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Monday, March 15, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of March 15, 2021

Monday, March 15, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,953.46   +174.82 (+0.53%)

The Index opened at 32799, up 20 points, and immediately shot up to 32931, up 152. From there it quickly fell, hitting a lo of 32729, off 50, shortly after 10:00.  It went sideways for over an hour, then dropped to a new lo of 32630 at 11:30.  But an hour later it broke into positive territory, and reached 32875, up 96, at 2:30.  After a slump back to 32800 from 3:00 to 3:30, it rose 153 points into the close.  

The session looked dicey in the morning for all the indexes, but the afternoon was positive.  The NASDAQ finished up over a percent, and the other indexes made more modest but solid gains.  I guess shoes must be a hot commodity on Wall Street: Nike was up 3.2% - pretty impressive for a single day.  But The Weyco Group, that manufactures Florsheim, Nunn Bush and a few other brands, was up a stunning 16.26%, on 4 times average volume. I can’t find any reason for this.  It pays a 4.6% dividend, which, in context, now looks rather quaint.  

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 180 and 167 points, respectively.  The span was 344.  Momentum is clearly up now.  March 2020 was so long ago.

The Fed Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday; and options and futures contracts expire on Friday.  Things might be unsettled this week.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.53% 

SP500 +0.65%   

NASDAQ  +1.05.%    

Russell 2000 +0.31% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/12/19 - 25849

03/13/20 - 23186

02/12/21 - 31458

03/15/21 - 32953

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2054/1241 = 1.66

A/D Vol = 1.69

New Hi/Lo = 462/15 = 30.80

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at that close   —-   32,825.95   -127.51 (-0.39%)

The index opened at 32967, up 13 points, the day’s hi, and immediately started falling.  Shortly after 10:00 it reached 32830, off 123.  After a recovery to 32900, it fell further to 32794, off 159 at 11:00.  It rose to 32860 after 1:00, but fell back to 32778, off 175, at 2:30.  It rose again to 32890 at 3:30, then fell 64 points into the close.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 7 points, and the lo higher by 149.  The span was 189, only 16 points more than half of yesterday’s 344, and the narrowest since 178 on 2/19.  Closings were broadly down, for stocks, crude oil and long duration treasuries.  The NASDAQ and gold eked out tiny gains, but silver was off by more than a percent.

This is the first session in over a week with no new intra-day hi.  Today’s peak was only 7 points under yesterday’s, though.  Along with the big increase at the low end, this loss in the DJI is really not too bad.  Unless there are more drops this week.  The upward thrust of momentum was unaffected - for now.  As always, follow-through tells the real story.  The Fed open Market Committee meets tomorrow, and options and futures expire on Friday.  As Rachel says, watch this space.

% Changes -
DJI30  -0.39% 
SP500 -0.16%   
NASDAQ  +0.09.%    
Russell 2000 -1.72% 

DJI30 Closings -
03/15/19 - 25849
03/16/20 - 20189
02/16/21 - 31522
03/16/21 - 32825

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1120/2156 = 0.52
A/D Vol = 0.33
New Hi/Lo = 227/15 = 15.13

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,015.37 +189.42 (+0.58%)

The Index opened at 32825, within a half point of yesterday’s close.  Between 10:30 and 11:00 it hit the day’s lo at 32782.  After noon, it reached 32957, up 131. It slipped back to 32850 at 2:00, then quickly rose to 33035 15 minutes later.  From there it chopped up and down, 4 times hitting near the hi of 33048, only 33 points above the close.

This is a clearly up day, with he hi and lo higher by 81 and 4 points, respectively. The span was 265 points; rather modest in the context of the last month.  Upward momentum is firmly established.  The 32780 - 32850 range might be support level in the near term.

Except for the dip in morning, the DJI was positive all day.  The other indexes were all negative until 2:00, then leaped into positive territory when the Fed released its latest economic projections and policy statements.  They then moved sideway into their respective closes.  Evidently Mr. Market liked the Fed’s pronouncements — but not too much, since the gains were modest.  The expectation is for economic growth near 6%, which would be phenomenal, and a strong recovery in employment, with inflation only a little above 2% by the end of the year.

