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Monday, August 29, 2011

Monday Market Action

European markets were mostly up, and the U.S kept it going at the opening today.  The SP500 index quickly jumped up to above 1195, and is now hovering in the range of 1197-1200.  This now all appears to be within wave 4, coming off the wave 3 bottom of 1101.54 on 8/09.   I had trouble identifying that at the time, thinking subwaves within wave 3 might be continuing.  While that is still possible, hindsight now suggests that 1101.54 was the end of wave 3, and the start of wave 4.   Wave 2 was a pretty simple zig-zag from 6/16 to 7/07, so a more complexly structured wave 4 is to be expected.

On 8/15, I imagined  a support/resistance line in the range of 1200-05.  That might be in play.  I won't have time for a chart this evening, but I will get in some more commentary.

Update:  Not a lot to add.  The index crawled up the rest of the day to end at 1210.08, against flagging momentum.  This is the highest value since 8/05.  

Possible retracement values of the entire wave three drop would be as follows:

Clearly, the .33 and .382 landmarks are out of play.  For now, 1223.5 is a possibility.  Even 1252 is not out of the question.  That's about it, though.  Wave 1 ended at 1258.07, and per Elliott rules, wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1.

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