Look: I am eager to learn stuff I don't know--which requires actively courting and posting smart disagreement.

But as you will understand, I don't like to post things that mischaracterize and are aimed to mislead.

-- Brad Delong

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Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of January 11, 2021

Monday January 11, 2021


Yellow Arrow Sideways


DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,008.69   -89.28 (-0.29%)


The index opened at 31015, off 81 points, and immediately dropped to 30832, off 264.  There was a stepwise increase to the hi of 31097, a half point positive after 1:00.  It slipped to about 30970 before 2:30.  There was a rebound to about 31070 at 3:00 followed by a jagged slide into the close.


Except for a few moments near 1:00, the Index was in the red all day.  But, it’s an inside day, with the hi lower by 44 points, and the lo higher by 88.  Plus a change of only 0.29% occurred, so a yellow arrow is appropriate.


Momentum lags a bit, and is not the effect of a single day, or a small number of days.  The smallest period I look at is 5 days, and the Index is certainly up over that span.  So, today, momentum went up again, and by the largest single day amount since mid-November. Seems odd for a flat to down day, but that is how it works out.  Still, in the grand scheme of things, it’s a small blip on the larger sideways move.

All the indexes has roughly similar contours today, and all wound up negative.


% Changes -

DJI30  -0.29% 

SP500 -0.66%   

NASDAQ  -1.25%    

Russell 2000 -0.03% 


DJI30 Closings -

01/11/19 - 23996 

01/10/20 - 28824

12/07/20 - 30046

01/07/21 - 31009


NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1259/1859 = 0.68

A/D Vol = 1.07

New Hi/Lo = 183/5 = 36.60




Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,068.69   +60.00 (+0.19%)

The Index opened at 31015, up 6 points. Within minutes it reached a hi of 31044, up 35 and a lo of 30927, off 82.  It climbed up to 31101, up 92 after 11:00, then dropped to the day’s lo of 30889, off 120 at 12:15.  From there it was a choppy rise to 31115, the day’s hi, just 2 minutes before dropping 46 points into the close.

This is a clearly up day - though by rather trivial amounts.  Today’s hi and lo are up by 18 and 57 points, respectively, and it missed being an inside day by those mere 18 points. Today’s increase is not quite enough to neutralize yesterday’s small loss.  The span was 226 points.

Momentum climbed a bit again today, but by less than it did yesterday.  Despite the flatness this week, the Index did close 677 points above where it was last Tuesday.

% Changes -
DJI30  +0.19% 
SP500 -0.04%   
NASDAQ  +0.28%    
Russell 2000 +1.77% 

DJI30 Closings -
01/11/19 - 23996 
01/10/20 - 28824
12/11/20 - 30046
01/12/21 - 31069

NYSE Internals
A/D =  2112/1049 = 2.01
A/D Vol = 3.10
New Hi/Lo = 354/11 = 32.18



Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,060.47   -8.22 (-0.03%)

The Index opened at 31085, up 16 points.  It quickly rose to 31105, up 36, then dropped to 30992, off 77 after 10:00  It then oscillated in a narrowing wedge until 12:15, when it  shot up from about 31030, hitting 31149 about 45 minutes later.   It stayed above 31100 until 3:00, hitting the hi of 31153 at 2:45. It then dropped to about 31060 at 3:30.  It climbed up to about 31110, then fell back about 50 points to the close.

Contra the small closing decline, the hi and lo were higher by 39 and 103 points, respectively. The span was an unusually narrow 161 points.  The 10 day average is 359.  While the hi and closing values have been hovering just below the all time highs, the lows have been increasing, and that accounts for the narrowing span.  Today’s hi missed being an all time intra-day hi by 40 points.  The close missed being an all time hi by 36.  Had the market closed at 3:45, there would have been a new all time closing hi of 31110,  But the slump in the last few minutes foreclosed that possibility.

After last week’s 490 point gain, the index is now in suspended animation.  Momentum increased again today, but by only a tiny margin, and might be topping.
 
% Changes -
DJI30  -0.03% 
SP500 +0.23%   
NASDAQ  +0.43%    
Russell 2000 -0.75% 

DJI30 Closings -
01/11/19 - 23996 
01/13/20 - 28907
12/11/20 - 30046
01/12/21 - 31060

NYSE Internals
A/D =  1670/1496 = 1.12
A/D Vol = 0.73

New Hi/Lo = 278/2 = 139.00



Thursday, January 14, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   —-   30,991.52   -68.95 (-0.22%)

The index opened at 31086, up 25 points, and in the first 10 minutes reached 31224, up 163, and another new all time intra-day hi.  From there, it was a slow choppy decline, hitting 31150 at 2:00.  Then the fall steepened, hitting 31115 after 3:15.   After a bounce to 31075 at 3:30 there was a hard fall into the close, just 9 points above the 3:57 lo.

This is an outside day, by rather modest margins, 70 points at the hi end and 10 points at the lo end.  The span was 242.  What can we make of a session that starts with a marginal new hi [30 points over the 1/07 hi] then slides 242 points over the rest of day?

Momentum took a minuscule downturn today.

% Changes -
DJI30  -0.22% 
SP500 -0.38%   
NASDAQ  -0.12%    
Russell 2000 +2.05% 

DJI30 Closings -
01/14/19 - 23910 
01/14/20 - 28940
12/14/20 - 29862
01/12/21 - 30992

NYSE Internals
A/D =  2202/968 = 2.27
A/D Vol = 2.81

New Hi/Lo = 350/3 = 116.67











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