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Monday, February 22, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of February 22, 2021

Monday, February 22, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,521.69   +27.37 (+0.09%)

The Index opened at 31381, 0ff 113 points, and within 3 minutes dropped to the lo of 31287, 0ff 203. Then, at 10:45 it reached a local hi of 31486, off 8.  After a slight draw back, it arced up to a marginal new intra-day hi [by 6 points] of 31654, and hovered in that range from 2:00 to 3:00.  Then there was a 132 point slide into the close, thus missing a new closing hi by 91 points.

This is an outside day, with the hi up by a meager 6 points, and the lo lower by 183.  The gain at the close is trivial.  The 367 point span is the largest since 564 on 2/12, during the recovery from the late January slide.  But note that the majority of the change is on the lo side.

Measures of momentum are converging again.  At the lo end, it slid by a tiny amount for the 3rd straight day, while at longer ranges it’s rising.

All the indexes fell off at the end of the day.  The SP500 and NASDAQ stayed in the red throughout, the latter taking a hard slide.  The Russell 2000 spent a few hours in the green, but was negative at the end of the session.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.09% 

SP500 -0.77%   

NASDAQ  -2.48%    

Russell 2000 -0.69% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/22/19 - 26031

02/19/20 - 29348

01/19/21 - 30997

02/19/21 - 31522

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1564/1678 = 0.93

A/D Vol = 1.24

New Hi/Lo = 332/15 = 22.13

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways 

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,537.35   +15.66 (+0.05%)

The Index opened at 31502, off 20 points, and immediately fell to 31414, off 108.  It kept tumbling, hitting the day’s low of 31159, off 363, at 10:00.  It rose to 31480 after 11:00, then bumped down to 31300 at 1:00.  After that it was a rather steady climb to 31653.38, up 132, and a scant 0.10 under yesterday’s intra-day hi.  It was in that range for several minutes on either side of 3:30, followed by a 116 point slide into the close.

Today’s hi and lo are lower by 0.01 and 128 points, respectively.  The 16 point gain at the close was trivial, for the 3rd day in a row.  The span was 495 point, the largest since 564 on 2/02.  And again the vast majority of this expansion was at the low end.  The DJI keeps eking out these trivial closing gains, while the bottom is dropping out of the lows.  This cannot be a good omen.

After 4 days of tiny losses, the downward shifts in 5 and 8 day momentum are now perceptible.  Convergence continues as the longer range measures still rise.

The indexes all had roughly similar contours.  The DJI and SP500 both finished slightly in the green, while the NASDAQ and RU2000 were down.  

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.05% 

SP500 +0.13%   

NASDAQ  -0.50%    

Russell 2000 -0.88% 

DJI30 Closings -

02/22/19 - 26032

02/21/20 - 28992

01/22/21 - 30997

02/23/21 - 31537

NYSE Internals

A/D =  1257/1974 = 0.64

A/D Vol = 0.98

New Hi/Lo = 205/43 = 4.76

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 index at the close   —-   31,961.86   +424.51 (+1.35%)

The index opened at 31500, off 38 points. It spent the next 45 minutes bouncing in the range of 31421, 0ff 116 and 31540, close to neutral.  It then arced up, hitting a new all time intra-day hi of 32010, up 425 at 2:00.  From there it meandered sideways, staying above 31910.  The slide into the close in the last 3 minutes was only 25 points, but it happened on a volume surge.  I don’t know what to make of that.

Still, there was a new all time closing hi, as well, by the impressive amount of 349 points. This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo up by 356 and 263 points, respectively.  Unlike the last several days, most of the increase was at the hi end.  The span was 588 points, the largest since 698 on 1/29.  Momentum was up across the various time spans  - but only incrementally, despite the large gain at the close.

All the indexes has similar contours, with the Russell gaining the most, and the NASDAQ the least. In recent days the Russell has been the biggest mover, in either direction. 

Johnson and Johnson [JNJ] got a nice bump today: up 2.15 [1.34%] to 162.59.  Whether this is because of their vaccine approval or the general increase today is tough to discern.  It peaked at 170.48 on 1/26 and has been mostly down since.  It’s fallen from almost 3 standard deviations above its 233 day EMA to a little over 1 above in that time.  It’s a great company and a dividend aristocrat that I’d be interested in buying - but not at this kind of a premium.  Especially if it’s in a price decline phase.

