Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Friday, August 26, 2011

Another Weak Week in the Market

Oh, No! Big Ben let us all down. His ho-hum 10:00 EDT speech caused the markets to fall.  Never mind that the SP500 gapped down at the opening and made a big spike up - 14 points or so, as of 10:35 - that started shortly after 10:00.  As I said yesterday, people get paid to make this stuff up. Anyway, the surge of the last several minutes is counter-current, and the move down from yesterday's opening looks very much like an impulse.  All of that, and more, should be given back by the end of the day.  I'll post a chart after closing.

Update:  I highlighted a phrase from this morning's start to this post, because it was so spectacularly wrong.    I live-blog the stock market as an exercise in personal humility (as if playing the trombone weren't enough.)  Interestingly it seems Bernanke buoyed up the market after all.  Go figure. 

The SP500 made a jagged climb up to almost 1180 shortly after noon, then broke out of its trend channel and spent the rest of the day quivering around 1175, the failed support line from 8/18, before closing at 1176.8. This is touted as the best market gain in two months.  Which is rather curious, since the index has been wiggling sideways (still or again?) in a collapsing band since the 8/05 high of 1218.11 and the 8/09 low of 1101.54, without covering any new ground.   Today's action was contained within the range of the previous two days.

On Tuesday, I said - "A rise above the subwave i low of 1184 calls this wave counting into  question; and if 1208 is topped, it all goes out the window."   Except for a quick needle thrust to 1190 yesterday morning, this is holding, for whatever that's worth. 

Anyway, here's a chart for the week, courtesy of Yahoo Finance, with my mark-ups.

The sideways motion can continue for a while, but not forever.  Nothing yet is suggesting that the main direction is up, so my bearish stance continues.

1 comment:

The Arthurian said...

One thing I like about this series: The Elliott technique gives you a consistent way to look at the data.