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-- Brad Delong

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Monday, September 12, 2011

Monday Market Action

Asian and European stocks had big declines overnight.  This is blamed on European debt worries, which, of course,  makes perfect sense, since nobody had ever heard of the European debt situation until  a few hours ago, and it's new news that moves markets, since all other available knowledge had long-since been factored into prices.  The French CAC 40 is the worst off, down almost 4.5% at mid day local time.

I was anticipating a bounce in the SP500 for a day or two.  That looks less likely now, unless this is just the rolling follow up to our decline on Friday.  It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

UPDATE: It's not 3:30 yet, but I have rehearsal tonight and won't have a chance later for a chart or commentary.  European stocks meandered mostly sideways after a big drop at the opening. U.S. market action has been very choppy.  The day's chart looks like a hacksaw blade, generally slanting downward until late in the day.   There's too much overlap for me to be able to decipher a wave count.  Suffice it to say that there were a few more subdivisions that needed to unfurl to complete the thrust.  At any rate, there is now a clear loss of downside momentum (typical of a 5th wave,) and there will likely be a bounce over the next couple of days.

Most notable, I suppose is the SP500 index action around Kevin Cook's resistance point of 1140.   The index bounced off of a band bordered by 1137 and 1144 no fewer than 6 times today.   Now that the up-slanting channel (in my chart noted at the same link) has been pierced, it looks like Cook is on to something - in the short run anyway, and 1140 is the next resistance level to be breached.

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