% Changes -
DJI30  +1.35% 
SP500 +1.14%   
NASDAQ  +0.99%    
Russell 2000 +2.38% 

DJI30 Closings -
02/22/19 - 26032
02/24/20 - 27961
01/22/21 - 30997
02/24/21 - 31962

NYSE Internals
A/D =  2166/1091 = 1.99
A/D Vol = 3.38
New Hi/Lo = 394/21 = 18.76

Thursday, February 25, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,402.01   -559.85 (-1.75%)

The Index opened at 31958, off 6 points, and kept falling.  It was at 31740 before 11:00, and hit bottom at 31372, off 590, just after1:00.  After a rise to 31860 at 2:30, the index fell to the day’s lo of 31293, off a staggering 669 points, at 3:37.  It rose to 31480 ten minutes later, then slid into the close.

The market giveth, the market taketh away.  This fall more than completely undoes yesterday’s exciting gains. This is a clearly down day with the hi and lo off by 25 and 128 points, respectively.  These losses are dwarfed by the 560 point fall at the close - to the lowest level since 2/09.

Momentum measures continue to converge, for whatever that might be worth.

Today’s chart is from March of 2020 instead of a close up view.  I’ve placed a purple lower trend line connecting the March and November lows.  The red line connects November and January tops. Yesterday’s action came close. The yellow line is projected from the former all time high from February, 2020, just before the crash which nobody seems to remember.

Those lines might provide support or resistance.  The yellow line has offered some support since it was exceeded in November. Also notice how the January 29 lo was drawn down toward that line close to where it intersects the rising purple line.  Are these artifacts meaningful?  Time will tell, I suppose.  

All the indexes took a beating today, with the DJI getting bruised the least, and the Russell, as is typical, getting the most. Single day changes in excess of 3 percent are pretty rare, and might be cause for concern.  NYSE internals were terrible.

% Changes -
DJI30  -1.75% 
SP500 -2.45%   
NASDAQ  -3.52%    
Russell 2000 -3.69% 

DJI30 Closings -
02/22/19 - 26032
02/24/20 - 27961
01/22/21 - 30997
02/24/21 - 31962

NYSE Internals
A/D =  424/2859 = 0.15
A/D Vol = 0.17
New Hi/Lo = 291/61 = 4.77

Friday, February 26, 2021

Red arrow down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   30,932.37   -469.64 (-1.50%)

The index opened at 31401, off 1 point, then fell hard, hitting a low of 30911, off 491 at 10:30. From there it was a jagged climb to 31310 shortly after noon, followed by a jagged fall to 30970.  It rose again to 31215 after 3:00, drooped, rose again to 31230 at 3:39 and went into free-fall, dropping 298 points in the last 11 minutes.

This is an extremely down day, with the hi and lo off by 534 and 382 points, respectively.  The span was 539 points, a bit less than than yesterdays’ 691 or Wednesday’s 588. The market has suddenly become very dynamic - and not in a good way.  The hard fall in the waning moments is especially disturbing.

For the week, this Index is off 1.78%, which doesn’t sound serious, except at Wednesday’s new all-time hi it was up 1.49%.  The last 2 days have been brutal. Short term momentum, after hardly budging for two weeks, turned sharply down. 

The other indexes fared better.  The NASDAQ and RU2000 spent most of the day in the green and would up slightly positive.  The SP500 snaked around neutral and wound up slightly negative.

For the first time since October 30, declines outnumbered advances on the NYSE.

The markets surged from Nov 1 until this week.  JNJ was along for the ride until 1/26, and has tumbled since.  It received approval for its CV-19 vaccine today, and in response the stock was off 2.64%.  There are several good to great companies that have been beaten down while the market surge that started at the beginning of November was roaring,  This reinforces my conviction that the stock market is completely irrational.

% Changes -
DJI30  -1.50% 
SP500 -0.48%   
NASDAQ  +0.56%    
Russell 2000 +0.04% 

DJI30 Closings -
02/26/19 - 26078
02/26/20 - 27958
01/26/21 - 30937
02/26/21 - 30932

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1371/1891 = 0.73
A/D Vol = 0.30
New Hi/Lo = 57/65 = 0.877

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