badly.

Weekly changes -
SP500 + 3.82%
DJI30  + 4.02%
NASDAQ + 3.61%
Russell + 2.43%




Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of November 29, 2021

 Monday, November 29, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,655.27   +60.65 (+1.32%)

DJI30    ---  35,135.94   +236.60 (+0.68%)

 NASDAQ   ---   15,782.83+291.18 (+1.88%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,241.98.  -3.96 (-0.18%)

The SP500 opened up 34 points, had a slight mid-morning slump, and hit the hi, up 78 after 1:00, From there it slid into the close, for a substantial gain.

The DJI 30 opened up 118 points, gave it all back before 11:00, It rose to the day's hi, up 389 after 1:00, then slid into the close for a reasonable gain. 

The NASDAQ opened up 228 points, and slid back a little until after 10:30. It reached the hi, up 341 after 1:00, then slid into the close for the day's largest gain.

The Russell 2000 opened positive, but slumped into the red mid-morning and again at the end of the day. It finished with a small loss.

This was a nice recovery for all except the Russell – and most especially for the NASDAQ.  Who knows where we go from here?


Tuesday, November 29, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---  4,567.00.  -88.27 (-1.90%)

DJI30    ---  34,483.72.  -652.22 (-1.86%)

 NASDAQ   ---   15,537.69.  -245.14 (-1.55%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,198.91.  -43.07 (-1.92%)

The SP500 opened off 15 points, and fell until about mid-day.  After that, it was mostly sideways, ending with a substantial loss.  It is right at its 55 day EM\A.

The DJI30 opened off 79 points, and followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss.  Itis now under its 144 day EMA.

The NASDAQ  opened off 66 points, and also followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss, though a bit less than the other indexes.

The Russell 2000 opened off 5 pints, and also followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss. It's 52 points under its 144 day EMA.






Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of November 22, 2021

This will be an abbreviated week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Monday, November 22, 2021


Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close --- 4,682.94 -15.02 (-0.32%)

DJI30 --- 35,619.25 +17.27 (+0.05%)

NASDAQ --- 15,854.76 -202.68 (-1.26%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,331.35 -11.81 (-0.50%)

The SP500 opened at 4712, up 9 points. It reached 4745, up 40, at 10:30, then fell, hitting 4700, off 3 points, at noon. It rose a bit until after 3:00, then fell hard in the last 45 minutes, to end within a fraction of the last minute lo for a moderate loss. This was an outside day with the hi higher by 33 points and the lo lower by 15. For now the 13 day EMA seems to be providing support.

This index hit a new all time hi on Friday, and I didn't notice – it was by less than 2 points over the 11/08 hi, and there was no intra-day hi. Today there was a new intra-day hi, but not a closing hi

The DJI 30 opened at 35631, up 29, and reached 35916, an intermediate hi, before noon. It then meandered around 35620 until 2:30, when it rose to the day's hi of 35930, up 328, after 3:00. It fell hard in the last 45 minutes, giving up 310 points to finish with a minuscule gain. That was enough to preserve a clearly up day by 51 and 60 points. The index stayed above its 55 day EMA.

The NASDAQ opened at 16121, up 63 points, and reached its hi, 16212, before 10:30. It then fell in two downward swoops, ending first at noon, then moments before the close. This was an outside day by the large margins of 91 points at the top and 166 at the bottom. This resulted in a new intra-day hi, but a large loss at the close. The 13 day EMA might be support, for now.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2343, up a half point, and reached 2370, the hi, up 26, after 1:30. It also fell in two hard steps down, to end at the day's lo for a substantial loss. This is an outside day by 7 points at the top and 10 at the bottom. The index is above its 55 day EMA, but has recoiled badly from its 11/08 all time hi.

This would have been a decent day until everything went to hell in the last 45 minutes.

