Oh, No! Big Ben let us all down. His ho-hum 10:00 EDT speech caused the markets to fall. Never mind that the SP500 gapped down at the opening and made a big spike up - 14 points or so, as of 10:35 - that started shortly after 10:00. As I said yesterday, people get paid to make this stuff up. Anyway, the surge of the last several minutes is counter-current, and the move down from yesterday's opening looks very much like an impulse. All of that, and more, should be given back by the end of the day. I'll post a chart after closing.
Update: I highlighted a phrase from this morning's start to this post, because it was so spectacularly wrong. I live-blog the stock market as an exercise in personal humility (as if playing the trombone weren't enough.) Interestingly it seems Bernanke buoyed up the market after all. Go figure.
The SP500 made a jagged climb up to almost 1180 shortly after noon, then
broke out of its trend channel and spent the rest of the day quivering around 1175, the failed support line from 8/18, before closing at 1176.8. This is touted as the best market gain in two months. Which is rather curious, since the index has been wiggling sideways (still or again?) in a collapsing band since the 8/05 high of 1218.11 and the 8/09 low of 1101.54, without covering any new ground. Today's action was contained within the range of the previous two days.
On Tuesday, I said - "A rise above the subwave i low of 1184 calls this wave counting into
question; and if 1208 is topped, it all goes out the window." Except for a quick needle thrust to 1190 yesterday morning, this is holding, for whatever that's worth.
Anyway, here's a chart for the week, courtesy of Yahoo Finance, with my mark-ups.
The sideways motion can continue for a while, but not forever. Nothing yet is suggesting that the main direction is up, so my bearish stance continues.
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Friday, November 8, 2024, David Alfred Bywaters
17 hours ago
1 comment:
One thing I like about this series: The Elliott technique gives you a consistent way to look at the data.
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