Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Friday, September 23, 2011

Friday Market Action

Today, the SP500 traded mostly sideways in a rather narrow range with overlapping subwaves.  This is a corrective wave at some trend level.  I've labeled the big drop in considerable detail in the chart below.  This is done very conservatively, and I am not supremely confident that all of it is correct.   Frex, what I have labelled as 3, might only be iii, (or even 3) with the final bottom of 3 yet to come.  I am confident though, that the big drop that started late Wednesday and continued through the opening yesterday was a third wave at multiple levels of trend.

Today's bounce, such as it is, looks pretty anemic. Upside momentum, which was scant at the rise this morning, is already waning. From yesterday's low of 1114.22 to today's high of 1141.72 is 27.5 points. From the point labeled 2 on the graph, 1196.91, the total drop is 82.69.  So this bounce is a .33 retracement of that drop.  This is about the minimum you would expect for a weak correction, and suggests that my 3 might only be iii, or even 3.  No matter, though, there is lots more down-side action to be expected in the weeks, months and years ahead. 

Afterthought:  I should point out that there were at least two unsuccessful attempts to pierce through 1140 today.  What once once support now has become resistance.

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