Taking Stock. Week of May 24, 2021

Monday, May 24, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI Index at the close --- 34,393.98 +186.14 (+0.54%)

The Index opened at 33493, up 46 points. It climbed to 43450, up 242 at 11:30, then fell back to 34370 an hour later. It did not go below that level again. Instead, it climbed to the hi of 34473 at 2:15 and hovered near that level for about an hour. It then slumped about 50 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo up by 57 and 131 points, respectively. The span was 219.

The SP500 and NASDAQ had similar contours to the DJI. The Russell 2000 had more exaggerated slumps at mid-day and the end. All the indexes had clearly up days, and all remain below their recent lows. The NASDAQ gained the most.

This is the 3rd consecutive clearly up date, by modest margins, and all the indexes are slowly moving above their respective support zones.

That's about it.

% changes -
DJI30 +0.54%
SP500 +0.99%
NASDAQ +1.41%
Russell +0.54%

DJI Closings -
5/24/19 - 25586
5/22/20 - 24995
4/23/21 - 34043
5/24/21 - 34394

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2174/1153 = 1.89
A/D Vol = 2.02
New Hi/Lo = 202/26 = 7.77

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Red/Orange Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   ---   34,312.46  -81.52 (-0.24%)

The Index opened at at 34429, up 35 points, and quickly rose to 34511, up 117.  It dropped to 34380 before 10:00 and went sideways until after 11:00, when it dropped to a lo of 34313, off 81. It rose to 34460 before 12:30, then dropped again, and kept dropping until it hit the day's lo of 34266, off 128 points, just a few minutes before the close. The trend was down for the entire session.

This was a mixed day: the hi and lo were higher by the small margins of 39 and 12 points, but the close was off by 82.  The span was 245.

All the indexes had roughly similar contours: they started positive, and on the way down coiled around neutral before landing in the red.  The NASDAQ lost the least, and the Russell 2000 lost the most.  The NASDAQ and SP500 also had mixed days, while the the Russell had an outside day.

The DJI, SP500 and NASDAQ are still positive for the week, since yesterday's gains were larger than today's losses.  But the Russell is off 10 points.  And all are below their peaks from earlier in the month or year.  The best anyone can say about any of the indexes is that they are moving sideways.  

% changes -

DJI30 -0.24%

 SP500 -0.21%

NASDAQ -0.03%

Russell -0.97%

DJI Closings -

5/24/19 - 25586

5/22/20 - 24465

4/23/21 - 34043

5/24/21 - 34312

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1229/2059 = 0.60

A/D Vol = 0.44

New Hi/Lo = 192/26 = 7.38

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,323.05 +10.59 (+0.03%)

The index opened at 34336, up 24 points, and quickly jumped up to 34410, up 97.  It then fell, landing at 34271, off 41, at 10:00.  By 11:00 it was back up near the 34410, and then moved mostly sideways until 1:00, when it fell again.  It landed at 34290 at 3:00 and moved mostly sideways, staying below 34325 into the marginally positive close. 

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 102 points and the low higher by 5.  The span was a surprisingly narrow 138 points – about 40% of yesterday's 347.  The SP500 had a roughly similar contour, and an inside day, but didn't slip as much in the afternoon.  The NASDAQ rose in the morning and ran mostly flat in the afternoon.  It also had an inside day, with the hi lower by a single point.  Russell kept rising all day, gaining almost 2%. It was a clearly up day, but by only a couple of points at both ends. The big gain happened because yesterday's close was near the bottom of the day's range, while today's close was near the top.

All of the indexes have been moving sideways for the last several weeks (DJI and SP500) or months (NASDAQ and Russell.)  I'm going to guess that these moves are counter-current in a bull market that has not yet completely spent itself.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.03%

SP500 +0.19%

NASDAQ +0.59%

Russell +1.97%

DJI Closings -

5/24/19 - 25586

5/26/20 - 24995

4/26/21 - 33985

5/26/21 - 34323

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2257/1082 = 2.09

A/D Vol = 3.64

New Hi/Lo = 154/24 = 6.42

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,464.64   +141.59 (+0.41%)

The index opened at 34432, up 109 points.  Ten minutes later, it was at 34609, up 286.  From there it slid down 34400 at 11:30.  It then ran mostly sideways until 3:30.  In the last several minutes it rose to 34500, then at the very end  fell about 35 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 199 and 118 points, respectively.  The span was a modest 229 points.  The SP500 and Russell were also clearly up today. The NASDAQ had higher hi and lo, but the close was marginally down.  They all are well within the ranges established over the last several weeks or months.  Each had its own contour over the course of the session.

