tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42901632557788937892024-03-16T05:19:07.068-04:00Retirement BluesThis should be the best time of life, but . . .
(instead, we are become <a href="http://bouphonia.blogspot.com/2009/02/electricity-plus-water.html">flaming squid huggers</a>)Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comBlogger1733125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-24953539468233862702024-01-07T15:01:00.000-05:002024-01-07T15:01:16.676-05:00NVIDIA Revisited<p> On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote <a href="https://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2023/08/some-thought-on-nvidia.html">a critical post about NVDA</a> - the stock, not the company. After that, the stock took a nose dive, falling 16.9% to 410.17 on 9/26/23. That would have been a good buying opportunity of you were an agile trader or had a strong stomach. After rising to 469 on 10/12/23, it fell to a new lo at 405 on 10/27/23. But it bounced quickly, reaching a marginal new high at 496.56 on 11/14/23. In the 2 months since, it's wobbled a bit, going nowhere, to close at 490.97 on 1/05/24. Actually, the stock has been in the doldrums for 4 1/2 months, and pays no dividend. See Graph 1. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheMZYLaDJ4kcHZK5XzCU-00RW3kE3tRH8A1Tpo9hbRHpVq0komAvRi70rwpRcjSHdeUx8mRI-xOviGqeMbsAZXl3xrTeQkOADS08SLYQQlNho72GoepQydvRJMXLiCGMqD_Tn0Xd3BMuIXd6NyU-C_1x7niAe1F76YP5lTbo4MoS7DfAFyCu7VNkLcyz7I/s1598/NVDA%201-05-24.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1598" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheMZYLaDJ4kcHZK5XzCU-00RW3kE3tRH8A1Tpo9hbRHpVq0komAvRi70rwpRcjSHdeUx8mRI-xOviGqeMbsAZXl3xrTeQkOADS08SLYQQlNho72GoepQydvRJMXLiCGMqD_Tn0Xd3BMuIXd6NyU-C_1x7niAe1F76YP5lTbo4MoS7DfAFyCu7VNkLcyz7I/w400-h224/NVDA%201-05-24.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graph 1</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>Per <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA?p=NVDA&.tsrc=fin-srch">Yahoo finance</a>, the current P/E is a wildly unsustainable 64.94. But never underestimate the irrationality of the market.<br /><p>Over a 24 month span the stock is up 80%, while the NASDAQ is off almost 3%. This, I believe emphasizes the unsustainability of the stock price. See graph 2.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF1EQaLkrWiszFSzDO0cxD62uBb16-wYJ-q2F0nyumC5n_4vPfoddUP1oqrjZ8uC47fnd4FGFO3hSkh_6_7KYZWmjVXF-pQLJ-zV1hqtc93VO2nHOEWzLQF3zraGRKDXS7ZIQh62kkNnJD4mU7m9CIL_RsY6VCvIpJ6C83QSJXrdPhkzRfvdFVZi2Dt67m/s2352/Screenshot%202024-01-06%20at%2012.53.38%E2%80%AFPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1074" data-original-width="2352" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF1EQaLkrWiszFSzDO0cxD62uBb16-wYJ-q2F0nyumC5n_4vPfoddUP1oqrjZ8uC47fnd4FGFO3hSkh_6_7KYZWmjVXF-pQLJ-zV1hqtc93VO2nHOEWzLQF3zraGRKDXS7ZIQh62kkNnJD4mU7m9CIL_RsY6VCvIpJ6C83QSJXrdPhkzRfvdFVZi2Dt67m/s320/Screenshot%202024-01-06%20at%2012.53.38%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graph 2 - source: Yahoo Finance</span></b></div><p></p><p>The difficulty in this kind of a situation is that the stock might have peaked, or it might just be building a base <b><u><a href="https://draft.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/4290163255778893789/2495353946823386270">for a new advance.</a></u></b> If I owned this stock [I do not] I wouldn't be in a big hurry to sell it all, but I would be watching carefully for the signs of a likely, possibly even inevitable, collapse. It's happened before - in 2022 it dropped 66%. Since August of 2023 it's been distressingly volatile, while not advancing. So I might consider selling some to lock in a hefty profit. But if the 5 day EMA drops below 162, and keeps heading down, I'd dump it. See Graph 3.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE_5hWyXUZ7ozgdv-u-jVqRzX8A5xcd_4GEB2Pz6EdScsDgURuXc_-uXCvpCiudSBFdjtKmb3bUPMKnbmyIClBFuEJ65MD4AdUE6Z-7YK0afLJxaaUMuNsiXLx4H3YxGnA0RH7Rycr2xWKWCn3uku6HxyURfkma92ogGWsvMCWC-1yVCwtDqEGktgMIJOj/s1628/Screenshot%202024-01-07%20at%202.49.30%E2%80%AFPM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1628" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE_5hWyXUZ7ozgdv-u-jVqRzX8A5xcd_4GEB2Pz6EdScsDgURuXc_-uXCvpCiudSBFdjtKmb3bUPMKnbmyIClBFuEJ65MD4AdUE6Z-7YK0afLJxaaUMuNsiXLx4H3YxGnA0RH7Rycr2xWKWCn3uku6HxyURfkma92ogGWsvMCWC-1yVCwtDqEGktgMIJOj/w400-h220/Screenshot%202024-01-07%20at%202.49.30%E2%80%AFPM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graph 3</span></b></div><p></p><p>Disclaimer - I am not a financial or investment advisor. I do these mental speculations for my own amusement and edification. Make your own decisions and chose wisely. Which is pretty damned difficult.</p><p>Note: Graphs 1 and 3 are from my files.</p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-58747075490515983792023-10-19T16:26:00.002-04:002023-10-19T16:26:31.348-04:00Test Post<p> </p>
<iframe width="420" height="236" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/moSFlvxnbgk?si=MYJsXJRubI913h_B" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-52217044428679973712023-08-26T08:38:00.005-04:002023-11-03T14:52:54.187-04:00Some Thought on Nvidia<p> This week, NVDA wildly exceeded revenue guidance, posting <b><u><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/m/37d23a29-1701-3418-8c1d-c5a1bfa17690/why-nvidia-stock-hit-new.html">$13.5 Billion</a></u></b> vs the expected $11 Billion, an increase of 101% over the same quarter last year. Impressive - no?</p><p>On Thursday, the stock hit a new intraday hi of 502.66 just after the opening, but then fell the rest of the day, losing 31 points and closing at 471.63, a fraction above the day's lo. [Graph 1, From Yahoo Finance.]</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyCP7Ual6xCSJWZgsBGcGxvlA91yUsP4DE3DMu8pHDLHFERP-7GYW5UxnlCq0mF4ggoMv9Ftc1OAijrbkzqSFpnDz3cS58J5t364GphFtcz1eqLK3Y6abcoWlRdMNBgbnYHFUew3wbWkfkeZPxNmxeoaeiEgJPjv-gxMMH_7Gz0wqv7rcmP5FNnR4n8vuo/s2412/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%206.40.16%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="928" data-original-width="2412" height="155" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyCP7Ual6xCSJWZgsBGcGxvlA91yUsP4DE3DMu8pHDLHFERP-7GYW5UxnlCq0mF4ggoMv9Ftc1OAijrbkzqSFpnDz3cS58J5t364GphFtcz1eqLK3Y6abcoWlRdMNBgbnYHFUew3wbWkfkeZPxNmxeoaeiEgJPjv-gxMMH_7Gz0wqv7rcmP5FNnR4n8vuo/w400-h155/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%206.40.16%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graph 1 NVDA 8/23 to 8/25</span></b></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></div><p>The most recent new closing high was 474.94 on 7/18, more than a month ago. </p><p>Here's a hard and unpleasant fact: even with this earnings blow out, the P/E ratio is 110.89. Will you scoff at me if I suggest that this is not sustainable? And the lack of a new closing high after this earnings report is not a good sign. Further, Friday's close was off 11.45 points, or 2.43%. I wonder - at this level, are there many buyers left?</p><p>Let's take a look from a longer view. Graph 2 shows daily closings from the middle of last year, along with trend lines and exponential moving averages. [Data source - Yahoo Finance]</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5HOct3zil3waCaLiW4INsGRMluvZBMqXAZMw4knsr4DniJftcmlTkTk4Vni5SAtVdotQib0NptdbN37rXfXMaD2dOonq1XgqRkeh78R0ILeDXHXr1Ab7t3OUB8J1ZKQceodenpnPGUkjRltBO_XzdF3nG81ElX3mRr3CxMKe80tt6kJ65yvOEd31zIQCW/s1612/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%209.47.06%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1612" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5HOct3zil3waCaLiW4INsGRMluvZBMqXAZMw4knsr4DniJftcmlTkTk4Vni5SAtVdotQib0NptdbN37rXfXMaD2dOonq1XgqRkeh78R0ILeDXHXr1Ab7t3OUB8J1ZKQceodenpnPGUkjRltBO_XzdF3nG81ElX3mRr3CxMKe80tt6kJ65yvOEd31zIQCW/w400-h221/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%209.47.06%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graph 2 NVDA Closings from mid 2022.</span></b></div><p>Like just about everything else, NVDA dropped dramatically through the first 9 months of 2022. From the hi of 336.71 on 11/29/21 it slumped to a low of 112.27 on 10/14/22, a staggering loss of 66.36%. Then, at the end of the year, there was a higher lo, suggesting that the drop might be complete. This became an even stronger suggestion when the price crossed over the descending trend line [in violet] a few weeks later. From there it was up, up and away until the recent all time highs.</p><p> On 5/24/23 the stock rose 24.4% in a single day, and kept climbing for almost 2 more months. This leap carried the price far above the green up-slanting trend line, and this is what irrational exuberance looks like.</p><p>Graph 3 is a look at exponential moving averages of daily closings, from 5 day to 233 day periods.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG6okLUJmGQrQwwwonitE8BekpLbUYwUoq3SUOXdYJzmgSeaSG8igSFRJvAMLFfrWB3FxGhKnW8EXVwYjkelS8obablROiAtvtCTiw0etFmoeFdiYDVOTHuSnWn4Td66yfGuq0wbJcgy_4wHkdEaXtKa5IFYL8rHmzHG_X2RxV09sd5n5SevCOxgM51rHE/s1616/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%2010.30.05%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="876" data-original-width="1616" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG6okLUJmGQrQwwwonitE8BekpLbUYwUoq3SUOXdYJzmgSeaSG8igSFRJvAMLFfrWB3FxGhKnW8EXVwYjkelS8obablROiAtvtCTiw0etFmoeFdiYDVOTHuSnWn4Td66yfGuq0wbJcgy_4wHkdEaXtKa5IFYL8rHmzHG_X2RxV09sd5n5SevCOxgM51rHE/w400-h216/Screenshot%202023-08-25%20at%2010.30.05%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><b>Graph 3 Exponential Moving Averages </b></div><p>The thin blue line is the 5 day EMA. It is more volatile and quicker moving than the longer EMAs. After its low of 116.83 on 10/14/22 the next intermediate low was 145.29 on 1/04/23. This also suggests that the bottom was in. This was confirmed by the cluster of long EMA lines in Early February. From Feb 1 to 21 the stock bounced around in the 210 to 220 range while all the EMA's continued rising. </p><p>All the long EMAs [55 to 233 day] continued rising right through 8/25/23, but the shorter ones have faltered. The 5 EMA line hit 462.9 on 7/19 then topped at 463 on 8/01, indicated on Graph 3 with the red horizontal line. It got close again on 8/24 and 8/25, but stalled under 462. </p><p>This looks to me like topping action. If 463 turns out to be a hard resistance line, then NVDA is going to falter. Right now it's hovering in tulip bulb territory, and a crash could be brutal.</p><p>If the P/E were to revert to a much more reasonable level of 30, for instance, the price would have to drop to about 125, for a loss of 73 percent from the 8/25 close of 460.18.</p><p>For comparison, Alphabet [GOOG] has a P/E of 27.57; Apple [APPL] is at 29.92; and Microsoft [MSFT] is at 32.46.</p><p>There's a lot of "if" here, and I don't have a crystal ball. The recent stall might be a pause to consolidate before the stock price doubles again. The market can stay irrational longer than most of us can stay solvent. NVDA ia a great company; but at these prices, I don't think it's a great stock. </p><p>EDIT</p><p>Here is an interesting insight, for what its worth.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCUmfQSM-SPk1I2wPYFRro933QD2fv7lSdWjXN1UAhnVDLQv8qSE56ht8A2svHBPOjNj9z9nxTukKmNpTHJW0FNiDJkgCgxkspOlNwgLUaGf7E80XuNhiHIo0MuKZMwi0dnI7upbXg5PbtivdV8xT7c_fjrAdKIt8sd2PACrYYAKKFjCy6QHzPIvrzcqm0/s1402/Screenshot%202023-08-26%20at%203.34.22%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1194" data-original-width="1402" height="341" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCUmfQSM-SPk1I2wPYFRro933QD2fv7lSdWjXN1UAhnVDLQv8qSE56ht8A2svHBPOjNj9z9nxTukKmNpTHJW0FNiDJkgCgxkspOlNwgLUaGf7E80XuNhiHIo0MuKZMwi0dnI7upbXg5PbtivdV8xT7c_fjrAdKIt8sd2PACrYYAKKFjCy6QHzPIvrzcqm0/w400-h341/Screenshot%202023-08-26%20at%203.34.22%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p>Source:</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/1695109989663219925">https://twitter.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/1695109989663219925</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-9429634278834636072022-09-19T16:51:00.000-04:002022-09-19T16:51:00.227-04:00Taking Stock - Sept 20, 2022<div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">The Indexes stayed close to the neutral point for most of the day, then turned up before 3:00. The SP 500 finished at 3899.99,, less than a point below the late day hi, for a gain of 26.66 [0.69%.]</div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">This week the Fed will have a two day meeting to set policy. Another rate increase of 0.75% or more is expected. This is not surprising, since, as I pointed out on Sept 1, the Fed is far behind the market-set 3 month T-Bill rate. [Link below]</div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="-1"></a></span>There is no surprise here, so It could be that the anticipated increase is already baked into the market's reaction - if that even matters.</div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">Meanwhile, the Index is hovering near the last reasonable retracement level from the 8/16 hi, coincidentally located in the midst of a broad support/resistance range between 3700 and 3900. </div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;">For what it's worth, the day's hi and lo were both marginally above those of Friday's session. You find whatever positives you can.</div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzCEgGxnHQTAEbVWs5z5ZKAI_2VPr0fE_46MC_DTYow7MzcmZaBOqknq4VtHu3szhneikHi0Y9m9a793fD8EbFZyIV6f4bkytnG_hkTLu4PfgGwLt2e9NiF_9shK9XwIZ3eNjZeZOdcqUJfrfEoSuTQBZa7wQyxDkncycvQznxwY72uap5QMoWBETp4g/s1608/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-19%20at%204.26.42%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1608" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzCEgGxnHQTAEbVWs5z5ZKAI_2VPr0fE_46MC_DTYow7MzcmZaBOqknq4VtHu3szhneikHi0Y9m9a793fD8EbFZyIV6f4bkytnG_hkTLu4PfgGwLt2e9NiF_9shK9XwIZ3eNjZeZOdcqUJfrfEoSuTQBZa7wQyxDkncycvQznxwY72uap5QMoWBETp4g/w400-h216/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-19%20at%204.26.42%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div dir="auto" style="font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2022/09/fed-schmed.html">LINK</a></div></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-4091443272700676602022-09-17T14:16:00.004-04:002022-09-17T14:19:41.932-04:00Taking Stock<p>After 4 up days ending in a gain of 5.15%, I was not surprised to see a pull back in the SP500 on Tuesday. But I was astounded by the magnitude, and then the follow-through. At Friday's lo, 3837.08, the index was almost 14 points [0.36%] under 3850.76.</p><p>This is the .786 retracement level from the 8/16 hi, the last reasonable level to support the current increasingly wobbly bull case. It's also in the midst of a support/resistence range between 3700 and 3900, dating back to June.</p><p>The only slightly bright glimmer I can find is that after hitting the day's lo shortly after noon, the Index rose 36.25 points [0.94%] into the close at 3873.33. Most of this rise happened after 2:30 p.m.</p><p>If the index continues falling next week, then the 6/17 lo is at risk. Then, if that is breached, The Index could reach as lo as 3200.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvGJrtpAVp89Gtm5Tgdaop5yyH4hrI4xj4sSv51iN0InCgR80f-FSJQu5VBg1gXUlUO_N8_XcR5cdnt0s23m9FNSc6WZmdPvswfUrIVDxx4jqgTNtsVvkn6fig24dWKFdklcl615QF_ObEi3jSxnAW9xphbQB_rfJp67FMrfhLu4N61_K_bIYdNXFIrg/s1618/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-16%20at%205.19.07%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1618" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvGJrtpAVp89Gtm5Tgdaop5yyH4hrI4xj4sSv51iN0InCgR80f-FSJQu5VBg1gXUlUO_N8_XcR5cdnt0s23m9FNSc6WZmdPvswfUrIVDxx4jqgTNtsVvkn6fig24dWKFdklcl615QF_ObEi3jSxnAW9xphbQB_rfJp67FMrfhLu4N61_K_bIYdNXFIrg/w400-h224/Screen%20Shot%202022-09-16%20at%205.19.07%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-40982119318955017772022-09-01T13:05:00.006-04:002022-09-17T22:44:25.791-04:00Fed, Schmed<p><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">It seems the Fed likes to keep the Federal Funds rate slightly above the 3 month T-Bill rate. </span></p><p><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">But the FFR almost always follows the T-Bill rate, and almost never leads. </span></p><p><span face="system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ".SFNSText-Regular", sans-serif" style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">R</span><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">ight now it is lagging, and that might be why pundits are expecting another .75% increase in September.</span></p><p><br /></p>
<iframe allowtransparency="true" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no" src="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=ThNu&width=420&height=236" style="height: 525px; overflow: hidden; width: 420px;"></iframe>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-18488424402745074962022-08-24T13:52:00.007-04:002022-08-26T18:22:57.027-04:00Taking Stock - Tuesday, August 23, 2022 [with updates]<div class="m8h3af8h l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Let's assume that the 6/16 lo in the SP500 index at 3636.87 was the end of a corrective wave from the 1/03 all time high, and that the action since is the beginning of the next impulse wave up to new higher highs.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">To confirm this notion will requite identifying a five wave form up from the 6/16 lo. If so, then wave 1 up was a gain of 308.99 points to a local hi at 3945.86 on 6/28. Wave 2 down followed the typical 3 sub-wave down-up-down pattern to a local lo at 3790.38 on <a style="color: #385898; cursor: pointer;" tabindex="-1"></a>7/14, a retracement of 50.8%.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Then, wave three up terminated at the local hi at 4325.28 on 8/16, and the index is now in wave 4 down.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Retracements are frequently at or near 38.2; 50, or 61.8% of the previous move. The resulting values would be 4120.95; 4057.83; and 3994.71, respectively - indicated with red lines on the chart..</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Today's session was almost flat, and the lo at 4129.86 is within 9 points of the 38.2% retracement level. </span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the way up in wave 3, the index stalled in a range near 4178 [heavy blue line] a resistance level extending back to March, 2021, when the index was on its way up to the all time hi. Coincidentally, the 144 day exponential moving average [dark purple curve on the graph] is moving through that same range and can contribute to either resistance or support.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the graph, daily highs are connected with a thin green line, lows in red, and closings in blue. The highs and lows are used In this analysis.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; white-space: pre-wrap; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There are three possibilities at this point. </span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">1 - The index is close to completing wave 4 down, and will soon move into wave 5 up, extending beyond the wave 3 hi at 4325.28.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">2 - There will be a deeper retracement, probably to another of the typical levels, followed by wave 5 up.</span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="font-family: georgia;">3 - This entire analysis is wrong, and the index will continue to fall below 3636 to new lows.</span></div></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">I think 3 is the least likely, but the picture should clarify over the next several days.</span></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div dir="auto"><div class="separator" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); clear: both; color: #050505; font-size: 15px; text-align: center; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm0REL_y7Z3QvrmHKNH7Gh-miMkGcxCjkPg7PjckSXKRberFR2a2uKtC7Z4NSeZThUUGGNaFiyyRWPig0TrJ9HwbfyXoolQrTGz08T_zZp8BHeR2WfYN0N6Ryu1jxgKtk0FkVK63aBQABjkCIuk2VrvU4CBtRqA-Yop5MOGgJ15YDiWfK5CNDe6zJpAg/s1638/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-23%20at%205.10.26%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1638" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjm0REL_y7Z3QvrmHKNH7Gh-miMkGcxCjkPg7PjckSXKRberFR2a2uKtC7Z4NSeZThUUGGNaFiyyRWPig0TrJ9HwbfyXoolQrTGz08T_zZp8BHeR2WfYN0N6Ryu1jxgKtk0FkVK63aBQABjkCIuk2VrvU4CBtRqA-Yop5MOGgJ15YDiWfK5CNDe6zJpAg/w400-h219/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-23%20at%205.10.26%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b><u><span style="color: #a64d79;">Update - Thursday 8/25</span></u></b></div><div dir="auto" style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></div><div dir="auto"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Yesterday's SP500 lo at 4119.97 is within a single point of the .382 retracement level at 4120.85 that I mentioned on Tuesday.</span></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
This might just be a coincidence. But if the index climbs from there to close above the 8/16 hi at 4325.28, that will increase confidence that wave 4 is complete, and that wave 5 will continue up to at least 4430 [heavy green line on the chart] and possibly as high as 4650, before the next corrective wave.</span></span></div><div dir="auto"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
Today, it finished at 4200.54, Marginally above the blue line at 4176 - a support/resistance level dating back to April, '21. If it falls back down again, wave 4 is probably still unfolding.</span></span></div><span style="caret-color: rgb(5, 5, 5); color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvhFSh0xbeq5Z-4seP6XwMDiySNvYE4ch-wsKLpSeyuaq1tXeBdv5Pa4myJ11Th980n-lJAYXavTlM2OCVeWc_qRfn0KzXjGiJaP-qCP6wUu1OzSEVCasCX1oXfcCH4_VBphY8gZSylqrX7melzXjguL4yhGaDpA0GcVlyTWWAuIoa-eTc90pgB5jf8g/s1614/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-25%20at%208.19.08%20PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="876" data-original-width="1614" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvhFSh0xbeq5Z-4seP6XwMDiySNvYE4ch-wsKLpSeyuaq1tXeBdv5Pa4myJ11Th980n-lJAYXavTlM2OCVeWc_qRfn0KzXjGiJaP-qCP6wUu1OzSEVCasCX1oXfcCH4_VBphY8gZSylqrX7melzXjguL4yhGaDpA0GcVlyTWWAuIoa-eTc90pgB5jf8g/w400-h219/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-25%20at%208.19.08%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><b><u><span style="color: #a64d79;">Update Friday 8/26</span></u></b></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The market took a hard turn to the downside today. I mentioned this possibility yesterday, but did not expect it, and certainly not at this magnitude. The SP500 did a brief zig-zag in the first half hour, dropped in the next half hour, then slid the rest of the day to finish at the lo.</div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">The lo, 4057.66, is within 34 points of the 50% retracement level at 4023.52. The chart shows all of wave 3 and the unfolding wave 4</div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">Yesterday, the index peeked above the support/resistance level at 4178, but it could not hold. This resistance is proving to be more formidable than I thought.</div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">This could still be corrective wave 4, and that will remains my opinion until proven otherwise. A drop under the 7/17 lo will make this position hard to justify, and a further drop below the 6/16 lo at 3636.87 will negate it completely.</div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;">We'll see how it plays out over the next several days.</div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7AJ90-gUVOPabqSzH-DmcpeVrXaH4XDjudbNEh9wOhLm5qdg7Zq4AYpJt__yUBg9II3xwKLTI_5V_qimrxdFcglWj2477QceOjqjjO0jnUjNOCV4AAAroszucjEmwufD-ZTv2JBD8X8nXp7o09YliveE_Av7rrwPfeIWmeH5zyQW9bj7dYBAfQ47hBw/s1628/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-26%20at%206.15.23%20PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1628" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7AJ90-gUVOPabqSzH-DmcpeVrXaH4XDjudbNEh9wOhLm5qdg7Zq4AYpJt__yUBg9II3xwKLTI_5V_qimrxdFcglWj2477QceOjqjjO0jnUjNOCV4AAAroszucjEmwufD-ZTv2JBD8X8nXp7o09YliveE_Av7rrwPfeIWmeH5zyQW9bj7dYBAfQ47hBw/w400-h221/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-26%20at%206.15.23%20PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div><div class="l7ghb35v kjdc1dyq kmwttqpk gh25dzvf jikcssrz n3t5jt4f" style="margin: 0.5em 0px 0px; word-wrap: break-word;"><br /></div></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-50415977345832361092022-01-11T16:30:00.004-05:002022-01-17T15:24:57.854-05:00Taking Stock - week of January 10, 2022<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, January 10, 2022</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,670.29 -6.74 (-0.14%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- 36,068.87 <b><span style="color: red;">-162.79 (-0.45%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">14,942.83 +6.93 (+0.05%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 2,171.15 -8.66 (-0.40%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 started negative, took a deep dive to 4582, the lo, off 95, before 11:00; and, coincidentally, 95 points below the critical support level. But it recovered the rest of the day, and finished with only a small loss. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI opened at 36175, the hi, off 56 points. It dropped to 35640, the lo, off a stunning 592 points before 11:00. From there it also recovered, finishing with a moderate loss. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">An encouraging point is that both of these indexes finished on up-ticks and volume surges.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened at 14752, off 184 points, and dropped to 14530, its lo, before 11:00. It rose the rest of the day to finish at its high for a minuscule gain.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell opened flat at the day's hi, and dropped near 2133, the lo, before 11:00. After a slight rise it fell again, hitting the lo, off 45 points, before 1:00. From there it rose into the close, finishing with a moderate loss.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">All the indexes followed similar paths with deep declines in the morning and strong recoveries later in the day, mostly for losses. If the upward momentum can continue tomorrow, this could be the end of the decline. But that is no sure thing, so we'll have to wait and see.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiy9jeynmBq0RQRnvRfDqzw9kD-PftzEjHe3DkveLxZtABtXIgv2dz04vkWtaT6XuphEnsWf1A6T5X9rcjfdwEy7zP2NQXZogpAWHayem-G6j1i_9aAfQihnRdvc8repNfbeC9MGiBQMxdOL4eRk4zHgnGYlLHypzIJXRzZG5VyF_tWn4y6ft9jNWlDqw=s1632" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1632" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiy9jeynmBq0RQRnvRfDqzw9kD-PftzEjHe3DkveLxZtABtXIgv2dz04vkWtaT6XuphEnsWf1A6T5X9rcjfdwEy7zP2NQXZogpAWHayem-G6j1i_9aAfQihnRdvc8repNfbeC9MGiBQMxdOL4eRk4zHgnGYlLHypzIJXRzZG5VyF_tWn4y6ft9jNWlDqw=w400-h219" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Tuesday, January 11, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,713.07 +42.78 (+0.92%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,252.02 +183.15 (+0.51%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,153.45 +210.62 (+1.41%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,194.00 +22.85 (+1.05%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 2669, off a point, and fell to 4638, the lo, before 10:00. Before 11:00 it started rising, and ran sideways for the last hour, and closed 1 point under the hi for a substantial gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 36059, off 10, and fell to 35769, the lo, off 299 before 10:00. It then climbed, hitting 36271, the hi, after 3:00, then slid about 30 points into the close for a moderate gain. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 1419, off 24 points. It dropped to 14838, the lo, off 105 at 9:45. It climbed until noon, then ran mostly sideways into the close, finishing with a large gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell opened flat at 2171. It fell to 2155, the lo, off 16 points. It reached 2193 after 2:00, and then ran sideways into the close for a substantial gain. </div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes dropped early, then recovered hitting their highs in the afternoon – when motions were more or less flat. Clearly, recent days have been a time of above normal volatility, and that might not end any time soon.</div><div><br /></div><div>Hang on to your hats, the ride could get thrilling.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXPy5oNrhBcwNGw0FuVGdNQIWjYfJxCZXPGAiXyP0vHJEnDawA5t5pNOmskX2Xm2rGH7FrmLPhcnId-Ese66iFUFVHd71HC80WJYk1nzAuETe0yRjS3g2qB_341vgxhzrJJl80kV51wIogsURjaH9TfHDlOctS9_iU2cpn4nPbaghy4BofVO4uks8yeA=s1652" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1652" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjXPy5oNrhBcwNGw0FuVGdNQIWjYfJxCZXPGAiXyP0vHJEnDawA5t5pNOmskX2Xm2rGH7FrmLPhcnId-Ese66iFUFVHd71HC80WJYk1nzAuETe0yRjS3g2qB_341vgxhzrJJl80kV51wIogsURjaH9TfHDlOctS9_iU2cpn4nPbaghy4BofVO4uks8yeA=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><b><u>Wednesday, January 12, 2021</u></b></p><p>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,726.35 +13.28 (+0.28%)</span></b></p><p>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">36,290.32 +38.30 (+0.11%)</span></b></p><p>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 15,188.39 +34.94 (+0.23%)</span></b></p><p>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,176.06 -17.95 (-0.82%)</span></b></p><p>The SP500 opened at 4729, up 16 points. It rose to 4749, the hi, up 36, at 10:45, and dropped to 4707, the lo, at 11:15. The rest of the day it chopped mostly sideways around 4720 and concluded with a small drop on a volume surge, ending with a small gain.</p><p>The DJI30 opened at 36336, up 84 points. It reached 36453, the hi, up 201, then fell to 36168, off 84. It chopped around the rest of the day, dropping slightly below neutral a couple more times. At the end, it slid a few points into the close on a volume surge.</p><p>The NASDAQ opened at 15263, up 110. It reached the hi, 15319, at 9:45, then dropped to the lo, 15117, between 11:00 and 11:30. The rest of the day was mostly sideways and slightly positive, ending with a slight gain.</p><p>The Russell 2000 opened at 2195, up less than a point. It reached 2210, the hi, at 10:00, then fell to, 2169, the lo, at 11:15. It spent the rest of the day in the red, and finished with a substantial loss.</p><p>The other 3 indexes were positive to small extents. The Russell is often an outlier, but represents a far greater number of issues. And even in that case, the day's hi and lo are both higher, so the span moved up, though the close was down. So this day is inconclusive. I hope.