Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, May 10, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 10, 2021

Monday, May 10, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways.

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,742.82 -34.94 (-0.10%)

The index opened at 34784, up 8 points. And immediately shot up to 34925. It then climbed more slowly reaching 35092, up 314, before noon. From there, the price slumped to 35000 at 2:15, then dropped to 34870, up only 92, in less than 10 minutes. It then went mostly sideways until 3:45 when it dropped 127 points into the close.

Only the late drop kept this from being a clearly up day. The hi and lo were up by 280 and 277 points, respectively. This strange session provided a new intra-day hi – the 4th such in a row - by 280 points. The SP500 touched green briefly mid-day, but finished off more than a percent. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were red all day, and both finished off more than 2.5%. Every index took a large drop at 2:15, though they were all heading lower anyway.

This is a terrible start to the week, especially coming off Friday's all time highs in the DJI and SP500 But both indexes are still well above their support levels. Meanwhile, the Russell has been in a up-trend since its 3/25 lo. Today's lo landed right on the channel bottom. Similarly, the NASDAQ has been in a up-trend defined by its 3/05 and 5/06 lows. Sadly, though, today's lo dropped below that channel boundary. It's too early to say if that channel is invalidated, or if the border needs to be adjusted. The next few days should clarify that point.

It surprised me to discover that each of the indexes is moving within [or close to] an up-slanting channel. Each index has a different starting date, and different behavior within its channel. I've included it on today's DJI chart to illustrate. So, despite today's dismal performances, the overall outlook is not bleak – yet. As long as the support levels and channels hold, we're doing OK.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.10%
SP500 1.04%
NASDAQ -2.55%
Russell -2.59%

DJI Closings -
5/10/19 – 25942.37
5/08/20 - 24331
4/09/21 - 33801
5/07/21 – 34743

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1104/2247 = 0.49
A/D Vol = 0.37
New Hi/Lo = 713/52 = 13.71

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 3, 2021

Monday, May 3, 2021

Green Arrow Up 

DJI30 Index at the close ---  34,113.23 +238.38 (+0.70%)

The Index opened at 33905, up 30, and immediately shot up to 34074, up 199. It continued up, reaching a hi of 34216 at 10:00. It stayed above 34130 until 3:48, and hit a new hi of 34221 at 11:45. In the last few minutes it slid 17 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 232, and 119 points, respectively. This action missed new all-time intra-day and closing highs by 36 and and 24 points respectively.

Every index followed a different path today, with the DJI leading the pack and only the NASDAQ finishing negative. The Russell stayed below last weeks local hi, and might still be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.70
SP500 +0.27
NASDAQ -0.48
Russell +0.45

DJI Closings -

5/03/19 - 26505
5/04/20 - 23750
4/01/21 - 33153
5/03/21 - 34113

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2311/1090 = 2.12
A/D Vol = 2.19
New Hi/Lo = 374/18 = 20.78

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Monday, April 26, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 26, 2021

Monday, April 26, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,981.57   -61.92 (-0.18%)

The Index opened at 34044, up a fraction of a point, and quickly rose to 34149, up 105.  It then abruptly fell to 34090, the beginning of a jagged drop to 34000 after 1:30.  It ran slightly up to 34045 at 3:20, when it again fell abruptly to 33941, just over 100 points, at 3:30. It bounced up to 34115, then staggered into the close, for a 0.18% loss.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 9 points and the lo higher by 228 - the latter being a positive on a day that was mostly down hill.  The span was a modest 207 points. 

All the other indexes were up. The SP500 rose slightly in the morning, then chopped sideways the rest of the day.  On Friday it set a new intra-day hi at 4194.17, but missed a new closing hi by 5 points.  Today it reached a new intra-day hi by 0.02 points, and a new closing hi at 4187.62 by 2.15 points, 0.05%.  But, a hi is a hi, I guess.

The Russell 2000 rose until noon, then coasted sideways. It is 2.63% under its 3/15 all time closing hi, and might still be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

The NASDAQ rose until 3:30, then slid a bit into its close.  On 4/16 it came within 0.31% of a new closing high.  It faltered a bit last week, but did reach a new closing hi today by [wait for it] 0.31%!  Yippee.

