Taking Stock - Week off November 1, 2021

Monday, November 1, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close --- 4,613.67 +8.29 (+0.18%)

DJI30 --- 35,913.84+94.28 (+0.26%)

NASDAQ --- 15,595.92+97.53 (+0.63%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,358.12 +60.93 (+2.65%)

The SP500 opened at 4611, up 5 points, and quickly rose to 4620, up 15. It then fell, bottoming at 4596, off 10 and the day's lo. After that it recovered, reaching 4613 at 1:00, but fell to the lo again at 2:15. Then it rose again into the close, on an up-tick and a volume surge. This is a clearly up day by 12 and 27 points, and new all time highs by 12 points intra-day and 8 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 35834, up 14, and slithered in the same way, but only touched red once at the 11:00 lo of 35798, off 22. It had a clearly up day by 157 and 165 points. It reached a new all time intra-day hi by 117 points and at the close by 94.

The NASDAQ opened at 15541, up 43. It touched red briefly at 10:00, reached an intermediate hi after 1:00, then dropped to an intermediate lo at 2:15. From there it rose steadily to close at the day's hi. It had a clearly up by 95 and 145 points. It also had new all time highs by 52 points intra-day and 50 at the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2298, up less than a point. It climbed pretty steadily all day, ending with an unusually large 2.65% gain. It was a clearly up day by 56 and 8 points. It achieved new local highs by 37 points intra-day and 45 at the close. Also the Index is now less than 2 points under the 3/15 all time highs.

This was a very strong day. So there is no reason to think anything downside is coming soon. But I'm still a bit leery.

SP500 Closings -
11/01/19 - 3067
10/30/20 - 3270
10/01/21 - 4357
11/01/21 – 4614

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2512/853 = 2.94
A/D Vol = 4.06
New Hi/Lo = 209/20 = 10.45

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,630.65   +16.98 (+0.37%)

DJI30    ---  36,052.63   +138.79 (+0.39%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,649.60  +53.69 (+0.34%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,361.86   +3.73 (+0.16%)

The SP500 started flat then increased until it peaked at 11:45.  It slumped for abut a half hour, then ran mostly sideways into the close.  It had a clearly up day by 15 and 18 points.  This resulted in more new all time highs: 15 points intra-day and 17 at the close.

The DJI did about the same, with a brief excursion into negative territory before 10:00.  It had a clearly up day by 79 and 86 points. It also achieved new all time highs: 79 points intra-day and 139 at the close.  Remember that 1999 book “DOW 36000” That looked like a sad joke in 2001 and again in 2009?  Well, 22 years later we finally got there, with 36009.74 at yesterday's hi, and 36052.63 at today's close.  Yay, hooray!  All it took was a whole lot of time.

The NASDAQ started slightly negative, but quickly went positive and went mostly sideways during the afternoon.     This was the NASDAQ's 4th consecutive day with all time intra-day and closing highs, this time by 58 and 54 points.  Of course it was a clearly up day, by those same margins.

The Russell 2000 started negative and meandered around neutral the rest of the day, finishing with a small gain.  But this small gain in enough to reach all time new highs: by 3.38 points intra-day and 1.69 point at the close.

 

These were not huge gains, and the NYSE internals were mediocre. I'm not a great wave reader, but it looks like this a third wave in progress, at some small level of trend. But I'd expect stronger internal – like yesterday's – if that were the case.  We'll see how it plays out. 

 SP500 Closings -

11/01/19 - 3067

11/02/20 - 3310

10/01/21 - 4357

11/01/21 – 4631

NYSE Internals – Much weaker than yesterday

A/D = 1527/1831 = 0.84

A/D Vol = 0.68

New Hi/Lo = 194/33 = 5.88

Wednesday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,660.57   +29.92 (+0.65%)

DJI30    ---  36,157.58   +104.95 (+0.29%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,811.58   +161.98 (+1.04%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,404.17   +42.32 (+1.79%)

The SP500 started dead even, then ran less than 10 points negative until 2:00 when it started to rise, leading again to a clearly up day and to new all time highs by 20 points intra-day and 23 at the close.

The DJI started slightly positive, immediately dropped into the red, and slumped to a lo at 2:00 when it suddenly started climbing.  It also had a clearly up day and new all time highs by 90 points intra-say and 105 at the close

The NASDAQ started slightly positive then quickly dropped slightly red.  It ran just below the neutral line until 2:00, when it started to rise, reaching new all time highs by the stunning margins of 165 intra-day and 162 at the close. 

