Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Monday, October 25, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of October 25

Monday, October 25, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---  4,566.48   +21.58 (+0.47%)

DJI30    ---  35,741.15   +64.13 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ   ---   15,226.71   +136.51 (+0.90%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,312.64   +21.37 (+0.93%)

The SP500 opened at 4554, up 9 points, and quickly fell to the lo of 4537, off 8.  It then rose up to the day's hi of 4573, up 28 at 1:15. It then stayed above 4565 until after 3:00 when it slid into the close.  This is a clearly up day by 13 points at each end.  This is gives us a new intra-day hi by 13 points, and a closing hi by 17 points over last Thursday's.

The DJI had a similar but choppier path.  It opened at 35693, up 16 points, and quickly dropped to 35629, off 48.   It hit the hi of 35787, up 110, at 1:15.  From there it was a bumpy ride down to the close which, surprisingly occurred on a 29 point up-tic and a volume surge.  This was a clearly up day by 22 points at the top and 95 at the bottom.  This gives us new intra-day and closing highs by 22 and 64 points, respectively. 

The NASDAQ opened up 52 points then quickly whip-sawed to the day's lo, off 20.  It then climbed pretty steadily to the day's hi, up 169 after 2:30 before sliding into the close.  There was a small jp-tic at the end on a volume surge.  It had a clearly up day by 67 points at the top and 50 at the bottom.  It is still under its 9/07 highs.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at the day's lo, chopped up then down again before rising to the day's hi, up 24, before  noon.   From there it was mostly sideways with a slight slide into the close.  This was a clearly up day by15 points at either end.   The Index exceeded its 9/02 local high by 5 points, but remains well below the early June local highs.

These are solid gains, and if I squint I can see a potential five wave structure forming, now I wave three, at some small level of trend.  It this is valid there cold be several more months of bull market.  However, there is the possibility of another pull back before things take off.

SP500 Closings -
10/25/19 - 3023
10/23/20 - 3465
09/24/21 - 4455
10/25/21 - 4566

NYSE Internals -  
A/D = 2122/1245 = 1.70
A/D Vol = 1.67
New Hi/Lo = 212/25 = 8.48

Tuesday, October 26, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---  4,574.79   +8.31 (+0.18%)

DJI30    ---  35,756.88   +15.73 (+0.04%)
NASDAQ   ---   15,235.72.  +9.01 (+0.06%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,296.08   -16.56 (-0.72%)

The SP500 opened at 4579, up 12 points, and immediately jumped up to 4583, on the way to 4599, the day's hi, before 10:30.  It moved sideways for an hour, then fell, reaching 4569, the day's lo, before 1:00.  It then rose, reaching 4587 at 3:45 before a hard 12 point fall into the close on a volume surge.  As bad as that sounds, this was a clearly up day by the substantial margins of 26 and 32 points. Also, there were new highs: 26 points intra-day and 8 at the close.

The DJI30 had a similar contour, hitting its hi, 35893, before 11:30 and its lo, 35735, after 12:30.  It recovered to 35855 before 3:30, then also fell hard into the close on a volume surge.  It also had a clearly up day, by 106 and 105 points, and new all time highs by 106 intra-day and 16 at the close.

The NASDAQ followed a similar path, though it went 28 points negative at its early afternoon lo.  It' late afternoon recovery was meager and it finished the day with the smallest gain.  It still had a clearly up day by 124 and 127 points.  It remains below the 9/07 highs by 19 points intra-day and 139 at the close.

The Russell 2000 opened flat, dropped briefly negative, then went positive, hitting its hi at 11:00.  At noon it slipped negative and stayed there the rest of the day.  It fell the last hour and a half, finishing with the day's worst performance.  Despite all that, it had a mixed day with the hi and lo higher by 7 and 4 pints, respectively.

So, this is a good news bad news kind of day.  Every index achieved at least a local intra-day hi, but the closes were close to the days' lows.  Nothing travels in a straight line.  I'm taking the late day activity to be part of counter-current motion to a continuing short term up trend.  Tomorrow will tell us more.

SP500 Closings -
10/25/19 - 3023
10/26/20 - 3401
09/24/21 - 4455
10/26/21 - 4575

NYSE Internals -  
A/D = 1498/1844 = 0.81
A/D Vol = 0.66
New Hi/Lo = 2o2/26 = 7.77

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Red Arrow Down

SP500 at the close  ---   4,551.68   -23.11 (-0.51%)

DJI30    ---  35,490.69   -266.19 (-0.74%)
NASDAQ   ---   15,235.84   +0.12 (+0.00%)

Russell 2000 ---   2,252.49   -43.58 (-1.90%)

The SP500 opened at 4580, up 5 points.  It slithered around neutral until 1:00 when it rose, reaching 4585, the day's hi, at 2:15.  From there, it fell hard into the close, losing 22 points in the last hour, and ending less than a point above the very late afternoon lo.  This is a clearly down day by 14 and 17 points.  The day's lo is still above the 9/02 hi. 

The DJI spent little time slightly positive early in the session, then spent the rest of the day in the red.  It was all down-hill from 2:15 on, with a steep fall in the last 20 minutes, landing shortly after and within a fraction of the lo.  This was a clearly down day by 58 and 244 points.  