SP500 Closings -
11/22/19 - 3110
11/20/20 - 3558
10/22/21 - 4545
11/22/21 - 4683

NYSE Internals
A/D = 1541/1842 = 0.84
A/D Vol = 1.25
New Hi/Lo = 135/129 = 1/05




Friday, November 27, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,594.62-106.84 (-2.27%)

DJI30    ---  34,899.34-905.04 (-2.53%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,491.66-353.57 (-2.23%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,245.94-85.52 (-3.67%)

This was a rough session.  Every index fell hard at the opening, then ran more or less sideways until the early close at 1:30.  

Weekly Changes -
SP500  -2.31%
DJI 30  -1.97
NASDAQ  -3.52%
Russell 2000 -4.15%

SP500 Closings -
11/26/19 - 3141
11/25/20 - 3630
10/22/21 - 4575
11/26/21 - 4595

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 469/2657 = 0.18
A/D Vol = 0.10
New Hi/Lo = 20/202 = 0.10





















Monday, November 15, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of November 15, 2021

Monday, November 15, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close --- 4,682.80  -0.05 (-0.00%)

DJI30 --- 36,087.45   -12.86 (-0.04%)

NASDAQ --- 15,853.85    -7.11 (-0.04%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,400.93    -10.84 (-0.45%)

The SP500 opened at 4689, up 6 points, and hit 4697, the hi, up 15, a few minutes later. It dropped to 4673, the low at 11:45. It snaked around 4680 – the neutral point, the rest of the day to end flat. The hi was up by 9 points, and the lo by 22, but the 0.05 point loss prevented a clearly up day.

The DJI30 opened at 36129, up 29 points. It hit 36236, the hi, up 136, before 11:00, then slumped the rest of the day, hitting the lo, 36032, off 69, at 3:45. The hi and lo were up by 88 and 97 points, respectively; but the 13 point loss prevented a clearly up day.

The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 41 points, and rose to 15918, up 57. It fell to 15778, the lo, before 12:30. From there it was an irregular rise into the close. The hi and lo were higher by 44 and 73 points. Again a tiny closing loss prevented a clearly up day.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2412 and immediately rose to 2021, the hi, up 9. It rose to 2400 before 1:30, then went mostly sideways into the close, for the day's only notable loss. It had an outside day by 4 points at the top and 13 at the bottom.

This still looks like a developing 4th wave, and will continue to do so until the SP500 convincingly tops the 11/05 hi at 4718. Elliot Wave analyst Avi Gilbert defines 4550 as a critical support level. I've raised the red support line to that level on the chart. This is pretty close to 4566 which I mentioned last week as a possible retracement minimum, and to 4546, the 9/02 local hi. If it dips lower, we'll have to reconsider.

SP500 Closings -
11/15/19 - 3120
11/13/20 - 3585
10/15/21 - 4471
11/15/21 - 4683

NYSE Internals
A/D = 1531/1817 = 0.84
A/D Vol = 1.13
New Hi/Lo = 165/44 = 3.75




Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,700.90   +18.10 (+0.39%)

DJI30    ---  36,142.22   +54.77 (+0.15%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,973.86   +120.01 (+0.76%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,405.02   +4.09 (+0.17%)

The SP500 opened at 4679, the day's lo, off 3 points.  It climbed pretty steadily to 4715, the hi, after 2:00, then slumped into the close for a modest gain.  This is a clearly up day by 18 and 7 points.   At the hi, it was less than 4 points below the 11/05 all time intra-day hi, and at the close only a point under the 11/08 all time hi.

The DJI 30 followed a similar, but not identical path.  It opened at 36076, off 11 points.  It reached 36317, up 229, at 12:45, then slid the rest of the day, falling especially hard in the last half hour, to close with a small gain. This was a clearly up day by 81 and 44 points, but the afternoon was all downhill.  It remains below the 11/08 all time highs by 249 pints intra-day and 290 at the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15840, off 14 points, and climbed steadily, reaching 15975 after 1:00.  From there it want mostly sideways, hitting 15990, the hi at 3:45, for the day's strongest performance.  This is a clearly up day by 71 and 47 points. It is below the 11/05 intra-day hi by 64 points and the 11/08 closing hi by 9.

