Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Thursday, September 8, 2011

Five Large Cap Stocks . . .

. . . to ride out the uncertainty.  Thus sayeth Bob Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners.  Here is the vid.  If you can't spare the 5 minutes, here are his picks: CAT, AMZN, MCD, AAPL, and GOOG.  If there is any secret about these companies, it is hiding in plain sight.

My view is that when the bear attacks the market, everyone gets bloodied, and blue chippiness will be a porous shield at best.  So, just for kicks, we'll check back with these five every month or so to see how the picks are holding up.  Pavlik's time horizon is 3 to 5 years, and that's just about how long I expect stocks to collapse in a very major way, so this will be interesting.

Stock prices as of Sept 1 and yesterday:

This should provide another test case for competing theories.


Audrey said...

Good post - that is so funny! There is no way I would buy these stocks.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Check out what Cramer was saying over the years.

Cramer's Gold

So, whom does that eliminate? First, any company that is a commodity producer simply can't be owned, no matter what. The New Economy makes those be simply a function of low-cost producer with no ability ever to raise price. This, of course, is the crying shame of the way the Fed is trying to break the economy because the only place that could stand for a little inflation is in the deflationary commodity industries. - February 29, 2000

Against Cramer's advice, I bought CAT in 2000.

Cycle Killers, by James Cramer

Oh, and one other thing. Don't forget to sell them after they have doubled. Cyclical nirvana never lasted long, even in the golden age of U.S. manufacturing. Don't overstay your welcome. - March 18, 2002

Seems reasonable. I sold CAT in 2004 after it doubled. No joke.

Um, commodity costs, ah, yeah commodities should, um, keep going, uh, you know commodities won't, you know, are all unsustainable, they've moved up, copper is unsustainable, and uh, so therefore, and oil is unsustainable and so therefore you should sell CAT. Again, very, very sound argument but wrong. And when I say wrong I mean I think that will be wrong.... - May 31, 2007

Yeah, whatever you do don't sell CAT heading into the Great Recession.

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

Suzan said...


And I've been telling all my friends to get out of the market.


Jazzbumpa said...

Mark -

In Nov, 2010, I had not yet discovered your blog. The Cramer stuff is priceless. My opinion of Cramer.


Jazzbumpa said...

Susan -

I got out 7 years ago - same as Mark.