Sounds good to me.

% Changes -
DJI30  +0.58% 
SP500 +0.29%   
NASDAQ  +0.40.%    
Russell 2000 +0.73% 

DJI30 Closings -
03/15/19 - 25849
03/17/20 - 21379
02/17/21 - 31613
03/17/21 - 33015

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1804/1245 = 1.27
A/D Vol = 2.40
New Hi/Lo = 226/26 = 8.69

Thursday, March 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,862.30   -153.07 (-0.46%)

The Index opened at 32928, off 87 points, and quickly shot up to 33086, so right away there is a new intra-day hi.  But it then turned down and fell to 32990.  From there it surged higher to 33228, another new all time intra-day hi, shortly after noon.  It slipped to 33100 at 1:00, rebounded to 33200 at 2:00, then fell hard into the disappointing close.

In a weird contrast to the 153 point loss at the close, the hi and lo were higher by 180 and 40 points, respectively.  The span was 397.  Evidently the enthusiasm following the Fed announcements yesterday was short lived, though.  I fear today might have been a turning point.  Except for the finance sector, which was up a half percent, everything was down today - stocks - in every cap size and sector, bonds, gold, metals, oil, commodities. Nothing was spared.

All the indexes reached their daily highs at 12:15, but only the DJI was in the green.  They all fell in unison until 1:00, then rose slightly together until 2:00.  After that they all fell hard to the end, in near lock-step.  

Let’s have a look at the NASDAQ in today’s chart.  It hit it’s all time closing hi, 14095, on February 12, and its all time intra-day hi, 14175, in the next session on the 16th, just over a month ago. It dropped to a local lo of 12397, off 12.5% on 3/03.  This is enough of a loss to call it a correction. But I wonder if it’s done falling.  It recovered to 13621 on 3/16.  This is a .688 retracement, a little long of the ideal .618.  So - is the index recovering, or is there more downside?  Today the index opened down 176 points from yesterday’s close.  Today’s hi of 13376 is 244 points under Tuesday’s.  And today’s loss, landing at 13116 at the close, was 3.02%.  It is now 6.95% below its peak value.

% Changes -
DJI30  10.46% 
SP500 -1.48%   
NASDAQ  -3.02%    
Russell 2000 -2.94% 

DJI30 Closings -
03/18/19 - 25914
03/18/20 - 18592 [!]
02/17/21 - 31493
03/18/21 - 32862

NYSE Internals
A/D =  702/2614 = 0.27
A/D Vol = 0.37
New Hi/Lo = 338/34 = 9.94

Friday, March 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,627.97   -234.33 (-0.71%)

The index opened at 32858, off 4 points, and quickly dropped to 32505, off 357.  From there it chopped higher, reaching 23760 at noon.  It then moved sideways in a range from 32690 to 32770 until 3:45 when it took a 140 point dive into the close.

This was a dramatically down day, with the hi and lo lower by 369 and 326 points, respectively.  The span was 353.  The loss for the week was 0.71%.   Momentum tired down at the 5 day level, but is still up for the longer measures

All the indexes were negative in the morning.  The others recovered by mid-day, but the S&P then slipped to a small negative at the end.  So the markets are quite unsettled.  This was the expiration date for futures and options, and that might have contributed to volatility. NYSE volume was about 3x normal.  We’ll need to wait for next week for clarification.

I’m most concerned about the NASDAQ.  Today’s close put a tiny uptick on the chart I posted yesterday.  But it is still more than 6% off from it’s mid-February top, and looks very weak.

% Changes -
DJI30  -0.71% 
SP500 -0.06%   
NASDAQ  +0.76%    
Russell 2000 +0.88% 

DJI30 Closings -
03/19/19 - 25887
03/19/20 - 20087 [!]
02/19/21 - 31494
03/19/21 - 32628

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1797/1463 = 1.23.
A/D Vol = 0.86
New Hi/Lo = 105/38 = 2.76

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