Ohio and Florida Don't Matter

Playing around at 270towin.com yesterday, I discovered a scenario where Obama would win the EC without winning either Ohio or Florida.  You can see the map view at this link.  I've left OH and FLA unclaimed, along with NV, CO, IA, NC, and NH.  At that point, BHO has 260 EV, and only needs 10 more.  This would involve the very uncertain prospect of carrying VA.

Given all of that, any two of NV, CO, IA or NH would give BHO the victory.  Alternatively, NC could do it, all on it's lonesome.  The narrowest win would be to get NV and NH, landing on exactly 270.

For Romney to eke out a victory, he would have to almost run the table, taking FLA, OH, NC AND all but 1 of the other in-play states.

As it turned out, Obama got VA by 50.8 to 47.8 and swept all of NV, CO, IA and NH, while Romney took NC by the close margin of 50.6 to 48.4.

As it stands now, with FLA still up for grabs, Obama has 303 EV and retains the presidency.  If FLA comes in, his EV total will be 332.

He also takes the popular vote by 50.3 to 48.1, a margin of 2.2 points.

For an election in which old white male demographics are supposedly the Republicans last refuge, this is distressingly close.

UPDATE: As it turned out, and as Johnathon Bernstein pointed out, Obama would have won even without VA.  Because CO + NH = 13 = VA, carrying CO and NH is another route to exactly 270, even without OH, FLA, VA, and NC.

Update 2:  Actually, the number in update 1 should be 272.  Math is hard.  Especialy before breakfast after a short night.

Sunday Music Blogging

Brandi Carlile and the twins at the Mt. Baker Theater, Bellingham, WA. March 19, 2010.



If you have come to expect anything from my Sunday Music offerings, it would certainly not be this.

I'll admit that I never heard of Brandi Carlile or this song until it was featured in this NPR All Things Considered spot.

Then, it became pretty special.




Enjoy.

I Probably Wasn't Going To Do This Anyway . . .

I've pretty much outgrown my need for an adrenaline rush.  Not so this cute Aussie.

I couldn't find any way to imbed the vid.  Please follow this link into crocodile infested waters.

What I'm Thankful For

First off for my family - my lovely wife, who is my greatest supporter, biggest fan, and the love of my life; for our offspring, who gave me an anchor and enriched my life in more ways than they can possibly know; for our 11 smart, talented and beautiful grandchildren, who have been bringing us joy for a decade and a half, and give me hope for our future; for my mom, always there for me in a time of need, and still going strong at 90, and my sister, who brings us both strength; for nephews, nieces, cousins, and in-laws, who I don't get to see as often as I would like.

I love and appreciate you all.

I'm thankful for free speech, and the opportunity to exercise it that this blog provides; and for anyone who stops by to read, especially if you leave a comment.

I am very fortunate to have grown up where and when I did, as part of the only generation for whom the American Dream was a realistic expectation.  I'm thankful for the New Deal, that made America great, and the Great Society, which greatly reduced poverty, and moved us in the direction of equality and opportunity for all. I'm thankful for the opportunities I had: affordable education, a robust economy so I could find employment in young adulthood that was more than just a job; for American industry that gave me a career and a pension, for Social Security that allows me to have a comfortable retirement.

In my youth, my father often tried to impress on me how lucky I was to have all of these dreams, opportunities and expectations.  I did not get it then, but I do now.  We bumped heads - a lot - and I can't say it was all my fault.  But he gave me perspectives I otherwise would not have known, a foundation in duty and responsibility, a passion for education, and a healthy skepticism.

Dad's been gone a long time.  Our relationship was never easy, but he did a lot for me.  Rest easy, dad.  I'm thankful for you, too.

And, of course, for music, the great natural anti-depressant; along with all my musical friends and fellow noise-makers.

Oh - can't forget all my friends at the Crossword Corner.

Peace, love and joy to all on this Thanksgiving day.

Where Have I Been?

In case you

1) give a rip
2) don't have access to my cell phone.

here is a lousy pic I took with the phone's camera function.

i

So, as you can plainly see, I was in a largish room with Wayne Bergeron and some other cats.  This was rehearsal for our performance last Monday.

Wayne is an amazing musician and a VERY cool guy.  It was a thrill and real treat to perform with him.

