Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Thursday Market Disaster Action


Today's low - so far - is 1117.81.   OK.  I'll call this a convincing break of 1140. And punching through the September 12 low of 1136.07 pretty much eliminates the possibility of wave IV still being alive.  So, this is wave V down, in earnest.   And this is only the beginning.   From Tuesday's top until now - 2:20 Thursday afternoon - we have been moving in a single wave down.  My assessment at this moment is that the drop from about 2:20 yesterday is a low degree third wave, with the third of that third from about 1192 at 3:13 to the opening to the temporary bottom at 1135 a few minutes after the opening this morning.  Wave 3 was complete at about 1128 at about 10:00.  Subwave 4 peaked at about 1144 at 10:22 a.m.  Wave 5 is underway, and may be in subwave 3 of 5.  Remember, this is all within wave 1 of V.

I still think the range of 1000 to 1050 is about right for this leg of the decline.  More after the close.

UPDATE:

Today's low of 1114.22 might have been the bottom of wave 3, or only the bottom of wave iii of 3, with waves iv and v to follow.  I lean towards the latter interpretation.  Tomorrow's action should clarify.  If there is a sizable bounce, then wave 3 has finished.  If there is a small bounce and further decline, than wave 3 is continuing.   At any rate we are in wave V down.   These possibilities are indicated on the chart.




In this fall, 1140 offered no resistance.  Third waves have that kind of power.

Here's some insight from David Zervos.  The meat of what he says relates less to the market, per se, than to the whole economy - with a bit of global perspective.





2 comments:

Suzan said...

Thanks for continuing to pursue your unique brand of analysis, jazzb.

It's extremely useful when measured against what we see daily on the "Marketing of the American Dream TV."

I'm going to quote you extensively on my site.

Again.

Suzan

Jazzbumpa said...

Hi Suzan -

Always happy to see you stop by.

Feel free to quote and attribute.

Cheers!
JzB