The Russell 2000 opened at at 2400, off a fraction, and quickly dropped to 2387, off 14 points.  It then climbed, reaching positive territory at noon.  It reached 2408, the hi, after 2:30, and slid into the close.  Contra the 4 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 13 and 6 points, respectively.  It remains under the 8/05 highs by 51 points intra-day and 38 at the close.

It's possible that wave 4 is still unfolding,with more downside action to follow, and we can't ignore that possibility.  But  now it seems more likely to me that the early sub-waves of wave five up might have started.  If this is correct, we should be seeing new highs in the next few days, with further advances to follow soon after. 

SP500 Closings -
11/15/19 - 3120
11/16/20 - 3627
10/15/21 - 4471
11/16/21 - 4701

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1500/1810 = 0.83
A/D Vol = 0.65
New Hi/Lo = 172/56 = 3.07




Wednesday, November 16, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,688.67   -12.23 (-0.26%)

DJI30    ---  35,931.05   -211.17 (-0.58%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,921.57   -52.28 (-0.33%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,377.01   -28.02 (-1.16%)

The SP500 opened up a point at 4702, the day's hi.  It zig-zagged all day, hitting 4684, the lo, before 10:00.  It touched the hi again at noon, and came close to the lo again a half hour later. It  then galumphed into the close, ending on a down tic and a volume surge.  This was an inside day by 13 points at the top and 5 at the bottom

The DJI 30 opened at 36160, the day's hi, up 17 points.  It dropped to 35940 at 12:30 then moved sideways the rest of the day, hitting 35909, the lo, at 2:30.  It also dropped in the waning minutes on a volume surge.  This was a clearly down day by 157 and a67 points.

The NASDAQ opened flat at 15974 and reached 15999, the hi, up 16, at noon.  It dropped to 15909, the lo, an hour later.  From there it rumbled along into the close.  Contra the loss, the hi and lo were higher by 9 and 84 points.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2404 off less than a point.  It fell to 2369, the lo, at 12:30, From there it was a jagged climb to the close for the day's biggest loss.  It was a clearly down day by 4 and 17 points.

All this cast doubt on my suggestion that wave 5 up is in progress.  While that is still possible, it could also be that wave 4 is still unfolding.  A third possibility is that the indexes have topped, and a wave down has begun.  This is confusing.  I hope the next few days provide some clarity.

SP500 Closings -
11/15/19 - 3120
11/16/20 - 3610
10/15/21 - 4471
11/16/21 - 4689

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1118/2227 = 0.50
A/D Vol = 0.41
New Hi/Lo = 106/82 = 1.29



Thursday, November 18, 2021

YellowArrow Sideways

SP500 at the close  ---   4,704.54   +15.87 (+0.34%)

DJI30    ---  35,870.95   -60.10 (-0.17%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,993.71   +72.14 (+0.45%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,363.59   -13.42 (-0.56%)

The SP500 opened at 4701, up 12 points, and fell to 4673, the lo, off 16 before 10:30.  From noon on it wound around 4700, ending on a small up-tick and a volume surge, for a modest gain.  This was an outside day by 7 points at the top and 12 on the bottom.  This is ambiguous, pointing nowhere.  But it does not negate the bullish case.

The DJI30 opened at 35902, off 29, and dropped to 35654, the lo, before 10:30.  It then wound around 35875 from noon on, ending with a small loss.  This was a clearly down day by 207 and 255 points.  I can't get a convincing wave count on this chart, so I won't comment on the retracement level.  The recent day's motion is clearly down, but the bullish case is not yet refuted.

The NASDAQ opened at 15973, up 52 points, and dropped to 15849, the lo, off 72 points, before 10:30.  It wound around 15975 from noon on, ending on a small down tic and a volume surge.  it had an outside day by 12 points at the top and 61 at the bottom

The Russell 2000 opened at 2378, up a fraction, and reached 2386, the hi, up 9, a few minutes later.  It dropped to 2349, the lo, off 28, at 10:30.  It wound around 2360 the rest of the day, then closed on a slight rise for the days largest loss.  It had a clearly down day by 18 and 21 points.  If I have identifieded the limits correctly, today's lo is a 53% retracement.   It looks bad on today's graph, but is not far off of a typical 50%, and still has some room to fall without reaching 63%, the expected maximum loss  So the bullish case still has not been refuted.  But tother possibilities deserve consideration.