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqSUU3VmG2MiDDDzTDle1fQywalsSg1JFyCGUaXWL_YD2M_Xg6Z1rqdWtBbazZnh8AaSLRQh3X-ua8fxaL2G3Jo6UWGXwCgYM8RcWdxPpaHErAvr5CMH6spDaspxy4VM8IPH4FUY7BV-fsExmCbhGMK6s1GEY5dawfRs8zF6uHUnMRzl3xOcYYCLZXSA=s1622" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1622" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgqSUU3VmG2MiDDDzTDle1fQywalsSg1JFyCGUaXWL_YD2M_Xg6Z1rqdWtBbazZnh8AaSLRQh3X-ua8fxaL2G3Jo6UWGXwCgYM8RcWdxPpaHErAvr5CMH6spDaspxy4VM8IPH4FUY7BV-fsExmCbhGMK6s1GEY5dawfRs8zF6uHUnMRzl3xOcYYCLZXSA=w400-h215" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday, January 13, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,659.03 -67.32 (-1.42%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,113.62 -176.70 (-0.49%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 14,806.81 -381.58 (-2.51%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,159.44-16.62 (-0.76%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4733, up 7 points. It reached 4744, up 18 points, at 10:00, then fell the rest of the day. It hit, 5650, the lo, just moments before, and 9 points below the close. It finished with a large loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 36312, up 22. It hovered near 36514, up 224 from 11:30 until noon. It fell in 2 steps to 36044, the lo, moments before and 69 points under the close. It finished with a moderate loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15245, up 57, and reached 15260, the hi, before 10:00. It fell in 3 steps, reaching 14782, the lo, a few minutes before and 25 points below the close. It finished with a unusually large loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2177, up a point. I reached 2197, the hi, at 10:00. This was the first and highest of three peaks in the roller-coaster ride to the bottom. This occurred minutes before and 5 points below the close. It finished with a substantial loss. It sits now at a support level extending back a year.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjN3q_G326ygUNB-kqUmz743B6t9IL1O7c7ykREBebCYCfSy6ATsfF_tRengtApmtqJoAAUuggOOCUO-5j3mg15Zueb1w8YzvJvWJAMvjWkzqkK-kELNXDE18JNAjUWTIWPRzIWmosue0YnP8eseMpZQsoW3TPhIs8eEEb8wTEVxAumTqUSUDXo2yDMtg=s1606" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1606" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjN3q_G326ygUNB-kqUmz743B6t9IL1O7c7ykREBebCYCfSy6ATsfF_tRengtApmtqJoAAUuggOOCUO-5j3mg15Zueb1w8YzvJvWJAMvjWkzqkK-kELNXDE18JNAjUWTIWPRzIWmosue0YnP8eseMpZQsoW3TPhIs8eEEb8wTEVxAumTqUSUDXo2yDMtg=w400-h224" width="400" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Friday, January 14, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,662.85 +3.82 (+0.08%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,911.80 -201.79 (-0.56%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,893.80 +86.95 (+0.59%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,162.46 +3.02 (+0.14%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4636, off 21 points. It rose close to the day's hi before 10:30, but fell back to 4615, the lo, before 1:30. It then rose again, hitting 4665, the hi, just before closing about 2 points lower, for a minuscule gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>I've added a lower trend line to the chart, starting at 10/4/21. The index might be tracing an ending diagonal. If correct, there could be a blow off ending, followed by a sharp decline. We'll have to see how this plays out.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35996, the day's hi, off 117. It dropped to 35641, the lo, off 472, before 1:30. It then rose</div><div>to 35935 moments before the close, 23 points lower, for a modest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 14708, off 99 points. It rose to 14888, near the hi, before 9:30, then dropped, hitting 14689, the lo, off 117 before 1:30. From there it rose again, reaching 14898, the hi, moments before the close, for a modest gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2158, off a point. It reached 2156, off 3, before 10:30. It fell, hovering near 2126, the lo, around 1:30. It then climbed steadily to close at the hi for a small gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The indexes all had roughly similar contours, but with different magnitudes at different levels. Diversity in unity, I guess. Though I may have that backwards.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 -0.30%</div><div>DJI30 -0.88%</div><div>NASDAQ -0.28%</div><div>Russell 2000 -0.80%</div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh20cUDoXwIZiauHmmQoRJRsxoVxPR6BV7V3I1ZglcNfFzkE7-io0iU_qR2Iv-cNe-dqdRdObO3QJAxOUM36ddVQ4SdNW2YabJm8i-Tq-enWUZFNGMZo6Esy7lEip07KxDwQ_6DL5lyb-a6RQPb_uX9Jg4L48BEnRYbO_ylbGlHuSxUzCCI86ODJy2oQw=s1618" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1618" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh20cUDoXwIZiauHmmQoRJRsxoVxPR6BV7V3I1ZglcNfFzkE7-io0iU_qR2Iv-cNe-dqdRdObO3QJAxOUM36ddVQ4SdNW2YabJm8i-Tq-enWUZFNGMZo6Esy7lEip07KxDwQ_6DL5lyb-a6RQPb_uX9Jg4L48BEnRYbO_ylbGlHuSxUzCCI86ODJy2oQw=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-45826503955902532802022-01-03T22:40:00.004-05:002022-01-06T21:47:57.749-05:00<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, December 31, 2022</u></b></span></p><p><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: georgia;"><b>Green Arrow Up</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,</span></b></span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">796.56 +30.38 (+0.64%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,585.06 +246.76 (+0.68%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,832.80 +187.83 (+1.20%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,272.56 +27.24 (+1.21%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened at 4778, up 12 points, and after a rise dropped quickly, hitting 4758, the lo, before 10:00. It stayed below 4786 until 2:00, then rose to close within a fraction of the late day hi, for a solid gain. It achieved a new closing hi, but not a new intra-day hi. This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 10 points and the lo lower by 7. The index is still stalled near 4788, the critical resistance level identified last week.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI30 opened at 36322, off 17. It first rose, then fell to 36246, the lo, off 92, before 10:00. It stayed below 36495 until 2:00, then rose closing within a point of the late day hi, for a solid gain. It also achieved a new closing hi but not a new intra-day hi. It had an outside day, with the hi higher by 11 points, and the lo lower by 58. it also seems stalled near the earlier highs from November.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NAQSDAQ opened at 15733, up 88. After a brief rise it fell to 15644, off a fraction before 10:00. It stayed below 15785 until after 1:30. It stepped up to 15820 after 2:30, then went mostly sideways to close at 15832, the hi, for a substantial gain. It had a higher higher by 55 points, but the bottom was flat. It remans about 70 ponits under the early November highs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened at 2247, the lo, up over a point. It reached 2284, the hi, up 38 at 10:30. It dropped to 2260 after 11:30, and stayed at that level until after 3:00. After a slight dip it rose into the close, 12 points under the mid-morning hi. It had a clearly up day by 26 points at the top and 2 at the bottom, and remains about 200 points under the early November highs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">All things considered, this is a pretty good start to the week. But the situation is still ambiguous.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjM1b7btZTXre2e9wRHFURQsML0IhghJd35oWg-VU4s4DJ7lwPezBWO06orBJifYwvxf2BGyklVX_xQTXh6ww8OUS62UzPfsbi5tPTkOb_wDBxSa3xnwh8GJGlfqsoMRPoXOiWm6cTCUczs06EuQbodBxgHedF---jXoPpodjXfoqwtFG6ftHp47mL7g=s1638" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1638" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjjM1b7btZTXre2e9wRHFURQsML0IhghJd35oWg-VU4s4DJ7lwPezBWO06orBJifYwvxf2BGyklVX_xQTXh6ww8OUS62UzPfsbi5tPTkOb_wDBxSa3xnwh8GJGlfqsoMRPoXOiWm6cTCUczs06EuQbodBxgHedF---jXoPpodjXfoqwtFG6ftHp47mL7g=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, January 4, 2022</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,793.54 -3.02 (-0.06%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,799.65 +214.59 (+0.59%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,622.72 -210.08 (-1.33%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,268.87 +23.56 (+1.05%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4805, up 8 points and rose to 4819, the hi, up 22, before 10:00. It then fell, hitting 4774, the lo, off 22, at 2:00. It climbed again, hitting 4807 at 3:50, but then fell 11 points to close with a minute loss, on a volume surge. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Index is still hung up near the 4788 critical resistance level. </div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 36636, the lo, up 51 points, and hit 36935, the hi, up 350, before 11:00. It drooped to 36740, up 155 at 2:00, rose to 36890 at 3:50, then dropped 90 points into the close on a volume surge. Still, the Index achieved a new intra-day hi by 255 points and at the closing by 215. Obviously, this is a clearly up day that spent every moment well into positive territory. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15852, the hi, up 19, but fell to 15538 at 11:00. It stayed below 15607 until after 3:00, reaching 15512, the lo, off 320, when it had a slight rise, but then fell into the close on a volume surge. Because of the opening gain this was an outside day, but the lo was lower by 132 points. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2247, the lo, up 2 points. It immediately rose to 2288, the hi, up 43. It then slumped, reaching 2258 after 11:00. From there it meandered into the close for the day's largest gain. Th hi was up 4 points, but the lo was dead even with yesterday's.</div><div><br /></div><div>The indexes were strangely disconnected today, so no general trend can be identified. I'm taking this to be consistent with the idea that they are experiencing an ongoing corrective wave, against a higher level upward thrust; though the DJI and Russell might be starting the next upward wave. This is all very uncertain.</div><div><br /></div><div> </div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_dDLXoKANR1_VFNCE1rbbjr5DA9khKTLXpxju9GIrnjyj6S34iNSifz-QE7Fbvqvf8sQuQAzDsk5dofGjoIODUf_lwitAf3BjIoiX-viIyuvugSA_L6Uyg7WMrUowSRrOXH6UuMPvoUjl7ce_OLZJLOw4wjNCeCj8AmLHwfPt5h2gLqsX0DVCsholRQ=s1636" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1636" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_dDLXoKANR1_VFNCE1rbbjr5DA9khKTLXpxju9GIrnjyj6S34iNSifz-QE7Fbvqvf8sQuQAzDsk5dofGjoIODUf_lwitAf3BjIoiX-viIyuvugSA_L6Uyg7WMrUowSRrOXH6UuMPvoUjl7ce_OLZJLOw4wjNCeCj8AmLHwfPt5h2gLqsX0DVCsholRQ=w400-h219" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, January 5, 2022</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,700.58. -92.96 (-1.94%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,407.11 -392.54 (-1.07%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,100.17 -522.54 (-3.34%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,194.00 -74.87 (-3.30%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>This was not very good day, right from the beginning. Then, after 2:00, it got really bad, for all the indexes. Changes of a percent or so, in either direction, are not uncommon. Changes of 2 percent are uncommon. Changes of over 3% are rare.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 dropped almost 2% today, and is now closer to the critical support level than it is to the critical resistance level I mentioned several times recently. If that is breached significantly, then the presumed up-trend</div><div>is refuted.</div><div><br /></div><div>Futures are close to flat, but slightly positive as I write this, shortly after 9:00 p.m. EST. We'll see if that can carry into the next session.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWK1OJyJ-pzdvx5hIlesfGIihTrEBcJ2BiWeVjUS1IjEQt_O3D9msh0t8RtDli2W5GdUtWTUjr-zx9hDPfOB0Eoc4UjSrRojc0DL7hHZ5QgM86-Q53bLNU-wvULDWA-yL38IawUTCdZbCWoclwXxk-VW2eOPbVKAoovj7G6y7mZGzOXkRvqO8HxzEvbw=s1624" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1624" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgWK1OJyJ-pzdvx5hIlesfGIihTrEBcJ2BiWeVjUS1IjEQt_O3D9msh0t8RtDli2W5GdUtWTUjr-zx9hDPfOB0Eoc4UjSrRojc0DL7hHZ5QgM86-Q53bLNU-wvULDWA-yL38IawUTCdZbCWoclwXxk-VW2eOPbVKAoovj7G6y7mZGzOXkRvqO8HxzEvbw=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday, January 6, 2022</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;"> 4,696.05 -4.53 (-0.10%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,236.47 -170.64 (-0.47%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,080.87 -19.31 (-0.13%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,206.37 +12.37 (+0.56%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened and closed slightly negative. In between, it stayed within 25 points above and 29 points below neutral. It was inconclusive after yesterday's large loss. At the low it was 6 points under the critical support level at 4617. A significant breach will suggest further losses.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened slightly positive and spiked up 57 points after 12:30. The rest of the day was spent in the red, ending with a moderate loss. At the lo, it went slightly under the 144 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened negative and hit its minimum after 10:00. I spent most of the day slightly positive, but finished with a small loss. At the lo, it went slightly under the 145 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened flat and fell to its lo before 10:30. It spent the rest of the day positive, and finished with a modest gain. It spent the day below its moving averages.</div><div><br /></div><div>The bleeding didn't completely stop today, but it slowed down substantially. The gain in the Russell is hopeful. Let's hope tomorrow brings a recovery. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmUwWGDiCOmo4TY1Rib-Tos3FX5RpKa6ndbj_zQTs6XDdx49pIhMz92u4r9skXASy0In5djhMV0vMaIro1FbcTqp65GE8aS8IpJuwRRarzfq9Mb9w1Q1GvUkhjZRd6GvW8HNna0WeGSkjHpNjYfUSbQ1tGPvh0UjGQkli_4Ye6t8nUvD0ZEm0g62C-zA=s1604" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1604" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmUwWGDiCOmo4TY1Rib-Tos3FX5RpKa6ndbj_zQTs6XDdx49pIhMz92u4r9skXASy0In5djhMV0vMaIro1FbcTqp65GE8aS8IpJuwRRarzfq9Mb9w1Q1GvUkhjZRd6GvW8HNna0WeGSkjHpNjYfUSbQ1tGPvh0UjGQkli_4Ye6t8nUvD0ZEm0g62C-zA=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-47510595430878967462021-12-27T21:58:00.007-05:002021-12-31T21:32:28.678-05:00Taking Stock -- Week of December 27, 2021<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, December 27, 2021</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,791.19 +65.40 (+1.38%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,302.38 +351.82 (+0.98%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,871.26 +217.89 (+1.39%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,261.46 +19.89 (+0.89%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened at 4733, up 8 points, and immediate;y rose to 4750. It then rose more slowly, reaching 4774 at noon and 4784 at 2:30. After a slight draw back it rose into the late day hi, closing less than a point lower. Last Thursday the index came within 4 points of a new intra-day hi. Also on Thursday it reached a new closing hi by 13 points, and today it exceeded that by 65.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Elliott Wave analyst Avi Gilbert identifies 4677 as a critical support level to maintain the short term bullish case. A significant break of that level means that a corrective phase is unfolding with further declines expected. He also identifies 4788 [top horizontal line on the graph] as critical resistance. An impulsive break through suggests further gains ahead.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI30 opened at 35954, up 4 points, and immediately rose to 36077. It chopped up and down for 45 minutes, then climbed again reaching 36187 at 12:15 and 36265 at 2:30. After a slump to 36200 after 3:00 it rose sharply to close 4 points under the late day hi. This index is approaching new highs, but has not yet achieved them.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened at 15697, up 43 points, and quickly rose to 15763. After a brief draw back it climbed to </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">155844 at 12:15 and after 2:30. Following a slump to 15825 before 2:30 it rose to close within a fraction of the day's hi. It is still 200 to 400 points under recent all time highs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened at 2242, up a point. It slumped to 2230, off 11, at 10:00, then quickly rose, reaching 2255 at 11:15. It ran horizontal above 2250 until after 3:30 when it climbed sharply into the close for the day's largest gain. It remains about 200 points under the recent all time highs.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This is a nice follow up to last week's gains, and a good start to the week. Maybe there is a Santa Clause.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHFoSOIxh2fw8Uuz68CwVB3jO0FiPnztldsqDGyylF84zY6Cyqoz987p_OwYPsS3S0puCc3JBFi0x9lKRdQOIlYXftocF-AW_pZvFmOmLQ-Enhh-e23KrQMY4BDa87ZN_bpQx3cxeSdpelmO4jzEJ7z4M66BYKFzFdW17mt_ji70GVeb44cpN-0RaEpQ=s1600" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1600" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHFoSOIxh2fw8Uuz68CwVB3jO0FiPnztldsqDGyylF84zY6Cyqoz987p_OwYPsS3S0puCc3JBFi0x9lKRdQOIlYXftocF-AW_pZvFmOmLQ-Enhh-e23KrQMY4BDa87ZN_bpQx3cxeSdpelmO4jzEJ7z4M66BYKFzFdW17mt_ji70GVeb44cpN-0RaEpQ=w400-h221" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, December 28, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,786.32 -4.87 (-0.10%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- 36,398.21 <b><span style="color: #38761d;">+95.83 (+0.26%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,781.72 -89.54 (-0.56%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,246.51 -14.95 (-0.66%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4795, up 4 points. It reached 4807, the day's hi, before 10:00. It then dropped the rest of the day in two choppy looking steps, hitting 4780, the lo, at 12:30. It then wandered into the close for a small loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>It reached a new intra-day hi, but not a new closing hi, faltering within 10 points of the critical resistance level I mentioned yesterday. But after 5 strong days, a slight pull back is not a surprise, and does not, on its own, impede the bullish case.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 followed a roughly similar path, It opened at 36302, the day's lo, up a fraction, and reached 36527, up 225, the hi, after 10:00. It also fell in two steps, hitting 36344, an intermediate lo, at 12:30, before chopping into the close for the day's only gain. It remains about 40 points under all time highs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 24, and reached 15901, the hi, up 30, at 10:00. It had a bumpy ride down until hitting 15757, the lo, off 114, after 2:00. From there it was a slight rise and fall into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2261, off a fraction. It reached 2275, the hi, up 13, at 10:00. It fell to 2246, the lo, off 16, at 12:30, struggled to reach 2257 at 3:30, then drooped, finishing within a point of the lo for the day's largest loss.</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-6ta9pC7Yn61y23-nJgb_fOsKyB-LLBEXdD5AEV4jWiok-0jy9rfcSxb8bwYKNdZZAfo4vaA6SmJi6WsWGIjoHDrxJU-RtBTM7oJZZvyk7gyuCANTNNAAXy4L6Th0JKMt6P23XLDanMa9SqM6QUnt4Uip2pKZqUWB65sfiRB746nrpYp77mMgG_rLMQ=s1622" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1622" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-6ta9pC7Yn61y23-nJgb_fOsKyB-LLBEXdD5AEV4jWiok-0jy9rfcSxb8bwYKNdZZAfo4vaA6SmJi6WsWGIjoHDrxJU-RtBTM7oJZZvyk7gyuCANTNNAAXy4L6Th0JKMt6P23XLDanMa9SqM6QUnt4Uip2pKZqUWB65sfiRB746nrpYp77mMgG_rLMQ=w400-h219" width="400" /></a></div><p><b><u>Wednesday December 29, 2021</u></b></p><p>Yellow Arrow Sideways</p><p>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,793.06 +6.71 (+0.14%)</span></b></p><p>DJI30 --- 3<b><span style="color: #38761d;">6,488.63 +90.42 (+0.25%)</span></b></p><p>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">115,766.22 -15.51 (-0.10%)</span></b></p><p>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,249.24 +2.74 (+0.12%)</span></b></p><p>The SP500 opened at 4789, up 2 points, and dropped to 4778, the lo, off 8 points at 10:15. It stayed under 4793 until 2:00, and reached 4804, the hi at 3:50, the dropped hard into the close for a small gain. </p><p>The DJI30 opened at 36421, up 23, quickly reached 36509, up 111, then dropped to 36396, off 2, the lo, at 10:15. It stayed below 36509 until 3:00, and reached 46572.the hi at 3:50 before dropping hard into the close for a modest gain. </p><p>The NASDAQ opened at 15795, up 13, and dropped to 15680, off 102 at 10:15. It then stayed below 15777 until 3:30, hitting 15792 after 3:50, followed by a drop into the close for a small loss. </p><p>The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, off a fraction, and dropped to 2237, off 10, at 10:15. It climbed to 2253, the hi, after 11:00. it snaked around neutral, staying above 2243 the rest of the day, then rising from that level after 3:30 to close with a small gain.</p><p>Today's action appears to be counter-current to the presumed short term up trend. The SP500 has stalled within a few points of 4788, the critical resistance level identified by Avi Gilbert. Pushing through that level with an impulse will validate the bullish case.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmXo_UK7GTdbot_5xdNPI05RtBpLo6-bzCg5Qd5AEXz28BQMevPSqOuLQbM9P0gfUaniVTcin8i-RocIG_nH_rR2qJ_-3e_plGGv_a7NAxggZ6x8SBlSpDARLZ0ObWfcxN1fvDKWapTlVhYFnPrkRE5uSFcu3Ydl3V7rJl0_r_y1W5SkPFTjkCT1zjTw=s1606" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1606" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhmXo_UK7GTdbot_5xdNPI05RtBpLo6-bzCg5Qd5AEXz28BQMevPSqOuLQbM9P0gfUaniVTcin8i-RocIG_nH_rR2qJ_-3e_plGGv_a7NAxggZ6x8SBlSpDARLZ0ObWfcxN1fvDKWapTlVhYFnPrkRE5uSFcu3Ydl3V7rJl0_r_y1W5SkPFTjkCT1zjTw=w400-h221" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday December 30, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,778.73 -14.33 (-0.30%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,398.08 -90.55 (-0.25%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,741.56 -24.65 (-0.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,248.79 -0.45 (-0.02%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4794, up 1. It reached 4809, up 16, the hi, before 10:30. It drifted slowly lower until 3:30, when it fell sharply, hitting 4775, the low, just 3 minutes before the close. The 3 point rise at the end came on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The index remains stalled near the critical resistance level of 4788. It did reach a new intra-day hi by less than 2 points, but missed a closing hi by 12.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 36522, up 34, and quickly rose to 36679, up 191. It dropped to 36500 at 11:45, and wound around that level until 3:30 when it dropped hitting 36372, the low, 3 minutes before the close. It rose 26 points into the close on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15759, off 7 points. It rose to 15855 before 10:30. I hovered near that level nutil 2:30, hitting 15868, the hi, at noon. At 3:00 it fell hard, reaching 15729, the lo, 3 minutes before the lo. It the rose 13 points on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2249. It rose to 2272, the hi, up 23, after 10:00. It stayed above 2265, hitting the hi again at 2:45. It then dropped hard, hitting 2247, the lo, off 2 points, 3 minutes before the close. It then rose, ending off a half point. </div><div><br /></div><div>This appears to be a counter-current wave still unfolding.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgox2lQCQ1Lc8GWKOKQB8FIdmnMYZwq0MEWFAQXr15zhjCgHzQzaT2L7AP4-r0cNLNZXIJ2tBB-T439jicQhvs-kqyTvtjHQB58B-PGcHOhKFtr4lKsrCyG5Wmv59KkGdsDWr8-c5Xvs8iQkUFhAtf2HViKR0Kvs7YNY861RFITabeusyTaHzcDhjqFmw=s1610" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="908" data-original-width="1610" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgox2lQCQ1Lc8GWKOKQB8FIdmnMYZwq0MEWFAQXr15zhjCgHzQzaT2L7AP4-r0cNLNZXIJ2tBB-T439jicQhvs-kqyTvtjHQB58B-PGcHOhKFtr4lKsrCyG5Wmv59KkGdsDWr8-c5Xvs8iQkUFhAtf2HViKR0Kvs7YNY861RFITabeusyTaHzcDhjqFmw=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday December 31, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,766.18 -12.55 (-0.26%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">36,338.30 -59.78 (-0.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,644.97 -96.59 (-0.61%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,245.31 -3.48 (-0.15%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4775, off 4 points, and quickly rose to 4787, the hi, up 8. It then fell and stayed slightly negative until 1:00. It spent most of the afternoon chopping around neutral, but dropped vertically in the last 15 minutes to finish within a half point of the last minute lo, on a volume surge, for a small loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>Today's action surrounded the critical resistance level identified earlier in the week. So the year ends on a very uncertain note. Is a counter-current wave unfolding, or is the index topping and ready to fall?</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 36386, off 12, and stayed in negative territory until 1:00, hitting 36304, the lo, off 94, before 12:30. It then spend most of the afternoon above neutral, hitting 36485, the hi, up 87 after 2:00. It also took a dive at the end on a volume surge, ending 34 points above the low, for a small loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15723, off 19. Ot quickly rose to 15777, the hi, up 36. It dropped to 15694 around 11:00, and stayed close to that level until the last 15 minutes when it dropped to 15644, the lo, 1 point below the close. It finished with the day's largest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, 0ff 3 points, and climbed to 2258, the hi, up 9, after 10:00. It meandered close to the neutral line until the last few minutes when it fell to close just a half point above the late-day lo.</div><div><br /></div><div>These choppy losses over the last few days do not look impulsive; so I still think we are seeing counter-current motion within an upward trend.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjz98VUHz-EnerJDadO2G68jooYCxmx2LSIgF3xoc5DXRZqytOQLEye5m3cotSOAp2FVUF69DddquoaxlRBeojLu9x4gUpX04vI8PlY539-qnBN7gPUykaLRtVHswGRhdjXfiqRH92m2hYaZI0qPsFEpgD23-mvjqf7InEJHS4oe8115MlyaPrOgb7x-w=s1624" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1624" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjz98VUHz-EnerJDadO2G68jooYCxmx2LSIgF3xoc5DXRZqytOQLEye5m3cotSOAp2FVUF69DddquoaxlRBeojLu9x4gUpX04vI8PlY539-qnBN7gPUykaLRtVHswGRhdjXfiqRH92m2hYaZI0qPsFEpgD23-mvjqf7InEJHS4oe8115MlyaPrOgb7x-w=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-6677658149134694952021-12-20T21:28:00.007-05:002021-12-23T21:40:26.954-05:00Taking Stock - Week of December 20, 2021<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, December 20, 2021</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,568.02 -52.62 (-1.14%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,932.16 -433.28 (-1.23%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,980.94 -188.74 (-1.24%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,139.87 -34.06 (-1.57%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Not one minute was spent in positive territory by any of these indexes. And they all lost more than a percent. This is a thoroughly dismal start to the week. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Elliott wave analyst Avi Gilbert identified the range 4550 to 4585 as a critical support level to preserve the short term bullish case. Today's minimum was 4531, and the index stayed below 4550 from about 10:30 until 1:30, finishing squarely in the support range. The red line on the chart is at 4550.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">So, despite the weak performance, the trend direction is still ambiguous.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpSXJiDoV6H1pFWFA7wG40Jxm8U0QYpDljprw79ol8zOn2JaoD0vhiJqFPSKBL-mkFQs5eDvhL8CP_3z7p2fVnhiu60cb4f5rFZza0ZhyQhTNOTO_ZlKcCNZWBr_nq6nJDA9NodwgrOF_ZdHJ6Qrb_FL4S8C-v4WNWt29QCsSTgOz312YZMT9f2ynjFw=s1612" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1612" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpSXJiDoV6H1pFWFA7wG40Jxm8U0QYpDljprw79ol8zOn2JaoD0vhiJqFPSKBL-mkFQs5eDvhL8CP_3z7p2fVnhiu60cb4f5rFZza0ZhyQhTNOTO_ZlKcCNZWBr_nq6nJDA9NodwgrOF_ZdHJ6Qrb_FL4S8C-v4WNWt29QCsSTgOz312YZMT9f2ynjFw=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><div><b><u>Tuesday, December 21, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,603.84. +35.82 (+0.78%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,492.70 +560.54 (+1.60%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,341.09 +360.14 (+2.40%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,202.95 +63.07 (+2.95%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4595, up 27 points. It dropped to 4583, the lo, after 10:30. It rose the rest of the day, closing less than 2 points under the hi. It held support just below the 4550 level mentioned yesterday. This is the highest close since 12/16.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35070, the lo, up 137 points. I hovered near 35509, the hi, most of the time after 1:00. The close was abut 15 points under the hi. This is the highest close since 12/16.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15140, off 29 points. It dropped to 15015, the lo, after 10:00. It rose the rest of the day, closing 8 points under the hi. It held support at the 144 EMA .This is the highest close since 12/15.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2141, the lo, up 2 points. It rose the entire day to finish a small fraction of point under the hi for the day's largest gain. It held support at the 144 day EMA. This close the highest since 12/10.</div><div><br /></div></span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhEsyakW9RtfyGVP-27Z0qqPbJ6z4NVHYsqF9lx_toQvFzLP78621o3NtNL0uftYQ_gI9BCgSeb7EealAmPuHRxai3T77ZMmqUX8cU62qQRIq_lPZ8Q064nsXWnzmhw2Qi50V13_8TzyyJ5oRtNVbAuOiCTPMML2y6wMGCMfq2qOUwjEQSJ24d1laBoWg=s1616" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1616" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhEsyakW9RtfyGVP-27Z0qqPbJ6z4NVHYsqF9lx_toQvFzLP78621o3NtNL0uftYQ_gI9BCgSeb7EealAmPuHRxai3T77ZMmqUX8cU62qQRIq_lPZ8Q064nsXWnzmhw2Qi50V13_8TzyyJ5oRtNVbAuOiCTPMML2y6wMGCMfq2qOUwjEQSJ24d1laBoWg=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, December 22, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,696.56 +47.33 (+1.02%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,753.89 +261.19 (+0.74%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,521.89 +180.81 (+1.18%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,221.90 +18.96 (+0.86%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4650, up a point, and quickly fell to 4645, the lo. It climbed to 4688 at 1:00, and after a slight draw back rose to 4698, the hi, just before and about a point above the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35492, off 1, and until after 10:00 bounced near 35433, off 60. It rose to 35762 at 1:00. After a slight drawback it rose to 35765, just before and 11 points above the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15319, off 22. It quickly dropped to 15303, off 38, then climbed to 15492 at noon. After a partial drawback it rose to 15526 just before and 4 points above the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell opened at 2202, off a fraction. It bounced further into negative territory, hitting near 2195, the lo, off 8. It climbed to 2219 after 1:00, and after a partial draw back climbed to 2223, a few minutes before and less than a point above the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>After a rather shaky start this was a day of solid gains. The SP500 is approaching close to its recent all time highs. But the other indexes are not. Today's gains add support to the bullish short term case, but are far from definitive.