Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, May 24, 2021

Taking Stock. Week of May 24, 2021

Monday, May 24, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI Index at the close --- 34,393.98 +186.14 (+0.54%)

The Index opened at 33493, up 46 points. It climbed to 43450, up 242 at 11:30, then fell back to 34370 an hour later. It did not go below that level again. Instead, it climbed to the hi of 34473 at 2:15 and hovered near that level for about an hour. It then slumped about 50 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo up by 57 and 131 points, respectively. The span was 219.

The SP500 and NASDAQ had similar contours to the DJI. The Russell 2000 had more exaggerated slumps at mid-day and the end. All the indexes had clearly up days, and all remain below their recent lows. The NASDAQ gained the most.

This is the 3rd consecutive clearly up date, by modest margins, and all the indexes are slowly moving above their respective support zones.

That's about it.

% changes -
DJI30 +0.54%
SP500 +0.99%
NASDAQ +1.41%
Russell +0.54%

DJI Closings -
5/24/19 - 25586
5/22/20 - 24995
4/23/21 - 34043
5/24/21 - 34394

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2174/1153 = 1.89
A/D Vol = 2.02
New Hi/Lo = 202/26 = 7.77

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Red/Orange Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   ---   34,312.46  -81.52 (-0.24%)

The Index opened at at 34429, up 35 points, and quickly rose to 34511, up 117.  It dropped to 34380 before 10:00 and went sideways until after 11:00, when it dropped to a lo of 34313, off 81. It rose to 34460 before 12:30, then dropped again, and kept dropping until it hit the day's lo of 34266, off 128 points, just a few minutes before the close. The trend was down for the entire session.

This was a mixed day: the hi and lo were higher by the small margins of 39 and 12 points, but the close was off by 82.  The span was 245.

All the indexes had roughly similar contours: they started positive, and on the way down coiled around neutral before landing in the red.  The NASDAQ lost the least, and the Russell 2000 lost the most.  The NASDAQ and SP500 also had mixed days, while the the Russell had an outside day.

The DJI, SP500 and NASDAQ are still positive for the week, since yesterday's gains were larger than today's losses.  But the Russell is off 10 points.  And all are below their peaks from earlier in the month or year.  The best anyone can say about any of the indexes is that they are moving sideways.  

% changes -
DJI30 -0.24%
 SP500 -0.21%
NASDAQ -0.03%
Russell -0.97%

DJI Closings -
5/24/19 - 25586
5/22/20 - 24465
4/23/21 - 34043
5/24/21 - 34312

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1229/2059 = 0.60
A/D Vol = 0.44
New Hi/Lo = 192/26 = 7.38

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways
DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,323.05 +10.59 (+0.03%)

The index opened at 34336, up 24 points, and quickly jumped up to 34410, up 97.  It then fell, landing at 34271, off 41, at 10:00.  By 11:00 it was back up near the 34410, and then moved mostly sideways until 1:00, when it fell again.  It landed at 34290 at 3:00 and moved mostly sideways, staying below 34325 into the marginally positive close. 

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 102 points and the low higher by 5.  The span was a surprisingly narrow 138 points – about 40% of yesterday's 347.  The SP500 had a roughly similar contour, and an inside day, but didn't slip as much in the afternoon.  The NASDAQ rose in the morning and ran mostly flat in the afternoon.  It also had an inside day, with the hi lower by a single point.  Russell kept rising all day, gaining almost 2%. It was a clearly up day, but by only a couple of points at both ends. The big gain happened because yesterday's close was near the bottom of the day's range, while today's close was near the top.

All of the indexes have been moving sideways for the last several weeks (DJI and SP500) or months (NASDAQ and Russell.)  I'm going to guess that these moves are counter-current in a bull market that has not yet completely spent itself.

