Monday, December 28, 2020
Green Arrow Up
DJi30 index at the close —- 30,403.97 +204.10 (+0.68%)
The Index opened at 30283, the lo for the day, up 83 points, and immediately shot up another hundred. By 10:00 it reached 30416, and 30526, a new intra-day hi at 10:30. It slid to 30380 at 1:30, rose back up to 30450 and hovered there from 2:15 for about an hour before sliding into the close.
The Santa Clause Rally happens in the last week of the old year into the first two trading days of the new. That extends from today until a week from tomorrow, and got off to a strong start. A gain of 0.68% is quite modest, but we got a new intra-day hi of 30256, and a new closing hi of 30404. This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo up by 316 and 184 points, respectively. The span was 242.
Ignoring the aberrant low on 12/21, the rising wedge is getting narrower. This can’t go on much longer, since the lines will cross in just a few days.
Today was a rather tepid session on the NYSE, with volume at about 3/4 of the last 6 week’s average, and decline volume greater than advance volume. The S&P500 and NASDAQ were also up today, but the Russell 2000, crude oil, silver and gold all slipped.
My way of measuring momentum looks at time spans from 5 to 34 days. Today’s increase did next to nothing at the short end [which surprised me a little;] and the 34 day measure, which had been steadily rising to catch up, has now converged to head sideways with the five shorter ones. They set up more or less this way - though far less neatly - a couple of times in late ’19 and early ’20 before the final convergence from Feb. 21 to 24. After that came the crash.
Can’t say with any certainty that history will repeat itself only a few months later, but it does seem likely that some sort of a down-turn will materialize in the reasonably near future. Have I hedged that prediction enough? There are few sure things in the real world. So I’m very curious to see how this plays out.
% Changes -
Russell 2000 -0.38%
DJI30 Closings -
12/28/18 - 23062
01/02/20 - 28869
11/27/20 - 29910
12/28/20 - 30404
NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1658/1509 = 1.10
A/D Vol = 0.92
New Hi/Lo = 300/6 = 50
Tuesday, December 29, 2020