The NASDAQ started positive and stayed in the green all day.  It hit its maximum after 2:00, then followed the other indexes down into the close, giving back 129 points to end the day at its lo for no gain.  This was an inside day by 20 points and the top and 38 at the bottom.  It is hovering under the 9/07 highs.

The Russell 2000 started negative and stayed there.  It slid down the entire day with a steep drop at the end.  It had a clearly down day by 26 and 44 points.  The lo is only 3 points above the 55 day EMA.  On Monday and Tuesday the Index achieved highs that were above the local hi of 9/02, but below the local highs in June and July.

If there is a 5 wave upward thrust, this motion could be counter-current; perhaps subwave iv of 3 at some level of trend.  Alternatively the upward thrust might have been corrective, in which case this is the beginning of a continuation down to new local lows. The next couple days should offer some clarity.

SP500 Closings -
10/25/19 - 3023
10/27/20 - 3391
09/27/21 - 4443
10/27/21 - 4553

NYSE Internals
A/D = 939/2379 = 0.39
A/D Vol = 0.23
New Hi/Lo = 92/49 = 1.88

Thursday, October 28, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,596.42   +44.74 (+0.98%)

DJI30    ---  35,730.48   +239.79 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ   ---   15,448.12   +212.28 (+1.39%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,297.98   +45.49 (+2.02%)

The SP500 opened at 4562, up 10 points and quickly rose to 4575, on the way to a hi of 4593, up 40 at 10:45.  From there it was mostly sideways, with a local lo of 4575 at 1:00.  At the end it reached  4597.55, missing an all time intra-day by less than a point, then hit a new all time closing hi by almost 22 points at 4596.42  on a volume surge.  This is a clearly up day by 13 and 11 points. 

The DJI30 followed a similar path, but at a lower level with a smaller gain.  It had an inside day by 93 points at the top and 55 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ followed a similar path, but at a higher level with a larger gain.  It had a clearly up day by 88 and 55 points.  It set new intra-day and closing highs, exceeding those of 9/07 by 49 and 74 points, respectively.

The Russell 2000 also followed a similar path, ands was the day's big winner, gaining over 2%.  But this was not enough to gain new local highs, since the index is still below the highs of Monday and Tuesday.

So what are we to make of all this?  Even with some new highs, the indexes might still be at inflection points where they cold be either pausing in up-trends or getting ready to turn, leading to new legs down.  For now, I'm sticking with the up-trends.  We'll know soon if this is wishful thinking.

SP500 Closings -
10/25/19 - 3039
10/28/20 - 3271
09/28/21 - 4353
10/28/21 - 4596

NYSE Internals
A/D = 2316/1014 = 2.2
A/D Vol = 2.24
New Hi/Lo = 139/45 = 3.09

Friday, October 29, 2021

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,605.38   +8.96 (+0.19%)

DJI30    ---  35,819.56   +89.08 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ   ---   15,498.39   +50.27 (+0.33%)

Russell 2000   ---  2,297.19   -0.79 (-0.03%)

The SP500 opened at 4573, off 24 points, and rose step-wise to 4604 at 12:30.  It fell back into negative territory, landing near 4590 at 2:30 and 3:15 before rising sharply into the hi, just moments before and about 3 points above the close.  This gives us a clearly up day by 11 and 5 points, and new all time highs by 10 points intra-day and 9 at the close.  

The DJI opened at 35712, off 18 points, and quickly rose to 35790.  It then dropped to 35633, the day's lo, off 97, at 10:30.  It rose to 35830 at 12:30, slipped back to 35710 at 2:30 and 3:15, then rose to 35853, the day's hi, just moments before the close. This was a clearly up day by 110 and 88 points. It misses a new intra-day hi by 40 points, but achieves a new closing hi by 63.

The NASDAQ opened at 15323, off 125 points, and the day's lo.  It rose step-wise the rest of the day, hitting the hi, 15504, moments before the close.  This was a clearly up day by 52 and 33 points, and reached new intra-day and closing highs by 52 and 50.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2297, off 1 point, and slithered around neutral until before noon, when it went mostly sideways slightly in the red until after 2:00.  It dropped to 2288, the day's lo, at 3:20, rose to 2299 at 3:47, then finished with a trivial loss of less than a point.  This is a mixed day with gains of 4 points at the hi and 34 at the lo, but no new highs were achieved.

I rated this day's action a green arrow, but not with a lot of conviction.  The increases were anemic. With the indexes futzing around at or near new highs it's hard to know what will happen next.  The NYSE internals were not strong today, with advances slightly below declines, but up volume dwarfed by down volume, This could be the end of a short term rally, or a spring board to new higher highs.  I don't know what to expect.  

Weekly changes -
SP500  +1.33%
DJI 30  +0.40%
NASDAQ  +2.71%
Russell 2000 +0.26%

SP500 Closings -
10/29/19 - 3037
10/29/20 - 3310
09/29/21 - 4359
10/29/21 - 4605

NYSE Internals
A/D = 1617/1709 = 0.95
A/D Vol = 0.32
New Hi/Lo = 155/46 = 3.37

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