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Monday, August 22, 2011

Monday Market Action

I drew a trend channel on Friday as if the early morning SP500 peak were outside the channel.  That was a mistake.  Redraw the channel line with it touching the peak, and still parallel to the bottom channel line, and it touches today's initial jump up as well.  Since then, the index has drifted down a bit.  So far, we've been in that downward-sloping channel since shortly after 10 a.m Thursday - now, at a bit past 10:30 on Monday, this covers the equivalent of two full trading days.

This still looks like subwaves of 5 developing.  The entire wave should be days to weeks infolding.  More after closing.

Update (after closing):  Not much to add.  Today's action was contained within Friday's action.  This looks like another sideways day - but not really.  The index hit the bottom of the channel at the end of trading on Friday, then opened at the top today, and snaked around the channel midline for most of the day.  I can't read these waves, except to say that the down trend is continuing.

Update 2:  A little peek behind the numbers.

"No major economic reports came out Monday. Later in the week, traders will be sorting through figures on new home sales, chain store sales, durable goods orders and weekly claims for unemployment benefits to see if another recession could be on the way. The government will also release revised figures for second-quarter economic growth Friday. Another significant revision downward could alarm investors.

Three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was above average at 4.8 billion."

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