% changes -
DJI30 +0.03%
SP500 +0.19%
NASDAQ +0.59%
Russell +1.97%

DJI Closings -
5/24/19 - 25586
5/26/20 - 24995
4/26/21 - 33985
5/26/21 - 34323

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2257/1082 = 2.09
A/D Vol = 3.64
New Hi/Lo = 154/24 = 6.42

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,464.64   +141.59 (+0.41%)

The index opened at 34432, up 109 points.  Ten minutes later, it was at 34609, up 286.  From there it slid down 34400 at 11:30.  It then ran mostly sideways until 3:30.  In the last several minutes it rose to 34500, then at the very end  fell about 35 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 199 and 118 points, respectively.  The span was a modest 229 points.  The SP500 and Russell were also clearly up today. The NASDAQ had higher hi and lo, but the close was marginally down.  They all are well within the ranges established over the last several weeks or months.  Each had its own contour over the course of the session.

The week has been positive so far, with very little drama.  

% changes -
DJI30 +0.41%
SP500 +0.12%
NASDAQ -0.01%
Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -
5/26/19 - 25126
5/27/20 - 25548
4/27/21 - 33985
5/27/21 - 34465

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2104/1207 = 1.74
A/D Vol = 1.95
New Hi/Lo = 230/25 = 9.20

Friday, May 28, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   ---   34,529.45   +64.81 (+0.19%)

The index opened at 34559, up 94 points and immediately shot up to 34631, up 166.  After a retreat back to 34520 at 10:30, it rose again to 34610 at 12:30.  It then stayed above 34555 until the last few minutes, when it dropped into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 22 and 131 points, respectively, and the index in the green the entire session.  But the closing gain, only 9 points above the lo, is so minimal, the yellow arrow is warranted. The span was an extraordinarily narrow 111 points.

The SP500 and NASDAQ also had clearly up days, by small margins.  Aside from the slides at the end, these three indexes were basically flat after their early morning gains.  The Russell 2000 had a higher hi and lo as it coiled around its neutral line, but wound up slightly negative for the day. 

This was a positive week for all the indexes, though with no new highs. These were the weekly percentage gains.
DJI30 +0.94%
SP500 +1.16%
NASDAQ +2.06%
Russell 2000 +2.42%

With the Memorial Day Holiday on Monday, today was the last trading session of this flatish month.  Monthly changes were as follows.
DJI30 +1.93%
SP500 +0.55%
NASDAQ -1.53%
Russell 2000 +0.11%

Today's Stats:
% changes -
DJI30 +0.41%
SP500 +0.12%
NASDAQ -0.01%
Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -
5/24/19 - 25586
5/26/20 - 24995
4/26/21 - 33985
5/26/21 - 34323

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1958/1344 = 1.48
A/D Vol = 0.98
New Hi/Lo = 225/17 = 13.24

Monday, May 17, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 17, 2021

Monday, May 17, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close --- 34327.79 -54.34 (-0.16)

The Index opened at 34384, off 7 points, then increased by 9 before falling to 34236, off 146 before 10:00. At 10:30 it was down to 34277, off 205. There was a series of rapid oscillations between that level and 24270 until 12:30, when the index popped above that range, hitting 24305. It then dropped back to 34220 after 1:30. From there, it climbed to 34250 after 3:00, Then slid 22 points into the close.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 70 points and the lo higher by 126. The span was 207 points, less than half of the ten day average of 429. The SP500 and NASDAQ had similar contours and also wound up slightly negative. They both also had inside days. The Russell 2000 moved mostly upward in the afternoon and finished slightly positive, avoiding an inside day by 2 ½ points at the close.

This was basically a ho-hum day, all around. Fed remarks will be released on Wednesday, so traders might be in a holding pattern until then. Last Friday's dismal jobs report was shrugged off by the markets, with all the indexes making gains then. Those gains were mostly consolidated today. This bull is very old, and might be tired, but it's not dead yet.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.16%
SP500 -0.25%
NASDAQ -0.38%
Russell +0.11%

DJI Closings -
5/17/19 – 2576
5/1520 - 23685
4/16/21 - 34201
5/17/21 - 34328

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1751/1597 = 1.10
A/D Vol = 1.8.3
New Hi/Lo = 179/41 = 4.37

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,060.66   -267.13 (-0.78%)

The index opened at 34409, up less than 2 points, zig-zagged, then dropped to 34210, off 118 at 10:00.  It stayed between that level and 24290 until 2:30 when it dropped lower, hitting a lo of 34147, off 205 at 2:45.  It rose above 34210 again at 3:15, hitting 34262 at 3:40.  But from there it was a hard and dramatic 201 point fall into the close.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by only 25 points, and the low lower by 132 – the vast majority of the later happening in the last 15 minutes of the session.  The span was 365.  A change of about ¾ of a point in either direction is generally no big deal.  But all the indexes did the same thing at the same time in the closing moments.  The SP500 wound up in the middle of its support range.  The other indexes finished above theirs.  