The Russell 2000 started flat and rose until 11:00.  It slid a bit until 2:00 when it also started climbing. It also reached new highs by 53 points intra-day and 89 at the close

Today, the Fed announced that it will start tapering at some unspecified date, but not increase interest rates any time soon, since inflation is still viewed as transitory.  It seems that speculators were biding their time until the Fed announcement, which evidently was taken as good news. So – the bull proceeds unabated.

For now.

SP500 Closings -

11/01/19 - 3067

11/02/20 - 3369

10/01/21 - 4357

11/01/21 - 4653

NYSE Internals – Much weaker than yesterday

A/D = 2225/1107 = 2.01

A/D Vol = 2.21

New Hi/Lo = 253/21 = 12.05

Thursday, November 2, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,680.06   +19.49 (+0.42%)

DJI30    ---  36,124.23   -33.35 (-0.09%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,940.31   +128.72 (+0.81%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,402.43.  -1.85 (-0.08%)

The SP500 started at 4663, 9 points positive then was above that the whole day.  It hit the day's hi, 4683, twice around 10:30.  It spent most of the day twisting around 4670, and rose into the close after 3:30.  This was a clearly up day by 28 and 41 points, with new all time highs by 28 points intra-day and 27 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 26107, off 50, and spent the entire day in the red.  It slipped, rose the fell again hitting 35986, the lo, after 2:30.  Then it rose sharply, but ended slightly short of a gain.  This was an inside day by  11 points at the top and 95 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ opened at 15850, up 38 points, and never saw red.  With some wiggles, it went mostly sideways the rest of the day. This was a clearly up day by 145 and 211 points, and resulted in new highs by 145 intra-day and 129 at the close.

After the recent dramatic rises, the Russell 2000 was ho-hum today.  It started at 2405, off 3 points, then rose to 2424, the hi, up 16 at 10:15.  It dropped until 11:30, then spent the rest of the day moving sideways, slightly below neutral, to end with a minute loss.  This was a mixed day, with the hi higher by 10 points, and the lo higher by 50 to counter the loss at the end.

So, two indexes reached new highs, and the two that didn't were only slightly off and had substantially higher lows.  This might be due to waves working out at very lo levels of trend.  On balance, i'm seeing this as a positive day.  We'll need confirmation tomorrow.

SP500 Closings -

11/04/19 - 3078

11/04/20 - 3443

10/04/21 - 4300

11/04/21 - 4680

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1471/1831 = 0.80

A/D Vol = .42

New Hi/Lo = 255/29 = 8.79

Friday, November 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,697.53   +17.47 (+0.37%)

DJI30    ---  36,327.95   +203.72 (+0.56%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,971.59   +31.28 (+0.20%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,437.08   +34.65 (+1.44%)

The SP500 opened at 36107, up 19 points, and rose to 4719, the day's hi, up 38, after 10:00.  It sunk to 4681, the lo, up 1 point at 1:30.  It rose until after 2:00, then moved sideways into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 36 and 19 points.  There were new all time highs by 36 points intra-day and 17 at the close.

The DJI 30 opened at 36269, up 145 points.  It rose to 36485, the hi, up 361 after 10:00, then slid to 36190, the lo, up 66, at 1:30.  It rose until 2:15 then ran sideways into the close.  This was a clearly up day by 317 and 204 points.  The Index also achieved new highs by 306 points intra-day and 170 at the close.

The NASDAQ opened at 16004, up 63 points, and rose to its hi, 16053, up 113, after 10:00.  It dropped to the day's lo, 15901, off 40 points at 1:30, rose until 2:15, then went sideways into the close.  This is a clearly up day by 87 and 73 points, and the Index achieved new all time highs by 87 points intra-day and 31 at the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2403, the day's lo up 1 point, and reached 2449, the hi, up 47 before 11:30.  It fell near the lo at 1:45, then had a choppy rise into the close for the day's biggest gain.  It had a clearly up day by25 and 8 points, and reached new all time highs by 25 points intra-day and 111 [!] at the close.

There can be very little doubt now that we are seeing third wave advances on all the indexes, at some level of trend.  If this is correct, a 4th wave decline will follow, for perhaps a 50% retracement of the 3rd wave gain [just as a guess.]  After that there will be a 5th wave up, including another string of new highs.  When that is complete, a larger scale correction will occur. That is only one possibility – but right now it looks like the most likely one.

Weekly changes -

SP500  +2.00%

DJI 30  +1.42%

NASDAQ   +3.05%

Russell 2000  +6.09% [!}

SP500 Closings -

11/05/19 - 3075

11/05/20 - 3510

10/05/21 - 4346

11/05/21 - 4697

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 2229/1131 = 1.97

A/D Vol = 2.04

New Hi/Lo = 290/24 = 12.08