Taking Stock - Week of May 17, 2021

Monday, May 17, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close --- 34327.79 -54.34 (-0.16)

The Index opened at 34384, off 7 points, then increased by 9 before falling to 34236, off 146 before 10:00. At 10:30 it was down to 34277, off 205. There was a series of rapid oscillations between that level and 24270 until 12:30, when the index popped above that range, hitting 24305. It then dropped back to 34220 after 1:30. From there, it climbed to 34250 after 3:00, Then slid 22 points into the close.

This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 70 points and the lo higher by 126. The span was 207 points, less than half of the ten day average of 429. The SP500 and NASDAQ had similar contours and also wound up slightly negative. They both also had inside days. The Russell 2000 moved mostly upward in the afternoon and finished slightly positive, avoiding an inside day by 2 ½ points at the close.

This was basically a ho-hum day, all around. Fed remarks will be released on Wednesday, so traders might be in a holding pattern until then. Last Friday's dismal jobs report was shrugged off by the markets, with all the indexes making gains then. Those gains were mostly consolidated today. This bull is very old, and might be tired, but it's not dead yet.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.16%
SP500 -0.25%
NASDAQ -0.38%
Russell +0.11%

DJI Closings -
5/17/19 – 2576

5/1520 - 23685
4/16/21 - 34201
5/17/21 - 34328

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1751/1597 = 1.10
A/D Vol = 1.8.3
New Hi/Lo = 179/41 = 4.37

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,060.66   -267.13 (-0.78%)

The index opened at 34409, up less than 2 points, zig-zagged, then dropped to 34210, off 118 at 10:00.  It stayed between that level and 24290 until 2:30 when it dropped lower, hitting a lo of 34147, off 205 at 2:45.  It rose above 34210 again at 3:15, hitting 34262 at 3:40.  But from there it was a hard and dramatic 201 point fall into the close.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by only 25 points, and the low lower by 132 – the vast majority of the later happening in the last 15 minutes of the session.  The span was 365.  A change of about ¾ of a point in either direction is generally no big deal.  But all the indexes did the same thing at the same time in the closing moments.  The SP500 wound up in the middle of its support range.  The other indexes finished above theirs.  

For the NASDAQ, the lower border of a channel from the 3/23/20 lo through an intermediate lo has already intersected its support range.  So, unless it resumes climbing soon, the channel will be violated.  For the other indexes, the lower channel border will intersect the support range in the coming weeks.

This was another ho-hum day until the last few minutes.  Then it all went sour.  This is as exciting as seeing your closer blow the save in the bottom of the 9th.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.78%

SP500 -0.85%

NASDAQ -0.56%

Russell -0.73%

DJI Closings -

5/17/19 - 25764

5/18/20 - 24597

4/16/21 - 34201

5/18/21 - 34061

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1524/1795 = 0.85

A/D Vol = 0.55

New Hi/Lo = 228/24 = 9.50

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close ---   33896.04   164.62  (-0.48%)

The index opened at 33946, off 115 points, and immediately plunged to 33640, off 421.  At 10:40 it hit the lo of 33474, off 587.   It then turned and started climbing, reaching 33869 at 1:20, then turned again and fell back to 33630 at 3:00  Action after 1:00 was basically sideways in that range until the closing minutes as it was rising into the close.  From the 10:40 lo, the gain was substantial, with a 125 point bump in the closing moments.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by the stunning amounts of 463 and 570 points, respectively.  The lo hit the bottom of the support level, and the hi and finish were above that range.  

All the indexes climbed from deep mid-morning lows to finish with marginal losses.   The SP500 lo landed where the bottom of the support range from early April crosses the trend channel bottom from the 3/23/20 lo.  The hi and close were within its support range.  The NASDAQ's lo was right at the lower boundary of its trend channel, with the hi and close landing above it.  The Russell 2000 touched the top of its support range at the lo, then finished above it. 

The minutes of the April Fed meeting released at 2:00 today indicated that they might think about tightening at some uncertain future date, due to inflation.  This seems not to have influenced the markets in any obvious way.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.48%

SP500 -0.29%

NASDAQ -0.03%

Russell -0.78%

DJI Closings -

5/17/19 - 25764

5/19/20 - 24207

4/19/21 - 34078

5/19/21 - 33896

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1170/2137 = 0.55

A/D Vol = 0.29

New Hi/Lo = 50/33 = 1.52

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34084.15   +188.11 (+0.55%)

The Index opened at 339906, up 10 points, did a quick drop to 33872, off 24, then started climbing, reaching a hi of 34233 before noon.  It then turned and fell again, hitting 34030 after 12:30. From 1:00 until after 3:00 it stayed between 34100 and 34150.  It bounced to 34215 before sliding about 30 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 288 and 399 points, respectively. The span was 361.  The low was at the top of the support range. The other indexes rose further than the DJI. The SP500 and NASDAQ rose most of the day. On the SP500, the low was in the middle of its support range, and the hi and close were at the top of it.  The NASDAQ rose above its lower channel line.  The Russell 2000 snaked around its neutral line and finished strong to end positive. 

It's refreshing to have an up day after the last couple sessions. And there is some comfort in seeing the support levels maintained.  What we've seen in recent weeks might be counter-current to the ongoing bull market, at some lower level of trend.  But going forward it's important that the channels and support levels be maintained.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.55%

SP500 +1.06%

NASDAQ +1.77%

Russell +0.64%

DJI Closings -

5/20/19 - 25680

5/20/20 - 24576

4/20/21 - 33821

5/20/21 - 34084

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2210/1090 = 2.03

A/D Vol = 1.54

New Hi/Lo = 111/21 = 5.29

Friday, May 21, 2021

Green Arrow Up [a little]

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,207.84   +123.69 (+0.36%)

The Index opened at 34122, up 38 points, and the day's lo. Before 10:00 it reached the  hi of 34415, up 331.  It drifted down below 34300, up about 215, at 11:45, and reached a lo of 34150, up 66, before 1:00.  It rose to an intermediate hi of 34300 before 3:30, then slid over 90 points into the close.

This is a tepid gain, but a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by 182 and 249 points, respectively.  The span was 294.  The net change for the week was 0.51%.  The mid-week was dramatic, but the end of the week was ho-hum.  All the indexes had roughly similar contours, at differing levels.  The Russell 2000 was also positive, but the NASDAQ was negative most of the day, and the SP500 slipped into the red at the close. The SP500 straddled the top of its support zone, and finished right on it.  The Russell 2000 spent the whole day above its support zone.  As did the NASDAQ, which is only about 400 points above its lower channel boundary from the 3/23/20 lo.

I saw an article last night that said yesterday's gains were mainly due to closing out options contracts prior to their expiration today.  I don't have the kind of insight it would take to critique that comment.  And don't know how that might have played out today.  I'm just sharing it for whatever it's worth.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.36%

 SP500 -0.08%

NASDAQ -0.48%

Russell +0.34%

DJI Closings -

5/21/19 - 25877

5/21/20 - 24474

4/21/21 - 34137

5/21/21 - 34208

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1960/1353 = 1.54

A/D Vol = 1.39

New Hi/Lo = 179/17 = 10.53