The week has been positive so far, with very little drama.  

% changes -

DJI30 +0.41%

SP500 +0.12%

NASDAQ -0.01%

Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -

5/26/19 - 25126

5/27/20 - 25548

4/27/21 - 33985

5/27/21 - 34465

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2104/1207 = 1.74

A/D Vol = 1.95

New Hi/Lo = 230/25 = 9.20

Friday, May 28, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   ---   34,529.45   +64.81 (+0.19%)

The index opened at 34559, up 94 points and immediately shot up to 34631, up 166.  After a retreat back to 34520 at 10:30, it rose again to 34610 at 12:30.  It then stayed above 34555 until the last few minutes, when it dropped into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 22 and 131 points, respectively, and the index in the green the entire session.  But the closing gain, only 9 points above the lo, is so minimal, the yellow arrow is warranted. The span was an extraordinarily narrow 111 points.

The SP500 and NASDAQ also had clearly up days, by small margins.  Aside from the slides at the end, these three indexes were basically flat after their early morning gains.  The Russell 2000 had a higher hi and lo as it coiled around its neutral line, but wound up slightly negative for the day. 

This was a positive week for all the indexes, though with no new highs. These were the weekly percentage gains.

DJI30 +0.94%

SP500 +1.16%

NASDAQ +2.06%

Russell 2000 +2.42%

With the Memorial Day Holiday on Monday, today was the last trading session of this flatish month.  Monthly changes were as follows.

DJI30 +1.93%

SP500 +0.55%

NASDAQ -1.53%

Russell 2000 +0.11%

Today's Stats:

% changes -

DJI30 +0.41%

SP500 +0.12%

NASDAQ -0.01%

Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -

5/24/19 - 25586

5/26/20 - 24995

4/26/21 - 33985

5/26/21 - 34323

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1958/1344 = 1.48

A/D Vol = 0.98

New Hi/Lo = 225/17 = 13.24

Taking Stock - Week of May 17, 2021

Monday, May 17, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close --- 34327.79 -54.34 (-0.16)

The Index opened at 34384, off 7 points, then increased by 9 before falling to 34236, off 146 before 10:00. At 10:30 it was down to 34277, off 205. There was a series of rapid oscillations between that level and 24270 until 12:30, when the index popped above that range, hitting 24305. It then dropped back to 34220 after 1:30. From there, it climbed to 34250 after 3:00, Then slid 22 points into the close.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 70 points and the lo higher by 126. The span was 207 points, less than half of the ten day average of 429. The SP500 and NASDAQ had similar contours and also wound up slightly negative. They both also had inside days. The Russell 2000 moved mostly upward in the afternoon and finished slightly positive, avoiding an inside day by 2 ½ points at the close.

This was basically a ho-hum day, all around. Fed remarks will be released on Wednesday, so traders might be in a holding pattern until then. Last Friday's dismal jobs report was shrugged off by the markets, with all the indexes making gains then. Those gains were mostly consolidated today. This bull is very old, and might be tired, but it's not dead yet.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.16%
SP500 -0.25%
NASDAQ -0.38%
Russell +0.11%

DJI Closings -
5/17/19 – 2576

5/1520 - 23685
4/16/21 - 34201
5/17/21 - 34328

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1751/1597 = 1.10
A/D Vol = 1.8.3
New Hi/Lo = 179/41 = 4.37

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,060.66   -267.13 (-0.78%)

The index opened at 34409, up less than 2 points, zig-zagged, then dropped to 34210, off 118 at 10:00.  It stayed between that level and 24290 until 2:30 when it dropped lower, hitting a lo of 34147, off 205 at 2:45.  It rose above 34210 again at 3:15, hitting 34262 at 3:40.  But from there it was a hard and dramatic 201 point fall into the close.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by only 25 points, and the low lower by 132 – the vast majority of the later happening in the last 15 minutes of the session.  The span was 365.  A change of about ¾ of a point in either direction is generally no big deal.  But all the indexes did the same thing at the same time in the closing moments.  The SP500 wound up in the middle of its support range.  The other indexes finished above theirs.  

For the NASDAQ, the lower border of a channel from the 3/23/20 lo through an intermediate lo has already intersected its support range.  So, unless it resumes climbing soon, the channel will be violated.  For the other indexes, the lower channel border will intersect the support range in the coming weeks.

