Absent a miracle, Europe is sliding into a recession. This will affect Germany as much as the weaker countries, even more considering its dependence on Eurozone exports. (Germany suffered an exceptionally sharp contraction post-Lehman too.) The result will be a risk of debt deflation in all markets. The sovereign debtors will again face default as public revenue dries up. Speculative assets like real estate will resume their decline. Overleveraged financial institutions—and Europe is the world leader in overleveraged finance—will need to be bailed out.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Saturday Hopeless Blogging
European style, via Peter Dorfman.