Taking Stock

Mish has screwed up political views, which also screw up his political economic views.  But when politics is out of the picture, such as in a  pure view of the stock market, his native intelligence and savvy analytical skills are able to operate unimpeded.

Here is a great example.

Bottom line: 

In spite of what most cheerleaders suggest, this is one strenuously overvalued market.

And this is based on P/E, as reported.  For reasons that Mish talks about, earnings, despite some feeble attempts at reforms in the post-Enron era, are wildly inflated, at least in the financial sector.

Is you favorite analyst taking a positive view?  It's what they do. Look it up.  Sorry, I'm nor registered either, but Mish provides a very telling graphic.   And this quote:

To better understand their accuracy, we undertook research nearly a decade ago that produced sobering results. Analysts, we found, were typically overoptimistic, slow to revise their forecasts to reflect new economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when economic growth declined.

Mish's conclusion:

On that basis, the market (and forward estimates) are both far frothier than the opening chart implies.

I have to agree.
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