Taking Stock - Week of November 15, 2021

Monday, November 15, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close --- 4,682.80  -0.05 (-0.00%)

DJI30 --- 36,087.45   -12.86 (-0.04%)

NASDAQ --- 15,853.85    -7.11 (-0.04%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,400.93    -10.84 (-0.45%)

The SP500 opened at 4689, up 6 points, and hit 4697, the hi, up 15, a few minutes later. It dropped to 4673, the low at 11:45. It snaked around 4680 – the neutral point, the rest of the day to end flat. The hi was up by 9 points, and the lo by 22, but the 0.05 point loss prevented a clearly up day.

The DJI30 opened at 36129, up 29 points. It hit 36236, the hi, up 136, before 11:00, then slumped the rest of the day, hitting the lo, 36032, off 69, at 3:45. The hi and lo were up by 88 and 97 points, respectively; but the 13 point loss prevented a clearly up day.

The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 41 points, and rose to 15918, up 57. It fell to 15778, the lo, before 12:30. From there it was an irregular rise into the close. The hi and lo were higher by 44 and 73 points. Again a tiny closing loss prevented a clearly up day.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2412 and immediately rose to 2021, the hi, up 9. It rose to 2400 before 1:30, then went mostly sideways into the close, for the day's only notable loss. It had an outside day by 4 points at the top and 13 at the bottom.

This still looks like a developing 4th wave, and will continue to do so until the SP500 convincingly tops the 11/05 hi at 4718. Elliot Wave analyst Avi Gilbert defines 4550 as a critical support level. I've raised the red support line to that level on the chart. This is pretty close to 4566 which I mentioned last week as a possible retracement minimum, and to 4546, the 9/02 local hi. If it dips lower, we'll have to reconsider.

SP500 Closings -
11/15/19 - 3120
11/13/20 - 3585
10/15/21 - 4471
11/15/21 - 4683

NYSE Internals –
A/D = 1531/1817 = 0.84
A/D Vol = 1.13
New Hi/Lo = 165/44 = 3.75

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,700.90   +18.10 (+0.39%)

DJI30    ---  36,142.22   +54.77 (+0.15%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,973.86   +120.01 (+0.76%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,405.02   +4.09 (+0.17%)

The SP500 opened at 4679, the day's lo, off 3 points.  It climbed pretty steadily to 4715, the hi, after 2:00, then slumped into the close for a modest gain.  This is a clearly up day by 18 and 7 points.   At the hi, it was less than 4 points below the 11/05 all time intra-day hi, and at the close only a point under the 11/08 all time hi.

The DJI 30 followed a similar, but not identical path.  It opened at 36076, off 11 points.  It reached 36317, up 229, at 12:45, then slid the rest of the day, falling especially hard in the last half hour, to close with a small gain. This was a clearly up day by 81 and 44 points, but the afternoon was all downhill.  It remains below the 11/08 all time highs by 249 pints intra-day and 290 at the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 15840, off 14 points, and climbed steadily, reaching 15975 after 1:00.  From there it want mostly sideways, hitting 15990, the hi at 3:45, for the day's strongest performance.  This is a clearly up day by 71 and 47 points. It is below the 11/05 intra-day hi by 64 points and the 11/08 closing hi by 9.

The Russell 2000 opened at at 2400, off a fraction, and quickly dropped to 2387, off 14 points.  It then climbed, reaching positive territory at noon.  It reached 2408, the hi, after 2:30, and slid into the close.  Contra the 4 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 13 and 6 points, respectively.  It remains under the 8/05 highs by 51 points intra-day and 38 at the close.

It's possible that wave 4 is still unfolding,with more downside action to follow, and we can't ignore that possibility.  But  now it seems more likely to me that the early sub-waves of wave five up might have started.  If this is correct, we should be seeing new highs in the next few days, with further advances to follow soon after. 

SP500 Closings -

11/15/19 - 3120

11/16/20 - 3627

10/15/21 - 4471

11/16/21 - 4701

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1500/1810 = 0.83

A/D Vol = 0.65

New Hi/Lo = 172/56 = 3.07

Wednesday, November 16, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,688.67   -12.23 (-0.26%)

DJI30    ---  35,931.05   -211.17 (-0.58%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,921.57   -52.28 (-0.33%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,377.01   -28.02 (-1.16%)

The SP500 opened up a point at 4702, the day's hi.  It zig-zagged all day, hitting 4684, the lo, before 10:00.  It touched the hi again at noon, and came close to the lo again a half hour later. It  then galumphed into the close, ending on a down tic and a volume surge.  This was an inside day by 13 points at the top and 5 at the bottom

The DJI 30 opened at 36160, the day's hi, up 17 points.  It dropped to 35940 at 12:30 then moved sideways the rest of the day, hitting 35909, the lo, at 2:30.  It also dropped in the waning minutes on a volume surge.  This was a clearly down day by 157 and a67 points.

