Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Monday, January 16, 2012

GDP Revisions

This is just a short post to illustrate the magnitude of GDP revisions.  I downloaded quarterly GDP data from BEA in June 2011.  I went back to BEA this morning to update the file. Forgetting about GDP revisions, I thought I'd be adding 2 or three more quarters of data, but discovered that all the numbers since Q2 2003 had been revised.  Prior values are unchanged.   Plotted below is the difference between the June, 2011 numbers and what I found this morning.




The depth of the trough in Q3 2009 was $194 Billion worse than we thought just a few months ago.  I was surprised to see the revisions go back a full 9 years.

Tyler Cowan got one thing right.  We are poorer than we think we are.

Cross Posted at Angry Bear

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