Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

Copyright Notice

Everything that appears on this blog is the copyrighted property of somebody. Often, but not always, that somebody is me. For things that are not mine, I either have obtained permission, or claim fair use. Feel free to quote me, but attribute, please. My photos and poetry are dear to my heart, and may not be used without permission. Ditto, my other intellectual property, such as charts and graphs. I'm probably willing to share. Let's talk. Violators will be damned for all eternity to the circle of hell populated by Rosanne Barr, Mrs Miller [look her up], and trombonists who are unable play in tune. You cannot possibly imagine the agony. If you have a question, email me: jazzbumpa@gmail.com. I'll answer when I feel like it. Cheers!

Sunday, June 26, 2011


Here are a  couple of charts, and less verbiage than I usually spout.

First, Unemployment (population survey) from the BLS.  I've averaged the monthly data to get a series of annual numbers.

This is color coded by president's admin, red for Rethug, blue for Demo.   Also included are term averages for each admin.  The first thing to note is an incoming Rethug ALWAYS gives us an immediate and sharp increase in unemployment -- ALWAYS!.  Obama is reaping what Shrub has sown, but I have no sympathy for him, since he has continued the idiocy, paid no attention to the unemployed, and meanwhile the "Tough Shit" Rethugs have had their way with them.

Ponder that for an hour or a month.

Next, Kennedy-Johnson and Clinton gave us essentially monotonic decreases in unemployment for the entire span of an 8-year term.  Is anyone surprised by this?

Next note that term averages don't really tell the story.  You have to look at the beginning and end points.

Here is a different presentation of the same data.

Busy as hell, I know.  Let's sort it out.  The pink line is an 8-Yr moving average.  The slanted blue line is a linear best fit provided by Excel.  The yellow line is the average of the entire series, with green and red parallel lines one Std Dev above and below.  Speaking of parallel lines, I threw a trend channel bottom across the  1953 and 2006 extremes, and a parallel line projecting from the 1958 top. They are very close to parallel to, and equidistant from, the blue trend line, which I find to be astonishing.

This makes an intriguing picture that tells a very ugly story.

I don't see any way unemployment will ever get as low as 5% again.


Jerry Critter said...

I have a couple of comments/observations.

1. Republicans are great on increasing UNemployment. If you want jobs, you need democrats in control.

2. I suspect the trend line upward in unemployment will correlate with jobs being sent overseas. No only have we lost jobs due to the economy, we have lost jobs due to businesses sending them overseas -- a double whammy!

Jazzbumpa said...

Jerry -

I agree.


Roj said...

Create 25 million jobs thru direct stimulus, you'll have employers competing for skilled employees driving wage growth back up. The US is no longer the high wage country it once was prior to 1973. 2010 census report=A male working full time year round, had a median income of 47k in 2010, adjusted for inflation, 49k in 1973.