For the NASDAQ, the lower border of a channel from the 3/23/20 lo through an intermediate lo has already intersected its support range.  So, unless it resumes climbing soon, the channel will be violated.  For the other indexes, the lower channel border will intersect the support range in the coming weeks.

This was another ho-hum day until the last few minutes.  Then it all went sour.  This is as exciting as seeing your closer blow the save in the bottom of the 9th.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.78%
SP500 -0.85%
NASDAQ -0.56%
Russell -0.73%

DJI Closings -
5/17/19 - 25764
5/18/20 - 24597
4/16/21 - 34201
5/18/21 - 34061

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1524/1795 = 0.85
A/D Vol = 0.55
New Hi/Lo = 228/24 = 9.50

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close ---   33896.04   164.62  (-0.48%)

The index opened at 33946, off 115 points, and immediately plunged to 33640, off 421.  At 10:40 it hit the lo of 33474, off 587.   It then turned and started climbing, reaching 33869 at 1:20, then turned again and fell back to 33630 at 3:00  Action after 1:00 was basically sideways in that range until the closing minutes as it was rising into the close.  From the 10:40 lo, the gain was substantial, with a 125 point bump in the closing moments.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by the stunning amounts of 463 and 570 points, respectively.  The lo hit the bottom of the support level, and the hi and finish were above that range.  

All the indexes climbed from deep mid-morning lows to finish with marginal losses.   The SP500 lo landed where the bottom of the support range from early April crosses the trend channel bottom from the 3/23/20 lo.  The hi and close were within its support range.  The NASDAQ's lo was right at the lower boundary of its trend channel, with the hi and close landing above it.  The Russell 2000 touched the top of its support range at the lo, then finished above it. 

The minutes of the April Fed meeting released at 2:00 today indicated that they might think about tightening at some uncertain future date, due to inflation.  This seems not to have influenced the markets in any obvious way.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.48%
SP500 -0.29%
NASDAQ -0.03%
Russell -0.78%

DJI Closings -
5/17/19 - 25764
5/19/20 - 24207
4/19/21 - 34078
5/19/21 - 33896

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1170/2137 = 0.55
A/D Vol = 0.29
New Hi/Lo = 50/33 = 1.52

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34084.15   +188.11 (+0.55%)

The Index opened at 339906, up 10 points, did a quick drop to 33872, off 24, then started climbing, reaching a hi of 34233 before noon.  It then turned and fell again, hitting 34030 after 12:30. From 1:00 until after 3:00 it stayed between 34100 and 34150.  It bounced to 34215 before sliding about 30 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 288 and 399 points, respectively. The span was 361.  The low was at the top of the support range. The other indexes rose further than the DJI. The SP500 and NASDAQ rose most of the day. On the SP500, the low was in the middle of its support range, and the hi and close were at the top of it.  The NASDAQ rose above its lower channel line.  The Russell 2000 snaked around its neutral line and finished strong to end positive. 

It's refreshing to have an up day after the last couple sessions. And there is some comfort in seeing the support levels maintained.  What we've seen in recent weeks might be counter-current to the ongoing bull market, at some lower level of trend.  But going forward it's important that the channels and support levels be maintained.

% changes -
DJI30 +0.55%
SP500 +1.06%
NASDAQ +1.77%
Russell +0.64%

DJI Closings -
5/20/19 - 25680
5/20/20 - 24576
4/20/21 - 33821
5/20/21 - 34084

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2210/1090 = 2.03
A/D Vol = 1.54
New Hi/Lo = 111/21 = 5.29

Friday, May 21, 2021

Green Arrow Up [a little]

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,207.84   +123.69 (+0.36%)

The Index opened at 34122, up 38 points, and the day's lo. Before 10:00 it reached the  hi of 34415, up 331.  It drifted down below 34300, up about 215, at 11:45, and reached a lo of 34150, up 66, before 1:00.  It rose to an intermediate hi of 34300 before 3:30, then slid over 90 points into the close.