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKetmtjaTgsGV9c6Y-hDNqf-S6LhNd4OuhitjNSK0Dzu7cTlDnO1uNk7bAbWEXEIVrSUldBVSAEag5_tfsIRaBifllhRAvukjuFfOsaCsLDkhsw2PpGibnDr2-dAsXC-mcKtlhnZlsseKw-KE47cpg_Uz7jnK4RTW6sX9nJZEffCngPike1jasYwsJXA=s1622" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1622" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiKetmtjaTgsGV9c6Y-hDNqf-S6LhNd4OuhitjNSK0Dzu7cTlDnO1uNk7bAbWEXEIVrSUldBVSAEag5_tfsIRaBifllhRAvukjuFfOsaCsLDkhsw2PpGibnDr2-dAsXC-mcKtlhnZlsseKw-KE47cpg_Uz7jnK4RTW6sX9nJZEffCngPike1jasYwsJXA=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday, December 23, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,725.79 +29.23 (+0.62%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,950.56 +196.67 (+0.55%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,653.37 +131.48 (+0.85%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,242.75 +20.85 (+0.94%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4704, up 7 and rose quickly until 11:15 when it level off near 4730. It climbed to 4740 after 3:45, then fell 15 points into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35782, up 71 and quickly rose to 35970. It ran near that level until 1:45, when it rose again hitting 36061, the high after 3:45, then fell 110 points into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15545, up 23, and climbed quickly until mid-morning. It then climbed more slowly until 3:00, when it slipped a bit until 3:30, the rose to 1598, the hi, before dropping 45 points into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2222, up a fraction. After languishing for an hour it rose, reaching 2248, the hi, at 2:00. From there, it was a bumpy 6 point slide into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>This was a day of substantial gains, only marred by the declines in the closing moments. This could be the beginning of a down turn or just part of a counter-current wave at some lo level of trend, assuming this week's gains are impulsive. </div><div><br /></div><div>That wraps up this week, with the markets closed tomorrow in observance of the Christmas holiday.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly gains</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 + 2.28%</div><div>DJI30 + 1.65%</div><div>NASDAQ + 3.19%</div><div>Russell + 3.11%</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicHvG_hfq53qySKE6GIp4M-TLWqxMZQr89Y4H-WmiWHXnsg3rtLglHZe0z22Lvi15dOsMmLcPGgXZgoIfyquJfnLCWsuyC6efkB-sAFRipVHZFSDf6OvABnN1QA_eDZAvE09uu9hxqLundMaRDhzXwH5FuFg5x8N49IKC-hCIbS1R33_fNzqAGvUJQuw=s1632" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="904" data-original-width="1632" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEicHvG_hfq53qySKE6GIp4M-TLWqxMZQr89Y4H-WmiWHXnsg3rtLglHZe0z22Lvi15dOsMmLcPGgXZgoIfyquJfnLCWsuyC6efkB-sAFRipVHZFSDf6OvABnN1QA_eDZAvE09uu9hxqLundMaRDhzXwH5FuFg5x8N49IKC-hCIbS1R33_fNzqAGvUJQuw=w400-h221" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><p></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-12999327557033814402021-12-13T18:30:00.005-05:002021-12-19T10:07:24.202-05:00Taking Stock - Week of December 13, 2021<p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: x-small;"><b><u>Monday, December 13, 2021 </u></b></span></span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: red; font-family: georgia;"><b>Red Arrow Down </b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #050505;">SP500 at the close --- </span><span style="color: red;"><b>4,668.97. -43.05 (-0.91%)</b></span></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #050505;">DJI30 --- </span><b><span style="color: red;">35,650.95 -320.04 (-0.89%)</span></b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia;"></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><span style="color: #050505;">NASDAQ --- </span><b><span style="color: red;">15,413.28 -217.32 (-1.39%)</span></b></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-family: georgia; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #050505;">Russell 2000 --- </span><b><span style="color: red;">2,180.50 -31.31 (-1.42%)</span></b></span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened at 4710, the day's hi, off 2 points, and fell to near 4670 from 11:30 to noon. It recovered to near 4690 from 3:00 to 3:30, then fell into the close, less than 2 points above the late day lo, on a volume surge.</span></span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;">The DJI30 opened at 35959, the day's hi, off 12 points, and fell near 35620 from 11:00 to noon. It slowly rose to 35790 at 3:45, then fell almost 140 points into the close on a volume surge.</span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened at 15621, off 9 points. It dropped to about 15420 for a while near noon. It rose to 15520 after 3:00, then fell hard after 3:30 to close only 5 points above the late day lo.</span></span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;">The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2212, the day's hi. It dropped to 2169, the lo, at noon, then recovered to 2195 at about 3:15. then fell15 points into the close for the day's largest loss.</span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;">This is a dismal start to the week, with each index starting at or near the high, then tumbling to finish close to the day's lo.</span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;">At this point, I have no idea if the current trend is up or down. I can justify an up trend continuing based on the SP500 chart; but the Russell 2000 looks like it is heading down.</span></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="color: #050505; font-family: georgia; font-size: small;"><br /></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhXq9GOlHKZZ0RnyvWOOVZ175SFLFBE0duVFg6cdOPFxkc92mODQBTHru-G3OtmLdqCGfzQrC_veFSmJ5AaauxRKvcMAEMdXrnK19rignqAjDPGI1F0tqAUgeBo9llSZAOijiJePXpDgYWkBcZ1pYqMfL6Gqrmkwnm5MrUdOSqsKKxt-_iE1DQaVW8nrw=s1622" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1622" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhXq9GOlHKZZ0RnyvWOOVZ175SFLFBE0duVFg6cdOPFxkc92mODQBTHru-G3OtmLdqCGfzQrC_veFSmJ5AaauxRKvcMAEMdXrnK19rignqAjDPGI1F0tqAUgeBo9llSZAOijiJePXpDgYWkBcZ1pYqMfL6Gqrmkwnm5MrUdOSqsKKxt-_iE1DQaVW8nrw=w400-h219" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b><u>Tuesday, December 14, 2021 </u></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down </span></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,634.09 -34.88 (-0.75%)</span></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">DJI30 ---<b><span style="color: red;"> 35,544.18 -106.77 (-0.30%)</span></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,237.64 -175.64 (-1.14%)</span></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 2,159.65 -20.84 (-0.96%)</span></b></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The SP500 opened at 4643, off 26 points. It fell to near 4607, the lo, off 62, from noon until 2:00. It reached 4650, an intermediate hi, after 3:30, then fell under 4630 before a slight rise into the close. At the lo, it was near the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and still above potential support from early September.</p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The DJI30 opened at 35606, off 45 points. It bounced around near 35442, the low, from 11:00 to 2:00. It rose to 35640 after 3:30, then fell under 35500 before a slight rise into the close. At the lo, it was near both the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and a potential support zone from mid August.</p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The NASDAQ opened at 15216, off 197 points. It reached 15318, the hi, off 96, at 9:45. I stayed near 15097, the lo, off 316, from 11:00 to 2:00, and rose to 15290 after 3:30. It then fell to 15210 before a slight rise into the close. It is hovering in what could be a support level from early September.</p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The Russell 2000 opened at 2179, off 2 points. It reached 2190, the hi, up 9, before 10:30, and fell to 2153, the lo, off 27, at 2:00. It rose above 2170 at 3:30, then fell to 2156 before slight rise into the close. At the low, it was in the vicinity of a support line going back a year. A strong breach of 2160 would be a very bad sign. </p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;">The idea that the current trend is up is still supportable for the SP500 and DJI30, strained for the NASDAQ, and highly suspicious for the Russell 2000. One way or another, the picture should offer some clarity before the end of the week. Maybe. I hope. </p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijpOqdhx5sS75hD_YlyCC2vv6PX6g51RBNYDwqzK3Bg6sc11JyBal6X3mOF0xEUq3t7MG5MTuBaIHbilNg8dOdNqkKXSXPfnrZBd0RkoqVBVN0fL5qQzB5AUuvnt9p09OjZPXO-DllkpOloop48P5Bx1DgJO6n-TXHhuln4B3GjMPo9F6ahbpLXrRL2g=s1614" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1614" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijpOqdhx5sS75hD_YlyCC2vv6PX6g51RBNYDwqzK3Bg6sc11JyBal6X3mOF0xEUq3t7MG5MTuBaIHbilNg8dOdNqkKXSXPfnrZBd0RkoqVBVN0fL5qQzB5AUuvnt9p09OjZPXO-DllkpOloop48P5Bx1DgJO6n-TXHhuln4B3GjMPo9F6ahbpLXrRL2g=w400-h221" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, December 15, 2021 </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,709.75 +75.66 (+1.63%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,927.43 +383.25 (+1.08%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,565.58 +327.94 (+2.15%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b> <span style="color: #38761d;">2,195.21 +35.56 (+1.65%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4636, up 2 points, then stayed near 4611, the lo, from 10:00 until 2:00. There was a sharp but bumpy rise into the hi, just 2 points above the close, with a volume surge in the waning moments. </div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35549, up 5 points, and quickly fell to 35390, the lo, off 155. It hovered slightly above that level util almost noon, when it began a slow rise that accelerated after 2:00. This led up to the late day hi, just 16 points above the close, ending on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15231, off 7 points. It slid down to 15055, the lo, off 182, before 12:30. After 2:00 if started rising up to the close, ending only 10 points under the late day hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2160, up a fraction, and dropped to 3131, the lo, off 29 before noon. After 2:00, it rose, hitting over 2199 about 20 minutes before the close, 5 points lower.</div><div><br /></div><div>These nice increases are comforting. But it is still unclear which way the indexes are heading. One day is not enough to clarify things – so hang on for the next few days.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhROoM6RBW0kM6cnTMP1vRI8Nrq19ihQiPUsPlJqJF8MDFw-pw2ev7VD9dzJ14ZI39xdOKZcLS_4TKn1ZoaE4WG6wLZuYS6m2zDQsyhw6dVLoGNM2NEqsFPw8D4QvLOuaqTvt7o6KfiKs2DO-zDHiDFH8xtEtSgUw0r0R392bGgLmXzRUov9qMihY96MQ=s1626" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1626" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhROoM6RBW0kM6cnTMP1vRI8Nrq19ihQiPUsPlJqJF8MDFw-pw2ev7VD9dzJ14ZI39xdOKZcLS_4TKn1ZoaE4WG6wLZuYS6m2zDQsyhw6dVLoGNM2NEqsFPw8D4QvLOuaqTvt7o6KfiKs2DO-zDHiDFH8xtEtSgUw0r0R392bGgLmXzRUov9qMihY96MQ=w400-h217" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Thursday, December 16, 2021 </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down </span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,668.67 -41.18 (-0.87%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,897.64 -29.79 (-0.08%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,180.43 -385.15 (-2.47%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,152.46 -42.75 (-1.95%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4719, up 9 points. It fell pretty steadily to the4652, the lo, off 58, before rising to 4686, then sliding into the close on a volume surge, for a substantial loss, despite the hi and lo both being higher..</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 36036, up 109, and rose to 36199, the hi, up 262 It then fell to 35778, the lo, off 149, before 3:00. It rose to 36025 after 3:30, the slumped to the close on a volume surge for a tiny loss. Still, the hi and lo were both higher.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15629, up 64 points, quickly rose 4 into the hi, then dropped to 15119, the lo, before 3:00. It rose to 15245 after 3:30, then slid into the close for a huge loss. Contra that, the hi and lo were both higher.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell opened at 2197, up less than 2 points, and rose to 2216, the hi, up 21, before 10:00. It fell to 2145, the lo, off 51, then stumbled into the close for a large loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>This was a strange session with losses ranging from insignificant to massive, but higher extremes in all the indexes. The Russell is hovering at its support level, with today's range surrounding 2160. This appears to be a significant level, and a meaningful break lower could be a worrisome signal.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3zs9DD_mMgwce8iTFZ1sKu9LaRhCOO-NYwl13xNwVwiPxFD0qsq3ix9qEywDfbDjpXCWgiQBHZGg-o0XWh0XGTwGg3z4_i4DZd0z-MbAAbThhPr9KbtkoHEUmB4G8ho37lzOMowuGlXlzZDE_qeJxlaNAHjBD-wYBvKGDwc5pg_En7_hBAXMaII5XeQ=s1608" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1608" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi3zs9DD_mMgwce8iTFZ1sKu9LaRhCOO-NYwl13xNwVwiPxFD0qsq3ix9qEywDfbDjpXCWgiQBHZGg-o0XWh0XGTwGg3z4_i4DZd0z-MbAAbThhPr9KbtkoHEUmB4G8ho37lzOMowuGlXlzZDE_qeJxlaNAHjBD-wYBvKGDwc5pg_En7_hBAXMaII5XeQ=w400-h223" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Friday, December 17, 2021 </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down </span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,620.64 -48.03 (-1.03%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,365.44 -532.20 (-1.48%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,169.68 -10.75 (-0.07%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,173.93 +21.48 (+1.00%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4653, off 16 points. It dropped to 4600, the lo, off 68, at 10:15, then rose to 4667, the hi, off 2, an hour later. After a smaller drop and rise, it slid from 2:00 into the close, on a volume surge at the end for a substantial loss. The day's range is above the 55 dy EMA, and surrounds the 13 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35800, the hi, off 98 points. It dropped to 35284, the lo, off 611, at 10:15, then rose to 36661 at 11:15. From there tumbled the rest of the day, closing about 80 points above the lo for a substantial loss, The day's range surrounds the 13 and 55 day EMAs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15037, of 144 points, and dropped to 14960, the lo, off 220. a few minutes later It reached 15289, the hi, up 108 at 11:15. It didn't drop below 15111 again, and snaked around neutral the rest of the day, closing with a tiny loss. These values are above the 144 EMA , but below the 55 EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2153, then dropped to 2125, the lo, off 28. It hovered near 2186, the hi, up 34, from before 11:00 until after 11:30. It stayed above 2165 he rest of the day, and slid into the close for a substantial gain. It is straddling the support level around 2160.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's unusual for the Russell to gains when the other indexes are down. This might all still be counter-current to the main thrust. But which way that is heading is ambiguous. That uncertainty itself suggests counter-current motion. We'll just have to wait and see.</div><div><br /></div><div>This week's losses were not enough to negate last week's large gains.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> - </div><div>SP500 –1/94%</div><div>DJI30 -1.68%</div><div>NASDAQ -2.95%</div><div>Russell 2000 -1.71%</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqKeyb7L904Cpm3AtOXgzpsw63rvHhNu1Kpnoy3AG_QvqgLdKVW_dDnmpJwwZP38CM1fLuLSgaywDizUb_YQ5blqyGXb6MjLAOF6cT6AWovHNaYgmvBDX4Z8NNPshrJiTuciEhrUQbCH5sKlxFSQ6jNtR1fXKO-IDUjPKYhAbydqOFjhbkG3WHgOp1Uw=s1610" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1610" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjqKeyb7L904Cpm3AtOXgzpsw63rvHhNu1Kpnoy3AG_QvqgLdKVW_dDnmpJwwZP38CM1fLuLSgaywDizUb_YQ5blqyGXb6MjLAOF6cT6AWovHNaYgmvBDX4Z8NNPshrJiTuciEhrUQbCH5sKlxFSQ6jNtR1fXKO-IDUjPKYhAbydqOFjhbkG3WHgOp1Uw=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p><p align="LEFT" style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-26798911855776725632021-12-06T20:32:00.007-05:002021-12-11T21:56:52.416-05:00Taking Stock - Week of December 6, 2021<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday December 6, 2021 </u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,591.67 +53.24 (+1.17%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,227.03 +646.95 (+1.87%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,225.15 +139.68 (+0.93%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,203.48 +44.17 (+2.05%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened at 4548, up 10 points, and reached its lo, 4541, up 2 a few minutes later. It hovered near 4613, the hi, from 1:30 to 2:30, then slid 21 points into the close</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI 30 opened at 34633, the lo, up 53. It hovered near the hi, 35357, up 777, from 1:00 until after 2:30. It then slid 130 points into the close.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened at 15111, up 32 points, and quickly dropped to its low, 1492, off 153. It hovered near 15282, the hi, from 1:30 until after 2:30, then slid 57 points into the close.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened at 2160, up 1 point. It hit it's lo, off 5, a few minutes later; and it's hi, 2218, up 59, after 2:00, then slid 15 points into the close. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">It's been a rough road since Thanksgiving; but this is a nice start to the week. The slips at the end are the only negative. As I write this at about 8:30 pm, index futures are up slightly. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtLIic7TAofQngiNO2dCwqjQcRaOGOYH3vQomwrCMZls62wA6m8SER_hMOIcIO_VnOx4AlPknKKT7kwCVC9xRsTB1mQA9Yt1_gXXjZKkN6shDyMmpsR5p-J4cuUSHrzg8A6mN7oXtwqlQI37xRnpMhDJ71EaPvhPvKDn4laAliWlFJvMzeUBvd7ba_HQ=s1632" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1632" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtLIic7TAofQngiNO2dCwqjQcRaOGOYH3vQomwrCMZls62wA6m8SER_hMOIcIO_VnOx4AlPknKKT7kwCVC9xRsTB1mQA9Yt1_gXXjZKkN6shDyMmpsR5p-J4cuUSHrzg8A6mN7oXtwqlQI37xRnpMhDJ71EaPvhPvKDn4laAliWlFJvMzeUBvd7ba_HQ=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><div><b><u>Tuesday December 7, 2021 </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,686.75 +95.08 (+2.07%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,719.43. +492.40 (+1.40%)</span></b></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;"> </span></b></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 15,686.92 +461.76 (+3.03%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,253.79 +50.31 (+2.28%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes had similar contours today, leading to substantial gains.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4632, up 40 points. It reached its hi, 4694, up 102 after 11:00. It hovered just below that level until after 3:00, when it took a plunge under 4670 after 3:50, then sharply recovered into the close on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 35424, up 197 points, and reached its hi, 35819, at 11:00. It hung under that level until after 3:00, when it fell, but not as sharply as the SP500. It also rose into the close on a volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15511, up 286 points. It climbed to its hi.15720, up 286, before 2:00. It also fell after 3:00, and then rose into the close for the day's largest gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2207, up 3 points. After 11:00 it reached its hi, 2272, up 68. It also has a dip and recovery late in the day.</div><div>This is a good start to yesterday's gains, but there is still a ways to go to reach the recent new highs. The SP500 is the closest, and the Russell is the farthest away.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9dyvk9oz1iq5_WhsL_ioKwOJ4YMdZhW3r4lspHrvRvtolUcAUcwwnFYX66Viij1VVaedobJ_imBvxepYQq5jVjU2BisXGWg0B1EdnaFoSqr0CP6dvC38XB1OTfPqd9Vr1WDOQWBXNxKQ0SHEN4rvaw9DAfpUTEBT_Napq3HWw74OP-pM2mTl4PtdZBQ=s1608" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1608" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj9dyvk9oz1iq5_WhsL_ioKwOJ4YMdZhW3r4lspHrvRvtolUcAUcwwnFYX66Viij1VVaedobJ_imBvxepYQq5jVjU2BisXGWg0B1EdnaFoSqr0CP6dvC38XB1OTfPqd9Vr1WDOQWBXNxKQ0SHEN4rvaw9DAfpUTEBT_Napq3HWw74OP-pM2mTl4PtdZBQ=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, December 8, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,701.21 +14.46 (+0.31%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,754.75 +35.32 (+0.10%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,786.99 +100.07 (+0.64%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,271.71 +17.92 (+0.80%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 2254.31, up 4 points, and dropped to its lo, off 12, at 11:00. It reached its hi, up 18 after 3:50 and slid into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35716.35, off 3 points. It hovered at or near the lo, off 117, from 11:00 to almost 2:30 It his the hi, up 86 points after 3:30, then slipped about 50 points into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15690.60 and quickly fell to the lo, off 68. It reached the hi, up 106, after 3:50, and slid 6 points into the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2254.31, up a fraction, and quickly fell to its lo, off 6 points. It reached the hi, up 23, before noon. It stayed above 2209 the rest of the day. It also drooped a bit at the end.</div><div><br /></div><div>After two strong days, this session, though positive, struggled a bit, and was not exciting. Is this week's recovery running out of steam? My guess is no. But we'll have to see how things develop.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmc9Wux47t9gUrKPLRUw1YHmMnP_OBTh_JHZNLbUYyTHG0FdQsKYYZiXwzhd4CoIyPtPG_D8ANmvN1OPNPw9sIPtiz1c4SFfbqmN17sy8jObcMB_Y_xu5jXgNGpM_2qByPYuhLnOwR3gjgJSropMiroiDKMtEZSdOna9Oq-VPzwIP_HJ3jvHnxxxn_SQ=s1608" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1608" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgmc9Wux47t9gUrKPLRUw1YHmMnP_OBTh_JHZNLbUYyTHG0FdQsKYYZiXwzhd4CoIyPtPG_D8ANmvN1OPNPw9sIPtiz1c4SFfbqmN17sy8jObcMB_Y_xu5jXgNGpM_2qByPYuhLnOwR3gjgJSropMiroiDKMtEZSdOna9Oq-VPzwIP_HJ3jvHnxxxn_SQ=w400-h216" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b>Thursday, December 9, 2021 </b></div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,667.45 -33.76 (-0.72%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">35,754.69 -0.06 (-0.00%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,517.37 -269.62 (-1.71%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,220.21 -51.50 (-2.27%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4691, off 10 points, and immediately rose to the hi, off 6 points. It slid pretty steadily the rest of the day to close within 2 points of the lo.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35722, off 32 points. And immediately dropped to 35578, the lo. From there it rose to the hi, 35864, up 109. It then tumbled into the close to end flat.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15721, and within a few minutes rose to 15976, the hi. It then fell pretty steadily for the rest of the session, ending 6 points above the late day close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2270, the day's hi. It also slid the rest of the day, ending within a small fraction of the lo, for the day's largest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>Only the DJI spent a significant amount of time above water, but it could not hold that modest gain. This was a pretty strongly negative day, overall. I'm not giving up the notion that the current short term trend is up, though. Nothing travels in a straight line. This could easily be counter current. We'll see. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div><div><b><u>Friday, December 10, 2021 </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,712.02 +44.57 (+0.95%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,970.99 +216.30 (+0.60%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,630.60 +113.23 (+0.73%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,211.81. -8.40 (-0.38%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4688, up 20 points, and slipped to 4670, the lo, up 3, after 11:00. It climbed the rest of the session, in three steps, to end within 2 points of the late day hi for the day's largest gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35830, up 76. It dropped to 35710, its lo, after 11:00. It also climbed the rest of the session, ending 11 points under the late day hi. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15630, up 112 points. It hit its lo, 15478, off 40, after 11:00. It ran flatish near 15560 until 2:30, when it rose into the close to finish within a point of where it started. A round trip to nowhere.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2221, up less than 2 points. It also his its lo, 2200, off 20, after 11:00. But it never regained positive territory, running close to 2210 until 3:30, when it rose slightly into the close for a modest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>For the three gainers, this is either the up trend reasserting itself, or a more complex counter-current wave still unfolding. The latter seems to be the case with the Russell.</div><div><br /></div><div>The gains this week were spectacular. But none of the indexes are at new highs, and the RUT is lagging badly.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 + 3.82%</div><div>DJI30 + 4.02%</div><div>NASDAQ + 3.61%</div><div>Russell + 2.43%</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9SD9LG39rdQAVDrtxFr-XEa4Smx17xZNRh-Gm3baZhKfiIo3AUjd-MH9cQRjLDgbvZCNNxhkWHD2-koZZiWSyjjT8gUrW8XbCwTCXbxmrKPgsLqknBQOSLrp2QXis-sd1GCxAYw8_7PKuEgNXyv86W1AvO0oaH3XoreTRVb5Tl99tLP54AvjnIc8_Aw=s1622" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="1622" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9SD9LG39rdQAVDrtxFr-XEa4Smx17xZNRh-Gm3baZhKfiIo3AUjd-MH9cQRjLDgbvZCNNxhkWHD2-koZZiWSyjjT8gUrW8XbCwTCXbxmrKPgsLqknBQOSLrp2QXis-sd1GCxAYw8_7PKuEgNXyv86W1AvO0oaH3XoreTRVb5Tl99tLP54AvjnIc8_Aw=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-39358181549428360872021-11-30T20:22:00.000-05:002021-11-30T20:22:02.403-05:00Taking Stock - Week of November 29, 2021<p> <span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, November 29, 2021</u></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- </span><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family: georgia; white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,655.27 +60.65 (+1.32%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,135.94 +236.60 (+0.68%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,782.83+291.18 (+1.88%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,241.98. -3.96 (-0.18%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened up 34 points, had a slight mid-morning slump, and hit the hi, up 78 after 1:00, From there it slid into the close, for a substantial gain.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI 30 opened up 118 points, gave it all back before 11:00, It rose to the day's hi, up 389 after 1:00, then slid into the close for a reasonable gain. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened up 228 points, and slid back a little until after 10:30. It reached the hi, up 341 after 1:00, then slid into the close for the day's largest gain.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened positive, but slumped into the red mid-morning and again at the end of the day. It finished with a small loss.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This was a nice recovery for all except the Russell – and most especially for the NASDAQ. Who knows where we go from here?</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0RWoP1Du7JY7f5vdBuoiTy6YrzF6W3xi_pTS6H_dl86c7QW3QxaTlywkgA7TiRZ-W5yJKTdDSWnrFR7NFduJ3Sdc1NkRERa2wF5OZzXrAnu-SHXzBTD9b8B6F9pgGVJqXo0rHUi-9dBPA/s1630/Screen+Shot+2021-11-29+at+4.43.00+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1630" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0RWoP1Du7JY7f5vdBuoiTy6YrzF6W3xi_pTS6H_dl86c7QW3QxaTlywkgA7TiRZ-W5yJKTdDSWnrFR7NFduJ3Sdc1NkRERa2wF5OZzXrAnu-SHXzBTD9b8B6F9pgGVJqXo0rHUi-9dBPA/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-11-29+at+4.43.00+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><b><u>Tuesday, November 29, 2021</u></b></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><span style="color: red;">4,567.00. -88.27 (-1.90%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,483.72. -652.22 (-1.86%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,537.69. -245.14 (-1.55%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,198.91. -43.07 (-1.92%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened off 15 points, and fell until about mid-day. After that, it was mostly sideways, ending with a substantial loss. It is right at its 55 day EM\A.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI30 opened off 79 points, and followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss. Itis now under its 144 day EMA.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened off 66 points, and also followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss, though a bit less than the other indexes.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened off 5 pints, and also followed a similar path, ending with a substantial loss. It's 52 points under its 144 day EMA.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim6pevGQCPolYKIuai_UrS0g-V2zeLnCmjSMnoYGuq_2iADFdM6OSeF-a_MbkGts_-O9THecWLRYUSDvhWMLpyU6fl9SWv_6GFVcSDux-Jr5XoPvfNOFo2jfjjpXl4nP1mZTe1zucH7oQU/s1612/Screen+Shot+2021-11-30+at+7.54.36+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1612" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEim6pevGQCPolYKIuai_UrS0g-V2zeLnCmjSMnoYGuq_2iADFdM6OSeF-a_MbkGts_-O9THecWLRYUSDvhWMLpyU6fl9SWv_6GFVcSDux-Jr5XoPvfNOFo2jfjjpXl4nP1mZTe1zucH7oQU/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-11-30+at+7.54.36+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-79174500312851415762021-11-23T13:32:00.001-05:002021-11-28T16:36:39.127-05:00Taking Stock -- Week of November 22, 2021<div><span style="color: #741b47; font-family: georgia;"><b><i>This will be an abbreviated week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.