Two outside sessions with gains along with two clearly down sessions only muddy the water.  The ambiguity is frustrating, but the market is going to do what the market is going to do.  Maybe we'll have better luck tomorrow.

SP500 Closings -
11/15/19 - 3120
11/16/20 - 3610
10/15/21 - 4471
11/16/21 - 4689

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1169/2197 = 0.53
A/D Vol = 0.41
New Hi/Lo = 118/108 = 1.09



Friday, November 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,697.96    -6.58 (-0.14%)

DJI30    ---  35,601.98   -268.97 (-0.75%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   16,057.44   +63.73 (+0.40%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,343.16   -20.43 (-0.86%)

The SP500 opened at 4708, up 4 points and made a jagged climb to 4711, the hi, after 12:30.  It then dropped quickly to 4697, the lo, an hour later.  It recovered to 4707 before 2:30, then fell again, almost to the lo, a few minutes before closing with a small loss. However, the hi and lo were up by 2 and 24 points.

The DJI opened at 35879, up 8 points, and immediately started falling, It reached 35610, off 261, after 10:00, then went mostly sideways, It reached 35555, the lo, after 1:30, then rolled into the close, for a substantial loss.  This was a clearly down day by 74 and 99 points..

The NASDAQ opened at 16042, up 48 points, and rose to 16121, up 127, after11:00.  It then dropped to 16017, the lo, after 1:30.  After a rise to 16085 before 2:30, it slumped into the close for a substantial gain.    This was a clearly up day by 110 and 164 points.  It achieved a new all time hi on Thursday, and exceeded that by 64 on Friday.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2362, the hi, off 1 point.  It quickly dropped to 2345, then stayed above that level until after 3:30, when it dropped into the close, just a point and a half above and a few moments after the day's lo, 2342.  This was a substantial loss and a clearly down day by 24 and 7 points.

There was no pattern to this session.  On balance, it was negative.  Next week's trading will be abbreviated by the holiday, so I have no expectations.

Weekly changes -
SP500 +0.44%
DJI30 -1.38%
NASDAQ +1.24%
Russell 2000  -2.85%

SP500 Closings -
11/19/19 - 3120
11/19/20 - 3582
10/19/21 - 4520
11/19/21 - 4703

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1164/2184 = 0.53
A/D Vol = 0.35
New Hi/Lo = 93/112 = 0.83


















Monday, November 8, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of November 8, 2021

Monday, November 8, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close --- 4,701.70 +4.17 (+0.09%)

DJI30 --- 36,432.22 +104.27 (+0.29%)

NASDAQ --- 15,982.36 +10.77 (+0.07%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,442.74+5.66 (+0.23%)

The SP500 opened at 4701, up 4 points. It reached 4715, up 17, the hi a few minutes later, then had a choppy drop to 4694, off 3 points,the lo, at noon. It rose to 4706 at 2:25, the went mostly sideways into the close for a small gain. It had an inside day by 4 and 13 points. It missed an intra-day hi by 4 points, but reached a new closing hi by 4.

The DJI 30 opened at 36416, up 87 points. It followed a similar path but at its 1:00 low, 36334, it was up 6 points. It rose to 35415 at 2:30, and then went mostly sideways to the close for a modest gain that was the day's largest. It had a clearly up day by 81 and 144 points, and achieved new highs by 81 intra-day and 104 at the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15996, up 24 points. It had a much choppier day, hitting its hi, 16038, up 67, a few minutes later, and its lo, 15962, off 10, just 10 minutes before the close for a small gain. It had an inside day by 15 points at the top and 61 at the bottom. Ot missed an intra-day hi by 15, but made a new closing hi by 11.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2438, up just 22 points. I reached its hi, 2459, before 10:00, then went sideways until noon. It slumped to 3438, the lo, up just over a point at 2:30. From there it went mostly sideways into the close for a small gain. It had a clearly up day by 10 and 35 points, and achieved new intra-day and closing highs by 10 and 6 points.

