Taking Stock -- Week of March 22, 2021

Monday, March 22, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,730.35   +102.38 (+0.31%)

The Index opened at 32602, off 26 points, and immediately fell to 32513, off 115.  It turned abruptly and started climbing, reaching 32725, up 97 at 10:45.  It ran sideways until 1:30, when it climbed to the range of 32810 between 2:30 and 3:15.  After that it fell 79 points into the close.

No new highs today - the last new closing hi was a week ago -  but a nice recovery after Friday’s loss, despite the fall-off at the end.  This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 48 points, and the lo higher by 7.  The span was 298.  The lo not falling is a mild plus, and momentum still looks very positive..

The SP500 and NASDAQ were up by larger margins than the DJI, but the Russell was in the red all day, and finished off almost a percent.

After advances Friday and today, the NASDAQ has gained back almost half of its loss since the 2/12 hi.  But momentum is still down, and the index doesn’t look strong to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it turn back lower this week.

If the NADAQ is up today, it seems the Russell 2000 must be down.  It had strong momentum from the beginning of November through February.  It’s now horizontal.  Is this a pause, like in last September-October, or a top?  Time will tell.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.32% 

SP500 +0.70%   

NASDAQ  +1.23%    

Russell 2000 -0.91% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/22/19 - 25502

03/20/20 - 19174 

02/22/21 - 31522

03/22/21 - 32731

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1449/1825 = 0.79

A/D Vol = 0.69

New Hi/Lo = 119/30 = 3.97

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,423.15   -308.05 (-0.94%)

The Index opened at 32692, 0ff 40 points, and quickly dropped to 32616, off 115.  But by 10:00 it reached positive territory, and topped at 32754 at 10:20.  But 20 minutes later it hit a new lo at 32590.   It climbed back to 32725 at 11:30, and stayed above 32675 until 1:30, when it abruptly fell to a marginal new lo of 32583.  It hovered in that area for an hour, then fell hard, hitting the bottom at 32356 after 3:30, only 67 points under the close.



This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 57 and 156 points, respectively. The span was 397 points.  Short term momentum turned down, but remains up at longer durations.



I read recently that the week after the quarterly options and futures closing date [last Friday] is often volatile, and tends to be negative.  That may be what we are seeing here. Also, today is the anniversary of the bottom of last year’s market crash that everybody seems to have forgotten.

All the indexes were down today, as were metals and oil.  The Russell 2000 got hit especially hard, losing over 3 1/2 points.

On the NYSE, new lows out-numbered new highs for the first time since 2/26.  The last time before that was a string of 5 days at the end of October, 2020.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.94% 

SP500 -0.76%   

NASDAQ  -1.12%    

Russell 2000 -3.58% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/22/19 - 25502

03/23/20 - 18592 [The Bottom] 

02/23/21 - 31537

03/23/21 - 32423

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  743/2553 = 0.29

A/D Vol = 0.16

New Hi/Lo = 60/106 = 0.57

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,420.06   -3.09 (-0.01%)

The Index opened at 32471, up 48 points, and quickly jumped to 32674, up 251.  After 11:00 it reached 32788, up 365.  By 1:15 if was back down to 32600, then to 32550 at 3:00.  And it kept falling, at an accelerating rate, dropping 115 points in the last 13 minutes to finish right at the day’s lo, on a volume spike, for a 3 point loss.

This was a disappointing round trip to nowhere.  The hi and lo were higher, by 34 and 62 points respectively.  So this was only a little over 3 points away from being a very marginal clearly up day.  The span was 370.  Short range momentum is down, and at longer ranges is flattening.

The NASDAQ was in the red almost the entire day.  The Russell, S&P and DJI followed it into the red, in that order.  

On Monday I said I expected the NASDAQ to slip further, and today I think that slip is not yet done.  The Russell was down even more this session, and that concurrence is not comforting.



On the NYSE, new lows again outnumbered new highs. I don’t see anything encouraging in today’s action.  I was cautiously optimistic, even into the afternoon, but the last hour took all that away.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.01% 

SP500 -0.55%   

NASDAQ  -2.01%    

Russell 2000 -2.35% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/22/19 - 25502

03/24/20 - 20704 

02/24/21 - 31962  [new closing hi that day]

03/24/21 - 32420

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1427/1862 = 0.77

A/D Vol = 0.50

New Hi/Lo = 70/129 = 0.54

Thursday, March 25, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,619.48   +199.42 (+0.62%)

The Index opened at 32347, off 73 points, and immediately dropped to 32260, off 160.  It rose to 32320 after 10:00, then plunged to 32071, off 349, after 11:00.  But a half hour later it was back up to 32330, off only [!] 90.  It kept climbing and reached positive territory [32420] after 12:30, and then stayed above 32430.  At 2:30 it resumed climbing, and reached the day’s hi, 32673, 8 minutes before dropping 53 points into the close, on a volume spike.

Today is, in a sense, the inverse of yesterday, dropping early then climbing into a gain.  But contrast that gain with a much lower hi and lo by 115 and 347 points, respectively.  The span was 602 points, the largest since 3/08, when the Index lost 346 points.  Even with today’s gain, short term momentum is falling.  Markets look quite unsettled.

All the indexes started the day negative, then worked their way into gains - the NASDAQ by the smallest amount, the Russell by the largest.  Gold, long treasuries and oil were all down a little.  On the NYSE new lows outnumbered new highs by more than 3 to 1.

We’ll look at the Russell 2000 in today’s chart.  Since reaching an all time hi at 2360 on 3/15 it’s dropped 7.5%.  The NASDAQ  topped on 2/12, and is now off 8%. Russell momentum started to flatten on 2/15, well in advance of the hi, and is now pointing down. There might be a support level between yesterday’s lo of 2100 and today’s close at 2183.  I placed a line at 2150 on the chart, near several closings since January. If that is breached, there could be support at 2100 and then 1950.  Everything is looking weak now, so those levels might get challenged.

Here is a contrary view.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.62% 

SP500 +0.52%   

NASDAQ  +0.12%    

Russell 2000 +2.29% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/25/19 - 25517

03/25/20 - 21201 

02/25/21 - 31492

03/25/21 - 32619

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1427/1862 = 0.77

A/D Vol = 0.50

New Hi/Lo = 70/129 = 0.54

Friday, March 26, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,072.88   +453.40 (+1.39%)

The index opened at 32681, up 62 points, the day’s lo, and quickly shot up to 32792, up 173.  It stayed between 32725 and 32890 until 2:00 when it dipped twice near 22700.  But after 3:30 it broke above that range and shot up over 170 points in the last few minutes.

No new highs, but this is a massively up day, with the hi and lo higher by 426 and 607 points, respectively.  The span was 418.  As impressive as the gain is, the sharp rise in the daily lo is even more so.  Momentum has turned back up.  The gain for the week is 1.36%.  Yesterday’s close was 9 points under last Friday’s.  

All the indexes has similar contours today, and all wound up positive. At the mid-afternoon lows, the NASDAQ and Russell both briefly touched negative territory before recovering.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.39% 

SP500 +1.66%   

NASDAQ  +1.24%    

Russell 2000 +1.76% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/25/19 - 25657

03/25/20 - 22552 

02/25/21 - 30932

03/26/21 - 33073

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2554/752 = 1.88

A/D Vol = 2.17

New Hi/Lo = 184/24 = 7.67