This was another ho-hum day until the last few minutes.  Then it all went sour.  This is as exciting as seeing your closer blow the save in the bottom of the 9th.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.78%

SP500 -0.85%

NASDAQ -0.56%

Russell -0.73%

DJI Closings -

5/17/19 - 25764

5/18/20 - 24597

4/16/21 - 34201

5/18/21 - 34061

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1524/1795 = 0.85

A/D Vol = 0.55

New Hi/Lo = 228/24 = 9.50

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close ---   33896.04   164.62  (-0.48%)

The index opened at 33946, off 115 points, and immediately plunged to 33640, off 421.  At 10:40 it hit the lo of 33474, off 587.   It then turned and started climbing, reaching 33869 at 1:20, then turned again and fell back to 33630 at 3:00  Action after 1:00 was basically sideways in that range until the closing minutes as it was rising into the close.  From the 10:40 lo, the gain was substantial, with a 125 point bump in the closing moments.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by the stunning amounts of 463 and 570 points, respectively.  The lo hit the bottom of the support level, and the hi and finish were above that range.  

All the indexes climbed from deep mid-morning lows to finish with marginal losses.   The SP500 lo landed where the bottom of the support range from early April crosses the trend channel bottom from the 3/23/20 lo.  The hi and close were within its support range.  The NASDAQ's lo was right at the lower boundary of its trend channel, with the hi and close landing above it.  The Russell 2000 touched the top of its support range at the lo, then finished above it. 

The minutes of the April Fed meeting released at 2:00 today indicated that they might think about tightening at some uncertain future date, due to inflation.  This seems not to have influenced the markets in any obvious way.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.48%

SP500 -0.29%

NASDAQ -0.03%

Russell -0.78%

DJI Closings -

5/17/19 - 25764

5/19/20 - 24207

4/19/21 - 34078

5/19/21 - 33896

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1170/2137 = 0.55

A/D Vol = 0.29

New Hi/Lo = 50/33 = 1.52

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34084.15   +188.11 (+0.55%)

The Index opened at 339906, up 10 points, did a quick drop to 33872, off 24, then started climbing, reaching a hi of 34233 before noon.  It then turned and fell again, hitting 34030 after 12:30. From 1:00 until after 3:00 it stayed between 34100 and 34150.  It bounced to 34215 before sliding about 30 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 288 and 399 points, respectively. The span was 361.  The low was at the top of the support range. The other indexes rose further than the DJI. The SP500 and NASDAQ rose most of the day. On the SP500, the low was in the middle of its support range, and the hi and close were at the top of it.  The NASDAQ rose above its lower channel line.  The Russell 2000 snaked around its neutral line and finished strong to end positive. 

It's refreshing to have an up day after the last couple sessions. And there is some comfort in seeing the support levels maintained.  What we've seen in recent weeks might be counter-current to the ongoing bull market, at some lower level of trend.  But going forward it's important that the channels and support levels be maintained.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.55%

SP500 +1.06%

NASDAQ +1.77%

Russell +0.64%

DJI Closings -

5/20/19 - 25680

5/20/20 - 24576

4/20/21 - 33821

5/20/21 - 34084

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2210/1090 = 2.03

A/D Vol = 1.54

New Hi/Lo = 111/21 = 5.29

Friday, May 21, 2021

Green Arrow Up [a little]

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,207.84   +123.69 (+0.36%)

The Index opened at 34122, up 38 points, and the day's lo. Before 10:00 it reached the  hi of 34415, up 331.  It drifted down below 34300, up about 215, at 11:45, and reached a lo of 34150, up 66, before 1:00.  It rose to an intermediate hi of 34300 before 3:30, then slid over 90 points into the close.

This is a tepid gain, but a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 182 and 249 points, respectively.  The span was 294.  The net change for the week was 0.51%.  The mid-week was dramatic, but the end of the week was ho-hum.  All the indexes had roughly similar contours, at differing levels.  The Russell 2000 was also positive, but the NASDAQ was negative most of the day, and the SP500 slipped into the red at the close. The SP500 straddled the top of its support zone, and finished right on it.  The Russell 2000 spent the whole day above its support zone.  As did the NASDAQ, which is only about 400 points above its lower channel boundary from the 3/23/20 lo.

