Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, February 22, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 22, 2021

Monday, February 22, 2021


Yellow Arrow Sideways


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,521.69   +27.37 (+0.09%)


The Index opened at 31381, 0ff 113 points, and within 3 minutes dropped to the lo of 31287, 0ff 203. Then, at 10:45 it reached a local hi of 31486, off 8.  After a slight draw back, it arced up to a marginal new intra-day hi [by 6 points] of 31654, and hovered in that range from 2:00 to 3:00.  Then there was a 132 point slide into the close, thus missing a new closing hi by 91 points.


This is an outside day, with the hi up by a meager 6 points, and the lo lower by 183.  The gain at the close is trivial.  The 367 point span is the largest since 564 on 2/12, during the recovery from the late January slide.  But note that the majority of the change is on the lo side.


Measures of momentum are converging again.  At the lo end, it slid by a tiny amount for the 3rd straight day, while at longer ranges it’s rising.


All the indexes fell off at the end of the day.  The SP500 and NASDAQ stayed in the red throughout, the latter taking a hard slide.  The Russell 2000 spent a few hours in the green, but was negative at the end of the session.


% Changes -

DJI30  +0.09% 

SP500 -0.77%   

NASDAQ  -2.48%    

Russell 2000 -0.69% 


DJI30 Closings -

02/22/19 - 26031

02/19/20 - 29348

01/19/21 - 30997

02/19/21 - 31522


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1564/1678 = 0.93

A/D Vol = 1.24

New Hi/Lo = 332/15 = 22.13





Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Monday, February 15, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 15

Monday, February 15, 2021

Market's are closed for President's day.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,522.75   +64.35 (+0.20%)

The index opened at 31472, up 14 points, and immediately surged up to 31580, up 122.  After drifting down for 45 minutes, the Index surged up to an all time intra-day high of 31609 at 10:30.  It then slid again, hitting the day’s lo of 31444 shortly after noon. It rose again, hitting 31575 after 2:30.  From there, it staggered down into the close.  Still, this is a new all time closing hi, 64 points above last Friday’s all time closing hi.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 137 and 96 points, respectively.  The span was a rather modest 165 points.  The 10 day average has dropped from 424 on 2/05 to 260 today.

The day’s gain is small, but there are new highs, and the Index was only in the red for a brief moment at the low.  So I’m giving the day’s action a green arrow.

The other indexes were slightly in the red today, with the RU2000 getting the worst of it. A day of reckoning is coming, and after the *ultimate* all time hi [whenever that is,] the market will have lo to negative returns for a decade or more.  It might be in two years.  I don’t think it’s in two weeks.  Elliott waver Avi Gilburt is giving it 2 years or more of robust gains.  For now, though, enjoy the ride.

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.20% 
SP500 -0.06%
NASDAQ -0.34%
Russell 2000 -0.72%

DJI30 Closings -
02/15/19 - 25883
02/14/20 - 29398
01/15/21 - 30814
02/16/21 - 31522

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1515/1745 = 0.87
A/D Vol = 1.41
New Hi/Lo = 382/9 = 42.44


Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Thursday, February 11, 2021

The Fed is not as powerful as you think

It's been almost 9 years since I wrote this post at Angry Bear. I'll admit that the idea isn't original. I got it from Elliott Wave International. But my own look at the data confirmed it. The Fed does not control short-term interest rates. The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate, but this is a close follower of 3 month T-Bill rates, which are set by an open market auction. The FFR always lags 3-mo T-Bills, and never leads. The lag can be very short, or as much as 4 months at major turning points.
Now I see another Elliott Waver making this same point, and providing these graphs.




The Evil of the Right Wing

I've said repeatedly and for years that trump is what the rethugs have wanted for years. This is why they stick with him now - he IS them. What attracts the trump follower at this late date is not any sort of conservative value system, but rather his crudeness, his cruelty, his racism, his sexism, his contempt for social and political norms, and likely even his ignorance.

Conservatism, at it's best, is never too far from authoritarianism, and can easily devolve into this kind of demented right-wingery. People say the conflict is not left-right, but rather decent-indecent. But right now [and perhaps always] indecent = far right.

It has never been about trump, per se, but rather about whatever cipher could represent the evil and ugliness of the right wing raw id. Perhaps trump is uniquely suited because he is negatively charismatic in a way that appeals to these deplorables.

But it was never about trump the person. It was always about trump as a symbol of what a certain class of right wing extremist wants and needs.



Monday, February 8, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of February 8, 2021

Monday, February 8, 2021


Green Arrow Up


DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   31,385.76    +237.52 (+0.76%)


The Index opened at 31191, up 43 points.  I reached 31359 short;y after 10:00.  There was slump, hitting 21240 before noon followed by sideways motion staying below 31310 until 3:30.  It then rose, with a 50 point spike in the last 3 minutes on a volume surge to close within 1 point of the hi.


This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo up by 134 and 108 points, respectively.  These are not big numbers, but the Index did burst through to new all time intra-day and closing highs, so that has to be acknowledged.  With that out of the way, the sky is now the limit.

This market is overvalued by any rational measure you can think of.  But none of that matters, since the market is fueled by emotion.  I think there is now new hope in the air with the loathsome trump regime in the rear view mirror and vaccines, stimulus money and reopening on the horizon.  These things are anticipated and IMHO the anticipated effects over-blown, but here we are.

I bought a basket of hi-yielding and/or hi dividend growth issues today.  My hope is that they will continue to pump out cash and weather whatever down-turns may be ahead of us.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.76% 

SP500 +0.74%   

NASDAQ  _+0.93%    

Russell 2000 +2.53% 


DJI30 Closings -

02/08/19 - 25106

02/07/20 - 29103

01/08/20 - 30174

02/08/21 - 31386


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2353/861 = 2.73

A/D Vol = 2.95

New Hi/Lo = 315/2 = 157.50



Tuesday, February 9, 2021

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of February 1, 2021

Monday, February 1, 2021


Yellow Arrow Sideways.


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,211.91   +229.29 (+0.76%)


The index opened at 30055, up 72 points.  It dropped 40 points to 30315 before 10:00, and bounced off lows in that range several times before rising to 30250, up 232 at 11:45.  It stayed above 30200 and below 30270 until 2:15 when it rose, hitting 30336, up 353 at 2:45.  From there it was a bumpy 124 point slide into the close, including a 55 point drop in the last 6 minutes - on a volume spike.


This is an inside day with the the hi lower by 218 points, and the lo higher by 229 - hence the yellow arrow.  The 320 point spread is well centered in Friday’s 798.  The 229 point rise is rather anemic given the 1400 point drop [4.5%] from the 1/21 all time hi to Friday’s lo.  Momentum is still sharply down.

This looks very much like a counter-current move, and I think the main trend is still down. The drop in the day’s last 1+ hour is consistent with this idea. For what it’s worth, the other indexes has significantly larger gains today


% Changes -

DJI30  +0.76% 

SP500 +1.61%   

NASDAQ  +2.55%    

Russell 2000 +2.53% 


DJI30 Closings -

02/01/19 - 25064

01/31/20 - 28256

12/31/20 - 30606

02/01/21 - 30212


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2522/702 = 3.59

A/D Vol = 4.40

New Hi/Lo = 89/2 = 44.5







Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Thursday, January 28, 2021

History

 I wrote this on my Face Book page 6 years ago.

I see two great, overarching themes to all of human history.
1) War
2) The desire of a small privileged elite minority to dominate and exploit the rest of us.
These two phenomena rise from the same root: greed.
War is always and everywhere about one of two things -
1) Somebody trying to take somebody else's stuff - wealth, land, natural resources, strategic locations, a population to be exploited.
2) The oppressed trying to exact revenge or take back what they thought was once theirs.
Nationalism and religion get the masses fired up and willing to go to war, but they are never the root cause.
Wealth and power are fungible. Money gives one the power to dominate. And with both wealth and power there is always the desire for more, and no amount is never enough.
Greed might not be the root of ALL evil, but it is the root of the greatest and most consistent evils in human history.

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

Gamestop = Tulip Bulbs

The company is a niche marketer of new and used video games and associated computer accessories and collectables. Small investors - or more, properly, speculators - have driven the price up to levels beyond the dreams of avarice, or anything else that makes some kind of sense. Just today, it went from the ridiculous price of $248 per share to $347.51. Contributing to the rise is a short squeeze on market professionals - the situation in which they must buy shares to cover their short positions.
In the 3 hours since the markets closed, shares have dropped dramatically. A few minutes ago they were off 123 points, but have now rebounded to where they are off only [!] 90. I suspect the short squeeze might be over, and the amateur speculators [dumb money] like the 16-year H.S. student mentioned in the attached article are on their own.
This is speculation run amok. There is little intrinsic value to these shares, which were hovering around $4 year ago, and through much of the summer, before creeping up to about $14 in mid December.
There is only one way for this to end - with Gamestop shares back in the range of $2 to 4, where they belong. The only question is when it is going to happen. Rather soon, I suspect.




Monday, January 25, 2021

Taking Sock - Week of January 25, 2021

Monday, January 25, 2021


Red Arrow Down


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,960.00   -36.98 (-0.12%)


The Index opened at 30990, off 7 points, and fell to 30775 before 10:00.  It recovered to 30925 a half hour later, but then dropped hard, citing the lo of 30564, off 433 points after 11:00.  It then climbed back, reaching 30950 after 1:30.  After a dip to 30850 at 3:15, it climbed 62 points into the close.


The loss was small, but the entire day was under water, and deeply negative by late morning.  This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 152 and 344 points, respectively.  The span was 426 points, the largest since 710 on 1/06.  Surprisingly, the convergence of momentum measures stalled a bit, despite the small loss.

All the indexes had similar contours today.  The DJI never touched green.  The Russell 2000 started out positive, but slid into the red by mid-morning and never climbed out.  The S&P and NASDAQ hovered around neutral and wound up positive.


% Changes -

DJI30  -0.12% 

SP500 +0.36%   

NASDAQ  +0.69%    

Russell 2000 -0.25% 


DJI30 Closings -

01/25/19 - 24528

01/24/20 - 28990

12/24/20 - 30200

01/25/21 - 30960


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1320/1890 = 0.70

A/D Vol = 1.07

New Hi/Lo = 287/2 = 143.5




Tuesday, January 26, 2021

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of January 18, 2020

Monday, January 18, 2020


The markets were closed in recognition of Martin Luther King Day.       


Tuesday, January 19, 2021


Green Arrow Up


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,930.52   +116.26 (+0.38%)


The Index opened at 30887, up 73 points, and immediately surged up another 199 to 31086 and change, the day’s hi.  This was followed by a rather steep fall to 30915 in the next 20 minutes.  After a bump to 30985 it dropped to the day’s lo of 30865 about an hour later.  From noon on it stayed between 30925 and 30995, and slipped 65 points from that local hi in the last 2 hours.


This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 145, and 252 points, respectively.  The range was 221 points, and is surrounded by the 347 point range of 1/08.  Short term momentum slid by a tiny increment. 

All the excitement in this session occurred in the first half hour.  The rest of the day was ho-hum.  It doesn’t look like today’s gain is significant. It looks to me like a local top is forming.  


% Changes -

DJI30  +.38% 

SP500 +0.81%   

NASDAQ  +1.53%    

Russell 2000 +1.49% 


DJI30 Closings -

01/18/19 - 24528 

01/17/20 - 29348

12/18/20 - 30179

01/15/21 - 30931


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1979/1194 = 1.66

A/D Vol = 1.61

New Hi/Lo = 203/3 = 67.67



Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of January 11, 2021

Monday January 11, 2021


Yellow Arrow Sideways


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,008.69   -89.28 (-0.29%)


The index opened at 31015, off 81 points, and immediately dropped to 30832, off 264.  There was a stepwise increase to the hi of 31097, a half point positive after 1:00.  It slipped to about 30970 before 2:30.  There was a rebound to about 31070 at 3:00 followed by a jagged slide into the close.