This is a tepid gain, but a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 182 and 249 points, respectively.  The span was 294.  The net change for the week was 0.51%.  The mid-week was dramatic, but the end of the week was ho-hum.  All the indexes had roughly similar contours, at differing levels.  The Russell 2000 was also positive, but the NASDAQ was negative most of the day, and the SP500 slipped into the red at the close. The SP500 straddled the top of its support zone, and finished right on it.  The Russell 2000 spent the whole day above its support zone.  As did the NASDAQ, which is only about 400 points above its lower channel boundary from the 3/23/20 lo.

I saw an article last night that said yesterday's gains were mainly due to closing out options contracts prior to their expiration today.  I don't have the kind of insight it would take to critique that comment.  And don't know how that might have played out today.  I'm just sharing it for whatever it's worth.

% changes -
DJI30 +0.36%
 SP500 -0.08%
NASDAQ -0.48%
Russell +0.34%

DJI Closings -
5/21/19 - 25877
5/21/20 - 24474
4/21/21 - 34137
5/21/21 - 34208

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1960/1353 = 1.54
A/D Vol = 1.39
New Hi/Lo = 179/17 = 10.53

Monday, May 10, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 10, 2021

Monday, May 10, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways.

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,742.82 -34.94 (-0.10%)

The index opened at 34784, up 8 points. And immediately shot up to 34925. It then climbed more slowly reaching 35092, up 314, before noon. From there, the price slumped to 35000 at 2:15, then dropped to 34870, up only 92, in less than 10 minutes. It then went mostly sideways until 3:45 when it dropped 127 points into the close.

Only the late drop kept this from being a clearly up day. The hi and lo were up by 280 and 277 points, respectively. This strange session provided a new intra-day hi – the 4th such in a row - by 280 points. The SP500 touched green briefly mid-day, but finished off more than a percent. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were red all day, and both finished off more than 2.5%. Every index took a large drop at 2:15, though they were all heading lower anyway.

This is a terrible start to the week, especially coming off Friday's all time highs in the DJI and SP500 But both indexes are still well above their support levels. Meanwhile, the Russell has been in a up-trend since its 3/25 lo. Today's lo landed right on the channel bottom. Similarly, the NASDAQ has been in a up-trend defined by its 3/05 and 5/06 lows. Sadly, though, today's lo dropped below that channel boundary. It's too early to say if that channel is invalidated, or if the border needs to be adjusted. The next few days should clarify that point.

It surprised me to discover that each of the indexes is moving within [or close to] an up-slanting channel. Each index has a different starting date, and different behavior within its channel. I've included it on today's DJI chart to illustrate. So, despite today's dismal performances, the overall outlook is not bleak – yet. As long as the support levels and channels hold, we're doing OK.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.10%
SP500 1.04%
NASDAQ -2.55%
Russell -2.59%

DJI Closings -
5/10/19 – 25942.37
5/08/20 - 24331
4/09/21 - 33801
5/07/21 – 34743

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1104/2247 = 0.49
A/D Vol = 0.37
New Hi/Lo = 713/52 = 13.71

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 3, 2021

Monday, May 3, 2021

Green Arrow Up 

DJI30 Index at the close ---  34,113.23 +238.38 (+0.70%)

The Index opened at 33905, up 30, and immediately shot up to 34074, up 199. It continued up, reaching a hi of 34216 at 10:00. It stayed above 34130 until 3:48, and hit a new hi of 34221 at 11:45. In the last few minutes it slid 17 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 232, and 119 points, respectively. This action missed new all-time intra-day and closing highs by 36 and and 24 points respectively.

Every index followed a different path today, with the DJI leading the pack and only the NASDAQ finishing negative. The Russell stayed below last weeks local hi, and might still be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.70
SP500 +0.27
NASDAQ -0.48
Russell +0.45

DJI Closings -

5/03/19 - 26505
5/04/20 - 23750
4/01/21 - 33153
5/03/21 - 34113

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2311/1090 = 2.12
A/D Vol = 2.19
New Hi/Lo = 374/18 = 20.78

Tuesday, May 4, 2021