Taking Stock -Week of September 27, 2021

Monday, September 27, 2021

Arrows, arrows, everywhere – who knows?

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,869.37 +71.37 (+0.21%)

SP500 --- 4,443.11 -12.37 (-0.28%)

NASDAQ --- 14,969.97 -77.73 (-0.52%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,281.00 +32.93 (+1.46%)

The DJI opened at 34739, off 59 points, and immediately started climbing. It reached a hi of 35061, up 263 at 10:30, then fell back to 43950 at 11:00. It dropped to 34880, up 82, at 1:00, then moved sideways, mostly between those 2 levels, then fell off a bit at the end. The main direction after 10:30 was down. Still, this was a clearly up day by 204 points at the top and 91 at the bottom. The span was 322.

The SP500 opened near its lo, went to 4457, 2 points positive at 10:30, hit the bottom at 4436 before 1:00, rose just under positive territory between 2:00 and 3:30, then landed near the low. The net of this up and down motion was an inside day by 6 points at either end, and a small loss at the end. The span was 14 points.

The NASDAQ was the inverse of the DJI. It opened lo, rose erratically all day, but never made it into the green. It had a clearly down day by 64 and 82 points.

The Russell 2000 started slightly positive, climbed until 11:00, then went mostly sideways, hitting its hi at 2:30, then sliding into the close for a gain of almost a percent and a half. It had a clearly up day by 33 and 9 points.

Every index went its own way. It's hard to know what to make of a day like this. The Russell had the strongest showing, and the NASDAQ had the weakest. Nothing today suggests that the current trend is up. Until that happens, I suspect that the downward thrust is continuing.

DJI Closings -
9/27/19 - 26820
9/25/20 - 27174
8/27/21 - 35455
9/27/21 - 34869


NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1972/1346 = 1.47
A/D Vol = 2.57

New Hi/Lo = 118/47 = 2.51

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,299.99   -569.38 (-1.63%)

SP500   ---   4,352.63   -90.48 (-2.04%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,969.97   14,546.68-423.29 (-2.83%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,281.00   2,229.78-51.23 (-2.25%)

The DJI opened at 34748, off 122, and fell hard for a half hour, reaching 34500.off 369, at 10:00.  It then slithered down to the lo of 34255, off 615, after 1:00 and again an hour later.  It rebounded to 34520, off 349, after 3:00, but then fell again, landing 45 points above the low.  This is a clearly down day by 263 and 485 points.  The span was 544.

The SP500 opened off 24 points, and quickly fell deeper into the red.  It had a clearly down day by 38 and 90 points.

The NASDAQ opened off 183 points, followed the other indexes down, and had a clearly down day by 185 and 325 points.

The Russell 2000 followed suit and had a clearly down day by 14 and 20 points

Yesterday was ambiguous and confusing.  Not so today, when the indexes were all sharply down with similar contours.  But – no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer.  Despite the DJI, SP500 and NASDAQ all achieving new all time highs between August 16 and September 7, they all have been trading in ranges since early July or longer.  The DJI has been moving sideways since early May, and the Russell since early February.

I still believe the current waves from recent highs are down in all the indexes.  But they will all have to fall at least into their resistance zones to confirm.

DJI Closings -

9/27/19 - 26820

9/28/20 - 27584

8/27/21 - 35455

9/28/21 - 34300

NYSE Internals – Extremely weak today

A/D = 654/12663 = 0.25

A/D Vol = 0.23

New Hi/Lo = 77/77 = 1.00

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,390.72   +90.73 (+0.26%)

SP500   ---   4,359.46   +6.83 (+0.16%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,512.44   -34.24 (-0.24%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,225.31   -4.47 (-0.20%

The DJI opened at 34260, up 60 points.  It quickly dropped about 55, then shot up, rising over 34500 by 10:00.  It zig-zagged along, dropping to 34370 after 1:30.  It then quickly rose, reaching 34560, up 260 at 2:15, and the hi of 34580 a half hour later.  Sadly, though, it fell hard – 190 points -  in the last half hour, landing only 85 points above the lo.  This is an inside day with the hi lower by 218, and the lo higher by 51.  The span was 274.

The SP500 followed a similar path, leading to a smaller gain.  It had an inside day by 34 points at the top and 9 at the bottom.