Today's gains are not large, but each index achieved a new closing hi, and the lows were all higher than yesterday's. This seems like a positive continuation.

SP500 Closings -
11/08/19 - 3093
11/06/20 - 3509
10/08/21 - 4391
11/08/21 - 4697

NYSE Internals
A/D = 1839/1498 = 1.23
A/D Vol = 1.44
New Hi/Lo = 265/15 = 17.67


Tuesday, November 9, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,685.25   -16.45 (-0.35%)

DJI30    ---  36,319.98   -112.24 (-0.31%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,886.54  -95.81 (-0.60%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,425.18-   17.56 (-0.72%)

The SP500 opened at 4707, up 6, and reached the day's hi, a point higher a few minutes later.  It dropped to 4675 after 10:00, then moved mostly sideways, hitting 4671, the day's lo, off 31, after noon.  From 2:00 on it had a slight rise into the close for a modest loss.

The DJI 30 opened at 36405, off 28 points, and chopped down to its lo, 36173, off 259, after noon. Before 2:30 It started climbing, and finished with the day's smallest loss.

The NASDAQ opened at 16024, up 41, and within moments hit 16035, the hi, up 53.  It fell to the lo, 15843, off 140, after 10:00, then went mostly sideways the rest of the session.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2442.22, off a fraction, and immediately fell, hitting 2414, off 28 after 10:00.  
it rose to 2430 at 10:30, then went mostly sideways, all the way to the close, for the day's largest loss.

Today's pull back is probably counter-current sub-wave 4 of a 5 wave upward impulse, and could take a few days to play out.  I don't expect The SP500 to go below 4566.  However, a  deep retracement to 4414 is possible.  If it goes below that, I'm reading the waves incorrectly.

SP500 Closings -
11/08/19 - 3093
11/09/20 - 3551
10/08/21 - 4391
11/08921 - 4681

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1566/1746 = 0.90
A/D Vol = 0.76
New Hi/Lo = 169/29 = 5.83



Wednesday, November 9, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,646.71.  -38.54 (-0.82%)

DJI30    ---  36,079.94  -240.04 (-0.66%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,622.71.  -263.84 (-1.66%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,389.58  -37.71 (-1.55%)

No time - nor much need - for the details today.  The indexes all started near neutral, slumped until about 2:45, then rose slightly into their respective closes for varying degree of loss. If I'm reading it right, this is a 4th wave counter-current move, and will last a few days before the indexes go on to new highs in wave 5.

SP500 Closings -
11/08/19 - 3093
11/09/20 - 3546
10/08/21 - 4391
11/08921 - 4647

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1068/2229 = 0.48
A/D Vol = 0.63
New Hi/Lo = 143/38 = 3,76

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close  ---   4,649.27   +2.56 (+0.06%)

DJI30    ---  35,921.23   -158.71 (-0.44%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,704.28   +81.58 (+0.52%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,409.14   +19.56 (+0.82%)

The SP500 opened at 4659, up 13 points.  It had a very choppy session, reaching the hi, 4665, up 18, after 11:30 and the lo, 3638, up 2, just before the close.  After touching near the lo after noon and 1:00 it rose until after 2:30, then slumped into the close with a last minute volume surge, for a minuscule gain.  It was an inside day by 20 points at the top and 2 ½ at the bottom.  It looks like the index found support at the 13 day EMA, but nothing encouraging happened here.

The DJI opened at 36039, off 41 points, quickly jumped up to 36108, up 28, then fell to 35930, off 150, a few moments later.  It ran sideways until 1:00, then slowly slid into the close for a moderate loss.  It slightly pierced the 13 day EMA level.  It had a clearly down day by 238 points at the top and 94 at the bottom

The NASDAQ opened at 15751, up 129 points, and reached it hi, 15768, up 145 before 10:00.  It went mostly sideways until after 2:30 when it fell hard to 15696, the lo, up 73, then limped into the close for a modest gain.  This was an inside day by 99 points at the top and 152 at the bottom.  There might have been support at the 13 day EMA.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2391, up a fraction, the day's lo. It climbed to 2419, the hi, up 29 at 12:45, then slowly slumped the rest of the day, finishing with a robust gain.  There was support just about at the 13 day EMA.  It had an inside day by 10 points at either end.

