Taking Stock - Week of April 19, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   34,077.63   -123.04 (-0.36%)

The index opened at 34182, off 18 points, and quickly dropped to 34051, off 150.  It chopped down to the low of 33981, off 220, after 12:30.  The afternoon gain was also choppy, with a 63 point rise in the last half hour.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 74 and 78 points, respectively.

The span was 202 points.  This is tepid follow-up to Friday’s all time highs, and a poor start to the week - though by rather small margins.   

Hale Stewart reports — 

“All the indexes were off; this only issue was degree. Smaller caps took the brunt of the selling, but large caps also took a modest hit.  Two defensive sectors are at the top of the list*. At the bottom are communication services, tech, and consumer discretionary - three sectors that are key for the SPY and QQQ.”

* Real Estate [slightly positive] and Health Care [slightly negative] Performed best today.

It seems that the session’s extreme - either hi or low - often occurs near mid-day.  I have no idea what that means - if anything,  At this point, it’s just an observation.  Not much more to say today.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.36% 

SP500 -0.53%   

NASDAQ  -0.98%    

Russell 2000 -1.36% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/17/20 - 24242

03/19/21 - 32628

04/19/21 - 34078

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1099/2191 = 0.50

A/D Vol = 0.66

New Hi/Lo = 236/32 = 7.38

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   33,821.30   -256.33 (-0.75%)

The index opened at 34034, off 43 points, and immediately fell to 33951, off 127. It paused for a half hour, then fell again, reaching a lo of 33726, off 352 at 11:40. After a recovery to 33860 before 12:30, it fell again to a new lo of 33687, off 391, at 3:00.  From there, it was a 134 point rise into the close.



Following yesterday, this is another clearly down day with the hi and lo lower by 148 and 294 points, respectively.  This is the first time there have been 2 in a row since 3/03 and 3/04.  There were two previous such events this year, on 2/24 - 2/25, and 1/22 - 1/25.  Today’s spread was 347 points, the largest since 4/05 when the Index gained 374 points.

A loss of less than a percent is well within the span of normal trading. But following yesterday's 0.36% loss, and in the context of all the indexes dropping today, it looks ugly. The Russell took the worst beating, off almost 2%.  That is a really bad day.



It had been up, up and more up, for almost a month on the DJI express since the 3/25 intraday lo of 32071.  At last Friday’s close the Index was up 2129 points, or 6.64%  Nothing travels in a straight line, so the last couple of days might just be a much need pause.  But it sure doesn’t feel good.

FWIW, volumes are still lo.  On the DJI, it’s 89% of its yearly average and 92% of its 34 day average.  On the NYSE it’s 81% of it’s 34 day average.  NYSE internals are weaker than yesterday’s, which is also not a good sign.

Contra that though, Hale Stewart said this in today’s Seeking Article wrap up: “All the indexes have the same pattern: down in the morning, consolidation in the afternoon. The good news is that the selling is disciplined; after dropping, indexes move sideways. This is the same pattern as yesterday. . . .  Again, notice the discipline in the selling: a drop followed by consolidation. That's a good development.

As of now, the major indexes are only off a few percentage points from record highs. Frankly, a modest drop would be healthy. Let's see how the rest of the week shakes out.”

So there might be a bright spot in the clouds.  But keep your umbrella handy.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.75% 

SP500 -0.68%   

NASDAQ  -0.92%    

Russell 2000 -1.96% 

 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/17/20 - 23650

03/19/21 - 32628

04/20/21 - 33821

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  877/2440 = 0.36

A/D Vol = 0.32

New Hi/Lo = 177/44 = 4.02

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   34,137.31   +316.01 (+0.93%)

The Index opened at 33808, off 13 points, and quickly fell to 34043, off 48.  But that was a springboard launching the Index to 34040 just after 11:00. It dropped to 33960 over then next half hour, then turned up again, reaching 34065 by 2:00. It stayed between that value and 34090 until 3:30, when it jumped up to 34160, just 23 points above the close.



This gains back most of the last 2 day’s losses.  It’s a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 126 and 87 points, respectively, and a volume surge at the end - but the total volume was still low.  The span was 387.  Volume was also lo on the NYSE.

