Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Wednesday Market Action
Things move quickly from easy to difficult. The SP500 is in a corrective wave, and they are hard to read. At this point I'm not sure how much of the decline is being corrected. My wave count from Monday looks OK, but does not stack up well with what has happened since.
If this is a correction of the drop from the 9/29 close, as I was expecting, than it is an extremely deep retracement, covering more than .786 of the drop. Not impossible, I suppose, but a very awkward and unlikely outcome.
If the correction is from the early morning high of 9/29, then today's high of 1146.07 is only a couple of points beyond the .666 retracement level at 1142.1. Should the advance not be finished, the next Fibonacci point would be .786 retracement at 1154.25.
If the correction is from the 8/31 high of 1230.71, then it has not reached the .50 retracement level at 1152.74.
The index made three or four attempts to pierce 1140 in the last couple of trading hours, and after finally succeeding, slipped a bit to close at 1144.03.
Today's advance came against weakening momentum and lower volume on the NYSE. Up volume was high, but not quite as high as yesterday's.
Hopefully, tomorrow's action will clear some of the mud from the water.