Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

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-- Brad Delong

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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Wednesday Market Action

The SP500 index jumped right up this morning to 1175, the .618 retracement level, then retreated.  This move has been dramatic, but does not look like an impulse wave.  That's not to say it can't go higher, but a turn down here would fit my narrative very nicely.

In the press of other things this evening, I won't have time to post an end-of-day chart, no matter what happens.  I'll probably get more commentary in before closing, though.

Closing Update: Hmmm.  The index popped up to a new intermediate high of 1178.55, and ended at 1177.60, just an eyelash above 1175, for a 1.3% gain on top of yesterday's 3+%.  Still, upward momentum peaked early in the day, and has since waned.  Have a look at the interactive chart for ^GSPC at Yahoo Finance.  Pick "5 day" from the time choices below the chart, and select MACD from the drop-down menu of technical indicators.  Momentum peaks rose from Monday morning through today's early going, and are now falling off.  Eyeball a channel around the rise, and you can see that prices have moved sideways and are now outside of it.

This mental exercise is all probabilistic, not a sure thing; but upward momentum seems to have peaked.  I expect action tomorrow to be on the down side.

In other news, I see gold is down 61 bucks today.  Contra the linked vid, I do not support buying either silver or the miners.  Look what happened in Moria.

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