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Thursday, September 29, 2011

Thursday Market Action

The SP500 jump this morning to 1175.87 is about 24 points up from yesterday's close at 1151.74 - quite a bit bigger than I anticipated.  And, since it overlaps the wave one low around 1170, from just before closing on Tuesday, it cannot be wave 4 of that same cycle, per Elliot's rules.  Therefore, contra my expectation, yesterday's drop down into the close was a complete 5 wave structure.  More after the close.

Update:  If you only looked at daily closings, you'd think today was pretty good, with a .81% gain from yesterday's close.  But a look at what goes on throughout the day* in more and better detail reveals the truth.  This morning's top came before 10:00 a.m. and was the high for the day. The index gave back 35 points before recovering about 20 at the end.  The resistance at 1140, now several weeks old, once again came into play, as the low was 1139.93.

The decline from Tuesday's top continues apace, in a down-sloping channel.  The jump this morning was between a .50 and .618 retracement of the drop to yesterday's bottom.  This should complete waves 1 and 2, with wave three now in progress.

This is all early in wave 5 down, headed towards an intermediate low of 1000 to 1050.
* I see now that this will give you the most recent five trading days graph, whenever you hit the link.

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