The market was fragmented today, with each index following its own path.  Volumes were low across the board.  Make of it what you will.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.31% 

SP500 +0.18%   

NASDAQ  +0.87%    

Russell 2000 +1.15% 


DJI30 Closings -

04/26/19 - 26543

04/24/20 - 23775

03/26/21 - 33073

04/26/21 - 33982

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2074/1230 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 2.16

New Hi/Lo = 395/16 = 24.69

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Taking Stock - Weekend Update

I need to pay more attention to the SP500!
Some excerpts from Avi Gilbert's post at Seeking Alpha today follow.
As we came into this past week, I had our members of The Market Pinball Wizard well prepared for the whipsaw action we experienced this past week. This next quote was from my analysis posted to our members last weekend:
[A]s I warned earlier this week, as long as the market respects the 4200SPX resistance region, then I still expect some whipsaw potential. You see, my main count has us completing wave iii of 3, with wave iv of 3 yet to be seen. Therefore, there is still some up/down action I expect in the coming week...
And, boy has it been a week of whipsaw. But the main point is that none of this comes as a surprise to those aware of the trend, and where we reside within the trend. In fact, as we were topping out on Thursday in a smaller degree structure, it was clear we were about to see a pullback, as I outlined to our members. And, at that time, the announcement was made about the Biden proposed new taxes on investments.
I have been doing this for a very long time, and I am always amazed at how news fits into the cycle. When the market is set up for a move, and a news event hits the wires, it always looks like the news event caused the move. Yet, when the market is not set up for that type of move, and a news event hits the wires, the market will often simply "yawn" and continue along its path. We have all seen this happen many times, that is, if we are paying close attention.
So, when the news of Biden's proposed tax hikes hit the market and the market reacted to the downside, all I can say is that it fits our chart expectations rather nicely. And, if you think that the substance of that news is what truly mattered, then you have to ask yourself if the news was retracted the very next day as not only did we take back the drop seen on Thursday, but we ran to new all-time highs!? Or, did investors re-consider, and then realize that the tax hike is actually bullish for the market?
I continually warn readers of my articles that if you attempt to trade or invest based upon the news, you will often find yourself behind the curve. I wonder how many of you were terribly whipsawed this past week based upon the news.
So, I will make this easy for you this coming week. Our smaller degree support is in the 4160/70SPX region. As long as that holds on Monday, I am looking for the market to rally up towards the 4240/50SPX region before we see another pullback to set us up for the next major rally to 4300+. But, if we do not hold 4160 as support early in the week, then we will likely re-test the 4095-4120SPX region before we begin the next rally to 4300+.
In other words, 4095-4120SPX is the new upper support for the market, and our targets remain 4300+ as we move into the month of May. In fact, 4095 may become our new support floor for the rest of 2021 depending upon the action seen in the coming 3 weeks.

Monday, April 19, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 19, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   34,077.63   -123.04 (-0.36%)

The index opened at 34182, off 18 points, and quickly dropped to 34051, off 150.  It chopped down to the low of 33981, off 220, after 12:30.  The afternoon gain was also choppy, with a 63 point rise in the last half hour.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 74 and 78 points, respectively.

The span was 202 points.  This is tepid follow-up to Friday’s all time highs, and a poor start to the week - though by rather small margins.   

Hale Stewart reports — 

“All the indexes were off; this only issue was degree. Smaller caps took the brunt of the selling, but large caps also took a modest hit.  Two defensive sectors are at the top of the list*. At the bottom are communication services, tech, and consumer discretionary - three sectors that are key for the SPY and QQQ.”

* Real Estate [slightly positive] and Health Care [slightly negative] Performed best today.