Here is one of the songs we did.  There are a lot of YouTube vids of Wayne performing this sweet minor blues by Tom Kubis with various groups.

UPDATE:  Full disclosure - in case it is not perfectly clear, this is NOT the group I play with.

High Clouds and a Good Chance of Wayne Tonight

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Honor Thy Father

And a BIG H/T to Steve at Asymptosis for recognizing my dad's wisdom in this quote.

"Figures might not lie, but liars sure know how to figure"

RIP, dad. It's been a long, long time.

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Bowl Game Theology

My theory that the twin humiliating losses suffered by Michigan and Michigan State in their respective bowl games was the almighty sky-deity punishing us for electing a Republican governor was put to a severe test in last night's Sugar Bowl.  (OK - if you contend that U of M has no business even being in a bowl game, you'll get no argument from me, but -- that State game -- OUCH!)

You see, Ohio also voted in a new Republican governor.  And not just any old Rethug - this is former congressman John Kasich, who spent his years nominally outside of government as a Faux Noise commentator, and from 2001-2008 was "employed by Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse precipitated the financial system collapse of 2008."   The exploits of job-exporting Rick Snyder pale in comparison.

You'd think that if anything deserves a 52-14 smack-down at the cloven hooves of an SEC opponent, this would be it.   But in the end the Buckeyes managed to cling to a razor(back) thin 31-26 victory.


In attempting to rationalize this outcome, I've come up with two not-mutually-exclusive theories.

1)  The sequence of early success and later dismay, followed by something close to despair and then near-cardiac arrest, watching the Razorbacks bore their way out of a 28-7 trough; coupled with the knowledge that 4 offensive stars plus the unlikely last-minute defensive hero of last night's game face suspension for committing the crime of free-market capitalism was punishment enough.   (Lesson: either graduate or lose academic eligibility first, sell the gold pants later.)

2)  This one to me is more convincing.  Consider the nature of the Arkansas loss - falling less than a touchdown short after a courageous second-half regrouping, with the prospect of a heroic come-from-behind victory tantalizingly dangled before their collective snout, then snatched away Lucy-like as they ultimately fell on their (razor)backs to defeat and disappointment.  

How can this be?  Not only did Ohio elect a particularly vile and heinous Rethug, Arkansas retained its incumbent Democratic Governor, Mike Beebe.  OTOH, they did split the ticket by electing Rethug Mark Darr as lieutenant governor.  But that can't possibly be enough.

Something must be truly rotten in the State of Arkansas to have pissed god off to this extent.  Could it be general corruption,  small town corruption,  police corruption, or public corruption?

We'll probably never know for sure.  The Lord moves in mysterious ways.  Not only did he allow the slaughter of the Arkansas hog, he's klling their birds and fish.
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Quote of the Day - Jesus H. Christ

In comments over at BT's place, bobby, who is "still looking for 'whirled peas'.. ;-)" asks:

I've always wondered.. what does the middle initial 'H' stand for??

Mimus Pauly has the answer.

The "H" stands for Hallmark -- because God cared enough to send the very best.

;-)

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Kellemes Karácsonyi Ünnepeket és Boldog Új Évet

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

(H/T to Kristen)

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Birthday Music Blogging

Who could ask for more?

Mellow Yellow Monday

It's always a good 

Time to have a good time; let's

Play cars on the hearth

Thanksgiving in Bumpaland

Abby made this to hang on our door.

Abby and Grandmom

Lauren

Josh

Nate

Em

Danny

Ryan

Alexa

The Back-scratch Brigade

Kids on the Couch

Just a part of why I am thankful and blessed!
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Sunday Music Blogging - 4th of July

I have no idea who Jaycie is, but this is pretty sweet.

Congratulations Blackhawks

A better outcome for them than the last time around.



Though I remain indifferent to the Hawks success, I appreciate it since the mere idea of seeing the odious Chris Pronger’s name on the cup is too horrible to contemplate.

H/T and more Michael Bérubé.

Counting

My visitor count since Oct 2, 2009 has now passed 10,000.

I fully suspect about 70% stumbled here looking for something they didn't find, following a Google link that picked up a stray word -  like sex or fairy - in one of my rambling rants.  There have been hundreds of hits because of a weird photo I linked to while blogging the Crossword puzzle.