The NASDAQ had wider swings, dipping into the red around mid-day and again at the end for a small loss at the close.  It had a clearly down day by 141 points at the top and 46 at the bottom.

The Russell 2000 was similar to the NASDAQ, with more time in the red, but a smaller loss at the end.  It had a clearly down day by 40 points at the top and 6 at the bottom.

If there is anything encouraging here, it is the the relative small decreases in the daily lows.  Also, today's moves are rather inconsequential on their own.  As I said yesterday “no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer.”  That is still true.  So, I still think the current short term trend is down. 

DJI Closings -

9/27/19 - 26820

9/29/20 - 27453

8/27/21 - 35455

9/29/21 - 34391

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1946/1370 = 1.42

A/D Vol = 1.11

New Hi/Lo = 57/68 = 0.84

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,843.92   -546.80 (-1.59%)

SP500   ---   4,307.54   -51.92 (-1.19%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,448.58   -63.86 (-0.44%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,204.37   -20.94 (-0.94%)

The DJI opened at 34468, up 77 points, and immediately jumped to 34557, up 167.  For an instant.  From there it was a rough tumble to 33904. off 486 at 12:15.  It bounced near that level until 1:30 when it rose, hitting 34160 before 3:00.  It then went mostly sideways, staying above 34040 until after 3:30, when it broke sharply down, to close within 10 points of the late day lo.  

This is a clearly down day by 23 points at the top and 473 at the bottom.  The span is a stunning 724 points, the largest since 914 on 3/04/21.  

The SP500 also started positive, followed a similar path as the DJI, and ended with a smaller negative.  It had a clearly down day by 3 points at the top and 49 points at the bottom.

The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour, but spent more time in the green for most of the morning and again in mid-afternoon; but the late afternoon slide took it negative by almost a half percent.  It had a clearly down day by 44 and 49 points.

The Russell 2000 was similar to the SP500 and lost almost a percent.  It had a clearly down day by a fraction of a point at the top and 17 at the bottom.

Each index is approaching, but still above its respective support zone.  So on a medium term basis, motion is still sideways.  On a short term basis, it's still down.  The sharp fall off at the end of today's session is especially disturbing.

DJI Closings -

9/30/19 - 26917

9/30/20 - 27782

8/31/21 - 35361

9/30/21 - 33844

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 1221/2151 = 0.57

A/D Vol = 0.35  –  total volume was 27% above its 34 day average

New Hi/Lo = 53/82 = 0.65

Friday, October 1, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,326.46   +482.54 (+1.43%)

SP500   ---  4,357.04   +49.50 (+1.15%)

NASDAQ   ---   14,566.70   +118.12 (+0.82%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,241.63+37.26 (+1.69%)

The DJI opened at 33931, up 87 points, and immediately shot up to 34117, up 273.  From there it fell, landing at 33786 before and after 10:30.  Then there was a more or less steady climb that reached the hi of 34491, up 647 at 3:15.  But from there it fell 164 points into the close.  Contra the 483 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 67 and 48 points, respectively.  The span was 705 points, 19 under yesterday's.  

 

This is a nice gain, but the close is still  64 points lower than Wednesday's, and 735 points under Monday's hi.  So the Index is, at best, treading water, and the short term trend is still down.

The SP500 opened positive, had a brief excursion into negative territory then rose until late in the day, when is slumped like the DJI. Its hi and lo were lower by 7 and 18 points.  The close is only about 4 points above Tuesday's and 86 below Monday's.

The NASDAQ followed a similar path.  Its hi and lo were lower by 26 and 120 points.  The close is 20 points above Tuesday's and 400 under Monday's

The Russell 2000 had an outside day with the hi higher by 12 points and the lo lower by 7.  It was the day's big gainer.  But its close was only 12 points above Tuesday's and 40 under Monday's.

The net of all this is just another zig in the ongoing medium sideways trajectory, and the short term trend down. 

Weekly Changes -

DJI30 -1.36%

SP500 -2.21%

NASDAQ -3.20%

Russell 2000 -0.29%

DJI Closings -

10/01/19 - 26573

10/01/20 - 27817

9/01/21 - 35313

10/01/21 - 34326

NYSE Internals – 

A/D = 2340/1001 = 2.34

A/D Vol = 3.98

New Hi/Lo = 91/79 = 1.15