I saw an article last night that said yesterday's gains were mainly due to closing out options contracts prior to their expiration today.  I don't have the kind of insight it would take to critique that comment.  And don't know how that might have played out today.  I'm just sharing it for whatever it's worth.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.36%

 SP500 -0.08%

NASDAQ -0.48%

Russell +0.34%

DJI Closings -

5/21/19 - 25877

5/21/20 - 24474

4/21/21 - 34137

5/21/21 - 34208

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1960/1353 = 1.54

A/D Vol = 1.39

New Hi/Lo = 179/17 = 10.53

Taking Stock - Week of May 10, 2021

Monday, May 10, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways.

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,742.82 -34.94 (-0.10%)

The index opened at 34784, up 8 points. And immediately shot up to 34925. It then climbed more slowly reaching 35092, up 314, before noon. From there, the price slumped to 35000 at 2:15, then dropped to 34870, up only 92, in less than 10 minutes. It then went mostly sideways until 3:45 when it dropped 127 points into the close.

Only the late drop kept this from being a clearly up day. The hi and lo were up by 280 and 277 points, respectively. This strange session provided a new intra-day hi – the 4th such in a row - by 280 points. The SP500 touched green briefly mid-day, but finished off more than a percent. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were red all day, and both finished off more than 2.5%. Every index took a large drop at 2:15, though they were all heading lower anyway.

This is a terrible start to the week, especially coming off Friday's all time highs in the DJI and SP500 But both indexes are still well above their support levels. Meanwhile, the Russell has been in a up-trend since its 3/25 lo. Today's lo landed right on the channel bottom. Similarly, the NASDAQ has been in a up-trend defined by its 3/05 and 5/06 lows. Sadly, though, today's lo dropped below that channel boundary. It's too early to say if that channel is invalidated, or if the border needs to be adjusted. The next few days should clarify that point.

It surprised me to discover that each of the indexes is moving within [or close to] an up-slanting channel. Each index has a different starting date, and different behavior within its channel. I've included it on today's DJI chart to illustrate. So, despite today's dismal performances, the overall outlook is not bleak – yet. As long as the support levels and channels hold, we're doing OK.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.10%
SP500 1.04%
NASDAQ -2.55%
Russell -2.59%

DJI Closings -
5/10/19 – 25942.37
5/08/20 - 24331
4/09/21 - 33801
5/07/21 – 34743

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1104/2247 = 0.49
A/D Vol = 0.37
New Hi/Lo = 713/52 = 13.71

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of May 3, 2021

Monday, May 3, 2021

Green Arrow Up 

DJI30 Index at the close ---  34,113.23 +238.38 (+0.70%)

The Index opened at 33905, up 30, and immediately shot up to 34074, up 199. It continued up, reaching a hi of 34216 at 10:00. It stayed above 34130 until 3:48, and hit a new hi of 34221 at 11:45. In the last few minutes it slid 17 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 232, and 119 points, respectively. This action missed new all-time intra-day and closing highs by 36 and and 24 points respectively.

Every index followed a different path today, with the DJI leading the pack and only the NASDAQ finishing negative. The Russell stayed below last weeks local hi, and might still be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.70

SP500 +0.27
NASDAQ -0.48

Russell +0.45

DJI Closings -

5/03/19 - 26505
5/04/20 - 23750
4/01/21 - 33153
5/03/21 - 34113

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2311/1090 = 2.12
A/D Vol = 2.19
New Hi/Lo = 374/18 = 20.78

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 26, 2021

Monday, April 26, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,981.57   -61.92 (-0.18%)

The Index opened at 34044, up a fraction of a point, and quickly rose to 34149, up 105.  It then abruptly fell to 34090, the beginning of a jagged drop to 34000 after 1:30.  It ran slightly up to 34045 at 3:20, when it again fell abruptly to 33941, just over 100 points, at 3:30. It bounced up to 34115, then staggered into the close, for a 0.18% loss.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 9 points and the lo higher by 228 - the latter being a positive on a day that was mostly down hill.  The span was a modest 207 points. 

All the other indexes were up. The SP500 rose slightly in the morning, then chopped sideways the rest of the day.  On Friday it set a new intra-day hi at 4194.17, but missed a new closing hi by 5 points.  Today it reached a new intra-day hi by 0.02 points, and a new closing hi at 4187.62 by 2.15 points, 0.05%.  But, a hi is a hi, I guess.

The Russell 2000 rose until noon, then coasted sideways. It is 2.63% under its 3/15 all time closing hi, and might still be forming a head and shoulders pattern.