</i></b></span></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></div>Monday, November 22, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down </span></b><br /><br />SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,682.94 -15.02 (-0.32%)</span></b><br /><br />DJI30 ---<b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 35,619.25 +17.27 (+0.05%)</span></b></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br />NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,854.76 -202.68 (-1.26%)</span></b><br /><br />Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,331.35 -11.81 (-0.50%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4712, up 9 points. It reached 4745, up 40, at 10:30, then fell, hitting 4700, off 3 points, at noon. It rose a bit until after 3:00, then fell hard in the last 45 minutes, to end within a fraction of the last minute lo for a moderate loss. This was an outside day with the hi higher by 33 points and the lo lower by 15. For now the 13 day EMA seems to be providing support.<br /><br />This index hit a new all time hi on Friday, and I didn't notice – it was by less than 2 points over the 11/08 hi, and there was no intra-day hi. Today there was a new intra-day hi, but not a closing hi <br /><br />The DJI 30 opened at 35631, up 29, and reached 35916, an intermediate hi, before noon. It then meandered around 35620 until 2:30, when it rose to the day's hi of 35930, up 328, after 3:00. It fell hard in the last 45 minutes, giving up 310 points to finish with a minuscule gain. That was enough to preserve a clearly up day by 51 and 60 points. The index stayed above its 55 day EMA.<br /><br />The NASDAQ opened at 16121, up 63 points, and reached its hi, 16212, before 10:30. It then fell in two downward swoops, ending first at noon, then moments before the close. This was an outside day by the large margins of 91 points at the top and 166 at the bottom. This resulted in a new intra-day hi, but a large loss at the close. The 13 day EMA might be support, for now.<br /><br />The Russell 2000 opened at 2343, up a half point, and reached 2370, the hi, up 26, after 1:30. It also fell in two hard steps down, to end at the day's lo for a substantial loss. This is an outside day by 7 points at the top and 10 at the bottom. The index is above its 55 day EMA, but has recoiled badly from its 11/08 all time hi.<br /><br />This would have been a decent day until everything went to hell in the last 45 minutes.<br /><br /><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -<br />11/22/19 - 3110<br />11/20/20 - 3558<br />10/22/21 - 4545<br />11/22/21 - 4683<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – <br /><div>A/D = 1541/1842 = 0.84</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.25</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 135/129 = 1/05</div><div><br /></div><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjfMys4B7v5JLrxQG1WQnGbC2GL43xv-Hw5ypr-XSiLPuGKlDWLyqadME8vPQuKCVIa60blrlV6xEUwzkX30gFV2Z-hmlY9ITRGrkWttDsjj9zXCTRMCbwFt9MYkV8CZ1Kq8yWgO5DfQO2/s1618/Screen+Shot+2021-11-22+at+7.05.01+PM.png"><span style="font-family: georgia;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjfMys4B7v5JLrxQG1WQnGbC2GL43xv-Hw5ypr-XSiLPuGKlDWLyqadME8vPQuKCVIa60blrlV6xEUwzkX30gFV2Z-hmlY9ITRGrkWttDsjj9zXCTRMCbwFt9MYkV8CZ1Kq8yWgO5DfQO2/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-11-22+at+7.05.01+PM.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Friday, November 27, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><span style="color: red;"><b>4,594.62-106.84 (-2.27%)</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,899.34-905.04 (-2.53%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,491.66-353.57 (-2.23%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,245.94-85.52 (-3.67%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>This was a rough session. Every index fell hard at the opening, then ran more or less sideways until the early close at 1:30. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly Changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 -2.31%</div><div>DJI 30 -1.97</div><div>NASDAQ -3.52%</div><div>Russell 2000 -4.15%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/26/19 - 3141</div><div>11/25/20 - 3630</div><div>10/22/21 - 4575</div><div>11/26/21 - 4595</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 469/2657 = 0.18</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.10</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 20/202 = 0.10</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKhnpbLiuM_QKJX5SW0-nw3t1hFrcw3I5FeBD7HFzpE7A1xtOslcFJYDaWrQ7X0QwpvgK6F0xBn4kR7h6h4Cl8XWZ-ZlGRnTFkLL25v67ZUCvkkD8s5MZW3mSn0EtkEBN5gLaTlp7yYyTE/s1618/Screen+Shot+2021-11-28+at+4.28.18+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="1618" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKhnpbLiuM_QKJX5SW0-nw3t1hFrcw3I5FeBD7HFzpE7A1xtOslcFJYDaWrQ7X0QwpvgK6F0xBn4kR7h6h4Cl8XWZ-ZlGRnTFkLL25v67ZUCvkkD8s5MZW3mSn0EtkEBN5gLaTlp7yYyTE/w400-h228/Screen+Shot+2021-11-28+at+4.28.18+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></span><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-35328313552438964242021-11-15T18:45:00.006-05:002021-11-21T21:01:05.828-05:00Taking Stock - Week of November 15, 2021<b><u>Monday, November 15, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b><br /><br /><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,682.80 -0.05 (-0.00%)</span></b><br /><br />DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">36,087.45 -12.86 (-0.04%)</span></b><br /><br /><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,853.85 -7.11 (-0.04%)</span></b><br /><br />Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,400.93 -10.84 (-0.45%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4689, up 6 points, and hit 4697, the hi, up 15, a few minutes later. It dropped to 4673, the low at 11:45. It snaked around 4680 – the neutral point, the rest of the day to end flat. The hi was up by 9 points, and the lo by 22, but the 0.05 point loss prevented a clearly up day.<br /><br />The DJI30 opened at 36129, up 29 points. It hit 36236, the hi, up 136, before 11:00, then slumped the rest of the day, hitting the lo, 36032, off 69, at 3:45. The hi and lo were up by 88 and 97 points, respectively; but the 13 point loss prevented a clearly up day.<br /><br />The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 41 points, and rose to 15918, up 57. It fell to 15778, the lo, before 12:30. From there it was an irregular rise into the close. The hi and lo were higher by 44 and 73 points. Again a tiny closing loss prevented a clearly up day.<br /><br />The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2412 and immediately rose to 2021, the hi, up 9. It rose to 2400 before 1:30, then went mostly sideways into the close, for the day's only notable loss. It had an outside day by 4 points at the top and 13 at the bottom.<br /><br />This still looks like a developing 4th wave, and will continue to do so until the SP500 convincingly tops the 11/05 hi at 4718. Elliot Wave analyst Avi Gilbert defines 4550 as a critical support level. I've raised the red support line to that level on the chart. This is pretty close to 4566 which I mentioned last week as a possible retracement minimum, and to 4546, the 9/02 local hi. If it dips lower, we'll have to reconsider.<br /><br /><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -<br />11/15/19 - 3120<br />11/13/20 - 3585<br />10/15/21 - 4471<br />11/15/21 - 4683<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – <br />A/D = 1531/1817 = 0.84<br />A/D Vol = 1.13<br />New Hi/Lo = 165/44 = 3.75 </div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjstCWXzr4gFJm46EB-kT2o-8WhuyPuqJJKFno7I_e4dnXKLYUHCvNopfiCetM8bfan8awfKQdZ-Bgos1smfOeT6gux1nrKJwaISzLC73ne0miAJvKW7ytU-LJyI3bYxshx3cTRU2eIwhti/s1610/Screen+Shot+2021-11-15+at+6.34.43+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="860" data-original-width="1610" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjstCWXzr4gFJm46EB-kT2o-8WhuyPuqJJKFno7I_e4dnXKLYUHCvNopfiCetM8bfan8awfKQdZ-Bgos1smfOeT6gux1nrKJwaISzLC73ne0miAJvKW7ytU-LJyI3bYxshx3cTRU2eIwhti/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-11-15+at+6.34.43+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, November 16, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,700.90 +18.10 (+0.39%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,142.22 +54.77 (+0.15%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,973.86 +120.01 (+0.76%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,405.02 +4.09 (+0.17%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4679, the day's lo, off 3 points. It climbed pretty steadily to 4715, the hi, after 2:00, then slumped into the close for a modest gain. This is a clearly up day by 18 and 7 points. At the hi, it was less than 4 points below the 11/05 all time intra-day hi, and at the close only a point under the 11/08 all time hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 followed a similar, but not identical path. It opened at 36076, off 11 points. It reached 36317, up 229, at 12:45, then slid the rest of the day, falling especially hard in the last half hour, to close with a small gain. This was a clearly up day by 81 and 44 points, but the afternoon was all downhill. It remains below the 11/08 all time highs by 249 pints intra-day and 290 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15840, off 14 points, and climbed steadily, reaching 15975 after 1:00. From there it want mostly sideways, hitting 15990, the hi at 3:45, for the day's strongest performance. This is a clearly up day by 71 and 47 points. It is below the 11/05 intra-day hi by 64 points and the 11/08 closing hi by 9.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at at 2400, off a fraction, and quickly dropped to 2387, off 14 points. It then climbed, reaching positive territory at noon. It reached 2408, the hi, after 2:30, and slid into the close. Contra the 4 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 13 and 6 points, respectively. It remains under the 8/05 highs by 51 points intra-day and 38 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's possible that wave 4 is still unfolding,with more downside action to follow, and we can't ignore that possibility. But now it seems more likely to me that the early sub-waves of wave five up might have started. If this is correct, we should be seeing new highs in the next few days, with further advances to follow soon after. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/15/19 - 3120</div><div>11/16/20 - 3627</div><div>10/15/21 - 4471</div><div>11/16/21 - 4701</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1500/1810 = 0.83</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.65</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 172/56 = 3.07</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgokzDy4CTxZXqYqbJYQYdsYlDmNSmoTxixbtKKqKGPRFG5aqsKbPkhv5qERvIS5Ha1lWn72YO5XK359n9ETpbj-HlrVtdsiMTDwZPIqNfWE_kkbWSKedpEfjU6fWwoz24IfNgAMJ9sKjEE/s1624/Screen+Shot+2021-11-16+at+9.15.06+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1624" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgokzDy4CTxZXqYqbJYQYdsYlDmNSmoTxixbtKKqKGPRFG5aqsKbPkhv5qERvIS5Ha1lWn72YO5XK359n9ETpbj-HlrVtdsiMTDwZPIqNfWE_kkbWSKedpEfjU6fWwoz24IfNgAMJ9sKjEE/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-11-16+at+9.15.06+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, November 16, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,688.67 -12.23 (-0.26%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,931.05 -211.17 (-0.58%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,921.57 -52.28 (-0.33%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,377.01 -28.02 (-1.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened up a point at 4702, the day's hi. It zig-zagged all day, hitting 4684, the lo, before 10:00. It touched the hi again at noon, and came close to the lo again a half hour later. It then galumphed into the close, ending on a down tic and a volume surge. This was an inside day by 13 points at the top and 5 at the bottom</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 36160, the day's hi, up 17 points. It dropped to 35940 at 12:30 then moved sideways the rest of the day, hitting 35909, the lo, at 2:30. It also dropped in the waning minutes on a volume surge. This was a clearly down day by 157 and a67 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened flat at 15974 and reached 15999, the hi, up 16, at noon. It dropped to 15909, the lo, an hour later. From there it rumbled along into the close. Contra the loss, the hi and lo were higher by 9 and 84 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2404 off less than a point. It fell to 2369, the lo, at 12:30, From there it was a jagged climb to the close for the day's biggest loss. It was a clearly down day by 4 and 17 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>All this cast doubt on my suggestion that wave 5 up is in progress. While that is still possible, it could also be that wave 4 is still unfolding. A third possibility is that the indexes have topped, and a wave down has begun. This is confusing. I hope the next few days provide some clarity.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/15/19 - 3120</div><div>11/16/20 - 3610</div><div>10/15/21 - 4471</div><div>11/16/21 - 4689</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1118/2227 = 0.50</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.41</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 106/82 = 1.29</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiCK7jspJi7R0kjuCzWhpv7Bdl6hcEgPhlh_YSZmAgTDBHMXEY6c41AgP9jLKQzPL3DtRR1xBeAWcQYX25R5bUNOOMLHk1R-wdDX0uHbt27-64jlicTl_J_dI13rgEIaGeznZ4plHSmIyK/s1630/Screen+Shot+2021-11-17+at+10.02.55+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1630" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiCK7jspJi7R0kjuCzWhpv7Bdl6hcEgPhlh_YSZmAgTDBHMXEY6c41AgP9jLKQzPL3DtRR1xBeAWcQYX25R5bUNOOMLHk1R-wdDX0uHbt27-64jlicTl_J_dI13rgEIaGeznZ4plHSmIyK/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-11-17+at+10.02.55+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday, November 18, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>YellowArrow Sideways</div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,704.54 +15.87 (+0.34%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- 35,870.95 <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">-60.10 (-0.17%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,993.71 +72.14 (+0.45%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <span style="color: red;"> <b>2,363.59 -13.42 (-0.56%)</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4701, up 12 points, and fell to 4673, the lo, off 16 before 10:30. From noon on it wound around 4700, ending on a small up-tick and a volume surge, for a modest gain. This was an outside day by 7 points at the top and 12 on the bottom. This is ambiguous, pointing nowhere. But it does not negate the bullish case.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35902, off 29, and dropped to 35654, the lo, before 10:30. It then wound around 35875 from noon on, ending with a small loss. This was a clearly down day by 207 and 255 points. I can't get a convincing wave count on this chart, so I won't comment on the retracement level. The recent day's motion is clearly down, but the bullish case is not yet refuted.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15973, up 52 points, and dropped to 15849, the lo, off 72 points, before 10:30. It wound around 15975 from noon on, ending on a small down tic and a volume surge. it had an outside day by 12 points at the top and 61 at the bottom</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2378, up a fraction, and reached 2386, the hi, up 9, a few minutes later. It dropped to 2349, the lo, off 28, at 10:30. It wound around 2360 the rest of the day, then closed on a slight rise for the days largest loss. It had a clearly down day by 18 and 21 points. If I have identifieded the limits correctly, today's lo is a 53% retracement. It looks bad on today's graph, but is not far off of a typical 50%, and still has some room to fall without reaching 63%, the expected maximum loss So the bullish case still has not been refuted. But tother possibilities deserve consideration.</div><div><br /></div><div>Two outside sessions with gains along with two clearly down sessions only muddy the water. The ambiguity is frustrating, but the market is going to do what the market is going to do. Maybe we'll have better luck tomorrow.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/15/19 - 3120</div><div>11/16/20 - 3610</div><div>10/15/21 - 4471</div><div>11/16/21 - 4689</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1169/2197 = 0.53</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.41</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 118/108 = 1.09</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9tiU0-XUE9u3j2RJJiNLDYNAqEwlAkFMP0ukTB4lb5-quNVKcVO9_P20o4qQgmEztmOt4AdEpZ29HHwOtB3IOhfUvp6qHbHXjBdV4RjxrsqkWEYoMx-PbvVb1VokEP4Ml38IeYmUyLf3/s1626/Screen+Shot+2021-11-18+at+4.53.59+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="920" data-original-width="1626" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb9tiU0-XUE9u3j2RJJiNLDYNAqEwlAkFMP0ukTB4lb5-quNVKcVO9_P20o4qQgmEztmOt4AdEpZ29HHwOtB3IOhfUvp6qHbHXjBdV4RjxrsqkWEYoMx-PbvVb1VokEP4Ml38IeYmUyLf3/w400-h226/Screen+Shot+2021-11-18+at+4.53.59+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, November 19, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,697.96 -6.58 (-0.14%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,601.98 -268.97 (-0.75%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">16,057.44 +63.73 (+0.40%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 2,343.16 -20.43 (-0.86%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4708, up 4 points and made a jagged climb to 4711, the hi, after 12:30. It then dropped quickly to 4697, the lo, an hour later. It recovered to 4707 before 2:30, then fell again, almost to the lo, a few minutes before closing with a small loss. However, the hi and lo were up by 2 and 24 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35879, up 8 points, and immediately started falling, It reached 35610, off 261, after 10:00, then went mostly sideways, It reached 35555, the lo, after 1:30, then rolled into the close, for a substantial loss. This was a clearly down day by 74 and 99 points..</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 16042, up 48 points, and rose to 16121, up 127, after11:00. It then dropped to 16017, the lo, after 1:30. After a rise to 16085 before 2:30, it slumped into the close for a substantial gain. This was a clearly up day by 110 and 164 points. It achieved a new all time hi on Thursday, and exceeded that by 64 on Friday.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2362, the hi, off 1 point. It quickly dropped to 2345, then stayed above that level until after 3:30, when it dropped into the close, just a point and a half above and a few moments after the day's lo, 2342. This was a substantial loss and a clearly down day by 24 and 7 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>There was no pattern to this session. On balance, it was negative. Next week's trading will be abbreviated by the holiday, so I have no expectations.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 +0.44%</div><div>DJI30 -1.38%</div><div>NASDAQ +1.24%</div><div>Russell 2000 -2.85%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings </u></b>-</div><div>11/19/19 - 3120</div><div>11/19/20 - 3582</div><div>10/19/21 - 4520</div><div>11/19/21 - 4703</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1164/2184 = 0.53</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.35</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 93/112 = 0.83</div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_d65AITyM5AmVjy2Ey7QWyUKDaHGDMJPs-gr7rcHtvWa2egC3ySXPuI80Q1lOBcl6FYqwUTDDYh1uDQGwZROOdWJ8U3JdUHa3c3SmH0aBh1bpBQCKDDFspZ2efk_1Lw84x5e2Ui8cVjzN/s1608/Screen+Shot+2021-11-21+at+5.24.04+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="1608" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_d65AITyM5AmVjy2Ey7QWyUKDaHGDMJPs-gr7rcHtvWa2egC3ySXPuI80Q1lOBcl6FYqwUTDDYh1uDQGwZROOdWJ8U3JdUHa3c3SmH0aBh1bpBQCKDDFspZ2efk_1Lw84x5e2Ui8cVjzN/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-11-21+at+5.24.04+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-7790829805499083732021-11-08T21:13:00.007-05:002021-11-12T21:25:35.236-05:00Taking Stock -- Week of November 8, 2021<u>Monday, November 8, 2021</u><br /><br /><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b><br /><br />SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,701.70 +4.17 (+0.09%)</span></b><br /><br />DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,432.22 +104.27 (+0.29%)</span></b><br /><br />NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,982.36 +10.77 (+0.07%)</span></b><div><br />Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,442.74+5.66 (+0.23%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4701, up 4 points. It reached 4715, up 17, the hi a few minutes later, then had a choppy drop to 4694, off 3 points,the lo, at noon. It rose to 4706 at 2:25, the went mostly sideways into the close for a small gain. It had an inside day by 4 and 13 points. It missed an intra-day hi by 4 points, but reached a new closing hi by 4.<br /><br />The DJI 30 opened at 36416, up 87 points. It followed a similar path but at its 1:00 low, 36334, it was up 6 points. It rose to 35415 at 2:30, and then went mostly sideways to the close for a modest gain that was the day's largest. It had a clearly up day by 81 and 144 points, and achieved new highs by 81 intra-day and 104 at the close.<br /><br />The NASDAQ opened at 15996, up 24 points. It had a much choppier day, hitting its hi, 16038, up 67, a few minutes later, and its lo, 15962, off 10, just 10 minutes before the close for a small gain. It had an inside day by 15 points at the top and 61 at the bottom. Ot missed an intra-day hi by 15, but made a new closing hi by 11.<br /><br />The Russell 2000 opened at 2438, up just 22 points. I reached its hi, 2459, before 10:00, then went sideways until noon. It slumped to 3438, the lo, up just over a point at 2:30. From there it went mostly sideways into the close for a small gain. It had a clearly up day by 10 and 35 points, and achieved new intra-day and closing highs by 10 and 6 points.<br /><br />Today's gains are not large, but each index achieved a new closing hi, and the lows were all higher than yesterday's. This seems like a positive continuation.<br /><br /><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -<br />11/08/19 - 3093<br />11/06/20 - 3509<br />10/08/21 - 4391<br />11/08/21 - 4697<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – <br />A/D = 1839/1498 = 1.23<br />A/D Vol = 1.44<br />New Hi/Lo = 265/15 = 17.67<br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYW-_uZgFJtotuKHUnqURJNgESQ7-GFvIhrYXPW8_pAFRGhh_xVrv8klah4et-0U4iY4dcAA-DvOxMSHNr36x82BDr1Xf-_hXc369IEme1kbb5iqDnp8o4r7F_FWutMHci7kpXoJfQa8az/s1614/Screen+Shot+2021-11-08+at+8.57.24+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1614" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYW-_uZgFJtotuKHUnqURJNgESQ7-GFvIhrYXPW8_pAFRGhh_xVrv8klah4et-0U4iY4dcAA-DvOxMSHNr36x82BDr1Xf-_hXc369IEme1kbb5iqDnp8o4r7F_FWutMHci7kpXoJfQa8az/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-11-08+at+8.57.24+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, November 9, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,685.25 -16.45 (-0.35%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,319.98 -112.24 (-0.31%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,886.54 -95.81 (-0.60%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,425.18- 17.56 (-0.72%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4707, up 6, and reached the day's hi, a point higher a few minutes later. It dropped to 4675 after 10:00, then moved mostly sideways, hitting 4671, the day's lo, off 31, after noon. From 2:00 on it had a slight rise into the close for a modest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 36405, off 28 points, and chopped down to its lo, 36173, off 259, after noon. Before 2:30 It started climbing, and finished with the day's smallest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 16024, up 41, and within moments hit 16035, the hi, up 53. It fell to the lo, 15843, off 140, after 10:00, then went mostly sideways the rest of the session.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2442.22, off a fraction, and immediately fell, hitting 2414, off 28 after 10:00. </div><div>it rose to 2430 at 10:30, then went mostly sideways, all the way to the close, for the day's largest loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>Today's pull back is probably counter-current sub-wave 4 of a 5 wave upward impulse, and could take a few days to play out. I don't expect The SP500 to go below 4566. However, a deep retracement to 4414 is possible. If it goes below that, I'm reading the waves incorrectly.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/08/19 - 3093</div><div>11/09/20 - 3551</div><div>10/08/21 - 4391</div><div>11/08921 - 4681</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1566/1746 = 0.90</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.76</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 169/29 = 5.83</div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxIDGdSvfbrtcq_GdRNV_afav8CooObn0iVjmvPzTGxIPd2sORElkfka8V16P8TxplhIBRha2TKaR4av9wf9CoEevB4oiDUsjlhSgf6j9L9Ik4txtBGxsmU4VLwv2BCDYtTqac85H4nuQl/s1594/Screen+Shot+2021-11-09+at+7.34.13+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="868" data-original-width="1594" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxIDGdSvfbrtcq_GdRNV_afav8CooObn0iVjmvPzTGxIPd2sORElkfka8V16P8TxplhIBRha2TKaR4av9wf9CoEevB4oiDUsjlhSgf6j9L9Ik4txtBGxsmU4VLwv2BCDYtTqac85H4nuQl/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-11-09+at+7.34.13+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div>Wednesday, November 9, 2021</div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,646.71. -38.54 (-0.82%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">36,079.94 -240.04 (-0.66%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,622.71. -263.84 (-1.66%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,389.58 -37.71 (-1.55%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>No time - nor much need - for the details today. The indexes all started near neutral, slumped until about 2:45, then rose slightly into their respective closes for varying degree of loss. If I'm reading it right, this is a 4th wave counter-current move, and will last a few days before the indexes go on to new highs in wave 5.</div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 Closings -</div><div>11/08/19 - 3093</div><div>11/09/20 - 3546</div><div>10/08/21 - 4391</div><div>11/08921 - 4647</div><div><br /></div><div>NYSE Internals – </div><div>A/D = 1068/2229 = 0.48</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.63</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 143/38 = 3,76</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsi7SHlDOxvWCi4HsmgbbgyB5VzXVq8wEC6V1XDZUzxcqITg0JYWuP-0Gzz1NkD_UTkwRcoJsI7x6SGPmbDCIbfc2awWMzZzVZ8J3RRy3iCeHuOwUSCz9EZccHveV2w5NRJFIrcKnv8Ej6/s1606/Screen+Shot+2021-11-10+at+10.48.47+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1606" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsi7SHlDOxvWCi4HsmgbbgyB5VzXVq8wEC6V1XDZUzxcqITg0JYWuP-0Gzz1NkD_UTkwRcoJsI7x6SGPmbDCIbfc2awWMzZzVZ8J3RRy3iCeHuOwUSCz9EZccHveV2w5NRJFIrcKnv8Ej6/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-11-10+at+10.48.47+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><div><b><u>Thursday, November 11, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,649.27 +2.56 (+0.06%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,921.23 -158.71 (-0.44%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,704.28 +81.58 (+0.52%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,409.14 +19.56 (+0.82%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4659, up 13 points. It had a very choppy session, reaching the hi, 4665, up 18, after 11:30 and the lo, 3638, up 2, just before the close. After touching near the lo after noon and 1:00 it rose until after 2:30, then slumped into the close with a last minute volume surge, for a minuscule gain. It was an inside day by 20 points at the top and 2 ½ at the bottom. It looks like the index found support at the 13 day EMA, but nothing encouraging happened here.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 36039, off 41 points, quickly jumped up to 36108, up 28, then fell to 35930, off 150, a few moments later. It ran sideways until 1:00, then slowly slid into the close for a moderate loss. It slightly pierced the 13 day EMA level. It had a clearly down day by 238 points at the top and 94 at the bottom</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15751, up 129 points, and reached it hi, 15768, up 145 before 10:00. It went mostly sideways until after 2:30 when it fell hard to 15696, the lo, up 73, then limped into the close for a modest gain. This was an inside day by 99 points at the top and 152 at the bottom. There might have been support at the 13 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2391, up a fraction, the day's lo. It climbed to 2419, the hi, up 29 at 12:45, then slowly slumped the rest of the day, finishing with a robust gain. There was support just about at the 13 day EMA. It had an inside day by 10 points at either end.</div><div><br /></div><div>Each index moved in a different way, with mixed results. All but the Russell ended the day below its start. But even it fell in the afternoon. I see this as as sub-subwaves of sub wave 4 down unfolding. This could play out over a few more days, followed by wave 5 up to new highs. If I'm reading it right.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/11/19 - 3087</div><div>11/11/20 - 3573</div><div>10/11/21 - 4361</div><div>11/11/21 - 4649</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1887/1437 = 1.31</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.94</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 103/51 = 2.02</div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Eb-p0Cnnmv7k3i2Ep7mIBPz-4fb8FK5ZL2D0GyQe26i5nO6xZ9pLVmdJa5xsOiaZpbnzqhKDcNZ7HTRqYxugzNdU3RmmuRN1M-2VdHpNQaAucm7FJSPerP09zRF1rZA-cM7_-LQzWkgA/s1622/Screen+Shot+2021-11-11+at+7.33.57+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="908" data-original-width="1622" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8Eb-p0Cnnmv7k3i2Ep7mIBPz-4fb8FK5ZL2D0GyQe26i5nO6xZ9pLVmdJa5xsOiaZpbnzqhKDcNZ7HTRqYxugzNdU3RmmuRN1M-2VdHpNQaAucm7FJSPerP09zRF1rZA-cM7_-LQzWkgA/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-11-11+at+7.33.