It seems that the session’s extreme - either hi or low - often occurs near mid-day.  I have no idea what that means - if anything,  At this point, it’s just an observation.  Not much more to say today.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.36% 

SP500 -0.53%   

NASDAQ  -0.98%    

Russell 2000 -1.36% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/17/20 - 24242

03/19/21 - 32628

04/19/21 - 34078

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1099/2191 = 0.50

A/D Vol = 0.66

New Hi/Lo = 236/32 = 7.38

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 12, 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-    33,745.40   -55.20 (-0.16%)

The index opened at 33775, off 26 points.  After a brief rise to 33786, off 14, it fell, hitting 33691, off 110 after 11:00.  By noon it recovered to 33770.  After 12:45 it fell again, hitting the day’s lo of 33666, off 135, after 2:00.  It stayed under 33700 until 3:30, when it was sharply rising, reaching the hi of 33786, off 14, 8 minutes before the close.

This was an inside day: minus 25 points at the hi end and plus 139 at the lo.  The span was an extraordinarily narrow 121 points, the least since 83 points on 1/17/2020 - well before last year’s crash.  If there is a positive here, it is in the day’s lo moving higher, which justifies the yellow arrow.

Last Friday there were new intra-day and closing highs.  Today was pretty uneventful. All the indexes were down a bit, and except for the SP500 which briefly went slightly positive in the early afternoon, they were all in the red all day.  DJI volume has been on the light side all month, and NYSE volume has been about 70% of normal.

It looks as if the DJI and SP500 are in third waves up from the 3/23/20 bottom, at some level of trend.  If that is right, then consolidations and brief corrections can safely be ignored, and there is still a long way to go up.  If!  The problem is the weak volume.  This does not look bullish, so the signals are mixed.

I read an article recently that graphical showed that not only is the stock market disconnected from the underlying economy, it has NEVER been connected.  I’ve repeatedly said that the market is an aspect of human emotion, and the collective behaviors of investors and speculators are, at best, semi-rational.  This is why we see extreme over and under valuations, and the occasional violent jolt.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.16% 

SP500 -0.02%   

NASDAQ  -0.36%    

Russell 2000 -0.43% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/12/19 - 26412

04/09/20 - 23719

03/12/21 - 32779

04/12/21 - 33745

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1640/1644 = 1.00  <---  how rare is this?!?

A/D Vol = 0.81

New Hi/Lo = 305/17 = 17.94

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Monday, April 5, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 5, 2021

Monday, April 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,527.19   +373.98 (+1.13%)

The Index opened at 33222, up 69 points, and quickly shot up to 33475, up 322.  It continued climbing, reaching the hi of 33618, up 465 after 12:30.  It slid back, but remained above 33515, until it briefly dipped under 33500 after 3:00, then had a choppy rise into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by the substantial margins of 451 and 237 points, respectively.  The span was 396.  This is a great start to the week, but the SP500 and NASDAQ had even more impressive gains, up by 1.44% and 1.67%

For now, animal spirits have captured the market in a big way.  The rotation into small caps and value might have reversed, as those segments were laggards today - though almost also sectors were up.

Volume was about normal for the DJI, but quite low for the SP500, NASDAQ and NYSE.  Russell volume number was not available.

I always talk about follow through, so we’ll have to see what tomorrow brings.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.13% 

SP500 +1.44%   

NASDAQ  +1.67%    

Russell 2000 +0.49% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/03/20 - 21053

03/01/21 - 31496

04/05/21 - 33527

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2095/1238 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 1.52

New Hi/Lo = 318/15 = 21.20

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Monday, March 29, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of March 29, 2021

Monday, March 29, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,171.37   +98.49 (+0.30%)

The Index opened at 33088, up 15 points, and climbed to 33103, up 30 in the first few minutes.  After 10:00 it dropped, hitting 32905, the day’s lo, off 168 before 11:00.  At noon, it was back up to 33050, off 22.  After 1:00 it stayed between 31100 and 31180 until 3:30, when it moved up to the day’s hi of 33259.  From there it was an 88 point slide into the close.

I mis-spoke on Friday.  There was a new closing hi, then, by 57 points.  Today we got new intra-day and closing highs, by 31 and 98 points, respectively.  This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 160 and 224 points, respectively.  The span was 354 points.