The NASDAQ rose until 3:30, then slid a bit into its close.  On 4/16 it came within 0.31% of a new closing high.  It faltered a bit last week, but did reach a new closing hi today by [wait for it] 0.31%!  Yippee.

The market was fragmented today, with each index following its own path.  Volumes were low across the board.  Make of it what you will.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.31% 

SP500 +0.18%   

NASDAQ  +0.87%    

Russell 2000 +1.15% 

 

DJI30 Closings -

04/26/19 - 26543

04/24/20 - 23775

03/26/21 - 33073

04/26/21 - 33982

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2074/1230 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 2.16

New Hi/Lo = 395/16 = 24.69

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Taking Stock - Weekend Update

I need to pay more attention to the SP500!

Some excerpts from Avi Gilbert's post at Seeking Alpha today follow.

As we came into this past week, I had our members of The Market Pinball Wizard well prepared for the whipsaw action we experienced this past week. This next quote was from my analysis posted to our members last weekend:

[A]s I warned earlier this week, as long as the market respects the 4200SPX resistance region, then I still expect some whipsaw potential. You see, my main count has us completing wave iii of 3, with wave iv of 3 yet to be seen. Therefore, there is still some up/down action I expect in the coming week...

And, boy has it been a week of whipsaw. But the main point is that none of this comes as a surprise to those aware of the trend, and where we reside within the trend. In fact, as we were topping out on Thursday in a smaller degree structure, it was clear we were about to see a pullback, as I outlined to our members. And, at that time, the announcement was made about the Biden proposed new taxes on investments.

I have been doing this for a very long time, and I am always amazed at how news fits into the cycle. When the market is set up for a move, and a news event hits the wires, it always looks like the news event caused the move. Yet, when the market is not set up for that type of move, and a news event hits the wires, the market will often simply "yawn" and continue along its path. We have all seen this happen many times, that is, if we are paying close attention.

------------------

So, when the news of Biden's proposed tax hikes hit the market and the market reacted to the downside, all I can say is that it fits our chart expectations rather nicely. And, if you think that the substance of that news is what truly mattered, then you have to ask yourself if the news was retracted the very next day as not only did we take back the drop seen on Thursday, but we ran to new all-time highs!? Or, did investors re-consider, and then realize that the tax hike is actually bullish for the market?

I continually warn readers of my articles that if you attempt to trade or invest based upon the news, you will often find yourself behind the curve. I wonder how many of you were terribly whipsawed this past week based upon the news.

So, I will make this easy for you this coming week. Our smaller degree support is in the 4160/70SPX region. As long as that holds on Monday, I am looking for the market to rally up towards the 4240/50SPX region before we see another pullback to set us up for the next major rally to 4300+. But, if we do not hold 4160 as support early in the week, then we will likely re-test the 4095-4120SPX region before we begin the next rally to 4300+.

In other words, 4095-4120SPX is the new upper support for the market, and our targets remain 4300+ as we move into the month of May. In fact, 4095 may become our new support floor for the rest of 2021 depending upon the action seen in the coming 3 weeks.

Taking Stock - Week of April 19, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   34,077.63   -123.04 (-0.36%)

The index opened at 34182, off 18 points, and quickly dropped to 34051, off 150.  It chopped down to the low of 33981, off 220, after 12:30.  The afternoon gain was also choppy, with a 63 point rise in the last half hour.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 74 and 78 points, respectively.

The span was 202 points.  This is tepid follow-up to Friday’s all time highs, and a poor start to the week - though by rather small margins.   

Hale Stewart reports — 

“All the indexes were off; this only issue was degree. Smaller caps took the brunt of the selling, but large caps also took a modest hit.  Two defensive sectors are at the top of the list*. At the bottom are communication services, tech, and consumer discretionary - three sectors that are key for the SPY and QQQ.”

* Real Estate [slightly positive] and Health Care [slightly negative] Performed best today.