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">Greenish Arrow Upish</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">4,682.85 +33.58 (+0.72%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">36,100.31 +179.08 (+0.50%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">15,860.96 +156.68 (+1.00%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,411.78 +2.63 (+0.11%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4655, up 6 points, and hit 4651, the lo, off 1.5 point a few minutes later. From noon on it went sideways near 4675, hitting 4688, the hi after 3:30. This was a clearly up day by 24 points at the top and 2 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 opened at 35964, up 43 points, and dropped to 35935, the lo, up 13 after 10:00. It ran mostly sideways around 36075 until after 3:30 when it rose to 36148, the hi, then slid into the close. This was a clearly up day by 39 and 19 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15753, off 108, and dropped to 15725, the lo, before 10:00. It ran mostly sideways around 15840 until after 3:30, when it rose to 15875 after 3:30, then slid into the close. This was a clearly up day by 107 points at the top and 10 at the bottom. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2409, up a fraction, rose to 2417, up 5, the hi at 9:45. It wandered close to neutral until 3:00, rose near the hi after 3:30, then slumped into the close. This was an inside day by 2 points at the top and 15 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes seem to have found at least temporary resistance at their respective 13 day EMAs. There were some solid gains, but unless and until the indexes exceed Monday's highs, my position is that they are all in counter-current 4th waves. The shape of the recent curve in the DJI chart below is typical of the other indexes.</div><div> </div><div><b><u>Weekly Changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 - 0.31%</div><div>DJI 30 - 0.63%</div><div>NASDAQ -0.60%</div><div>Russel 2000 -1.04%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/12/19 - 3092</div><div>11/12/20 - 3537</div><div>10/12/21 - 4351</div><div>11/12/21 - 4683</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1817/1539 = 1.18</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.12</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 143/41 = 3.49</div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Hi6e27nfTLl-jB9IdnOiUqFLnKSZQdn911nXvTcUYyjiLrRAdOFPTkktjPKoHkhf180diwEWkjpxp5Aczt4zAb6ck73_-SyKFroVWEtfsXlUrNAElQzJewXOCJh_3UN7NlM-mm_QwJcM/s1616/Screen+Shot+2021-11-12+at+8.56.19+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1616" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Hi6e27nfTLl-jB9IdnOiUqFLnKSZQdn911nXvTcUYyjiLrRAdOFPTkktjPKoHkhf180diwEWkjpxp5Aczt4zAb6ck73_-SyKFroVWEtfsXlUrNAElQzJewXOCJh_3UN7NlM-mm_QwJcM/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-11-12+at+8.56.19+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-71258322758032754242021-11-01T18:19:00.005-04:002021-11-05T19:50:36.713-04:00Taking Stock - Week off November 1, 2021<b><u>Monday, November 1, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b><br /><br />SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,613.67 +8.29 (+0.18%)</span></b><br /><br /><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,913.84+94.28 (+0.26%)</span></b><br /><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,595.92+97.53 (+0.63%)</span></b><br /><br />Russell 2000 ---<b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 2,358.12 +60.93 (+2.65%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4611, up 5 points, and quickly rose to 4620, up 15. It then fell, bottoming at 4596, off 10 and the day's lo. After that it recovered, reaching 4613 at 1:00, but fell to the lo again at 2:15. Then it rose again into the close, on an up-tick and a volume surge. This is a clearly up day by 12 and 27 points, and new all time highs by 12 points intra-day and 8 at the close.<br /><br />The DJI 30 opened at 35834, up 14, and slithered in the same way, but only touched red once at the 11:00 lo of 35798, off 22. It had a clearly up day by 157 and 165 points. It reached a new all time intra-day hi by 117 points and at the close by 94.<br /><br />The NASDAQ opened at 15541, up 43. It touched red briefly at 10:00, reached an intermediate hi after 1:00, then dropped to an intermediate lo at 2:15. From there it rose steadily to close at the day's hi. It had a clearly up by 95 and 145 points. It also had new all time highs by 52 points intra-day and 50 at the close.<br /><br />The Russell 2000 opened at 2298, up less than a point. It climbed pretty steadily all day, ending with an unusually large 2.65% gain. It was a clearly up day by 56 and 8 points. It achieved new local highs by 37 points intra-day and 45 at the close. Also the Index is now less than 2 points under the 3/15 all time highs.<br /><br />This was a very strong day. So there is no reason to think anything downside is coming soon. But I'm still a bit leery.<br /><br /><b>SP500 Closings</b> -<br />11/01/19 - 3067<br />10/30/20 - 3270<br />10/01/21 - 4357<br />11/01/21 – 4614<br /><br /><b>NYSE Internals</b> - <br />A/D = 2512/853 = 2.94<br />A/D Vol = 4.06<br />New Hi/Lo = 209/20 = 10.45<br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4vbDGSzdWDYb6BUO8cnzDhLzhV9NfRXex4IYTpB3aeEVuKqzSSsdVXsQj1Z-aJweY586pkqFF97CqHf3iyW9mAHnkgh3PifMvMXlrDAv5HGHfg1KtVmxZXFP1pWvz-oTC60Wa0uozhhuM/s1624/Screen+Shot+2021-11-01+at+4.37.18+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1624" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4vbDGSzdWDYb6BUO8cnzDhLzhV9NfRXex4IYTpB3aeEVuKqzSSsdVXsQj1Z-aJweY586pkqFF97CqHf3iyW9mAHnkgh3PifMvMXlrDAv5HGHfg1KtVmxZXFP1pWvz-oTC60Wa0uozhhuM/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-11-01+at+4.37.18+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, November 2, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,630.65 +16.98 (+0.37%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,052.63 +138.79 (+0.39%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,649.60 +53.69 (+0.34%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,361.86 +3.73 (+0.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 started flat then increased until it peaked at 11:45. It slumped for abut a half hour, then ran mostly sideways into the close. It had a clearly up day by 15 and 18 points. This resulted in more new all time highs: 15 points intra-day and 17 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI did about the same, with a brief excursion into negative territory before 10:00. It had a clearly up day by 79 and 86 points. It also achieved new all time highs: 79 points intra-day and 139 at the close. Remember that 1999 book “DOW 36000” That looked like a sad joke in 2001 and again in 2009? Well, 22 years later we finally got there, with 36009.74 at yesterday's hi, and 36052.63 at today's close. Yay, hooray! All it took was a whole lot of time.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ started slightly negative, but quickly went positive and went mostly sideways during the afternoon. This was the NASDAQ's 4th consecutive day with all time intra-day and closing highs, this time by 58 and 54 points. Of course it was a clearly up day, by those same margins.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started negative and meandered around neutral the rest of the day, finishing with a small gain. But this small gain in enough to reach all time new highs: by 3.38 points intra-day and 1.69 point at the close.</div><div> </div><div>These were not huge gains, and the NYSE internals were mediocre. I'm not a great wave reader, but it looks like this a third wave in progress, at some small level of trend. But I'd expect stronger internal – like yesterday's – if that were the case. We'll see how it plays out. </div><div><br /></div><div> <b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/01/19 - 3067</div><div>11/02/20 - 3310</div><div>10/01/21 - 4357</div><div>11/01/21 – 4631</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – Much weaker than yesterday</div><div>A/D = 1527/1831 = 0.84</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.68</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 194/33 = 5.88</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRkr1rZU-5TEFYQpCcUXpKOI3ZhXPyIS5zVOYcrlHGQo7IiHkrdfqSrP0RNhiQci6MPWonaTna1ofmVGfIu0KWRFLGYno9Q7y48Ty1oJeqnqJiASdxc12QAWRkXBMSlezA8cP2f4p_EDZ/s1616/Screen+Shot+2021-11-02+at+8.42.40+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="918" data-original-width="1616" height="229" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRkr1rZU-5TEFYQpCcUXpKOI3ZhXPyIS5zVOYcrlHGQo7IiHkrdfqSrP0RNhiQci6MPWonaTna1ofmVGfIu0KWRFLGYno9Q7y48Ty1oJeqnqJiASdxc12QAWRkXBMSlezA8cP2f4p_EDZ/w400-h229/Screen+Shot+2021-11-02+at+8.42.40+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, November 2, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,660.57 +29.92 (+0.65%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,157.58 +104.95 (+0.29%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,811.58 +161.98 (+1.04%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,404.17 +42.32 (+1.79%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 started dead even, then ran less than 10 points negative until 2:00 when it started to rise, leading again to a clearly up day and to new all time highs by 20 points intra-day and 23 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI started slightly positive, immediately dropped into the red, and slumped to a lo at 2:00 when it suddenly started climbing. It also had a clearly up day and new all time highs by 90 points intra-say and 105 at the close</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ started slightly positive then quickly dropped slightly red. It ran just below the neutral line until 2:00, when it started to rise, reaching new all time highs by the stunning margins of 165 intra-day and 162 at the close. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started flat and rose until 11:00. It slid a bit until 2:00 when it also started climbing. It also reached new highs by 53 points intra-day and 89 at the close</div><div><br /></div><div>Today, the Fed announced that it will start tapering at some unspecified date, but not increase interest rates any time soon, since inflation is still viewed as transitory. It seems that speculators were biding their time until the Fed announcement, which evidently was taken as good news. So – the bull proceeds unabated.</div><div><br /></div><div>For now.</div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 Closings -</div><div>11/01/19 - 3067</div><div>11/02/20 - 3369</div><div>10/01/21 - 4357</div><div>11/01/21 - 4653</div><div><br /></div><div>NYSE Internals – Much weaker than yesterday</div><div>A/D = 2225/1107 = 2.01</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.21</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 253/21 = 12.05</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw7pQDRtC9vMXZpDEZodfSTOzoqJedkdXI9X-538s0kbC6joNPwXo0IubymCXsDqCXJthgMwoZVQCpSI7gaoYqfJXsE6wKmEZuHnKj23D1t4_o5zqrjpIfVY3ZNIf_n8OLyeGJuhvAmTSu/s1634/Screen+Shot+2021-11-03+at+10.50.33+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1634" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw7pQDRtC9vMXZpDEZodfSTOzoqJedkdXI9X-538s0kbC6joNPwXo0IubymCXsDqCXJthgMwoZVQCpSI7gaoYqfJXsE6wKmEZuHnKj23D1t4_o5zqrjpIfVY3ZNIf_n8OLyeGJuhvAmTSu/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-11-03+at+10.50.33+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Thursday, November 2, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,680.06 +19.49 (+0.42%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">36,124.23 -33.35 (-0.09%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,940.31 +128.72 (+0.81%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,402.43. -1.85 (-0.08%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 started at 4663, 9 points positive then was above that the whole day. It hit the day's hi, 4683, twice around 10:30. It spent most of the day twisting around 4670, and rose into the close after 3:30. This was a clearly up day by 28 and 41 points, with new all time highs by 28 points intra-day and 27 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 26107, off 50, and spent the entire day in the red. It slipped, rose the fell again hitting 35986, the lo, after 2:30. Then it rose sharply, but ended slightly short of a gain. This was an inside day by 11 points at the top and 95 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15850, up 38 points, and never saw red. With some wiggles, it went mostly sideways the rest of the day. This was a clearly up day by 145 and 211 points, and resulted in new highs by 145 intra-day and 129 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>After the recent dramatic rises, the Russell 2000 was ho-hum today. It started at 2405, off 3 points, then rose to 2424, the hi, up 16 at 10:15. It dropped until 11:30, then spent the rest of the day moving sideways, slightly below neutral, to end with a minute loss. This was a mixed day, with the hi higher by 10 points, and the lo higher by 50 to counter the loss at the end.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, two indexes reached new highs, and the two that didn't were only slightly off and had substantially higher lows. This might be due to waves working out at very lo levels of trend. On balance, i'm seeing this as a positive day. We'll need confirmation tomorrow.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/04/19 - 3078</div><div>11/04/20 - 3443</div><div>10/04/21 - 4300</div><div>11/04/21 - 4680</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1471/1831 = 0.80</div><div>A/D Vol = .42</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 255/29 = 8.79</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwkMHGNF6Uu-2b3g4kQcEoN8dTbuPxB1NRpaHbBpv3yOqw_HbvFuQUylXpXSr6o5UIzW6mA50BGdh91PZTZi-pOVypjeDqAcIvyznknugb3YknTNXzI4yxmOjBJzNXdecarflsSheCVwSW/s1598/Screen+Shot+2021-11-04+at+7.35.16+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1598" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwkMHGNF6Uu-2b3g4kQcEoN8dTbuPxB1NRpaHbBpv3yOqw_HbvFuQUylXpXSr6o5UIzW6mA50BGdh91PZTZi-pOVypjeDqAcIvyznknugb3YknTNXzI4yxmOjBJzNXdecarflsSheCVwSW/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-11-04+at+7.35.16+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, November 5, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,697.53 +17.47 (+0.37%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">36,327.95 +203.72 (+0.56%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,971.59 +31.28 (+0.20%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,437.08 +34.65 (+1.44%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 36107, up 19 points, and rose to 4719, the day's hi, up 38, after 10:00. It sunk to 4681, the lo, up 1 point at 1:30. It rose until after 2:00, then moved sideways into the close. This was a clearly up day by 36 and 19 points. There were new all time highs by 36 points intra-day and 17 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI 30 opened at 36269, up 145 points. It rose to 36485, the hi, up 361 after 10:00, then slid to 36190, the lo, up 66, at 1:30. It rose until 2:15 then ran sideways into the close. This was a clearly up day by 317 and 204 points. The Index also achieved new highs by 306 points intra-day and 170 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 16004, up 63 points, and rose to its hi, 16053, up 113, after 10:00. It dropped to the day's lo, 15901, off 40 points at 1:30, rose until 2:15, then went sideways into the close. This is a clearly up day by 87 and 73 points, and the Index achieved new all time highs by 87 points intra-day and 31 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2403, the day's lo up 1 point, and reached 2449, the hi, up 47 before 11:30. It fell near the lo at 1:45, then had a choppy rise into the close for the day's biggest gain. It had a clearly up day by25 and 8 points, and reached new all time highs by 25 points intra-day and 111 [!] at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>There can be very little doubt now that we are seeing third wave advances on all the indexes, at some level of trend. If this is correct, a 4th wave decline will follow, for perhaps a 50% retracement of the 3rd wave gain [just as a guess.] After that there will be a 5th wave up, including another string of new highs. When that is complete, a larger scale correction will occur. That is only one possibility – but right now it looks like the most likely one.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes </u></b>-</div><div>SP500 +2.00%</div><div>DJI 30 +1.42%</div><div>NASDAQ +3.05%</div><div>Russell 2000 +6.09% [!}</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>11/05/19 - 3075</div><div>11/05/20 - 3510</div><div>10/05/21 - 4346</div><div>11/05/21 - 4697</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 2229/1131 = 1.97</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.04</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 290/24 = 12.08</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhArpnKI0TFehDeAWa8EsDZaQxc7lfnl8_6O9wG-4jZSzGEpzc8EKv5BAyBmCJ24frlWNlD6o-YxiD3PZz596iGdxgEuonhJIM9KNCGQILz7RWImxzr0VTdR1YPe_mCUYgFwcDWDl61piGw/s1604/Screen+Shot+2021-11-05+at+7.30.12+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1604" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhArpnKI0TFehDeAWa8EsDZaQxc7lfnl8_6O9wG-4jZSzGEpzc8EKv5BAyBmCJ24frlWNlD6o-YxiD3PZz596iGdxgEuonhJIM9KNCGQILz7RWImxzr0VTdR1YPe_mCUYgFwcDWDl61piGw/w400-h224/Screen+Shot+2021-11-05+at+7.30.12+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-52061007940763979652021-10-25T20:25:00.011-04:002021-10-29T19:39:46.826-04:00Taking Stock - Week of October 25<div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, October 25, 2021</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: #38761d; font-family: georgia;"><b>Green Arrow Up</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,566.48 +21.58 (+0.47%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,741.15 +64.13 (+0.18%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,226.71 +136.51 (+0.90%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,312.64 +21.37 (+0.93%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 opened at 4554, up 9 points, and quickly fell to the lo of 4537, off 8. It then rose up to the day's hi of </span><span style="font-family: georgia;">4573, up 28 at 1:15. It then stayed above 4565 until after 3:00 when it slid into the close. This is a clearly up day by 13 points at each end. This is gives us a new intra-day hi by 13 points, and a closing hi by 17 points over last Thursday's.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI had a similar but choppier path. It opened at 35693, up 16 points, and quickly dropped to 35629, off 48. It hit the hi of 35787, up 110, at 1:15. From there it was a bumpy ride down to the close which, surprisingly occurred on a 29 point up-tic and a volume surge. This was a clearly up day by 22 points at the top and 95 at the bottom. This gives us new intra-day and closing highs by 22 and 64 points, respectively. </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ opened up 52 points then quickly whip-sawed to the day's lo, off 20. It then climbed pretty steadily to the day's hi, up 169 after 2:30 before sliding into the close. There was a small jp-tic at the end on a volume surge. It had a clearly up day by 67 points at the top and 50 at the bottom. It is still under its 9/07 highs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 opened flat at the day's lo, chopped up then down again before rising to the day's hi, up 24, before noon. From there it was mostly sideways with a slight slide into the close. This was a clearly up day by</span><span style="font-family: georgia;">15 points at either end. The Index exceeded its 9/02 local high by 5 points, but remains well below the early June local highs.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">These are solid gains, and if I squint I can see a potential five wave structure forming, now I wave three, at some small level of trend. It this is valid there cold be several more months of bull market. However, there is the possibility of another pull back before things take off.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">10/25/19 - 3023</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">10/23/20 - 3465</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">09/24/21 - 4455</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">10/25/21 - 4566</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">A/D = 2122/1245 = 1.70</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">A/D Vol = 1.67</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">New Hi/Lo = 212/25 = 8.48</span></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhILK6Q8klYs5hGcc7kf1oYr4_lGsukCagN8eHSw3qI3ft0XO8Rs9k1EfDcJexZ1lQTkv2qR27LxGRRF8XQPlkcupEvMZTirvx9ETgRfFSDemreuf84BCB5q4St96ukZYRqYpyGhjJwKBLu/s1624/Screen+Shot+2021-10-25+at+8.15.35+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1624" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhILK6Q8klYs5hGcc7kf1oYr4_lGsukCagN8eHSw3qI3ft0XO8Rs9k1EfDcJexZ1lQTkv2qR27LxGRRF8XQPlkcupEvMZTirvx9ETgRfFSDemreuf84BCB5q4St96ukZYRqYpyGhjJwKBLu/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-10-25+at+8.15.35+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Tuesday, October 26, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,574.79 +8.31 (+0.18%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,756.88 +15.73 (+0.04%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,235.72. +9.01 (+0.06%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,296.08 -16.56 (-0.72%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4579, up 12 points, and immediately jumped up to 4583, on the way to 4599, the day's hi, before 10:30. It moved sideways for an hour, then fell, reaching 4569, the day's lo, before 1:00. It then rose, reaching 4587 at 3:45 before a hard 12 point fall into the close on a volume surge. As bad as that sounds, this was a clearly up day by the substantial margins of 26 and 32 points. Also, there were new highs: 26 points intra-day and 8 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 had a similar contour, hitting its hi, 35893, before 11:30 and its lo, 35735, after 12:30. It recovered to 35855 before 3:30, then also fell hard into the close on a volume surge. It also had a clearly up day, by 106 and 105 points, and new all time highs by 106 intra-day and 16 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ followed a similar path, though it went 28 points negative at its early afternoon lo. It' late afternoon recovery was meager and it finished the day with the smallest gain. It still had a clearly up day by 124 and 127 points. It remains below the 9/07 highs by 19 points intra-day and 139 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened flat, dropped briefly negative, then went positive, hitting its hi at 11:00. At noon it slipped negative and stayed there the rest of the day. It fell the last hour and a half, finishing with the day's worst performance. Despite all that, it had a mixed day with the hi and lo higher by 7 and 4 pints, respectively.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, this is a good news bad news kind of day. Every index achieved at least a local intra-day hi, but the closes were close to the days' lows. Nothing travels in a straight line. I'm taking the late day activity to be part of counter-current motion to a continuing short term up trend. Tomorrow will tell us more.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/25/19 - 3023</div><div>10/26/20 - 3401</div><div>09/24/21 - 4455</div><div>10/26/21 - 4575</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 1498/1844 = 0.81</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.66</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 2o2/26 = 7.77</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZPJJWmq_A4gynjRgPhBlRg9s2_ixSeFLcjXM54AnBqyKIECmKeZzKtdFicAJ5K-uYux_BEATtxLtSRlz7MtyJy8fLDkwvughhOsHW2rRRgNenFgORtBcHkr2j475at1-7EWqeNx5o3JJL/s1634/Screen+Shot+2021-10-26+at+6.06.43+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1634" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZPJJWmq_A4gynjRgPhBlRg9s2_ixSeFLcjXM54AnBqyKIECmKeZzKtdFicAJ5K-uYux_BEATtxLtSRlz7MtyJy8fLDkwvughhOsHW2rRRgNenFgORtBcHkr2j475at1-7EWqeNx5o3JJL/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-10-26+at+6.06.43+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, October 27, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: red;">4,551.68 -23.11 (-0.51%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: red;">35,490.69 -266.19 (-0.74%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;"> 15,235.84 +0.12 (+0.00%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 ---<b><span style="color: red;"> 2,252.49 -43.58 (-1.90%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4580, up 5 points. It slithered around neutral until 1:00 when it rose, reaching 4585, the day's hi, at 2:15. From there, it fell hard into the close, losing 22 points in the last hour, and ending less than a point above the very late afternoon lo. This is a clearly down day by 14 and 17 points. The day's lo is still above the 9/02 hi. </div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI spent little time slightly positive early in the session, then spent the rest of the day in the red. It was all down-hill from 2:15 on, with a steep fall in the last 20 minutes, landing shortly after and within a fraction of the lo. This was a clearly down day by 58 and 244 points. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ started positive and stayed in the green all day. It hit its maximum after 2:00, then followed the other indexes down into the close, giving back 129 points to end the day at its lo for no gain. This was an inside day by 20 points and the top and 38 at the bottom. It is hovering under the 9/07 highs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started negative and stayed there. It slid down the entire day with a steep drop at the end. It had a clearly down day by 26 and 44 points. The lo is only 3 points above the 55 day EMA. On Monday and Tuesday the Index achieved highs that were above the local hi of 9/02, but below the local highs in June and July.</div><div><br /></div><div>If there is a 5 wave upward thrust, this motion could be counter-current; perhaps subwave iv of 3 at some level of trend. Alternatively the upward thrust might have been corrective, in which case this is the beginning of a continuation down to new local lows. The next couple days should offer some clarity.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/25/19 - 3023</div><div>10/27/20 - 3391</div><div>09/27/21 - 4443</div><div>10/27/21 - 4553</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 939/2379 = 0.39</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.23</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 92/49 = 1.88</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0tB-X9-UiQqcNqFfe0umMEcZKYKmM-Rei90o_ZaD5WY5rIKCcdXLg_Ryvr3KcdJCpdWnx0jafpRW4n0WkHbyQLezRg2BvWjPT73n5GtgGTiPXqt-PlShd8hoEjvToR1XE9cZnDQ1OpIN/s1638/Screen+Shot+2021-10-27+at+4.52.06+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1638" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG0tB-X9-UiQqcNqFfe0umMEcZKYKmM-Rei90o_ZaD5WY5rIKCcdXLg_Ryvr3KcdJCpdWnx0jafpRW4n0WkHbyQLezRg2BvWjPT73n5GtgGTiPXqt-PlShd8hoEjvToR1XE9cZnDQ1OpIN/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-10-27+at+4.52.06+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Thursday, October 28, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,596.42 +44.74 (+0.98%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,730.48 +239.79 (+0.68%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,448.12 +212.28 (+1.39%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,297.98 +45.49 (+2.02%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4562, up 10 points and quickly rose to 4575, on the way to a hi of 4593, up 40 at 10:45. From there it was mostly sideways, with a local lo of 4575 at 1:00. At the end it reached 4597.55, missing an all time intra-day by less than a point, then hit a new all time closing hi by almost 22 points at 4596.42 on a volume surge. This is a clearly up day by 13 and 11 points. </div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 followed a similar path, but at a lower level with a smaller gain. It had an inside day by 93 points at the top and 55 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ followed a similar path, but at a higher level with a larger gain. It had a clearly up day by 88 and 55 points. It set new intra-day and closing highs, exceeding those of 9/07 by 49 and 74 points, respectively.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 also followed a similar path, ands was the day's big winner, gaining over 2%. But this was not enough to gain new local highs, since the index is still below the highs of Monday and Tuesday.</div><div><br /></div><div>So what are we to make of all this? Even with some new highs, the indexes might still be at inflection points where they cold be either pausing in up-trends or getting ready to turn, leading to new legs down. For now, I'm sticking with the up-trends. We'll know soon if this is wishful thinking.</div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/25/19 - 3039</div><div>10/28/20 - 3271</div><div>09/28/21 - 4353</div><div>10/28/21 - 4596</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 2316/1014 = 2.2</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.24</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 139/45 = 3.09</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfqLr4p_0OJJVPf4gvkFwAMrNi_VneRPTjAd-stNW6M4Kc1XdXdHccIZwk2Vpj8M822gB2IZqZFPn9pqPQmJlG_dDZJUt7V9u4ogiadtLRqX7sfp2HwpulgkDQB07LIjAhSlktxG_r4Vf7/s1628/Screen+Shot+2021-10-28+at+7.14.52+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1628" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfqLr4p_0OJJVPf4gvkFwAMrNi_VneRPTjAd-stNW6M4Kc1XdXdHccIZwk2Vpj8M822gB2IZqZFPn9pqPQmJlG_dDZJUt7V9u4ogiadtLRqX7sfp2HwpulgkDQB07LIjAhSlktxG_r4Vf7/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-10-28+at+7.14.52+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, October 29, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Green Arrow Up</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,605.38 +8.96 (+0.19%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,819.56 +89.08 (+0.25%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,498.39 +50.27 (+0.33%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,297.19 -0.79 (-0.03%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4573, off 24 points, and rose step-wise to 4604 at 12:30. It fell back into negative territory, landing near 4590 at 2:30 and 3:15 before rising sharply into the hi, just moments before and about 3 points above the close. This gives us a clearly up day by 11 and 5 points, and new all time highs by 10 points intra-day and 9 at the close. </div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35712, off 18 points, and quickly rose to 35790. It then dropped to 35633, the day's lo, off 97, at 10:30. It rose to 35830 at 12:30, slipped back to 35710 at 2:30 and 3:15, then rose to 35853, the day's hi, just moments before the close. This was a clearly up day by 110 and 88 points. It misses a new intra-day hi by 40 points, but achieves a new closing hi by 63.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15323, off 125 points, and the day's lo. It rose step-wise the rest of the day, hitting the hi, 15504, moments before the close. This was a clearly up day by 52 and 33 points, and reached new intra-day and closing highs by 52 and 50.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 opened at 2297, off 1 point, and slithered around neutral until before noon, when it went mostly sideways slightly in the red until after 2:00. It dropped to 2288, the day's lo, at 3:20, rose to 2299 at 3:47, then finished with a trivial loss of less than a point. This is a mixed day with gains of 4 points at the hi and 34 at the lo, but no new highs were achieved.