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Friday, August 12, 2011

The Week in Stock Activity

From today's perspective, yesterday's action was clearly all up, and contained in a well defined trend channel.  That trend continued {Update: briefly} into this morning, and now appears to be faltering, as it bounces along the bottom of the channel -  which is holding for the nonce.  The index has bounced off of 1189 twice today.  This was the top of the channel at the opening, but was close to the bottom at noon, the time of the second bounce.  I'll go out on a limb and say the channel breaks, and the next intra-day move is down.

I'll update with a chart for the week at the end of the trading day.

Update (after closing):

This report puts a positive spin on the day, and de-emphasizes the negative for the week.  

But the high for the week - reached today - is 30 points below last Friday's high, which was 80 points below the previous Friday's high.   The first few minutes of today's trading came within a fractional tick of defining the high for the day.   The low at 10:10 a.m. was the other extreme of the day's range.   All of this came very close to being contained by the last few minutes of Thursday's action.  Bottom line:  The Thursday thrust is spent. and we now have sideways action at some low level of trend.   This is all playing out within subwave 4 of 3 down.  My  bottom target for wave 3 is still 1000 to 1050.   FWIW, note big volumes at the end of each trading day, except today.  Chart from Yahoo Finance, lines and words by me.

Based on this week's movements, I've highlighted a couple of support/resistance bands that might be interesting to watch as the next few day's play out.    Context here.

Ten days ago I said, "The market has been trending sideways since mid-February of this year.  Sideways moves are hard to figure.  Is it a pause on the way to new highs or the beginning of a new downward phase?  My money is on the latter."  Now we can say something similar about this week's action, and within it, today's action.  There might be another upthrust before the main downward trend reasserts itself, but I see no reason for bullish optimism.

1 comment:

Suzan said...

We're all watching.

And now we're watching you watching.