Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Monday, February 15, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 15

Monday, February 15, 2021

Market's are closed for President's day.

Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,522.75   +64.35 (+0.20%)

The index opened at 31472, up 14 points, and immediately surged up to 31580, up 122.  After drifting down for 45 minutes, the Index surged up to an all time intra-day high of 31609 at 10:30.  It then slid again, hitting the day’s lo of 31444 shortly after noon. It rose again, hitting 31575 after 2:30.  From there, it staggered down into the close.  Still, this is a new all time closing hi, 64 points above last Friday’s all time closing hi.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 137 and 96 points, respectively.  The span was a rather modest 165 points.  The 10 day average has dropped from 424 on 2/05 to 260 today.

The day’s gain is small, but there are new highs, and the Index was only in the red for a brief moment at the low.  So I’m giving the day’s action a green arrow.

The other indexes were slightly in the red today, with the RU2000 getting the worst of it. A day of reckoning is coming, and after the *ultimate* all time hi [whenever that is,] the market will have lo to negative returns for a decade or more.  It might be in two years.  I don’t think it’s in two weeks.  Elliott waver Avi Gilburt is giving it 2 years or more of robust gains.  For now, though, enjoy the ride.

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.20% 
SP500 -0.06%
NASDAQ -0.34%
Russell 2000 -0.72%

DJI30 Closings -
02/15/19 - 25883
02/14/20 - 29398
01/15/21 - 30814
02/16/21 - 31522

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1515/1745 = 0.87
A/D Vol = 1.41
New Hi/Lo = 382/9 = 42.44

Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Green Arrow up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,613.02   +90.27 (+0.29%)

The index opened at 31486, off 37 points, and in less the 10 minutes hit the day’s lo of 31889.  It rose to 31615 a half hour later.  It slumped to 31436 at 11:15, then started slowly rising, reaching 31600 at 3:00.  In the next hour it hit near the hi of 31644 four times while staying above 31600.  In the last 5 minutes it fell 31 points on a volume spike.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 35 points and the lo lower by 105. The span was 305, the largest since 328 on 2/04, and most of this increase was on the lo side.  But - once again, there are new intra-day and closing highs, by 35 and 91 points, respectively.  Momentum was up very slightly across all the time frames I look at.

I would consider this an orderly advance, if the other indexes hadn’t all been down. They all had roughly similar contours, but only the DJI wound up in the green. The others were lower at the start and fell deeper at the late morning bottoms, so they had farther to recover and never got out of the red. So - a mixed day with a negative bias, as the NYSE Internals confirm.

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.29%
SP500 -0.03%
NASDAQ -0.58%
Russell 2000 -0.74%

DJI30 Closings -
02/15/19 - 25883
02/14/20 - 29398
01/15/21 - 30814
02/17/21 - 31613

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1377/1839 = 0.75
A/D Vol = 0.76
New Hi/Lo = 164/10 = 16.40

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,493.34   -119.68 (-0.38%)

The Index opened at 31559, off 54 points, and the day’s hi; it immediately fell to 31378, off 235. From there, it rattled around, hitting the lo of 31325, off 288 at 10:30.  It stayed below 31420 until about 1:20, and reached 31545 after 2:30.  It bumped up against that level two more times over the next hour before a 52 point slide into the close.

This is the first clearly down day since 1/29, with the hi and low down by rather small increments of 89 and 53 points, respectively. Similar to yesterday, all the indexes faltered in the morning and struggled to climb in the afternoon.  None of them made it into positive territory today, and the RU 2000 again had the worst of it.

Many analysts have been calling for a pull back, even after the 1416 point drop in late January.  The Index took only 5 days to recover then, and kept climbing right up to yesterday.  Before today, there were only two days this month where the Index closed down, and those were by the trivial amounts of 7 and 10 points.  So the last two day’s action might be just a minor hiccup.  Or not. The next few days should clarify what is happening.  Momentum has flattened at the 5 day level, but is still climbing over longer durations.

NYSE internals look weaker than they were during the late January slump, but on rather low volume.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.44% 

SP500 -0.38%   

NASDAQ  -0.72%    

Russell 2000 -1.67% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/15/19 - 25883

02/18/20 - 29232

01/15/21 - 30814

02/17/21 - 31493

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1046/2147 = 0.48

A/D Vol = 0.33

New Hi/Lo = 101/11 = 9.18

Friday, February 19, 2021

Green Arrow with a Yellow Tinge - Sideways

DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   31,494.32   +1.02 (+0.00%)

The Index opened at 31504, up 11, quickly reached 31580. fell back to 311525 and reached 31600 at 10:00.  It then struggled upward, reaching the day’s hi of 31648, up 154 at 11:30. This is another new intra-day hi, by the thin margin of 3.83 points. It tumbled down to 31515 after 10:00, made its way back up to 31575 at 1:45, and slid down to 31490 at 2:30.  After a rise to 31585 at 3:40, it slid hard landing at 31469 six minutes before a 25 point climb into the close.

This was a roll-coaster ride to nowhere, with a gain of just over a single point, or 0.00%.  Still, it’s a clearly up day, with the hi and low up by 89 and 184 points, respectively, to go with the all time hi.  I’m starting to wonder if the day’s lo is the value to watch most closely.  The span was a modest 178 points.  The 10 day average is down to 219 points, the lowest value in a year.  The previous lo was 217 points on 2/20/20!  We all know what happened after that.  Is this a sign of complacency and perhaps an omen?  I have no idea.

Momentum was mixed across various time spans with a minuscule drop at the 5 day level. Markets were also mixed, with the DJI flat, the SP slightly down, the NASDAQ slightly up, and the RU gaining over 2%.

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.00%
SP500 -0.19%
NASDAQ +0.07%
Russell 2000 +2.02%

DJI30 Closings -
02/19/19 - 25426
02/19/20 - 29248
01/19/21 - 30931
02/19/21 - 31494

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1046/2147 = 0.48
A/D Vol = 0.33
New Hi/Lo = 101/11 = 9.18

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