It seems that the session’s extreme - either hi or low - often occurs near mid-day.  I have no idea what that means - if anything,  At this point, it’s just an observation.  Not much more to say today.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.36% 

SP500 -0.53%   

NASDAQ  -0.98%    

Russell 2000 -1.36% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/17/20 - 24242

03/19/21 - 32628

04/19/21 - 34078

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1099/2191 = 0.50

A/D Vol = 0.66

New Hi/Lo = 236/32 = 7.38

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 12, 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-    33,745.40   -55.20 (-0.16%)

The index opened at 33775, off 26 points.  After a brief rise to 33786, off 14, it fell, hitting 33691, off 110 after 11:00.  By noon it recovered to 33770.  After 12:45 it fell again, hitting the day’s lo of 33666, off 135, after 2:00.  It stayed under 33700 until 3:30, when it was sharply rising, reaching the hi of 33786, off 14, 8 minutes before the close.

This was an inside day: minus 25 points at the hi end and plus 139 at the lo.  The span was an extraordinarily narrow 121 points, the least since 83 points on 1/17/2020 - well before last year’s crash.  If there is a positive here, it is in the day’s lo moving higher, which justifies the yellow arrow.

Last Friday there were new intra-day and closing highs.  Today was pretty uneventful. All the indexes were down a bit, and except for the SP500 which briefly went slightly positive in the early afternoon, they were all in the red all day.  DJI volume has been on the light side all month, and NYSE volume has been about 70% of normal.

It looks as if the DJI and SP500 are in third waves up from the 3/23/20 bottom, at some level of trend.  If that is right, then consolidations and brief corrections can safely be ignored, and there is still a long way to go up.  If!  The problem is the weak volume.  This does not look bullish, so the signals are mixed.

I read an article recently that graphical showed that not only is the stock market disconnected from the underlying economy, it has NEVER been connected.  I’ve repeatedly said that the market is an aspect of human emotion, and the collective behaviors of investors and speculators are, at best, semi-rational.  This is why we see extreme over and under valuations, and the occasional violent jolt.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.16% 

SP500 -0.02%   

NASDAQ  -0.36%    

Russell 2000 -0.43% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/12/19 - 26412

04/09/20 - 23719

03/12/21 - 32779

04/12/21 - 33745

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1640/1644 = 1.00  <---  how rare is this?!?

A/D Vol = 0.81

New Hi/Lo = 305/17 = 17.94

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 5, 2021

Monday, April 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,527.19   +373.98 (+1.13%)

The Index opened at 33222, up 69 points, and quickly shot up to 33475, up 322.  It continued climbing, reaching the hi of 33618, up 465 after 12:30.  It slid back, but remained above 33515, until it briefly dipped under 33500 after 3:00, then had a choppy rise into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by the substantial margins of 451 and 237 points, respectively.  The span was 396.  This is a great start to the week, but the SP500 and NASDAQ had even more impressive gains, up by 1.44% and 1.67%

For now, animal spirits have captured the market in a big way.  The rotation into small caps and value might have reversed, as those segments were laggards today - though almost also sectors were up.

Volume was about normal for the DJI, but quite low for the SP500, NASDAQ and NYSE.  Russell volume number was not available.

I always talk about follow through, so we’ll have to see what tomorrow brings.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.13% 

SP500 +1.44%   

NASDAQ  +1.67%    

Russell 2000 +0.49% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/03/20 - 21053

03/01/21 - 31496

04/05/21 - 33527

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2095/1238 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 1.52

New Hi/Lo = 318/15 = 21.20

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of March 29, 2021

Monday, March 29, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,171.37   +98.49 (+0.30%)

The Index opened at 33088, up 15 points, and climbed to 33103, up 30 in the first few minutes.  After 10:00 it dropped, hitting 32905, the day’s lo, off 168 before 11:00.  At noon, it was back up to 33050, off 22.  After 1:00 it stayed between 31100 and 31180 until 3:30, when it moved up to the day’s hi of 33259.  From there it was an 88 point slide into the close.

I mis-spoke on Friday.  There was a new closing hi, then, by 57 points.  Today we got new intra-day and closing highs, by 31 and 98 points, respectively.  This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 160 and 224 points, respectively.  The span was 354 points.

All the indexes were down in the morning. The DJI moved into positive territory around midday and stayed positive.  The SP500 spent the afternoon snaking around neutral and slipped slightly under at the end. The NASDAQ could’t quite get above the null point and slumped in the afternoon   The Russell was dismal the entire session.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.30% 

SP500 -0.09%   

NASDAQ  -0.60%    

Russell 2000 -2.83% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/25919 - 25929

03/27/20 - 21637

02/26/21 - 30932

03/29/21 - 33171

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1092/2233 = 0.49

A/D Vol = 0.51

New Hi/Lo = 214/29 = 7.34

Tuesday, March 30, 2021