Each index moved in a different way, with mixed results. All but the Russell ended the day below its start.  But even it fell in the afternoon.  I see this as as sub-subwaves of sub wave 4 down unfolding. This could play out over a few more days, followed by wave 5 up to new highs.  If I'm reading it right.

SP500 Closings -
11/11/19 - 3087
11/11/20 - 3573
10/11/21 - 4361
11/11/21 - 4649

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1887/1437 = 1.31
A/D Vol = 1.94
New Hi/Lo = 103/51 = 2.02


Greenish Arrow Upish

SP500 at the close  ---   4,682.85   +33.58 (+0.72%)

DJI30    ---  36,100.31   +179.08 (+0.50%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,860.96   +156.68 (+1.00%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,411.78   +2.63 (+0.11%)

The SP500 opened at 4655, up 6 points, and hit 4651, the lo, off 1.5 point a few minutes later.  From noon on it went sideways near 4675, hitting 4688, the hi after 3:30. This was a clearly up day by 24 points at the top and 2 at the bottom.

The DJI30 opened at 35964, up 43 points, and dropped to 35935, the lo, up 13 after 10:00.  It ran  mostly sideways around 36075 until after 3:30 when it rose to 36148, the hi, then slid into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 39 and 19 points.

The NASDAQ opened at 15753, off 108, and dropped to 15725, the lo, before 10:00.  It ran mostly sideways around 15840 until after 3:30, when it rose to 15875  after 3:30, then slid into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 107 points at the top and 10 at the bottom.   

The Russell 2000 opened at 2409, up a fraction, rose to 2417, up 5, the hi at 9:45. It wandered close to neutral until 3:00, rose near the hi after 3:30, then slumped into the close.  This was an inside day by 2 points at the top and 15 at the bottom.

All the indexes seem to have found at least temporary resistance at their respective 13 day EMAs.  There were some solid gains, but unless and until the indexes exceed Monday's highs, my position is that they are all in counter-current 4th waves.  The shape of the recent curve in the DJI chart below is typical of the other indexes.
 
Weekly Changes -
SP500  - 0.31%
DJI 30  - 0.63%
NASDAQ  -0.60%
Russel 2000  -1.04%

SP500 Closings -
11/12/19 - 3092
11/12/20 - 3537
10/12/21 - 4351
11/12/21 - 4683

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1817/1539 = 1.18
A/D Vol = 1.12
New Hi/Lo = 143/41 = 3.49


















Monday, November 1, 2021

Taking Stock - Week off November 1, 2021

Monday, November 1, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close --- 4,613.67 +8.29 (+0.18%)

DJI30 --- 35,913.84+94.28 (+0.26%)

NASDAQ --- 15,595.92+97.53 (+0.63%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,358.12 +60.93 (+2.65%)

The SP500 opened at 4611, up 5 points, and quickly rose to 4620, up 15. It then fell, bottoming at 4596, off 10 and the day's lo. After that it recovered, reaching 4613 at 1:00, but fell to the lo again at 2:15. Then it rose again into the close, on an up-tick and a volume surge. This is a clearly up day by 12 and 27 points, and new all time highs by 12 points intra-day and 8 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 35834, up 14, and slithered in the same way, but only touched red once at the 11:00 lo of 35798, off 22. It had a clearly up day by 157 and 165 points. It reached a new all time intra-day hi by 117 points and at the close by 94.