Except for a few moments near 1:00, the Index was in the red all day.  But, it’s an inside day, with the hi lower by 44 points, and the lo higher by 88.  Plus a change of only 0.29% occurred, so a yellow arrow is appropriate.


Momentum lags a bit, and is not the effect of a single day, or a small number of days.  The smallest period I look at is 5 days, and the Index is certainly up over that span.  So, today, momentum went up again, and by the largest single day amount since mid-November. Seems odd for a flat to down day, but that is how it works out.  Still, in the grand scheme of things, it’s a small blip on the larger sideways move.

All the indexes has roughly similar contours today, and all wound up negative.


% Changes -

DJI30  -0.29% 

SP500 -0.66%   

NASDAQ  -1.25%    

Russell 2000 -0.03% 


DJI30 Closings -

01/11/19 - 23996 

01/10/20 - 28824

12/07/20 - 30046

01/07/21 - 31009


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1259/1859 = 0.68

A/D Vol = 1.07

New Hi/Lo = 183/5 = 36.60




Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Monday, January 4, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of January 4, 2021

Monday, January 4, 2021


Red Arrow Down


DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   30,223.89   -382.59 (-1.25%)


The Index opened at 30627, up 21 points, and quickly rose to 30674, up 68, making yet another intra-day hi.  A steep decline followed, hitting a lo of 30018, off 588 around 11:00.  After a slight bounce to 30150, the fall resumed, hitting another lo of 29882 at 12:15.  The Index rattled around under 30000 for an hour, then again rebound to about 30150 before 1:30.  It hovered around 30100 until 3:30, then rose to the afternoon hi of 30256 before sliding 34 points into the close. This represents a recovery of 47.2% of the drop from the early morning hi to the mid-day lo.


This is an outside day, with the hi up by 37 points and the lo down by 463.  The span was 792 points, the largest since 803 on the big up-surge day of 11/09.


Today’s dramatic and impulsive-looking drop breaks the up-slanting wedge, with the lo and close landing well below it, and should be the beginning of a leg down.  Declines of 5, 10, 15 or 20% from this morning’s hi would land at 29141, 27607, 26073 or 24539, respectively.  I’m not predicting anything, just pointing out some possibilities.  But, given the extremes all the indexes have achieved in the last few days, I doubt that 5% would be an adequate correction.  Also but, I do have a bearish bias, so take that with a kilo of salt.

Yet another but - almost all of the few dozen individual stocks I’m tracking peaked on or before December 18th, and since then have drifted sideways or slid a bit, so down is looking a lot more likely than up - at least in the short term.

Momentum is down slightly from last Thursday’s local hi, but is still broadly sideways.  Today’s close and low are well within the trading range observed since mid-December.  One day isn’t going to do much to that picture. 


If I’m reading this situation right, early tomorrow there might be a slight move up to reach a 50% retracement of the drop, or a larger move up to 30372, reaching a 61.8% retracement [though neither of those is necessary] before the next leg of the drop.  There are other possibilities that will be addressed if they arise. There might be a support band at 29750 to 29980.  There are several daily lows in that range since late November.  But that is only a drop of 3% or less, and would not be much of a correction.


% Changes -

DJI30  -1.25% 

SP500 -1.48%   

NASDAQ  -1.47%    

Russell 2000 -1.47%


DJI30 Closings -

01/04/19 - 23433 

01/03/20 - 28635

12/04/20 - 30218

01/05/20 - 30224


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  913/2254 = 0.41

A/D Vol = 0.46

New Hi/Lo = 167/5 = 33.40





Tuesday, January 5, 2021