Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Thursday, August 3, 2017

Tigers Update

Over the last 20 games, the Tigers are 11-9.  Their run differential has gone from -33 to -25, despite giving up 16 humiliating runs to the Royals on two separate occasions during that period.
After recently getting swept 0-3 by the hated Royals at home, they have now gone 4-2, winning their next two series against the Astros and Yankees - two rather good teams.
At 49-57, they are now 8 games under .500, with a .462 win percentage. This would project to a 75-87 final record.
With 56 remaining games, barring some horrible collapse involving 43 losses (.232 win %), the dreaded 100 loss season does not seem to be in the cards.
The run differential for only innings 7-9 has hovered in the range of -39 to -53 since game 67 against the Rays, and is currently at -44. 
Tigers scoring breaks down like this -
Innings 1-3: 176 runs
Innings 4-6: 197
Innings 7-9: 135
Opponents -
Innings 1-3: 173
Innings 4-6: 175
Innings 7-9: 179
You can see the double whammy here - opponents late relief has been effective, while ours has not. So the Tigers are a team that has trouble holding a lead, and trouble coming from behind.

On to Baltimore, then Pittsburgh.