The NASDAQ opened at 15541, up 43. It touched red briefly at 10:00, reached an intermediate hi after 1:00, then dropped to an intermediate lo at 2:15. From there it rose steadily to close at the day's hi. It had a clearly up by 95 and 145 points. It also had new all time highs by 52 points intra-day and 50 at the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2298, up less than a point. It climbed pretty steadily all day, ending with an unusually large 2.65% gain. It was a clearly up day by 56 and 8 points. It achieved new local highs by 37 points intra-day and 45 at the close. Also the Index is now less than 2 points under the 3/15 all time highs.

This was a very strong day. So there is no reason to think anything downside is coming soon. But I'm still a bit leery.

SP500 Closings -
11/01/19 - 3067
10/30/20 - 3270
10/01/21 - 4357
11/01/21 – 4614

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2512/853 = 2.94
A/D Vol = 4.06
New Hi/Lo = 209/20 = 10.45


Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,630.65   +16.98 (+0.37%)

DJI30    ---  36,052.63   +138.79 (+0.39%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,649.60  +53.69 (+0.34%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,361.86   +3.73 (+0.16%)

The SP500 started flat then increased until it peaked at 11:45.  It slumped for abut a half hour, then ran mostly sideways into the close.  It had a clearly up day by 15 and 18 points.  This resulted in more new all time highs: 15 points intra-day and 17 at the close.

The DJI did about the same, with a brief excursion into negative territory before 10:00.  It had a clearly up day by 79 and 86 points. It also achieved new all time highs: 79 points intra-day and 139 at the close.  Remember that 1999 book “DOW 36000” That looked like a sad joke in 2001 and again in 2009?  Well, 22 years later we finally got there, with 36009.74 at yesterday's hi, and 36052.63 at today's close.  Yay, hooray!  All it took was a whole lot of time.

The NASDAQ started slightly negative, but quickly went positive and went mostly sideways during the afternoon.     This was the NASDAQ's 4th consecutive day with all time intra-day and closing highs, this time by 58 and 54 points.  Of course it was a clearly up day, by those same margins.

The Russell 2000 started negative and meandered around neutral the rest of the day, finishing with a small gain.  But this small gain in enough to reach all time new highs: by 3.38 points intra-day and 1.69 point at the close.
 
These were not huge gains, and the NYSE internals were mediocre. I'm not a great wave reader, but it looks like this a third wave in progress, at some small level of trend. But I'd expect stronger internal – like yesterday's – if that were the case.  We'll see how it plays out. 

 SP500 Closings -
11/01/19 - 3067
11/02/20 - 3310
10/01/21 - 4357
11/01/21 – 4631

NYSE Internals – Much weaker than yesterday
A/D = 1527/1831 = 0.84
A/D Vol = 0.68
New Hi/Lo = 194/33 = 5.88



Wednesday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,660.57   +29.92 (+0.65%)

DJI30    ---  36,157.58   +104.95 (+0.29%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,811.58   +161.98 (+1.04%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,404.17   +42.32 (+1.79%)

The SP500 started dead even, then ran less than 10 points negative until 2:00 when it started to rise, leading again to a clearly up day and to new all time highs by 20 points intra-day and 23 at the close.

The DJI started slightly positive, immediately dropped into the red, and slumped to a lo at 2:00 when it suddenly started climbing.  It also had a clearly up day and new all time highs by 90 points intra-say and 105 at the close

The NASDAQ started slightly positive then quickly dropped slightly red.  It ran just below the neutral line until 2:00, when it started to rise, reaching new all time highs by the stunning margins of 165 intra-day and 162 at the close. 

The Russell 2000 started flat and rose until 11:00.  It slid a bit until 2:00 when it also started climbing. It also reached new highs by 53 points intra-day and 89 at the close

Today, the Fed announced that it will start tapering at some unspecified date, but not increase interest rates any time soon, since inflation is still viewed as transitory.  It seems that speculators were biding their time until the Fed announcement, which evidently was taken as good news. So – the bull proceeds unabated.

For now.