</div><div><br /></div><div>I rated this day's action a green arrow, but not with a lot of conviction. The increases were anemic. With the indexes futzing around at or near new highs it's hard to know what will happen next. The NYSE internals were not strong today, with advances slightly below declines, but up volume dwarfed by down volume, This could be the end of a short term rally, or a spring board to new higher highs. I don't know what to expect. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 +1.33%</div><div>DJI 30 +0.40%</div><div>NASDAQ +2.71%</div><div>Russell 2000 +0.26%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/29/19 - 3037</div><div>10/29/20 - 3310</div><div>09/29/21 - 4359</div><div>10/29/21 - 4605</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 1617/1709 = 0.95</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.32</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 155/46 = 3.37</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvM0Cuq0N5GVWDRdz80_vWnN05rQyICR0kZcc-gEyxfDm1L_9tjvABnjnrMo56Y2AXl9UoiA8NuXLxUaY9Xv7mvx07k3jMiG_keGGMXLBffvcGKb450mSossB5ZKr1lgBvis1CcTgHii9N/s1610/Screen+Shot+2021-10-29+at+7.23.28+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1610" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvM0Cuq0N5GVWDRdz80_vWnN05rQyICR0kZcc-gEyxfDm1L_9tjvABnjnrMo56Y2AXl9UoiA8NuXLxUaY9Xv7mvx07k3jMiG_keGGMXLBffvcGKb450mSossB5ZKr1lgBvis1CcTgHii9N/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-10-29+at+7.23.28+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-20308296756682434572021-10-18T20:56:00.005-04:002021-10-24T20:30:14.779-04:00Taking Stock - Week of Oct 18, 2021<b><u>Monday, October 18, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: #f1c232;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b><br /><br />SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #f1c232;">4,486.46 +15.09 (+0.34%)</span></b><br /><br />DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #f1c232;">35,258.61 -36.15 (-0.10%)<br /></span></b><br />NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,021.81 +124.47 (+0.84%)</span></b><br /><br />Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #f1c232;">2,267.84 +2.19 (+0.10%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4464, off 6 points, and quickly dropped to 4447, off 22. Then it climbed quickly, reaching 4470 after 10:00. After an hour of sideways motion it climbed again to 4484, up 14, before 11:30. Then it went sideways again, staying above 4477. At 2:30 it started to rise again, hitting the hi of 4489 a few minutes before the close. This is an outside day by 13 points at the top and a fraction of a point at the bottom, with a small gain at the end..<br /><br />The DJI followed a similar path in the morning, hitting the day's hi of 35326 before 11:30. Then it slid lower until 2:30, when it started a slow rise, uneven rise into the close. It had a mixed day with the hi and lo higher by the tiny margins of 7 and 12 points while losing 36 at the close. So this session was basically flat. <br /><br />The NASDAQ had a similar first hour then rose the rest of the day, finishing within 6 points of the hi. It had an outside day by 122 points at the top and 15 at the bottom. <br /><br />The Russell 2000 also had a similar first hour. But it went sideways until 11:30, then rose to the day's hi of 2272 at 12;15. It then slid until 2:00 before going sideways the rest of the session for a tiny gain. It had a mixed day with the hi lower by 34 points and the lo lower by 10, contra the 2 point gain at the close<br /><br />After two sessions of strong gains, today was pretty much ho-hum. I'm going with yellow, despite the reasonable gain in the NASDAQ. The sort term trend still appears to be up, but it's too early to say for sure. Follow-through for the rest of the week will be important. I've probably said that before.<br /><br /><b><u>P500 Closings</u></b> -<br />10/18/19 - 2986<br />10/16/20 - 3484<br />09/17/21 - 4433<br />10/18/21 - 4486<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals </u></b>- <br />A/D = 1597/1699 = 0.94<br />A/D Vol = 0.85<br />New Hi/Lo = 141/47 = 3.00<div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xrEsUYO_Lh_34YBTevlCjHiKCWWWEcjBr6dSVYyxZrC3De0HQ5UUftEfzAHP_5JnJ4lmmCC05NycNnlNSiDuogb0B7d_hHNtosPNfkHnhp7rhJvfR2Fof45o5SxVy8wX_0mnqLNLuztx/s1622/Screen+Shot+2021-10-18+at+8.45.17+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="866" data-original-width="1622" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7xrEsUYO_Lh_34YBTevlCjHiKCWWWEcjBr6dSVYyxZrC3De0HQ5UUftEfzAHP_5JnJ4lmmCC05NycNnlNSiDuogb0B7d_hHNtosPNfkHnhp7rhJvfR2Fof45o5SxVy8wX_0mnqLNLuztx/w400-h214/Screen+Shot+2021-10-18+at+8.45.17+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, October 19, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,519.63 +33.17 (+0.74%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,457.31 +198.70 (+0.56%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,129.09 +107.28 (+0.71%</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 2,275.91 +8.07 (+0.36%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4497, up 11 points, and reached 4516, up 30, after 11:00. With some variation, it ran mostly sideways until it rose into the finish, ending within a point of the day's 3:20 hi. This is a clearly up day by 32 points at the top and 49 at the bottom. It's the 3rd consecutive day with a higher close that is above the 9/23 local hi. It is now only 26 points below the 9/02 all time hi of 4537.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 followed a similar path, but gained less in the morning and lagged the SP500 all day. This is a clearly up day by 135 and 254 points. It's the 4th consecutive day with a close above that of the local hi on 9/29. It is now only 174 points under the 8/16 all time hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also followed a very similar path as the SP500 to a nearly identical finish. It had a clearly up day by 111 and 216 points. Today's close is 274 points under the 9/07 all time hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 followed a different path, hitting its hi at 1:00. From there it was a bumpy ride down to the close. But the close was positive, and the Index had a clearly up day by 12 and 10 points. It has not yet exceeded its local hi of 9/27. At today's hi it was 9 points short, and 17 points short at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>Everything was positive today, to some degree. So the short term trend appears to be up. To achieve a longer term up-trend will require exceeding the all time highs. However, volumes on the SP500, DJI30 and NYSE were quite low today. So stay tuned – new highs might be happening soon. Emphasis on might.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/18/19 - 2986</div><div>10/19/20 - 3427</div><div>09/17/21 - 4433</div><div>10/19/21 - 4520</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 1597/1699 = 0.94</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.85</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 141/47 = 3.00</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3a5tzZqPdWD0su6taqYFnXNacY4LaWufUkY1T0e6FsUxpGts2oKADm2mSJnH17b0jqKBfrQeLijBDwT4jQEYTb8H3DdUFjHq0V96Vay7ZV9dvGAvQvONRMwy7fQJzgkm90rfcMqZNWr5-/s1636/Screen+Shot+2021-10-19+at+6.43.42+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1636" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3a5tzZqPdWD0su6taqYFnXNacY4LaWufUkY1T0e6FsUxpGts2oKADm2mSJnH17b0jqKBfrQeLijBDwT4jQEYTb8H3DdUFjHq0V96Vay7ZV9dvGAvQvONRMwy7fQJzgkm90rfcMqZNWr5-/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-10-19+at+6.43.42+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><div><br /></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, October 19, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,536.20 +16.57 (+0.37%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,609.34 +152.03 (+0.43%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,121.68 -7.41 (-0.05%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,289.77 +13.85 (+0.61%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4524, the day's lo, up 5 points. It hit the the hi, 4541, at 10:30. It chopped around between those levels and finished on an up-tic and a volume surge for a small gain. This is an outside day by 20 and 28 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The day's hi was 5 points under the all time hi of 9/02/21; and the close was less than 2 points under the all time closing hi of the same date.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35475, up 18 points. It hit its hi, 35670, up 212 after 12:30. The session ended on an up-tic and a volume surge. This was a clearly up day by 207 and 178 points. At the peak, the Index exceeded the 8/16 all time hi by 39 points, but it missed a new all time hi at the close by 16.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15160, up 31 points. It hit its lo 15071, off 58 points, at 1:30. It ended on an up-tic and a volume surge for a tiny loss.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started slightly negative and hit its hi after 12:30. After 1:30 it went sideways into the close for the day's largest gain. It had a clearly up day by 10 and 6 points, and is still hovering below recent highs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The short term trend is still up, and this is encouraging. Still – more follow-through is needed. So stay tuned, and hope for the best.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/18/19 - 2986</div><div>10/20/20 - 3443</div><div>09/17/21 - 4358</div><div>10/20/21 - 4536</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 2241/1044 = 2.15</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.86</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 185/17 = 10.88</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQCdx77u3VPdy7IiXQfR7g82Eo-IV6G7tZqG7SbASZEqMYqO_ymU2-f1fwST7sKSF-PMua_K6ylNdMjI3yHGz-fF9KXJK1tfX1OpKYraXoZWsEEckmyHA7UzvHRoIOmkfOLe148SbC8QO/s1606/Screen+Shot+2021-10-20+at+10.23.59+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1606" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBQCdx77u3VPdy7IiXQfR7g82Eo-IV6G7tZqG7SbASZEqMYqO_ymU2-f1fwST7sKSF-PMua_K6ylNdMjI3yHGz-fF9KXJK1tfX1OpKYraXoZWsEEckmyHA7UzvHRoIOmkfOLe148SbC8QO/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-10-20+at+10.23.59+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Thursday, October 21, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,549.78 +13.59 (+0.30%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">35,603.08 -6.26 (-0.02%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,215.70 +94.02 (+0.62%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,296.18 +6.42 (+0.28%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4532, off 3 points, and quickly fell to 4527, the day's low, off 9. It coiled around neutral until 2:00 when it rose, leading to a steep increase in the last few minutes to 4551, but then a small drop on a volume surge at the end. It had a clearly up day by 11 and 2 points. These small gains are enough to give the Index new all time highs by 6 points intraday and 13 at the close.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI30 was in the red all day and hit its lo at 11:30. It started moving up after 2:00 and also hit its hi just before the close. At the end it missed positive territory by only 6 points, but had a clearly down day by 57 pints at the top and 32 at the bottom. Yesterday there was a new intra-day hi, though not a new closing hi. Today's action is not good follow-through.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened 16 points in the red, but quickly rose until 11:00. After a draw back, it gained the rest of the day to finish with 7 points of the late day hi for the day's largest gain. It was clearly up by 44 and 23 points, but is still under the 9/07 local highs.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started one point in the green, rose to the day's hi after 10:00, and went down to the lo, 5 points in the red, at 11:30. It coiled around neutral until 3:00 when it had a bumpy ride up to close 8 points under the hi. It had a clearly up day by 9 and 13 points, but is still under the 9/02 highs..</div><div><br /></div><div>Every index followed its own path in a more or less neutral session.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/21/19 - 3007</div><div>10/21/20 - 3436</div><div>09/21/21 - 4354</div><div>10/21/21 - 4550</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 1547/1735 = 0.89</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.61</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 169/14 = 12.07</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuQnsRUZIWToabY5OcMPSxdpajjC6SXjkHq0eOhxnw3hAhI1NuWJvNv1JxdwilVUq2u5dWjS0uYQfVF145KK5zxU5OM5RU64z5FvQCb3MBECmBqCUtkZ_D14nXo37drcwOU27gGxaogp-Y/s1618/Screen+Shot+2021-10-21+at+8.00.19+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1618" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuQnsRUZIWToabY5OcMPSxdpajjC6SXjkHq0eOhxnw3hAhI1NuWJvNv1JxdwilVUq2u5dWjS0uYQfVF145KK5zxU5OM5RU64z5FvQCb3MBECmBqCUtkZ_D14nXo37drcwOU27gGxaogp-Y/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-10-21+at+8.00.19+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Taking Stock </u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Friday, October 22, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,544.90 -4.88 (-0.11%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">35,677.02 +73.94 (+0.21%)</span></b></div><div> </div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">15,090.20 -125.50 (-0.82%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,291.27 -4.92 (-0.21%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4546, off 4 points. It reached 4560, the day's hi and a new all time intra-day at 10:00. But then it dropped and hit 4524, the day's lo, off 26, before noon. From there it slowly climbed into the close for a small loss. The last half hour was flattish on increasing volume. The close was 5 points under Thursday's all time closing hi. This was an outside day, plus 8 points at the top and minus 3 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 35608, up 5 points. It climbed up to 35765, up 162, the day's hi and a new all time intra-day hi before 10:30. From there it fell to 35354, the day's lo, off 69, before noon. After that it was a jagged climb into the close for a 74 point gain and a new all time closing hi at 35677. It was a clearly up day by 153 and 91 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened at 15158, off 58 points, and never saw green. It dropped to a low of 15021 before noon. It spent the rest of the day twisting around 15085, ending with a 126 point loss. It had a clearly down day by 29 and 73 points. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started up a half point at 2296, and rose to the day's hi of 2300, up 4, at 1:30. It dropped to 2277, the day's lo, off 19, before noon. It had a clearly down day by 4 and 8 points. This index has been moving sideways since March.</div><div><br /></div><div>So – a day of not much, if you ignore the NASDAQ. Futures are down by about 0.3% as I write this on Sunday evening. Still – each index gained over a percent on the week, and the short term trend appears to be up.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 +1.64%</div><div>DJI 30 +1.08%</div><div>NASDAQ +1.29%</div><div>Russell 2000 +1.13%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/22/19 - 2996</div><div>10/22/20 - 3453</div><div>09/22/21 - 4396</div><div>10/22/21 - 4545</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> - </div><div>A/D = 1671/1615 = 1.03</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.97</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 207/22 = 9.41</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBrnNLb6DipfnOP5glL8MWXBbMek8J3g17nQIx01EH60QlKg1jiuQAmj7RBWznUHr5eUfVRiPMDY48nH78n-Mbp7L5UJlJmfn7ltYP48uqBggbfWuHjMnk8z7eHK1h58aZ2DE24HxLscV8/s1644/Screen+Shot+2021-10-24+at+8.13.44+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1644" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBrnNLb6DipfnOP5glL8MWXBbMek8J3g17nQIx01EH60QlKg1jiuQAmj7RBWznUHr5eUfVRiPMDY48nH78n-Mbp7L5UJlJmfn7ltYP48uqBggbfWuHjMnk8z7eHK1h58aZ2DE24HxLscV8/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-10-24+at+8.13.44+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-26470695118578652142021-10-11T21:52:00.005-04:002021-10-15T23:57:40.633-04:00Taking Stock - Week of October 11, 2021<b><u>Monday, October 11, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: #cc0000;">Red Arrow Down </span></b><br /><br />SP500 at the close ---<b><span style="color: #cc0000;"> 4,361.19 -30.15 (-0.69%)</span></b><br /><br /><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">34,496.06 -250.19 (-0.72%)</span></b><br /><br /><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">14,486.20 -93.34 (-0.64%)</span></b><br /><br /><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #cc0000;">2,220.64 -12.45 (-0.56%)</span></b><br /><br />The SP500 opened at 4385, off 6 points. It dropped another point, quivered for a few minutes, then rose, reaching 4416, up 25, before 10:00. After a 10 point drop it hit near that level again before falling rather sharply to a lo of 4370 before 2:00. From there it ran mostly sideways until 3:30, when it was in the midst of another slump into a new late day lo, less than a point below the close. This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 4 points, and the lo lower by 26. The span was 55, surrounding the 55 day EMA.<br /><br />Over the weekend Elliott wave analyst Avi Gilbert pointed out 4380 [top red line on the chart] as a critical level to watch. He suggests that a sustained break of that level could indicate that the correction is not done, and could go on further for days or even weeks -- with a chance of reaching as deep as 4050 to 4100. Today's lo is 20 points [0.44%] under 4380. This, on its own, does not constitute a meaningful break. I'll be watching this level as we go forward, assuming that Avi is on to something. The rest of this week could be important.<br /><br />The DJI followed a similar path, finishing 10 points above its late day lo. It also had an outside day, by 109 points at the top and 175 at the bottom. Its span was 465, and contained the 55 day EMA.<br /><br />The NASDAQ also followed a similar path. It had a clearly down day by 34 and 87 points. It remains under its 55 day EMA.<br /><br />The Russell 2000 followed a roughly similar path, but stayed closer to neutral for most of the afternoon before falling at the end. It had a clearly down day by 5 and 12 points. The 55 day EMA contained in the day's span. It fell a little less than the other indexes.<br /><br />Things were looking good in the morning, but pretty dismal at the end. It this a dumb money – smart money dynamic?<br /><br /><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -<br />10/04/19 - 2971<br />10/09/20 - 3477<br />09/10/21 - 4459<br />10/11/21 - 4362<br /><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – <br />A/D = 1417/1826 = 0.78<br />A/D Vol = 0.65</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 153/54 = 2.83</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUB-AZMek6IOeSLDvEsVY6HDbxNtlfbC8W3cVc26tC17masClOboklVBXjwUpD90e-JMep7xOWWy8REslJrSmMiR0AMVX0lQp_WcLxe2JG4MbhFaNHa0J78rQVBuck3EmmM8XONbwFIA3G/s1620/Screen+Shot+2021-10-11+at+4.50.44+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="888" data-original-width="1620" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUB-AZMek6IOeSLDvEsVY6HDbxNtlfbC8W3cVc26tC17masClOboklVBXjwUpD90e-JMep7xOWWy8REslJrSmMiR0AMVX0lQp_WcLxe2JG4MbhFaNHa0J78rQVBuck3EmmM8XONbwFIA3G/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-10-11+at+4.50.44+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Tuesday, October 12, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #e69138;">Yellow Arrow Sideways </span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;"> 4,350.65 -10.54 (-0.24%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;">34,378.34 -117.72 (-0.34%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;">14,465.93 -20.28 (-0.14%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;">2,234.27+13.63 (+0.61%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4368, up 7 points, and quickly rose to 4375, up 14. But at 10:15 it abruptly dropped to 4350, 0ff 11. It then gyrated with a slight upward bias until before noon, when it shot up to 4371, up 10. It fell near 4350 again before 1:30, bobbed up briefly into positive territory again an hour later, then slumped to the day's ultimate lo of 4342 just a few minutes before the 8-points-higher close. This is a clearly down day by 41 points at the top and 19 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The lo is 0.87% below the critical level of 4380. This is not yet a sustained break of that level, but it is a cautionary note going forward. Until I see something positive, I'm concluding that the decline is continuing.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI followed a nearly identical path, and finished with a slightly larger loss. It had a clearly down day by 340 points at the top and 168 at the bottom. The spread was 292, all under the 55 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also followed a similar path, and finished with the day's smallest loss. It had a clearly down day by 113 and 41 points, and the entire range was under its 55 day EMA.. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 followed its own path, and was in the green all day, with a slight upward bias. It had a inside day by 10 points at the top and less than 1 at the bottom. The 13 [blue] and 55 [orange] day EMAs are running together and were within today's span. For at least a couple months the trading range has been in a narrowing wedge – for whatever that might be worth.</div><div><br /></div><div>I gave this session a yellow arrow because the losses were small and the Russell gained at the close. But that is being generous, I'm afraid. The NYSE internals were slightly positive today. That's about it.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/11/19 - 2970</div><div>10/12/20 - 3534</div><div>09/10/21 - 4459</div><div>10/12/21 - 4351</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1987/1302 = 1.53</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.15</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 86/60 = 1.43</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBFscV4hNpdZGId4mxNDBY24NyDs4Sdg9Fpp4rx0dFj7N96n7yxJM9sm2iRaSmizbEQwkC93fAX50E9sarK-Up0q0EaHBJsO5OJXIEZtx7hq6zfYe3HUTGs07D8Achzmo2AygkPXdU-Gt8/s1620/Screen+Shot+2021-10-12+at+6.53.21+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1620" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBFscV4hNpdZGId4mxNDBY24NyDs4Sdg9Fpp4rx0dFj7N96n7yxJM9sm2iRaSmizbEQwkC93fAX50E9sarK-Up0q0EaHBJsO5OJXIEZtx7hq6zfYe3HUTGs07D8Achzmo2AygkPXdU-Gt8/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-10-12+at+6.53.21+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, October 13, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">Greenish Arrow Upish, sorta.</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">4,363.80 +13.15 (+0.30%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">34,377.81 -0.53 (-0.00%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">14,571.63 +105.71 (+0.73%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #6aa84f;">2,241.97 +7.70 (+0.34%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4358, up 7 points, and fell to its lo of 4330 at 10:15. From there, it climbed pretty steadily to its hi of 4373 at 2:00. It then went mostly sideways, including a slight rise at the end for a small gain, on increasing volume. This was a mixed day, with the 13 point gain in contrast to losses of 2 points at the hi end, and 12 at the bottom. The entire day was under the critical value of 4380 – but not by a lot. But, this is the 5th straight day with a lower lo. The entire session was under the 55 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI followed a similar path, with a lower pitch, ending the session a half point down. It had a clearly down day by 161 points at the top and 208 at the bottom. The entire 335 point range was under the 55 day EMS.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also had an early morning lo, but was in the green the entire time, ending with a 106 point gain. It had a clearly up day by 37 points at the top and 30 at the bottom. But the entire session was under the 55 day EMA. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 went negative in the morning, then vacillated near neutral most of the rest of the day, before a rise at the end to finish at the sessions hi. It had an out side day by a fraction at the top and a little over 1 at the bottom. The 13 and 55 day EMAs ran together through its 21 point span.</div><div><br /></div><div>I reluctantly gave this session a green arrow, but it is pretty tepid. The small increases are not enough to make a meaningful move against the current downward trend. So I'm concluding that it is still in operation.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/11/19 - 2970</div><div>10/13/20 - 3512</div><div>09/13/21 - 4469</div><div>10/13/21 - 4364</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 2023/1239 = 1.63</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.39</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 71/35 = 2.03</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAAIMXFXYEZqBixJ7ShW1R0LO3jXYRR7R-K5s57x21D5B4UoWq4lGCavuvJX-UvnkblNzvk8lUF0JjKG0OVGt-oorgYVPURT1b8oD0cWeIS4p0UbT2gqOxeLoRHCEJhd3r_gyYEQTHJxF/s1620/Screen+Shot+2021-10-13+at+9.55.18+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1620" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAAIMXFXYEZqBixJ7ShW1R0LO3jXYRR7R-K5s57x21D5B4UoWq4lGCavuvJX-UvnkblNzvk8lUF0JjKG0OVGt-oorgYVPURT1b8oD0cWeIS4p0UbT2gqOxeLoRHCEJhd3r_gyYEQTHJxF/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-10-13+at+9.55.18+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><div><b><u>Thursday, October 14, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,438.25 +74.45 (+1.71%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,912.56 +534.75 (+1.56%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;"> 14,823.43 +251.79 (+1.73%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,274.18 +32.21 (+1.44%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4387, up 23 points, and the day's lo. It immediately jumped to 4405, up 41, then climbed more slowly, reaching 4435, up 71 before 12:30. After that it stayed above 4430, including a surge to 4440 a few minutes before the close, about a point lower. The session ended on an up-tic with a volume surge. This was a clearly up day by 67 and 57 points. The span was 53. With this increase, the 55 day EMA still cut across the bottom of the day's range. This is encouraging, but to become confident that the next wave up MIGHT have started will take a further sustained increase above the 9/23 hi of 5365 – or better yet, 4500. If this is the case, the Index will be on its way to 4900.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI followed a similar path, ending with a slightly smaller gain. It had a clearly up day by 474 and 328 points. The 55 day EMA cut through its 481 day range.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also followed a similar path. It had a clearly up day by 238 and 228 points. The 55 day EMA cut through its 128 point range. It had the day's largest gain. It had spent the vast majority of its time since 9/27, including yesterday's entire session, more than 5% under its 9/07 hi. Today's entire session was above that level</div><div><br /></div><div>Even the Russell followed a similar path. It had a clearly up day by 34 and 24 points. Its entire session was above its 55 day EMA. The vast majority of the time since 9/09 – over a month ago – including the entirety of the last two day's sessions, has been spent more than 5% under its 3/15 high. It spent all of today's sessoin above that level. It was also above its 55 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>Everything today was positive and aligned, for the first time in many weeks. This is a relief – but it's only one day and as such doesn't mean much. As I've often said, follow through is important. So what happens tomorrow, and on into next week should give us some useful information.</div><div><br /></div><div>After I wrote the above, I saw this on Seeking Alpha from Elliott Wave analyst Avi Gilbert.</div><div><br /></div><div>“In the meantime, the market is not out of the woods just yet. The action we seen into early next week will either tell us we have one more trip down to the 4165SPX region before this correction has completed, or if we have indeed completed this correction, and the next buying opportunity will be in early November on a pullback to 4400SPX before we begin the rally to 4900SPX.</div><div><br /></div><div>So, tread carefully. There are still twists and turns to come before we can be sure we have begun the rally to 4900SPX.“</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/14/19 - 2966</div><div>10/14/20 - 3489</div><div>09/13/21 - 4443</div><div>10/14/21 - 4438</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> were very strong today </div><div>A/D = 2554/760 = 3.36</div><div>A/D Vol = 3.93</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 156/23 = 6.78</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4oTblVMgdiW4U7BR0Eb_eTMaHLmnusmFvaeS9v__0xXeZ-Fu2AxfTN6eiMGAFOvl0c8cOSMwX214KlNOK3BAVaXqi6za3yR_BUarTVJrBeOU9bZNA88Y1A7ICAdkrcVHucs1LjC6KvNP4/s1634/Screen+Shot+2021-10-14+at+4.46.49+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1634" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4oTblVMgdiW4U7BR0Eb_eTMaHLmnusmFvaeS9v__0xXeZ-Fu2AxfTN6eiMGAFOvl0c8cOSMwX214KlNOK3BAVaXqi6za3yR_BUarTVJrBeOU9bZNA88Y1A7ICAdkrcVHucs1LjC6KvNP4/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-10-14+at+4.46.49+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, October 15, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b> [<b><span style="color: #cc0000;">mostly</span></b>]</div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,471.37 +33.11 (+0.75%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">35,294.76 +382.20 (+1.09%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,897.34 +73.91 (+0.50%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 2,265.65 -8.52 (-0.37%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened at 4448, up 9 points, and immediately leapt to 4460, up 22. After that it wrapped around 4465 until 1:50. It then wrapped around 4470 until the close. It had a clearly up day by 36 and 61 points. The span was 28. The day's hi and close surpassed the 9/23 local hi of 4465. The next step to validate a continuing bull thrust would be a rise above the 9/02 all time hi of 4546. But there is no guarantee that there won't be another pull back before that happens.</div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI followed a similar path and had the day's largest gain. It had a clearly up day by 397 and 580 points. Having blown past the 9/29 local hi of 34580, the DJI's next target is the 8/16 all time hi of 35631. The same caveats as with the SP500 apply. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had a somewhat different path, but trended positive all day, finishing with the smallest gain. It had a clearly up day by 238 and 228 points. It did not cross above any recents highs, so it has a bit uncertainty, and more to prove.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 was the outlier. It started strong, jumped to the days hi of 2306, then started to fall. That continued most of the day, with a slight bump up between 2:00 and 3:00. But then it fell hard to close with a loss at the day's lo. This was a mixed session, with the hi and lo up by 31 and 22 points, respectively, contra the 8 ½ point loss. At the hi, it exceeded the 9/27 local hi of 2293, and is within 4 points of the 9.02 local hi at 2310.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's confusing to see one index so different from the others – though there was some positive even there, with the higher extremes. So some optimism might be warranted – but temper it with caution. We need to see what next week will bring.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly changes</u></b> -</div><div>SP500 +1.78%</div><div>DJI 30 +1.58%</div><div>NASDAQ +2.18%</div><div>Russell 2000 +1.46%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>SP500 Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/14/19 - 2966</div><div>10/14/20 - 3489</div><div>09/13/21 - 4443</div><div>10/14/21 - 4438</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals </u></b>- </div><div>A/D = 1619/1690 = 0.96</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.61</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 205/30 = 6.83</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT_MZbugZb8gg5JhS0r7_bIu6EpGgTABSrb0XHyD5Gd-qpfOAobzO6Hy0pL_Y0Cghwuu6gaYUej95Pf01WrblMh98QlrkXqjoITyH4vRKcLFno3xjyK2Bg0anacVVgiAr4QaE9i7G2kzIf/s1616/Screen+Shot+2021-10-15+at+7.28.52+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1616" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT_MZbugZb8gg5JhS0r7_bIu6EpGgTABSrb0XHyD5Gd-qpfOAobzO6Hy0pL_Y0Cghwuu6gaYUej95Pf01WrblMh98QlrkXqjoITyH4vRKcLFno3xjyK2Bg0anacVVgiAr4QaE9i7G2kzIf/w400-h217/Screen+Shot+2021-10-15+at+7.28.52+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /><br /></div></div></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-74282929679107717582021-10-05T14:41:00.005-04:002021-10-07T19:29:29.600-04:00Taking Stock - Week of October 4, 2021<b><u>Monday, October 4, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b><br /><br /><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,002.92 -323.54 (-0.94%)<br /></span></b><br />SP500 --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,300.46 -56.58 (-1.30%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,255.48 -311.21 (-2.14%)</span></b><br /><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,217.47 -24.16 (-1.08%)</span></b><br /><br />The DJI opened at 34313, off 14 points, and quickly rose to 34410, up 84. After drifting mostly sideways for a half hour, it took a hard fall to 33906, off 421 after 10:30. It bounced then fell more slowly, hitting 33822, off 505, after 11:30. From there it drifted sideways with a slight upward slant, ending the day at 34003, off almost a percent. <br /><br />This is an inside day by 80 points at the top and 36 at the bottom. The span was 589. The Index is below its 13 and 55 day EMAs, and today's range includes the 144 day EMA. It's slightly above its July lo.<br /><br />The SP500 started slightly negative, then followed the same path as the DJI. It had a clearly down day by 20 and 10 points. At the lo, it just dipped into its support zone, and the entire session was well below its 55 day EMA. This is the lowest it has been since July. It won't take much more of a drop to hit the 144 day EMA [dark purple line on the chart.]<br /><br />The NASDAQ started deeper in the red then followed the same path, ending off over 2%. It had a clearly down day by 107 and 142 points. It hit its 144 day EMA, right at the top of its support zone. This is the lowest it has been since July<br /><br />The Russell 2000 also had the same contour. It had an inside day by 11 points at the top and 13 at the bottom. The 13 and 55 day EMAS have converged, and are contained in today's range. The Index is above its support zone and well above its 144 day EMA.<br /><br />Two indexes clearly down and two inside, but all lower at the close. In the absence of any contrary indications, I'm going to say the short term trend is still down. If there is anything positive about today's session, it's that each index had a slight up-tick in the closing moments. Pretty weak tea.<br /><br />DJI Closings -<br />10/01/19 - 26574<br />10/02/20 - 27683<br />09/03/21 - 35369<br />10/04/21 - 34003<br /><br />NYSE Internals – <br />A/D = 1189/2181 = 0.55<br />A/D Vol = 0.84<br />New Hi/Lo = 116/96 = 1.21<br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6RxKZeA6LW8tDnzC75XF-ClDGhyiw1tvL9rzxIy7v2AFJnTAL0GITQSP1PCbszget-_w9_FtvjhgDONKDA708CSwuOh1V1_YNUh-aFTYz8qVMLt9jJ0LvyIzJaeSy6iRZNQhthi9Q-8r/s1626/Screen+Shot+2021-10-04+at+7.55.57+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="886" data-original-width="1626" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp6RxKZeA6LW8tDnzC75XF-ClDGhyiw1tvL9rzxIy7v2AFJnTAL0GITQSP1PCbszget-_w9_FtvjhgDONKDA708CSwuOh1V1_YNUh-aFTYz8qVMLt9jJ0LvyIzJaeSy6iRZNQhthi9Q-8r/w400-h217/Screen+Shot+2021-10-04+at+7.55.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Tuesday, October 5, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,314.67 +311.75 (+0.92%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,345.72 +45.26 (+1.05%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,433.83 +178.35 (+1.25%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,228.36 +10.89 (+0.49%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34035, up 32 points. After a zig-zag it rose to 34480, up 477 after 11:00. From there it was mostly sideways. It touched near the peak of 34491, up 488, at 3:15, then fell 176 points into the close. This is a clearly up day by 81 points at the top and 214 at the bottom, with a span of 456. The hi was half a point above Friday's, and the close was 8 points under. So today's action almost exactly undid yesterday's. The difference is that the lo is 250 points above Friday's. Yesterday, the 144 day EMA passed through the lower part of the day's range. Bargain hunters note: Thursday's lo and close and Friday's and yesterday's lows were slightly more than 5% off the 8/16 hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 followed a similar path. It had a clearly up day by 14 and 31 points. The hi was 6 points under Friday's and the close was 11 points under. So it missed undoing yesterday's loss by those margins. It bounced off the top of its support zone yesterday, and today's range is about midway between the 55 and 144 day EMAs. Yesterday's and Thursday's closes were slightly more than 5% off the 9/02 hi, if anyone thinks that's a “buy the dip” opportunity.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also followed a similar path. It had a clearly up day by 9 points at the top and 118 at the bottom. It bounced off the top of its support zone, and the 144 day EMA passed through the last 3 day's range. I remains well under last Friday's values. Daily lows hav been more than 5% off its 9/07 hi. At yesterday's lo it was 7.9% off.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 reached its peak after 11:00, slumped until after 12:30, then ran sideways. Ih had a clearly up day by 4 and 8 points. It's been off its 3/13 peak by 5% or more several times since then, including 3 of the last 4 closes. It's still well above it support zone and its 144 day EMA. The 13 and 55 day EMA's are within today's range.</div><div><br /></div><div>Gains are better than losses, but this is really just more sideways action. Ho hum.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings </u></b>-</div><div>10/04/19 - 26574</div><div>10/05/20 - 28149</div><div>09/03/21 - 35369</div><div>10/05/21 - 34315</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1913/138 = 1.39</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.81</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 106/63 = 1.68</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSJgP6QmU7p4M6qCklABI6iKSAUJ0k8lBLg_zt5f3aiTjprRQxK-_XHzD6F702tOIDHOweW9CicPPUfJyPEvLoBTqI65q7IF2XcvFMYb1ZyUGNz8PBCRqlv8EAlMdE2z0Odn4cjiL6xw_n/s1626/Screen+Shot+2021-10-05+at+7.13.21+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="914" data-original-width="1626" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSJgP6QmU7p4M6qCklABI6iKSAUJ0k8lBLg_zt5f3aiTjprRQxK-_XHzD6F702tOIDHOweW9CicPPUfJyPEvLoBTqI65q7IF2XcvFMYb1ZyUGNz8PBCRqlv8EAlMdE2z0Odn4cjiL6xw_n/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-10-05+at+7.13.21+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, October 6, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #e69138;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <span style="color: #e69138;"><b>34,416.99 +102.32 (+0.30%)</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b style="color: #f1c232;"> </b><span style="color: #e69138;"><b>4,363.55 +17.83 (+0.41%)</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;">14,501.91 +68.08 (+0.47%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #e69138;">2,214.96 -13.40 (-0.60%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34198.96, off 116 points, and immediately fell hard, hitting, the lo of 33855, off 460, after 10:00. It stayed below 34125 until 1:30, then rose to 34375 before 2:30. It was then mostly sideways with a rise of over 100 points in the last 12 minutes to end slightly positive. This is a mixed day with the high and low lower</div><div>by 58 and 181 points. The span was 578. At the lo, the Index was only 5 points above the 5% loss level from the 8/16 hi, and marginally under its 144 day EMA. </div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a similar contour and a slightly more positive close. It had a mixed day with the hi and lo lower by 4 and 19 points. At the lo, it touched the top of its resistance band and was 41 points above the 144 day EMA. At the lo it was more than 5% off the 9/02 hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour ending with a the day's largest gain of almost ½%. Daily closings have been more than 5% off the 9/07 hi since 9/28, and even the highs have been below that level since 9/30. today's lo was only 84 points above the top of the resistance zone, and 25 points above its 144 day EMA.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 started similar to the other indexes, but when they turned up mid-afternoon, the Russell stayed flat and lost over 1%. The index has been more than 5% under its 3/15 high almost continuously since 9/10. It is well above its support zone, but the 144 day EMA cut above the daily low today for the 4th time since late July.</div><div><br /></div><div>Three indexes up by less than a half percent, and on off by more than a half percent. More going nowhere. Stay tuned, I suppose.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/04/19 - 26574</div><div>10/06/20 - 27773</div><div>09/03/21 - 35369</div><div>10/06/21 - 34417</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1502/1758 = 0.85</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.72</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 34/95 = 0.36</div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeTbyptcqKYSwuGF-Yo4dmfE0sk6g-IUgEW0uAb8R3GMSuLeX6TLNN53FAtNNpr0jDh5NT4PsJK0QdO5-6HkC-c_cCZxl8NNsQe5uImTwkJ-l06jJt6HgvkKTYng0AT0PXJTm1j22SJmFT/s1630/Screen+Shot+2021-10-06+at+10.33.47+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="882" data-original-width="1630" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeTbyptcqKYSwuGF-Yo4dmfE0sk6g-IUgEW0uAb8R3GMSuLeX6TLNN53FAtNNpr0jDh5NT4PsJK0QdO5-6HkC-c_cCZxl8NNsQe5uImTwkJ-l06jJt6HgvkKTYng0AT0PXJTm1j22SJmFT/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-10-06+at+10.33.47+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Thursday, October 7, 2021</u></b></div><br /><div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,754.94 +337.95 (+0.98%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,399.76 +36.21 (+0.83%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,654.02 +152.10 (+1.05%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,250.09 +35.14 (+1.59%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34510, the day's lo, up 93 points, and zoomed up to 34795, up 378, on the way to the day's hi of 34974 up 557 after 10:30. It stayed above 34900 until 2:00, when it was in the midst of a sharp fall, hitting 34750 at 3:00 and, after a 100 point bounce, again at 3:45, followed by multiple quick zigzags. The gain is nice, but giving back 40% of the early morning gain is all too typical, and not at all comforting.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is a clearly up day by the robust margins of 543 points at the top and 655 at the bottom. The span was 465, and the close was 73 points above the 55 day EMA. But the hi was 395 points under the most recent local high on 9/29.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 behaved in a similar manner, and closed right at its 55 day EMA. It had a clearly up day by 64 and 93 points. But its close is 66 points under the 9/23 local hi. </div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also behaved similarly. It had a clearly up day by 246 and 356 points. At the lo, it was more than 5% off its 9/07 hi. At the hi, the Index touched it's 55 day EMA, but at the close was 99 points below it.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 also behaved similarly. It had a clearly up day by 39 and 29 points. At the low it was more than 5% under the 3/15 hi. The close is 15 points above its 55 day EMA, but 43 points under the 9/27 local hi.</div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes had nice gains - so another zig in the ongoing, going nowhere vacillation.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>10/04/19 - 26574</div><div>10/06/20 - 27773</div><div>09/03/21 - 35369</div><div>10/06/21 - 34417</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals </u></b>– </div><div>A/D = 2329/981 = 2.37</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.88</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 128/61 = 2.10</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaHJsi10m3Y9RN9jdCjCs4mlBamSscptcOKYSY__exEzELW6XZsRgSguo_2X0C4CK0Vb4F0Jn-tSF3gec1gX21-87XqUiuhh0k6suWUZurUwLErzmBtPTB9vhHKrXiOJyoXiSCHK4vj7ec/s1632/Screen+Shot+2021-10-07+at+7.24.10+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1632" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaHJsi10m3Y9RN9jdCjCs4mlBamSscptcOKYSY__exEzELW6XZsRgSguo_2X0C4CK0Vb4F0Jn-tSF3gec1gX21-87XqUiuhh0k6suWUZurUwLErzmBtPTB9vhHKrXiOJyoXiSCHK4vj7ec/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-10-07+at+7.24.10+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-70214634623620166772021-09-27T23:14:00.008-04:002021-10-01T20:00:28.121-04:00Taking Stock -Week of September 27, 2021<span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, September 27, 2021</u></b><br /><br /><b><span style="color: red;">Arrows</span></b>, <b><span style="color: #38761d;">arrows</span></b>, <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">everywhere</span></b> – who knows?<br /><br />DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">34,869.37 +71.37 (+0.21%)</span></b><br /><br />SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,443.11 -12.37 (-0.28%)</span></b><br /><br />NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,969.97 -77.73 (-0.52%)</span></b><br /><br />Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,281.00 +32.93 (+1.46%)</span></b><br /><br />The DJI opened at 34739, off 59 points, and immediately started climbing. It reached a hi of 35061, up 263 at 10:30, then fell back to 43950 at 11:00. It dropped to 34880, up 82, at 1:00, then moved sideways, mostly between those 2 levels, then fell off a bit at the end. The main direction after 10:30 was down. Still, this was a clearly up day by 204 points at the top and 91 at the bottom. The span was 322.<br /><br />The SP500 opened near its lo, went to 4457, 2 points positive at 10:30, hit the bottom at 4436 before 1:00, rose just under positive territory between 2:00 and 3:30, then landed near the low. The net of this up and down motion was an inside day by 6 points at either end, and a small loss at the end. The span was 14 points.<br /><br />The NASDAQ was the inverse of the DJI. It opened lo, rose erratically all day, but never made it into the green. It had a clearly down day by 64 and 82 points.<br /><br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 started slightly positive, climbed until 11:00, then went mostly sideways, hitting its hi at 2:30, then sliding into the close for a gain of almost a percent and a half. It had a clearly up day by 33 and 9 points.</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br />Every index went its own way. It's hard to know what to make of a day like this. The Russell had the strongest showing, and the NASDAQ had the weakest. Nothing today suggests that the current trend is up. Until that happens, I suspect that the downward thrust is continuing.<br /><br /><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -<br />9/27/19 - 26820<br />9/25/20 - 27174<br />8/27/21 - 35455<br />9/27/21 - 34869<br /><br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -<br />A/D = 1972/1346 = 1.47<br /></span><span style="font-family: georgia;">A/D Vol = 2.57</span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">New Hi/Lo = 118/47 = 2.51</span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ3Snwk5TWKtDy168znLQKnRmCYS-xT25M-G3kouTXHuFlCGaqaWX2BQ4d0JaBTDZdf5MAyzDkejPnciXGvyD78Uyp-Ta9jAWm0WSqU92jnqtnJZlVzb0n5ZSTrwVbvHBYGHpaoQAj8OL7/s1620/Screen+Shot+2021-09-27+at+10.54.55+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="1620" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ3Snwk5TWKtDy168znLQKnRmCYS-xT25M-G3kouTXHuFlCGaqaWX2BQ4d0JaBTDZdf5MAyzDkejPnciXGvyD78Uyp-Ta9jAWm0WSqU92jnqtnJZlVzb0n5ZSTrwVbvHBYGHpaoQAj8OL7/w400-h226/Screen+Shot+2021-09-27+at+10.54.55+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Tuesday, September 28, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,299.99 -569.38 (-1.63%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: red;"> 4,352.63 -90.48 (-2.04%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,969.97 14,546.68-423.29 (-2.83%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,281.00 2,229.78-51.23 (-2.25%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34748, off 122, and fell hard for a half hour, reaching 34500.off 369, at 10:00. It then slithered down to the lo of 34255, off 615, after 1:00 and again an hour later. It rebounded to 34520, off 349, after 3:00, but then fell again, landing 45 points above the low. This is a clearly down day by 263 and 485 points. The span was 544.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened off 24 points, and quickly fell deeper into the red. It had a clearly down day by 38 and 90 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ opened off 183 points, followed the other indexes down, and had a clearly down day by 185 and 325 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 followed suit and had a clearly down day by 14 and 20 points</div><div><br /></div><div>Yesterday was ambiguous and confusing. Not so today, when the indexes were all sharply down with similar contours. But – no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer. Despite the DJI, SP500 and NASDAQ all achieving new all time highs between August 16 and September 7, they all have been trading in ranges since early July or longer. The DJI has been moving sideways since early May, and the Russell since early February.</div><div><br /></div><div>I still believe the current waves from recent highs are down in all the indexes. But they will all have to fall at least into their resistance zones to confirm.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/27/19 - 26820</div><div>9/28/20 - 27584</div><div>8/27/21 - 35455</div><div>9/28/21 - 34300</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – Extremely weak today</div><div>A/D = 654/12663 = 0.25</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.23</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 77/77 = 1.00</div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHR1j2mPdUtD7tOG6u5XNJYigHMGgk-82AcTNhJlCTx2uwgO3UozlTVqT-e86i3soaJfNVWuHoudDE73L0TuYR8ns_OYPWM0M56valIxZEzXqs07Yq8FX12oOv6T41vRfX3CSQoYd2A4FP/s1626/Screen+Shot+2021-09-28+at+6.30.37+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="880" data-original-width="1626" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHR1j2mPdUtD7tOG6u5XNJYigHMGgk-82AcTNhJlCTx2uwgO3UozlTVqT-e86i3soaJfNVWuHoudDE73L0TuYR8ns_OYPWM0M56valIxZEzXqs07Yq8FX12oOv6T41vRfX3CSQoYd2A4FP/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-09-28+at+6.30.37+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, September 29, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">34,390.72 +90.73 (+0.26%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,359.46 +6.83 (+0.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">14,512.44 -34.24 (-0.24%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,225.31 -4.47 (-0.20%</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34260, up 60 points. It quickly dropped about 55, then shot up, rising over 34500 by 10:00. It zig-zagged along, dropping to 34370 after 1:30. It then quickly rose, reaching 34560, up 260 at 2:15, and the hi of 34580 a half hour later. Sadly, though, it fell hard – 190 points - in the last half hour, landing only 85 points above the lo. This is an inside day with the hi lower by 218, and the lo higher by 51. The span was 274.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 followed a similar path, leading to a smaller gain. It had an inside day by 34 points at the top and 9 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had wider swings, dipping into the red around mid-day and again at the end for a small loss at the close. It had a clearly down day by 141 points at the top and 46 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 was similar to the NASDAQ, with more time in the red, but a smaller loss at the end. It had a clearly down day by 40 points at the top and 6 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>If there is anything encouraging here, it is the the relative small decreases in the daily lows. Also, today's moves are rather inconsequential on their own. As I said yesterday “no new ground has been trod in weeks, or longer.” That is still true. So, I still think the current short term trend is down. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/27/19 - 26820</div><div>9/29/20 - 27453</div><div>8/27/21 - 35455</div><div>9/29/21 - 34391</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1946/1370 = 1.42</div><div>A/D Vol = 1.11</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 57/68 = 0.84</div><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyrDGVBUbvTaAmtAvl6bn8xrVCjYY8yEVqzZx-62Tq3PDBOaGrbyVnz6POFd8eo_LXBJTrBdVLyXaBabJqq2VyKiOpR-6YNBYqXa-iEvcTcNsnSaaSFi6HT9q8ks50opnVTVjFjdQVlQGm/s1590/Screen+Shot+2021-09-29+at+9.57.11+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="864" data-original-width="1590" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyrDGVBUbvTaAmtAvl6bn8xrVCjYY8yEVqzZx-62Tq3PDBOaGrbyVnz6POFd8eo_LXBJTrBdVLyXaBabJqq2VyKiOpR-6YNBYqXa-iEvcTcNsnSaaSFi6HT9q8ks50opnVTVjFjdQVlQGm/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-09-29+at+9.57.11+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><div><b><u>Thursday, September 30, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">33,843.92 -546.80 (-1.59%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,307.54 -51.92 (-1.19%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,448.58 -63.86 (-0.44%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,204.37 -20.94 (-0.94%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34468, up 77 points, and immediately jumped to 34557, up 167. For an instant. From there it was a rough tumble to 33904. off 486 at 12:15. It bounced near that level until 1:30 when it rose, hitting 34160 before 3:00. It then went mostly sideways, staying above 34040 until after 3:30, when it broke sharply down, to close within 10 points of the late day lo. </div><div><br /></div><div>This is a clearly down day by 23 points at the top and 473 at the bottom. The span is a stunning 724 points, the largest since 914 on 3/04/21. </div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 also started positive, followed a similar path as the DJI, and ended with a smaller negative. It had a clearly down day by 3 points at the top and 49 points at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour, but spent more time in the green for most of the morning and again in mid-afternoon; but the late afternoon slide took it negative by almost a half percent. It had a clearly down day by 44 and 49 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 was similar to the SP500 and lost almost a percent. It had a clearly down day by a fraction of a point at the top and 17 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>Each index is approaching, but still above its respective support zone. So on a medium term basis, motion is still sideways. On a short term basis, it's still down. The sharp fall off at the end of today's session is especially disturbing.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/30/19 - 26917</div><div>9/30/20 - 27782</div><div>8/31/21 - 35361</div><div>9/30/21 - 33844</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 1221/2151 = 0.57</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.35 – total volume was 27% above its 34 day average</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 53/82 = 0.65</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiCaT2_snXE1DsZKb_iut880YVnZl7uEnn7O35gjbcU67ttsiIEOiUChWRPoeRQ444gmxzZbBNAy-F-l4ty7CaBbuB5j5Yy3O055NUDTQSBWGsTT6Ry7YDFq33euejN2NVKeJdERSrgg7V/s1604/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+7.19.25+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1604" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiCaT2_snXE1DsZKb_iut880YVnZl7uEnn7O35gjbcU67ttsiIEOiUChWRPoeRQ444gmxzZbBNAy-F-l4ty7CaBbuB5j5Yy3O055NUDTQSBWGsTT6Ry7YDFq33euejN2NVKeJdERSrgg7V/w400-h224/Screen+Shot+2021-09-30+at+7.19.25+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, October 1, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,326.46 +482.54 (+1.43%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,357.04 +49.50 (+1.15%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,566.70 +118.12 (+0.82%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,241.63+37.26 (+1.69%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 33931, up 87 points, and immediately shot up to 34117, up 273. From there it fell, landing at 33786 before and after 10:30. Then there was a more or less steady climb that reached the hi of 34491, up 647 at 3:15. But from there it fell 164 points into the close. Contra the 483 point gain, the hi and lo were off by 67 and 48 points, respectively. The span was 705 points, 19 under yesterday's. </div><div> </div><div>This is a nice gain, but the close is still 64 points lower than Wednesday's, and 735 points under Monday's hi. So the Index is, at best, treading water, and the short term trend is still down.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 opened positive, had a brief excursion into negative territory then rose until late in the day, when is slumped like the DJI. Its hi and lo were lower by 7 and 18 points. The close is only about 4 points above Tuesday's and 86 below Monday's.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ followed a similar path. Its hi and lo were lower by 26 and 120 points. The close is 20 points above Tuesday's and 400 under Monday's</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 had an outside day with the hi higher by 12 points and the lo lower by 7. It was the day's big gainer. But its close was only 12 points above Tuesday's and 40 under Monday's.</div><div><br /></div><div>The net of all this is just another zig in the ongoing medium sideways trajectory, and the short term trend down. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly Changes -</u></b></div><div>DJI30 -1.36%</div><div>SP500 -2.21%</div><div>NASDAQ -3.20%</div><div>Russell 2000 -0.29%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings -</u></b></div><div>10/01/19 - 26573</div><div>10/01/20 - 27817</div><div>9/01/21 - 35313</div><div>10/01/21 - 34326</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> – </div><div>A/D = 2340/1001 = 2.34</div><div>A/D Vol = 3.98</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 91/79 = 1.15</div><div><br /></div></div></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5ugcX6AiOQnc_Al1FlL0CnwhRB4M3tgVlx-nIRU-9RhME63-1vFSUqHZEGsHo_HjJeqo0-_g2NqQgglyT-KAh4yNNkEOg-YCpYW3WfIfsDjw6H3Zg-ILaWqO6R92PN0zR72LHlzns3BC/s1630/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.56.28+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="912" data-original-width="1630" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR5ugcX6AiOQnc_Al1FlL0CnwhRB4M3tgVlx-nIRU-9RhME63-1vFSUqHZEGsHo_HjJeqo0-_g2NqQgglyT-KAh4yNNkEOg-YCpYW3WfIfsDjw6H3Zg-ILaWqO6R92PN0zR72LHlzns3BC/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-10-01+at+7.56.28+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span><br /></div></div></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-68211460108386146792021-09-20T20:52:00.004-04:002021-09-24T18:35:04.699-04:00Taking Stock - Week of September 20, 2021<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, September 20, 2021</u></b></span></p><p><span style="color: red; font-family: georgia;"><b>Red Arrow Down, Down, Down</b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">33,970.47 -614.41 (-1.78%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 Index --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,357.73 -75.26 (-1.70%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ Index --- <b><span style="color: red;">14,713.90 -330.06 (-2.19%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell 2000 Index --- <b><span style="color: red;">2,182.20 -54.67 (-2.44%)</span></b></span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI opened at 34469, gapping down by 160 points. It immediately fell to 33988, off 598. It then went sideways, between that level and 34215 until about noon, when it broke lower, hitting bottom, 33613, off 972, about 3:15. From there it rose over 300 points into the close. At the lo, it was only 87 points above the support level at 33526.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This is about as clearly a down day as you can ever imagine, with the hi lower by 320 points, and the lo lower by a stunning 907. The span was 847 points, the largest this year.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">On Friday I said, ”But if subwave iii of 3 down is starting, the magnitude of the drop next week could be breath-taking.” And now, this certainly does look like that kind of 3rd wave action. I chose the DJI for that comment because the wave form was clearest in that Index. The recovery in the last hour might be all or part of subwave iv. When that is completed, we can expect a further drop in the next couple days.