Can't say off the top of my head if I've ever given Mish a H/T. He get's one today for this vid.
Here is an older version the ECRI leading indicator graph that flashed by pretty quickly in the Vid. The last couple of years aren't shown, but if you were sharp-eyed, you saw the downward trend since the anemic post-trough peak.
Mish goes on to riff a bit on ECRI's many imperfections. So - add salt, chipotle, and other flavorings to taste.
I'm pessimistic for my own reasons, of course, and have been for a long time. GDP growth has not been in anything like recovery mode at any time in this century. Unemployment remains high, and what job growth we see is mostly in low-pay sectors. Housing prices in many places probably need to decline another 20%, at least, to reach market clearing values. Wealth disparity, wrong-headed unwillingness to tax, and lax regulations have put us into a low-to-no growth box. Private debt is a choking burden.
The Rethug controlled congress (yes, Virginia, they control the Senate too, with their filibuster-addicted, obstructionist minority) has as it's stated goal making Obama fail. Taking the country down is of no consequence to these traitorous bastards.
Thursday, November 14, 2024, Lynn Lempel
21 hours ago
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