Then there are my 10 11 followers - thanks kids - and the two or three loyal readers who stop by rather regularly.  Most of these are co-participants in memes that I indulge myself with.

The main purpose of this blog is actually to rant about politics and its evil twin, economics.  (Actually - both twins are evil - hence the rants, I guess.)  I get very little of the disagreement I seek, and most of that is easily dismissed.

Everything else is just for fun.

Thanks for playing along.

Shadow Shot Sunday - 5/02: Avast, me hearties!

Update:  I guess I should point out that this is at Disney's Vero Beach Resort.

What could be more fun!

Kids, water guns, slide, sunshine,

And a PIRATE SHIP!

Six Word Saturday

Granddaughter Em turned four -- party today!

Update:  Her brother NATE lost his first tooth last night.  He said, "It would be cool it the tooth fairy gave out gift cards!

Tooth Fairy Photo credit:  http://www.halloweenpartystore.com/Adult-Tooth-Fairy-Costume.php

Thought on playing the Third Trombone Part to Pictures at an Exhibition

One can hardly get any closer to heaven while keeping body and soul intact.

Update: This, of course, refers to Ravel's brilliant orchestration.
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Republicans, All Wrong, All the time, Pt 7.3: Once more, With Failing

All right, I put together another stupid cloud plot.  This time I'm indulging myself.  There can't be much point beyond that.

Here we have, once again, our favorite meaningless non-correlation plot.  Blue dots are points for Democratic presidents; red dots for Republicans.  X axis is Tax receipts/GDP in a given year, Y axis is GDP growth for that same year. Operating on the theory that if it's good enough for Econ. Prof. Lazear, it's good enough  for an old trombonist, let's twist this to serve our purposes. 

The red and blue horizontal lines are averages for the 36 years of Republican presidents and 24 years of Democratic presidents, respectively, from 1950 through 2009.  The slanty lines are best fits for Repug and Demo data sets. The vertical yellow line is Lazear's average of Tax/GDP, the magical 18%.

Note the Inconvenient 2009 point, labeled "What the Hell?!?  Low Tax/GDP along with NEGATIVE GDP Growth.  Don't you love it when a lie crashes and burns?

Some mathechistic stuff:

Demos

Avg.  GDP Growth   4.19%  St. Dev.  2.36

Slope of best fit line  -0.33  Correlation coefficient  -0.20

Repugs

Avg.  GDP Growth  2.77%  St. Dev   2.32

Slope of best fit line  -1.17  Correlation coefficient  -0.45

 Some iron-clad, indisputable conclusions:
1) The average growth of GDP under a Democratic President  is 1.4% higher than under a Republican.
2)  In 25 years, the level of GDP will be about 30% higher if we elect Democrats than it would be if we were  to be stupid and evil (I'm quoting O'Really here) enough to elect Republicans.
3) Never mind that the Standard Deviation of either data set is larger than the difference between their averages.  Shhhhhh!
4) Lazear's point is that high Taxes/GDP causes lower GDP growth.  Well, the correlation coefficient for Repugs is -0.44.  Sadly, this is a weak correlation, but it's more than twice as large as the -0.20 correlation coefficient for Demos.  So: if his premise has any validity (Remember, it doesn't) it is valid only when a Repug is in the White House.  When a Demo is in residence, the meaningless non-correlation, such as it isn't, crumbles.  Damn.
5) Oh.  Slopes.  For Repugs, -1.17.  For Demos, -0.33.   That's right, folks, the slope is 3.5 times greater with a Repug. See point 4.

Have I forgotten anything?  If so, please don't tell me.  I'm sick to the teeth of the whole damned thing.

UPDATE:  Here is part 7.2.


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Wednesday Poetry Blogging

SWEET MYSTERY

Where does love come from?
Are you inspired by a face,
A line curved or straight,
The sound of a laugh,
Or a sob,
The color of eyes?

What is the source of heat?
Is it the friction of skin,
The brush of a lip or finger,
Or a touch,
In a secret place?

What happens when souls meet?
Do they reach beyond space and time
In a spiral of yin and yang,
Chasing destiny,
The filling of voids?

What does your love mean to me?
Am I eased by your presence,
warmed by your smile,
Completed only
When our souls touch?

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