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">All the indexes had similar contours. The SP500 also hit bottom around 3:15, just like the DJI. It was clearly down by 69 and 122 points.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ also hit its lo around 3:15, and finished with a larger percentage loss. It was clearly down by 39 and 48 points.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 also hit its lo around 3:15. I had a clearly down day by 8 and 65 points. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">This entire year has been spent in elevated territory never before visited by any of the indexes. Many pundits and analysts have been giving fundamental and technical reasons why the markets are due for some sort of a pull back. The Elliott wave analysis I'm aware of has been calling for a rather dramatic drop, followed by another surge to new highs over the next year or two. After that, there will either be a crash or doldrum lasting for several years. Whichever way that plays out, returns from equities will be then either flat or down during that time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">If you believe in reversion to mean, you'll realize that this is inevitable. After the crash of 1929, the DJI didn't recover to it's pre-crash high until 1954 – 25 long years of depression and war.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: georgia;">NYSE internals were extremely weak on very high volume</span></p><br /><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -<br />DJI30 -1.78%<br />SP500 -1.79%<br />NASDAQ -2.19%<br />Russell -2.44%<br /><br /><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -<br />9/17/19 - 26926<br />9/17/20 - 27657<br />8/20/21 - 35120<br />9/20/21 - 33970<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -<br />A/D = 532/2798 = 0.19<br />A/D Vol = 0.11<br /><div>New Hi/Lo = 15/88 = 0.17</div><div><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJgV9MRFBHKMK4hJ738qVM-q3BqcBwolhEZ-QToEjIJnR0M7DOH5h6wAAOo0j4I7WboPEnhWD25IfcR5U2dZSG-GeuJEaFkKAB5Cmv9MmSWIxmxgDBwW6mHb9A9Vj55ZeWIFMxF4N0F9s/s1630/Screen+Shot+2021-09-20+at+8.39.25+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="876" data-original-width="1630" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJgV9MRFBHKMK4hJ738qVM-q3BqcBwolhEZ-QToEjIJnR0M7DOH5h6wAAOo0j4I7WboPEnhWD25IfcR5U2dZSG-GeuJEaFkKAB5Cmv9MmSWIxmxgDBwW6mHb9A9Vj55ZeWIFMxF4N0F9s/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-09-20+at+8.39.25+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Tuesday, September 21, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">33,919.84 -50.63 (-0.15%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,354.19 -3.54 (-0.08%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;"> 14,746.40 +32.49 (+0.22%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell200 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2186.18 +3.98 (+0.18%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34025.61, up 55 points, and within 20 minutes reached the day's hi of 34314, up 343. It hit near the low, 33914, off 56 points at 11:00, 2:30, and at the close. This is an inside day with the hi lower by 146 points, and the lo higher by 301. The span was 400 points. At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had an almost identical contour, touching near it's lo of 4348 at 11:00, 2:30 and the close. This is an inside day by 8 points at the top and 42 at the bottom. At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had a roughly similar contour, but only touched negative territory at its 11:00 low. It had a clearly up day by 5 points at the top and 166 at the bottom. At yesterday's lo, it was off more than 5%, and finished above that level today. It was today's strongest performer.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 was most similar to the NASDAQ , touching negative territory only once near 11:00. But it had an inside day by 31 points at the top and 17 at the bottom. It has been bouncing around its 5% off level for weeks. It dipped within 31 points of being 10% off at yesterday's lo.</div><div><br /></div><div>Every index hit its daily high early in the session, and after that, motion was sideways to down for the rest of the session. They are all running below their 55 day EMAs.</div><div><br /></div><div>I suspect the rise at the end yesterday, and the continuing sideways motion today, are parts of subwave iv of wave 3 down. If this is correct, subwave v down is still ahead of us, and we can expect another leg lower before the end of the week. This also suggests a future counter-current wave 4 up at the next higher level of trend, followed by wave 5 down. It's tough to determine exactly which level of trend is being observed in real time; so there is lot of uncertainty in the short term. Either way, though, it suggests that the indexes have not reached their local bottoms.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/20/19 - 26935</div><div>9/21/20 - 27148</div><div>8/20/21 - 35120</div><div>9/21/21 - 33920</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 1782/1473 = 1.21</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.98</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 38/46 = 0.83</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgutv3NuHiG7xVBDQLOxLstUw2UrSRMcA-RUV3Z_tFAOntmU98eMVBP4WaqHo8pE_JbA4FGLhwU0foUkm4reBOqyy7FTVdvxJPL0e5U6gPiLGtQ5RPKU7zrx6GqTJSXN6WCEh-OoR52-nwy/s1614/Screen+Shot+2021-09-21+at+6.47.54+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1614" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgutv3NuHiG7xVBDQLOxLstUw2UrSRMcA-RUV3Z_tFAOntmU98eMVBP4WaqHo8pE_JbA4FGLhwU0foUkm4reBOqyy7FTVdvxJPL0e5U6gPiLGtQ5RPKU7zrx6GqTJSXN6WCEh-OoR52-nwy/w400-h215/Screen+Shot+2021-09-21+at+6.47.54+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Wednesday, September 22, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,258.32 +338.48 (+1.00%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,395.64 +41.45 (+0.95%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">14,896.85 +150.45 (+1.02%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,218.56 +32.38 (+1.48%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34007, up 87 points and continued climbing, reaching a hi of 34419, up 500 before noon. It then ran mostly sideways, hitting the day's hi, 34440, at 2:15. From there it dropped to 34215 before 3:00. It rose back to 34410 before 3:30, then dropped 152 points into the close. This was a clearly up day by 127 points at the top and 93 at the bottom. The span was 434.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a nearly identical contour. It had a clearly up day by 22 and 19 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>As did the NASDAQ, with a smaller fall off at the end. It had a clearly up day by 103 and 71 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 was most similar to the NASDAQ, and had the day's largest gain. It was clearly up by 32 and 15 points. </div><div><br /></div><div>An up day is a lot more fun than a down day. But util the indexes climb back above their local highs from earlier this month the trend is, at best, sideways. The indexes achieved their highs late in the day, but could not hold them. The droops into the close are not comforting.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/20/19 - 26935</div><div>9/22/20 - 27288</div><div>8/20/21 - 35120</div><div>9/22/21 - 34258</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 2679/673 = 3.98</div><div>A/D Vol = 5.57</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 68/25 = 2.72</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn__2Y5nTSoheZc039UB-lBg6l2HSIp7NWV62jGjkuTyy9xFZgbZT19CtomXAZYPKXJjtD23Zpoggd-QzomIhp7rRMiBwl00rDDOeZ_QNpSpCirpd-EHwGdQ0eGHDpGJrAVXZRrJoHbxkn/s1778/Screen+Shot+2021-09-22+at+10.06.00+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="1778" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn__2Y5nTSoheZc039UB-lBg6l2HSIp7NWV62jGjkuTyy9xFZgbZT19CtomXAZYPKXJjtD23Zpoggd-QzomIhp7rRMiBwl00rDDOeZ_QNpSpCirpd-EHwGdQ0eGHDpGJrAVXZRrJoHbxkn/w400-h220/Screen+Shot+2021-09-22+at+10.06.00+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Thursday, September 23, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #38761d;">Green Arrow Up</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,764.82 +506.50 (+1.48%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,448.98 +53.34 (+1.21%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">15,052.24 +155.40 (+1.04%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">2,259.04 +40.48 (+1.82%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJIl opened at 34296, up 38 points, and at 10:00 reached 34740, up 482. After that, it climbed more slowly, reaching the hi of 34880, up 621, at 2:00. From there it was a 115 point slide into the close. This is a clearly up day by 439 points at the top and 289 at the bottom. The span was 583.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a nearly identical contour, but a smaller gain. It had a clearly up day by 49 and 39 points,</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ was roughly similar, with a still smaller gain. It was clearly up by 135 and 167 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 had similar contour, but with a steeper rise into its 2:00 high, and wound up with the day's largest gain.</div><div><br /></div><div>The gains yesterday and today have brought the indexes about back to where there were from 9/14 to 9/16. They are still below their recent highs. Unless those highs are exceeded, the man thrust might still be down.</div><div><br /></div><div>A break below the recent lows would confirm that the decline is continuing.</div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/23/19 - 26950</div><div>9/23/20 - 26763</div><div>8/23/21 - 35336</div><div>9/23/21 - 34765</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 2139/1133 = 1.89</div><div>A/D Vol = 4.21</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 102/33 = 3.09</div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEnnabT0oNKMoni2ifsAaZrxKgS4J8WbtnC5TA1uL3_qXM7Krvt70ItdNptwx_3MIN2z7dGK3QnGOVza58g6Yef22CLRQ_fup2s0c2ceruAcW_aemxbqAYxbNw5DZi9ug3psBZvxF3e2AM/s1624/Screen+Shot+2021-09-23+at+9.10.56+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="916" data-original-width="1624" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEnnabT0oNKMoni2ifsAaZrxKgS4J8WbtnC5TA1uL3_qXM7Krvt70ItdNptwx_3MIN2z7dGK3QnGOVza58g6Yef22CLRQ_fup2s0c2ceruAcW_aemxbqAYxbNw5DZi9ug3psBZvxF3e2AM/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-09-23+at+9.10.56+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Friday, September 24, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">34,798.00 +33.18 (+0.10%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,455.48 +6.50 (+0.15%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>NASDAQ --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">15,047.70 -4.54 (-0.03%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>Russell 2000 --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">2,248.07 -10.97 (-0.49%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34762, off 3 points, immediately fell to 34648, off 117, and rebounded near 34850, up about 85, at 10:00. It then meandered around neutral, near the middle of that range, until after 2:00 when it started rising. It exceeded that range briefly in the closing moments, reaching 34857, up 92, before falling 59 points into the close on a small volume surge.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is an inside day, by 23 points at the top and 352 at the bottom. The span was a modest 209.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a similar contour. It also had an inside day by 2 points at the top and 24 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ started negative and climbed most of the day, briefly going green after 3:30. It then slid 33 points into the close, for a very small loss. It had an inside day by 18 points at the top and 14 points at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>Except for a brief bump above neutral around noon, the Russell 2000 spent the entire day in the red, finishing with a loss of almost a half percent. It also had an inside day, by 18 points at he top and 14 at the bottom.</div><div><br /></div><div>An inside day gets a yellow arrow by definition. Small changes validate this conclusion. Over the last several day, with a lot of gyrations, markets have gone nowhere. </div><div><br /></div><div>Today's sideways motion is counter-current. But at what level of trend? Is it a pause in the increases of the last two days, or part of consolidation in the down-slope from the local highs earlier this month? It's very difficult to tell, so we'll need to see which way it goes next week. I know this is not helpful, but it's where we are. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly % Changes</u></b> -</div><div>DJI30 +0.62%</div><div>SP500 +0.51%</div><div>NASDAQ + 0.02%</div><div>Russell +0.50%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings </u></b>-</div><div>9/24/19 - 26808</div><div>9/24/20 - 26815</div><div>8/24/21 - 35366</div><div>9/24/21 - 34798</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 1349/1927 = 0.70</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.82</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 78/44 = 1.77</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5wcOqUxTDTgunciEB0BoLOh3yy1_kKeraolFcRyD6QVg5KTr9j0PsCDShouUApUpgrVdRafgRzc87Q8sW9VTb-s1RbIqVK_EkXrkh8giTQv_nRRtobiNT9VvjIfsoU2f1HKAzg1jnWf5h/s1622/Screen+Shot+2021-09-24+at+6.30.00+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1622" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5wcOqUxTDTgunciEB0BoLOh3yy1_kKeraolFcRyD6QVg5KTr9j0PsCDShouUApUpgrVdRafgRzc87Q8sW9VTb-s1RbIqVK_EkXrkh8giTQv_nRRtobiNT9VvjIfsoU2f1HKAzg1jnWf5h/w400-h219/Screen+Shot+2021-09-24+at+6.30.00+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4290163255778893789.post-47579651861369422112021-09-13T22:29:00.007-04:002021-09-17T19:19:04.704-04:00Taking Stock - Week of September 13, 2021<span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Monday, September 13, 2021</u></b><br /><br />DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,869.63 +261.91 (+0.76%)</span></b><br /><br /></span><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 Index --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,468.73 +10.15 (+0.23%)</span></b><br /><br />The DJI opened at 34665.5, up 58 points, and chopped up to the day's hi, 34039, up 331 at 10:45. It slid to the lo, 34665, up 58, at 2:15, ran mostly sideways for most of an hour, then rose into the close with a late volume surge.<br /><br />This was an inside day, with the hi lower by 165 points, and the lo higher by 66. The spread was 274 points, 231 points smaller than Friday's.<br /><br />The SP500 had a similar contour, at a lower pitch, dipped into the red in the afternoon, and finished with a smaller gain, also on increased volume. Despite the small gain, it had a mixed day with the hi lower by 27 points, and the lo lower by 12.<br /><br />The NASDAQ started positive and quickly dropped into the red. It meandered in a mostly negative range for the rest of the day and finished with a small loss, climbing at the end on increased vollume. But it had a clearly down day by the substantial margins of 134 points at the top and 80 at the bottom<br /><br />The Russell 2000 started positive, had a brief excursion into the red, then ran positive to end with a gain of over a half percent. Like the SP500, it had a mixed day with the hi lower by 19 points, and the lo lower by 10. <br /><br />It's hard to know what to make of a day like this with a lack of coordination among the indexes. They are all below their recent highs, but well above their 8/19 lows. But only the NASDAQ remains above its trend line from the 3/23/20 low. This action looks like continuing consolidation; it really is several days of going nowhere. But – is it in preparation for the next leg up, or the prelude to a significant correction?<br /><br /><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -<br />DJI30 +0.76%<br />SP500 +0.23%<br />NASDAQ -0.07%<br />Russell +0.59%<br /><br /><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -<br />9/10/19 - 26909<br />9/10/20 - 27535<br />8/10/21 - 35265<br />9/10/21 - 34608<br /><br /><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -<br />A/D = 2066/1234 = 1.67<br />A/D Vol = 2.37<br />New Hi/Lo = 88/36 = 2.44</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSEs62Dar7adiB52qp9o5KuMan-2qIc2dvfG-54af5ZdX9epQu28wiBvElUbp5vLvGXX1qnFrSo1i0w_XN9olYGuyE7jgsKVG3NaL6a-4DKWnuWhuof-AuyRqx-uXh3amG_vJMgJPgiW9T/s1626/Screen+Shot+2021-09-13+at+6.52.12+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="908" data-original-width="1626" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSEs62Dar7adiB52qp9o5KuMan-2qIc2dvfG-54af5ZdX9epQu28wiBvElUbp5vLvGXX1qnFrSo1i0w_XN9olYGuyE7jgsKVG3NaL6a-4DKWnuWhuof-AuyRqx-uXh3amG_vJMgJPgiW9T/w400-h225/Screen+Shot+2021-09-13+at+6.52.12+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Tuesday, September 14, 2021</u></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="color: red; font-family: georgia;"><b>Red Arrow Down</b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,577.57 -292.06 (-0.84%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 Index --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,443.05 -25.68 (-0.57%)</span></b></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The DJI opened at 34907, up 37 points, and a few minutes later reached the day's hi of 34990, up 121. From there it slid to the close in 3 steps, landing 67 points above the lo which occurred only a few minutes earlier, for a 292 point loss. This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 51 points and the lo lower by 155. The index broke below its 55 day EMA, and looks like it might be heading straight down.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The SP500 had a clearly down day, by 7 points at the top and 10 at the bottom. Its contour was roughly similar to the DJI's, with three bumpier steps down, and the lo just a few minutes before the close. Its trajectory now also looks like it is heading down. But it is still above its 55 day EMA.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The NASDAQ started positive and had another brief excursion into the green at noon before sliding into the day's lo at 3:30. It had a clearly down day by 34 and 22 points. It's still above its 55 day EMA, and slightly above its trend line from the 3/23/20 low.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">The Russell 2000 had an outside day, up 5 points at the top, and down 13 at the bottom. It started positive, but quickly fell negative and had a similar downward downward sweep as the NASDAQ, hitting bottom after 3:30. It'</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">s below its 55 day EMA, and only about 50 points above the top of its resistance band.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">This all looks bad and feels bad, but the indexes are still well above recent lows. There have been sharp mid-month lows in most of the Indexes in May, June, July and August. So maybe the current action is just continuing that trend. The rest of this week should tell us where we are heading. But NYSE internals were very week today, and that does not bode well. I'm DRIPping my portfolio of hi dividend paying stocks, and unless it looks like the end of the world, my plan is to ride it out.</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">DJI30 -0.57%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">SP500 -0.84%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">NASDAQ -0.45%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">Russell -1.37%</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">9/13/19 - 27220</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">9/14/20 - 27993</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">8/13/21 - 35515</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">9/14/21 - 34578</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">A/D = 1022/2288 = 0.45</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">A/D Vol = 0.28</span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;">New Hi/Lo = 67/56 = 1.2</span></div></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0VTvrV6TjXOd5pnMTqrumDBcaUNR25WoeeJCpHiQhKV2m3Ev2s24HFFI1JSTl4fTd_k6yGZ1vxu8xEsSGy5RG1awfSHWb3GiuidHHPuQsb07wp5U8c_BuwGGLVbDZuZ1uBWpnR3sSWPIP/s1614/Screen+Shot+2021-09-14+at+6.33.44+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="896" data-original-width="1614" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0VTvrV6TjXOd5pnMTqrumDBcaUNR25WoeeJCpHiQhKV2m3Ev2s24HFFI1JSTl4fTd_k6yGZ1vxu8xEsSGy5RG1awfSHWb3GiuidHHPuQsb07wp5U8c_BuwGGLVbDZuZ1uBWpnR3sSWPIP/w400-h224/Screen+Shot+2021-09-14+at+6.33.44+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Wednesday, September 15, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="color: #38761d;"><b>Greenish Arrow Upish</b></span></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 at the close --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">34,814.39 +236.82 (+0.68%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 --- <b><span style="color: #38761d;">4,480.70 +37.65 (+0.85%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34581, up 3 points, and in the next few minutes fell to 34522, off 56. Evidently this completed a wave down as some small level of trend. The Index then rose, reaching 34715, up 137 after 10:00. After drawing back to 34590, up 12, the Index took off, reaching the hi of 34881, up 303, at 1:45. From there it meandered into the close, 66 points under the high.</div><div><br /></div><div>This is, somewhat surprisingly, an inside day, with the high lower by 110 points, and the lo higher by 12. The span was 359 points, 121 points less than yesterday's. So this is really going nowhere. Today's close is 55 points under Monday's.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a clearly up day by the small margins of 1 and 3 points. It stepped higher the entire session, ending 6 points under the hi. This is the highest close in a week, but still under all the closes from 8/27 to 9/09. So – is this Index going anywhere? We need more data to decide.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ slogged along slightly in the red until a move up before 1:00. It then climbed to the hi after 3:30, 13 points above the close. The lo was right at the trend line from the 3/23/20 lo.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 had an inside day with the hi lower by 13 points and the lo higher by 3. It had a choppy ride with a steady upward slant. Except for Friday's and yesterdays, today's hi was the lowest since 8/24.</div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes are, at best, going nowhere; and possibly in decline. Today approximately undid yesterday's losses, netting out to no meaningful information so far this week. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -</div><div>DJI30 +0.85%</div><div>SP500 +0.68%</div><div>NASDAQ +0.82%</div><div>Russell +1.11%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/13/19 - 27220</div><div>9/15/20 - 27996</div><div>8/13/21 - 35515</div><div>9/15/21 - 34814</div><div><br /></div><div><u>NYSE Internals</u> -</div><div>A/D = 2292/1005 = 2.28</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.6</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 74/48 = 1.54</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF9kw3sKkS2jlZpUY3RWFhFdViZntS2fP7p883rF6475wd-U1wibMg74EPG9N4CAdWeC1HSbOQOqvGG2F6__PlDiAleAdW7xrpNurkXMddH0oALM8DtxPe7wcoCbTrjfDboornXlYPd83f/s1632/Screen+Shot+2021-09-15+at+6.56.57+PM.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="858" data-original-width="1632" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiF9kw3sKkS2jlZpUY3RWFhFdViZntS2fP7p883rF6475wd-U1wibMg74EPG9N4CAdWeC1HSbOQOqvGG2F6__PlDiAleAdW7xrpNurkXMddH0oALM8DtxPe7wcoCbTrjfDboornXlYPd83f/w400-h210/Screen+Shot+2021-09-15+at+6.56.57+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><div><b><u>Thursday, September 16, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: #bf9000;">Yellow Arrow Sideways</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 index at the close --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">34,751.32 -63.07 (-0.18%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 Index --- <b><span style="color: #bf9000;">4,473.75 -6.95 (-0.16%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34810, off 4 points, and immediately jumped to 34944, up 129. From there it was a hard tumble, hitting the lo of 34540 before 11:00. It then climbed irregularly, reaching 34850, up 36, after 3:00. But then it slid 99 points for a 63 point loss. This is a mixed day with the hi and lo higher by 63 and 18 points, respectively. The span was 403 points.</div><div><br /></div><div>All the indexes has roughly similar contours with a mid-morning low followed by a climb into the late afternoon. The SP500 had an inside day, with the hi lower by 1 point, and the lo higher by 5. It finished with a small loss. This is the 3rd straight day of topping out within a point of 4486. Could that be a resistance level.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ had a clearly up day by 31 and 64 points, and managed to stay positive at the end.</div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 had an inside day with the hi lower by 13 points, and the lo higher by 3. It was not able to hold its late afternoon hi, and finished with a small negative.</div><div><br /></div><div>All the daily changes were less than 0.2% This all continues the trend of going nowhere. The week's aimless volatility is attributed to options exposure tomorrow. We'll see.</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -</div><div>DJI30 -0.18%</div><div>SP500 -0.16%</div><div>NASDAQ +0.13%</div><div>Russell -0.07%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/13/19 - 27220</div><div>9/15/20 - 27996</div><div>8/13/21 - 35515</div><div>9/15/21 - 34814</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 2292/1005 = 2.28</div><div>A/D Vol = 2.6</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 74/48 = 1.54</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi15toHpflXHlphh4RsWlnIYbrKwAE6rT8E7OPPOOO0q7LJgLup369QryT2sOQMh6l96_AF-yd3gUp0rtGeKF6ILc_hFPEZBY27udyemA8-HXMtBFO2E8sKzWDQWKnnRNpePn3apo2v7Ln/s1774/Screen+Shot+2021-09-16+at+8.27.24+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="962" data-original-width="1774" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgi15toHpflXHlphh4RsWlnIYbrKwAE6rT8E7OPPOOO0q7LJgLup369QryT2sOQMh6l96_AF-yd3gUp0rtGeKF6ILc_hFPEZBY27udyemA8-HXMtBFO2E8sKzWDQWKnnRNpePn3apo2v7Ln/w400-h217/Screen+Shot+2021-09-16+at+8.27.24+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><div><b><u>Friday, September 17, 2021</u></b></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="color: red;">Red Arrow Down</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>DJI30 Index at the close --- <b><span style="color: red;">34,584.88 -166.44 (-0.48%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>SP500 Index --- <b><span style="color: red;">4,432.99 -40.76 (-0.91%)</span></b></div><div><br /></div><div>The DJI opened at 34738, off 13 points, and slid to a lo of 34520, off 232 at 11:30. It bounced up from there at noon, reaching 34660, off 91 after 12:30. It slid again to 34520 again before 2:00, then galumphed sideways into the close, about 68 points higher. This is a clearly down day by 164 points at the top, but only 20 at the bottom. The span was 260. It broke below its 55 day EMA a few days ago, and now is about to drag the 13 day EMA along with it.</div><div><br /></div><div>Coming off the 8/16 hi, this looks like the Index has experienced wave 1 down, wave 2 up to a lower hi at 35511 on 8/30, then sub waves I and ii of wave 3 down. If subwave ii is continuing, then we will get still more sideways motion into next week. But if subwave iii of 3 down is starting, the magnitude of the drop next week could be breath-taking. I'm no Elliott wave expert, and would very much like to be wrong about this. But I don't see any other way to read these tea leaves. A 5% decline off the 8/16 hi would land at 33850. A 10% decline would land at 32068. Red line support in the chart is at 33526, not far from the 5% level. A lower support line [not show] is at 31580, far under the 10% line.</div><div><br /></div><div>The SP500 had a similar contour and clearly down day by 14 and 16 points. The wave structure is less clear, but the Index is clearly heading down. It's only marginally above its 55 day EMA. A 5% decline off its 9/02 hi would land at 4319. A 10% decline would land at 4091. These values are close to the the red support lines on the SP500 chart. See the chart in yesterday's update. It the DJI falls hard, I don't see how the SP500 can resist following.</div><div><br /></div><div>The NASDAQ also had a similar daily contour, and also appears to headed down on a larger scale. It is still about 175 points above it 55 day EMA, and this week's lows are right along the trend line from the 3/23/20 lo. A 5% decline from the 9/07 hi would land at 14633; 10% would land at 13863. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Russell 2000 touched positive territory 3 times: at the start, just before 1:00, and again for a 4 point gain at the close. This is an inside day by 2 and 3 points, and a more explicitly sideways move than the other indexes had. The 5% loss level from the 3/15 hi is 2242. The Index has dropped below that level several times, and is a couple points under that level today. The 10% level is at 2124, near the bottom of the support region on its chart.</div><div><br /></div><div>This week's strongest showing was a pretty tepid upside move on Wednesday. Everything looks pointed down from here. Pretty poor way to end the week.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><div>This was a triple witching day, so NYSE volume was about 31/2 time the recent average. Internals were quite weak. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Weekly % Changes</u></b> – not much</div><div>DJI30 -0.06%</div><div>SP500 -0.06%</div><div>NASDAQ +0.13%</div><div>Russell -0.07%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Daily % Changes</u></b> -</div><div>DJI30 -0.48%</div><div>SP500 -0.91%</div><div>NASDAQ -0.91%</div><div>Russell +0.18%</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>DJI Closings</u></b> -</div><div>9/17/19 - 27095</div><div>9/17/20 - 27902</div><div>8/17/21 - 35343</div><div>9/17/21 - 34587</div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>NYSE Internals</u></b> -</div><div>A/D = 1190/2085 = 0.57</div><div>A/D Vol = 0.46</div><div>New Hi/Lo = 77/30 = 2.57</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRBIbwA2d3u572xxaXVzClGej7urGj9VuYhqt4jZ1nGhm0TIsMHxXwTkT0O0tOA_FUDBeczMoqYql4n9FzFtPZNJmp-PCpdhR98M6OJ4T5_ZAoAJRM66zDFh8-MQRHyZrsPtwim6OYfoHM/s1618/Screen+Shot+2021-09-17+at+7.03.09+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="874" data-original-width="1618" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRBIbwA2d3u572xxaXVzClGej7urGj9VuYhqt4jZ1nGhm0TIsMHxXwTkT0O0tOA_FUDBeczMoqYql4n9FzFtPZNJmp-PCpdhR98M6OJ4T5_ZAoAJRM66zDFh8-MQRHyZrsPtwim6OYfoHM/w400-h216/Screen+Shot+2021-09-17+at+7.03.09+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></div>Jazzbumpahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.com0