SP500 Closings -
11/01/19 - 3067
11/02/20 - 3369
10/01/21 - 4357
11/01/21 - 4653

NYSE Internals – Much weaker than yesterday
A/D = 2225/1107 = 2.01
A/D Vol = 2.21
New Hi/Lo = 253/21 = 12.05


Thursday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,680.06   +19.49 (+0.42%)

DJI30    ---  36,124.23   -33.35 (-0.09%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,940.31   +128.72 (+0.81%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,402.43.  -1.85 (-0.08%)

The SP500 started at 4663, 9 points positive then was above that the whole day.  It hit the day's hi, 4683, twice around 10:30.  It spent most of the day twisting around 4670, and rose into the close after 3:30.  This was a clearly up day by 28 and 41 points, with new all time highs by 28 points intra-day and 27 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 26107, off 50, and spent the entire day in the red.  It slipped, rose the fell again hitting 35986, the lo, after 2:30.  Then it rose sharply, but ended slightly short of a gain.  This was an inside day by  11 points at the top and 95 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ opened at 15850, up 38 points, and never saw red.  With some wiggles, it went mostly sideways the rest of the day. This was a clearly up day by 145 and 211 points, and resulted in new highs by 145 intra-day and 129 at the close.

After the recent dramatic rises, the Russell 2000 was ho-hum today.  It started at 2405, off 3 points, then rose to 2424, the hi, up 16 at 10:15.  It dropped until 11:30, then spent the rest of the day moving sideways, slightly below neutral, to end with a minute loss.  This was a mixed day, with the hi higher by 10 points, and the lo higher by 50 to counter the loss at the end.

So, two indexes reached new highs, and the two that didn't were only slightly off and had substantially higher lows.  This might be due to waves working out at very lo levels of trend.  On balance, i'm seeing this as a positive day.  We'll need confirmation tomorrow.

SP500 Closings -
11/04/19 - 3078
11/04/20 - 3443
10/04/21 - 4300
11/04/21 - 4680

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 1471/1831 = 0.80
A/D Vol = .42
New Hi/Lo = 255/29 = 8.79


Friday, November 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,697.53   +17.47 (+0.37%)

DJI30    ---  36,327.95   +203.72 (+0.56%)
 
NASDAQ   ---   15,971.59   +31.28 (+0.20%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,437.08   +34.65 (+1.44%)

The SP500 opened at 36107, up 19 points, and rose to 4719, the day's hi, up 38, after 10:00.  It sunk to 4681, the lo, up 1 point at 1:30.  It rose until after 2:00, then moved sideways into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 36 and 19 points.  There were new all time highs by 36 points intra-day and 17 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 36269, up 145 points.  It rose to 36485, the hi, up 361 after 10:00, then slid to 36190, the lo, up 66, at 1:30.  It rose until 2:15 then ran sideways into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 317 and 204 points.  The Index also achieved new highs by 306 points intra-day and 170 at the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 16004, up 63 points, and rose to its hi, 16053, up 113, after 10:00.  It dropped to the day's lo, 15901, off 40 points at 1:30, rose until 2:15, then went sideways into the close.  This is a clearly up day by 87 and 73 points, and the Index achieved new all time highs by 87 points intra-day and 31 at the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2403, the day's lo up 1 point, and reached 2449, the hi, up 47 before 11:30.  It fell near the lo at 1:45, then had a choppy rise into the close for the day's biggest gain.  It had a clearly up day by25 and 8 points, and reached new all time highs by 25 points intra-day and 111 [!] at the close.

There can be very little doubt now that we are seeing third wave advances on all the indexes, at some level of trend.  If this is correct, a 4th wave decline will follow, for perhaps a 50% retracement of the 3rd wave gain [just as a guess.]  After that there will be a 5th wave up, including another string of new highs.  When that is complete, a larger scale correction will occur. That is only one possibility – but right now it looks like the most likely one.

Weekly changes -
SP500  +2.00%
DJI 30  +1.42%
NASDAQ   +3.05%
Russell 2000  +6.09% [!}

SP500 Closings -
11/05/19 - 3075
11/05/20 - 3510
10/05/21 - 4346
11/05/21 - 4697

NYSE Internals – 
A/D = 2229/1131 = 1.97
A/D Vol = 2.04
New Hi/Lo = 290/24 = 12.08