The NASDAQ opened flat at 15974 and reached 15999, the hi, up 16, at noon.  It dropped to 15909, the lo, an hour later.  From there it rumbled along into the close.  Contra the loss, the hi and lo were higher by 9 and 84 points.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2404 off less than a point.  It fell to 2369, the lo, at 12:30, From there it was a jagged climb to the close for the day's biggest loss.  It was a clearly down day by 4 and 17 points.

All this cast doubt on my suggestion that wave 5 up is in progress.  While that is still possible, it could also be that wave 4 is still unfolding.  A third possibility is that the indexes have topped, and a wave down has begun.  This is confusing.  I hope the next few days provide some clarity.

SP500 Closings -

11/15/19 - 3120

11/16/20 - 3610

10/15/21 - 4471

11/16/21 - 4689

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1118/2227 = 0.50

A/D Vol = 0.41

New Hi/Lo = 106/82 = 1.29

Thursday, November 18, 2021

YellowArrow Sideways

SP500 at the close  ---   4,704.54   +15.87 (+0.34%)

DJI30    ---  35,870.95   -60.10 (-0.17%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,993.71   +72.14 (+0.45%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,363.59   -13.42 (-0.56%)

The SP500 opened at 4701, up 12 points, and fell to 4673, the lo, off 16 before 10:30.  From noon on it wound around 4700, ending on a small up-tick and a volume surge, for a modest gain.  This was an outside day by 7 points at the top and 12 on the bottom.  This is ambiguous, pointing nowhere.  But it does not negate the bullish case.

The DJI30 opened at 35902, off 29, and dropped to 35654, the lo, before 10:30.  It then wound around 35875 from noon on, ending with a small loss.  This was a clearly down day by 207 and 255 points.  I can't get a convincing wave count on this chart, so I won't comment on the retracement level.  The recent day's motion is clearly down, but the bullish case is not yet refuted.

The NASDAQ opened at 15973, up 52 points, and dropped to 15849, the lo, off 72 points, before 10:30.  It wound around 15975 from noon on, ending on a small down tic and a volume surge.  it had an outside day by 12 points at the top and 61 at the bottom

The Russell 2000 opened at 2378, up a fraction, and reached 2386, the hi, up 9, a few minutes later.  It dropped to 2349, the lo, off 28, at 10:30.  It wound around 2360 the rest of the day, then closed on a slight rise for the days largest loss.  It had a clearly down day by 18 and 21 points.  If I have identifieded the limits correctly, today's lo is a 53% retracement.   It looks bad on today's graph, but is not far off of a typical 50%, and still has some room to fall without reaching 63%, the expected maximum loss  So the bullish case still has not been refuted.  But tother possibilities deserve consideration.

Two outside sessions with gains along with two clearly down sessions only muddy the water.  The ambiguity is frustrating, but the market is going to do what the market is going to do.  Maybe we'll have better luck tomorrow.

SP500 Closings -

11/15/19 - 3120

11/16/20 - 3610

10/15/21 - 4471

11/16/21 - 4689

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1169/2197 = 0.53

A/D Vol = 0.41

New Hi/Lo = 118/108 = 1.09

Friday, November 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,697.96    -6.58 (-0.14%)

DJI30    ---  35,601.98   -268.97 (-0.75%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   16,057.44   +63.73 (+0.40%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,343.16   -20.43 (-0.86%)

The SP500 opened at 4708, up 4 points and made a jagged climb to 4711, the hi, after 12:30.  It then dropped quickly to 4697, the lo, an hour later.  It recovered to 4707 before 2:30, then fell again, almost to the lo, a few minutes before closing with a small loss. However, the hi and lo were up by 2 and 24 points.

The DJI opened at 35879, up 8 points, and immediately started falling, It reached 35610, off 261, after 10:00, then went mostly sideways, It reached 35555, the lo, after 1:30, then rolled into the close, for a substantial loss.  This was a clearly down day by 74 and 99 points..

The NASDAQ opened at 16042, up 48 points, and rose to 16121, up 127, after11:00.  It then dropped to 16017, the lo, after 1:30.  After a rise to 16085 before 2:30, it slumped into the close for a substantial gain.    This was a clearly up day by 110 and 164 points.  It achieved a new all time hi on Thursday, and exceeded that by 64 on Friday.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2362, the hi, off 1 point.  It quickly dropped to 2345, then stayed above that level until after 3:30, when it dropped into the close, just a point and a half above and a few moments after the day's lo, 2342.  This was a substantial loss and a clearly down day by 24 and 7 points.

There was no pattern to this session.  On balance, it was negative.  Next week's trading will be abbreviated by the holiday, so I have no expectations.

Weekly changes -

SP500 +0.44%

DJI30 -1.38%

NASDAQ +1.24%

Russell 2000  -2.85%

SP500 Closings -

11/19/19 - 3120

11/19/20 - 3582

10/19/21 - 4520

11/19/21 - 4703

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1164/2184 = 0.53

A/D Vol = 0.35

New Hi/Lo = 93/112 = 0.83