All the indexes were down in the morning. The DJI moved into positive territory around midday and stayed positive.  The SP500 spent the afternoon snaking around neutral and slipped slightly under at the end. The NASDAQ could’t quite get above the null point and slumped in the afternoon   The Russell was dismal the entire session.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.30% 

SP500 -0.09%   

NASDAQ  -0.60%    

Russell 2000 -2.83% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/25919 - 25929

03/27/20 - 21637

02/26/21 - 30932

03/29/21 - 33171

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1092/2233 = 0.49

A/D Vol = 0.51

New Hi/Lo = 214/29 = 7.34

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Taking Stock - Weekend Edition 3/28/21

Taking Stock

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Since the market lows at the end of October last year, there have been big increases. The DJI and SP500 have tracked pretty closely, which i think is typical.  The NADAQ followed a different path, but now all three of these indexes are just about tied, near a 20% gain at almost 5 months.  They’ve all been rather flat since about mid-month.

The Russell, however, has outpaced them all over this time.  Despite taking a nose dive since 3/15, it’s still up over 40%.  It looks very toppy, though.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it draw closer to the other indexes in the next few months.  This seems more likely to involve Russell losses than gains by the other indexes. 

But time will tell.

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of March 22, 2021

Monday, March 22, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,730.35   +102.38 (+0.31%)

The Index opened at 32602, off 26 points, and immediately fell to 32513, off 115.  It turned abruptly and started climbing, reaching 32725, up 97 at 10:45.  It ran sideways until 1:30, when it climbed to the range of 32810 between 2:30 and 3:15.  After that it fell 79 points into the close.

No new highs today - the last new closing hi was a week ago -  but a nice recovery after Friday’s loss, despite the fall-off at the end.  This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 48 points, and the lo higher by 7.  The span was 298.  The lo not falling is a mild plus, and momentum still looks very positive..

The SP500 and NASDAQ were up by larger margins than the DJI, but the Russell was in the red all day, and finished off almost a percent.

After advances Friday and today, the NASDAQ has gained back almost half of its loss since the 2/12 hi.  But momentum is still down, and the index doesn’t look strong to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it turn back lower this week.

If the NADAQ is up today, it seems the Russell 2000 must be down.  It had strong momentum from the beginning of November through February.  It’s now horizontal.  Is this a pause, like in last September-October, or a top?  Time will tell.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.32% 

SP500 +0.70%   

NASDAQ  +1.23%    

Russell 2000 -0.91% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/22/19 - 25502

03/20/20 - 19174 

02/22/21 - 31522

03/22/21 - 32731

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1449/1825 = 0.79

A/D Vol = 0.69

New Hi/Lo = 119/30 = 3.97

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Monday, March 15, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of March 15, 2021

Monday, March 15, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,953.46   +174.82 (+0.53%)

The Index opened at 32799, up 20 points, and immediately shot up to 32931, up 152. From there it quickly fell, hitting a lo of 32729, off 50, shortly after 10:00.  It went sideways for over an hour, then dropped to a new lo of 32630 at 11:30.  But an hour later it broke into positive territory, and reached 32875, up 96, at 2:30.  After a slump back to 32800 from 3:00 to 3:30, it rose 153 points into the close.  

The session looked dicey in the morning for all the indexes, but the afternoon was positive.  The NASDAQ finished up over a percent, and the other indexes made more modest but solid gains.  I guess shoes must be a hot commodity on Wall Street: Nike was up 3.2% - pretty impressive for a single day.  But The Weyco Group, that manufactures Florsheim, Nunn Bush and a few other brands, was up a stunning 16.26%, on 4 times average volume. I can’t find any reason for this.  It pays a 4.6% dividend, which, in context, now looks rather quaint.  

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 180 and 167 points, respectively.  The span was 344.  Momentum is clearly up now.  March 2020 was so long ago.

The Fed Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday; and options and futures contracts expire on Friday.  Things might be unsettled this week.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.53% 

SP500 +0.65%   

NASDAQ  +1.05.%    

Russell 2000 +0.31% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/12/19 - 25849

03/13/20 - 23186

02/12/21 - 31458

03/15/21 - 32953

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2054/1241 = 1.66

A/D Vol = 1.69

New Hi/Lo = 462/15 = 30.80

Tuesday, March 16, 2021