On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the stock took a nose dive, falling 16.9% to 410.17 on 9/26/23. That would have been a good buying opportunity of you were an agile trader or had a strong stomach. After rising to 469 on 10/12/23, it fell to a new lo at 405 on 10/27/23. But it bounced quickly, reaching a marginal new high at 496.56 on 11/14/23. In the 2 months since, it's wobbled a bit, going nowhere, to close at 490.97 on 1/05/24. Actually, the stock has been in the doldrums for 4 1/2 months, and pays no dividend. See Graph 1.
Over a 24 month span the stock is up 80%, while the NASDAQ is off almost 3%. This, I believe emphasizes the unsustainability of the stock price. See graph 2.
The difficulty in this kind of a situation is that the stock might have peaked, or it might just be building a base for a new advance. If I owned this stock [I do not] I wouldn't be in a big hurry to sell it all, but I would be watching carefully for the signs of a likely, possibly even inevitable, collapse. It's happened before - in 2022 it dropped 66%. Since August of 2023 it's been distressingly volatile, while not advancing. So I might consider selling some to lock in a hefty profit. But if the 5 day EMA drops below 162, and keeps heading down, I'd dump it. See Graph 3.
Disclaimer - I am not a financial or investment advisor. I do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification. Make your own decisions and chose wisely. Which is pretty damned difficult.
Note: Graphs 1 and 3 are from my files.
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