Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor nor stock market professional; nor am I in any way qualified to make recommendations. I’m just an old man with curiosity, an attitude and an internet connection. I realized long ago that I see the world differently from most people, and l am looking at these things for my own amusement and amazement. Maybe you will be amused, as well.
Monday November 2, 2020
Green Arrow Up
DJI30 Index at the close —- 26,924.92 +423.32 (+1.60%
The index opened at 26691, up 190 points, and immediate shot up to 26851. After a brief slide back to 26730, It hit the day’s hi of 27043, up 541 at about 10:20. It dropped to 26830 before 11:30, rose to 26975 at 11:45, then slowly dropped to a minimum around 26700 around 2:00. It rose again, topping at about 26960 at 3:30. From there it was a drop to 26815, and a 110 point leap to the close in the last few minutes.
This is a clearly up day with the hi, lo, and close higher by 404, 548 and 423 points respectively. The lo to hi spread was 352. An increase of 423 points looks impressive - at first. But in the context of a drop of almost 2300 points from the 10/23 hi it really isn’t. Further, the early day hi was up 542 points, but the next two local highs were lower. This sequence looks to be counter-current, with the major thrust still down.
The rise today is no surprise. Nothing moves in a straight line I thought this might happen last Friday, and the 295 point surge in the last few minutes was the beginning of the rally that lasted into this morning. The rest of today was lack-luster, but the counter-current move could continue into tomorrow, or even for several days. There’s quite a bit of room for movement on the upside, without changing the basic bearish picture.
There might be robust resistance in the low 27000s. And there looks to be a support range between 26000 and 26500. This is a rather narrow range that will likely break soon, one way or the other. My guess is that the wave down continues.
DJI30 +1.6% Positive all day
SP500 +1.23% Positive all day
NASDAQ +0.42% Dipped into negative territory before rising into the close
Russell 2000 +1.96% Positive all day
DJI30 Closings -
11/02/18 - 25721
01/02/20 - 28869
10/02/20 - 27683
11/02/20 - 26925
A/D = 2275/797 = 2.85
A/D Vol = 5.43
New Hi/Lo = 32/29 = 1.10
Tuesday, November 3, Election Day 2020
Green Arrow Up
DJI30 Index at the close —- 27,480.03+554.98 (+2.06%)
The Index opened at 27139, the day’s lo, up 214 points, and immediately shot further to 27253, up 318. There was a steady, but less dramatic rise to 27600, before 10:30. After drawing back 100 points, it reached a hi of 27613 after 11:30. It then slid back to about 27350 at 2:00. From there it was a jagged rise to the day’s hi of 27640, up 715, before sliding 160 points in the last 6 minutes, giving up 22% of the day’s gain..
This is another clearly up day with the hi, lo and close up by 597, 447, and 555 points, respectively. The day’s span was 502.
Yesterday I said, “There’s quite a bit of room for movement on the upside, without changing the basic bearish picture.” Todays action used up quite a bit of it. If the 2293 point drop from the 28437 hi on 10/23 to the 26144 lo on 10/30 is a complete wave down at some level of trend, the rise to today’s top of 27640 is a 65.3% retracement, a bit over the Fibonacci target at 61.8%; and that is plenty to complete the following counter-current wave. But that is not definitive. This year has had some low probability moves, and it looks like the bulls are not eager to give in. So the next few days could be both interesting and volatile.
But the Index had three shots at the level where the 55 day EMA and round number resistance near 27600 converge. Resistance there bent a bit, but did not break. The sharp fall in the closing minutes might signal the end of this surge - Maybe.
% Changes - [each Index was Positive all day]DJI30 +2.06%
Russell 2000 +2.91%
DJI30 Closings -11/02/18 - 25721
01/02/20 - 28869
11/03/20 - 27480
NYSE Internals -A/D = 2480/585 = 4.24
A/D Vol = 4.77
New Hi/Lo = 62/13 = 5.79
For the first time in a week, the Index closed down, if only by a little. There was also a lower hi but a higher low, making this an inside day - and hence the yellow arrow. The range was 242 points, down a lot from yesterday’s 412, and the lowest since 10/13. The 10 day average is 506.