All the indexes had brief, shallow dips into the red early on, then moved up the rest of the day with rather similar contours.  So this a strong day across the board, with the volatile Russell 2000 posting the largest gain.  Largest gains were in micro-caps and smallest in large caps.  Small and mid caps had in between gains, in that order.

For sectors: materials, energy and financial led the way; staples and communication services lagged; and utilities lost ground.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.93% 

SP500 +0.93%   

NASDAQ  +1.19%    

Russell 2000 +2.35% 

 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/21/20 - 23019

03/19/21 - 32628

04/21/21 - 34137

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2613/712 = 3.67

A/D Vol = 6.90

New Hi/Lo = 228/41 = 5.56

Thursday, April 22, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,815.90   -321.41 (-0.94%)

The Index opened at 34110, off 27 points, and quickly dropped to 33990, off 147.  It reached a lo of 33955 at 10:00, then moved higher, reaching 34126, off 11 points, at 1:00.  It then abruptly fell 276 points to 33850 in about 20 minutes.  The other indexes also had sharp drops at that exact same time.  


After a short respite, the plunge continued, reaching 33717, off 420 at 2:00.  The Index struggled up near 33900 at 3:00, then slumped again and staggered into the close.

This reaction is attributed to a Bloomberg report that Biden will propose increasing the capital gains tax on wealthy individuals.  Since I’m not wealthy, I don’t care.  But it looks as if Mr. Market had a little melt down.  On a PROPOSAL that, if it comes to pass at all - which is not guaranteed, the president doesn’t make tax policy - will be some time in the uncertain future, not this afternoon. And why should this influence stock prices at all?  Individual taxes come after the fact, and should have no direct influence on stock prices.  This shows [again] how illogical the markets are.

This was an ugly clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower, but only by the small margins of 34 and 57 points respectively.  And the close is only 5 points under Tuesday’s.  This loss pretty much negates yesterday’s gain, the difference being that yesterday the close was near the top of the trading range, and today it was near the bottom. FWIW, today’s lo was 30 points above Tuesday’s. So far this week the index is trading in a range of 1.37% of its midpoint.

Volumes remained low on the Index and the NYSE, as they have been all month.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.94% 

SP500 -0.92%   

NASDAQ  -0.94%    

Russell 2000 -0.94% 

 

DJI30 Closings -

04/22/19 - 26511

04/22/20 - 23476

03/22/21 - 32731

04/22/21 - 33816

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1276/2004 = 0.64

A/D Vol = 0.60

New Hi/Lo = 247/14 = 17.64

Friday, April 23, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   34,043.49   +227.59 (+0.67%)

The Index opened at 33804, off 11 points, and quickly fell to a low of 33713, off 103.  It looks like this completes a wave down at some level of trend, since the Index then turned up, reaching 34020 by 11:00.  It stayed above 33975, and then went higher after 12:30, hitting 34075 before 1:00.  It then stayed above 34025 - but not by a lot. Shortly after 3:30 the Index reached 34158, up 342, but then slumped 115 points to close at 34043.

This is an outside day, with a higher hi and lower lo by the small margins of 31 and 4 points, respectively.  The span was 444 points, the largest since 601 on 3/25 when the Index gained 199 points.  For a moment there I though today’s gains might neutralize yesterday’s 321 point loss, but the late fade foreclosed that possibility.

This week’s closings formed a W by alternating losses and gains.  Coming off last Friday’s all time highs, for the week the index lost 0.46% at the close.  There were a lot of gyrations, but not much harm done.  It’s beyond my meager ability to read anything into the wave structure, but I’ll hazard a guess that the Index was/is in a counter-current wave that either ended at yesterday’s low or will continue into next week before he next wave up.

As I’ve mentioned previously, volumes this month are quite lo.  On the NYSE, today’s is only 73% of the 34 day average - and that average has been dropping along with the day numbers.  DJI volume was 94% of the 34 day average, and only 88% of the 1 year average.  This makes 3 solid weeks of lo volumes.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.67% 

SP500 +1.09%   

NASDAQ  +1.44%    

Russell 2000 +1.76% 

 

DJI30 Closings -

04/22/19 - 26511

04/22/20 - 23476

03/22/21 - 32731

04/22/21 - 33816

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1276/2004 = 0.64

A/D Vol = 0.60

New Hi/Lo = 247/14 = 17.64