Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, April 5, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 5, 2021

Monday, April 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,527.19   +373.98 (+1.13%)

The Index opened at 33222, up 69 points, and quickly shot up to 33475, up 322.  It continued climbing, reaching the hi of 33618, up 465 after 12:30.  It slid back, but remained above 33515, until it briefly dipped under 33500 after 3:00, then had a choppy rise into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by the substantial margins of 451 and 237 points, respectively.  The span was 396.  This is a great start to the week, but the SP500 and NASDAQ had even more impressive gains, up by 1.44% and 1.67%

For now, animal spirits have captured the market in a big way.  The rotation into small caps and value might have reversed, as those segments were laggards today - though almost also sectors were up.

Volume was about normal for the DJI, but quite low for the SP500, NASDAQ and NYSE.  Russell volume number was not available.

I always talk about follow through, so we’ll have to see what tomorrow brings.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.13% 

SP500 +1.44%   

NASDAQ  +1.67%    

Russell 2000 +0.49% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/03/20 - 21053

03/01/21 - 31496

04/05/21 - 33527

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2095/1238 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 1.52

New Hi/Lo = 318/15 = 21.20

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Orange Arrow Down-ish

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,430.24   -96.95 (-0.29%)

The Index opened at 33500, off 27 points, and quickly fell to 33438, off 89.  At 10:00 it reached 33545, up 18, but fell back again to 33478 before 10:30.  It stayed above that level until 1:00 when it dipped down to 33450.  After a couple bounces, it dropped below 33225 at 3:00.  It stayed at about the level for 40 minutes, then dropped again, hitting the day’s lo of 33380 a few minutes before rising 50 points into the close on a volume surge.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 73 points, and the lo higher by 158.  The bright spot here is the increase in the lo.  The span is an exceedingly narrow 164 points - the least since 151 on January 21st.

The contour was down most of the day, and all in the red except for a brief moment in the first hour of trading.  The other indexes spent most of the day in the green, but wound up negative by small amounts.

Yesterday, I neglected to mention that the DJI reached new all time highs, by 359 points intra-day, and 356 at the close. The SP500 also reached new highs yesterday, at 4083 intra-day and 4078 at the close. Today it reached another intra-day hi at 4086, but missed by 4 points at the close. The NASDAQ is still 2.8% under its all time closing hi, and the Russell is under its by 4.3%.

I mentioned follow-through yesterday, and as such, today’s action is rather lame.  But this might just be a pause, and follow-through lasts more than one day.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.29% 

SP500 -0.10%   

NASDAQ  -0.05%    

Russell 2000 -0.25% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/06/20 - 22680

03/05/21 - 31496

04/06/21 - 33430

NYSE Internals

A/D =  2002/1312 = 1.53

A/D Vol = 1.60

New Hi/Lo = 285/7 = 40.71

Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   33,446.26   +16.02 (+0.05%)

The Index opened at 33445, up 15 points, and quickly rose to 33522, up 92.  There was a choppy decline to the lo of 33348, off 82 at 12:30.  It reached 33440 after 2:00, fell back to 33375 after 3:30, then rose 71 points into the close, with a volume surge in the closing moments.  

The hi and lo were lower by small margins: 23 and 32 points, respectively.  The span was 174 points, only 10 more than yesterday’s. 

The Index was positive at the beginning and end, but spent most of the day in the red.  The SP500 was positive most of the day with a couple excursions into the red.  The NASDAQ snaked around neutral and wound up slightly negative.  The contours for these 3 were roughly similar, just positioned differently creative to yesterday’s close. But the Russell was down all day and closed near its lo.  

Volume has been close to normal for the Russell this week, but quite low for the other indexes and the NYSE.

% Changes -
DJI30  +0.05% 
SP500 +0.15%   
NASDAQ  -0.07%    
Russell 2000 -1.60% 

DJI30 Closings -
04/05/19 - 26425
04/07/20 - 22654
03/05/21 - 31496
04/07/21 - 33446

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1407/1884 = 0/75
A/D Vol = 0.70
New Hi/Lo = 223/10 = 22.3

Thursday, April 8, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,503.57   +57.27 (+0.17%)

The index opened at 33470, up 24 points, and quickly fell to 33343, off 104. It rose again and by 10:45 was hovering around 33415.  It reached near the hi of 34470 - right where it started - from 12:15 to 2:30, then climbed to a higher hi of 33504 before 3:30.  After a draw back to 33475 at 3:45, the Index climbed to the final hi of 33507, less than 4 points above the close, on a volume surge.

Contra the small increase at the close, the hi and lo were both lower, by the tiny increments of 15 and 5 points.  The span was 164.16 points, 0.2 points under Tuesday’s 164.36.  This is now the lowest since 151 on 1/21.


The Index is hovering under its recent all time highs, and momentum is still broadly up. The NASDAQ is also, but further from its highs.  As is the Russell, which might be forming a head and shoulders pattern. That is a bearish sign that bears watching.  In contrast, the SP500 reached new intra-day and closing highs today.  So the actions of the several indexes are mixed.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.17% 

SP500 +0.42%   

NASDAQ  +1.03%    

Russell 2000 +0.88% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/07/20 - 22654

03/05/21 - 31496

04/07/21 - 33446

NYSE Internals

A/D =  2058/1233 = 1.67

A/D Vol = 0.96

New Hi/Lo = 245/9 = 27.22

Friday, April 9, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,802.78   +299.21 (+0.89%)

The Index opened at 33526, up 23 points, and quickly rose to 33654, up 151. Then it started to drop, hitting 33540 at 10:20. From 11:00 to 1:40 it stayed between 33565 [up 61] and 33610 [up 106.6.]  It then hovered near 33650 until 3:15 when it went sharply up 150 points into the day’s hi of 33811, about 10 points above the close.

This would have been a clearly up day even without the surge at the end.  The day’s final hi and lo were higher by 304 and 184 points, respectively.   The span was 285, 34 points above the 10 day average, but well below the 396 point average since mid-October.

There were new all time intra-day and closing highs, by 193 and 273 points, respectively.   Volume was up a bit, but still below normal.  The SP500 made all time highs yesterday, and exceeded them today.  The NASDAQ and Russell are still below their recent highs.  All the indexes improved in the final moments. The Russell had been red all day, but eked out a minuscule gain at the end.

NYSE volume has been low all month, and was even lower today.  SP500 volume today was less than half of what it has been recently.  In a Seeking Alpha article last night, Hale Stewart said this.

“I am very old school when it comes to chart reading. I don't like many indicators, instead focusing on prices, EMAs, and volume for most of my analysis. Volume is a very important indicator because it tells how excited or not traders are. A rally that is accompanied by a rising volume tells us that an increasing number of people want to ‘get in on the action.’ The opposite is also telling; it tells us that traders aren't that excited about a move higher. This week's declining volume is important and could signal a lack of bullish enthusiasm for this rally. At the very least, it's something to pay attention to.”

It’s an over-bought and over-valued market.  But that can go on for a long time. And the volume numbers are cause for concern.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.77% 

SP500 +0.89%   

NASDAQ  +0.51%    

Russell 2000 +0.04% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/09/19 - 26151

04/09/20 - 23719

03/09/21 - 31833

04/09/21 - 33801

NYSE Internals

A/D =  1821/1472 = 1.24

A/D Vol = 1.17

New Hi/Lo = 267/15 = 17.80

No comments: