Taking Stock - Week of April 19, 2021

Monday, April 19, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close   —-   34,077.63   -123.04 (-0.36%)

The index opened at 34182, off 18 points, and quickly dropped to 34051, off 150.  It chopped down to the low of 33981, off 220, after 12:30.  The afternoon gain was also choppy, with a 63 point rise in the last half hour.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 74 and 78 points, respectively.

The span was 202 points.  This is tepid follow-up to Friday’s all time highs, and a poor start to the week - though by rather small margins.   

Hale Stewart reports — 

“All the indexes were off; this only issue was degree. Smaller caps took the brunt of the selling, but large caps also took a modest hit.  Two defensive sectors are at the top of the list*. At the bottom are communication services, tech, and consumer discretionary - three sectors that are key for the SPY and QQQ.”

* Real Estate [slightly positive] and Health Care [slightly negative] Performed best today.

It seems that the session’s extreme - either hi or low - often occurs near mid-day.  I have no idea what that means - if anything,  At this point, it’s just an observation.  Not much more to say today.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.36% 

SP500 -0.53%   

NASDAQ  -0.98%    

Russell 2000 -1.36% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/18/19 - 26560

04/17/20 - 24242

03/19/21 - 32628

04/19/21 - 34078

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1099/2191 = 0.50

A/D Vol = 0.66

New Hi/Lo = 236/32 = 7.38

Tuesday, April 20, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 12, 2021

Monday, April 12, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-    33,745.40   -55.20 (-0.16%)

The index opened at 33775, off 26 points.  After a brief rise to 33786, off 14, it fell, hitting 33691, off 110 after 11:00.  By noon it recovered to 33770.  After 12:45 it fell again, hitting the day’s lo of 33666, off 135, after 2:00.  It stayed under 33700 until 3:30, when it was sharply rising, reaching the hi of 33786, off 14, 8 minutes before the close.

This was an inside day: minus 25 points at the hi end and plus 139 at the lo.  The span was an extraordinarily narrow 121 points, the least since 83 points on 1/17/2020 - well before last year’s crash.  If there is a positive here, it is in the day’s lo moving higher, which justifies the yellow arrow.

Last Friday there were new intra-day and closing highs.  Today was pretty uneventful. All the indexes were down a bit, and except for the SP500 which briefly went slightly positive in the early afternoon, they were all in the red all day.  DJI volume has been on the light side all month, and NYSE volume has been about 70% of normal.

It looks as if the DJI and SP500 are in third waves up from the 3/23/20 bottom, at some level of trend.  If that is right, then consolidations and brief corrections can safely be ignored, and there is still a long way to go up.  If!  The problem is the weak volume.  This does not look bullish, so the signals are mixed.

I read an article recently that graphical showed that not only is the stock market disconnected from the underlying economy, it has NEVER been connected.  I’ve repeatedly said that the market is an aspect of human emotion, and the collective behaviors of investors and speculators are, at best, semi-rational.  This is why we see extreme over and under valuations, and the occasional violent jolt.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.16% 

SP500 -0.02%   

NASDAQ  -0.36%    

Russell 2000 -0.43% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/12/19 - 26412

04/09/20 - 23719

03/12/21 - 32779

04/12/21 - 33745

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1640/1644 = 1.00  <---  how rare is this?!?

A/D Vol = 0.81

New Hi/Lo = 305/17 = 17.94

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of April 5, 2021

Monday, April 5, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,527.19   +373.98 (+1.13%)

The Index opened at 33222, up 69 points, and quickly shot up to 33475, up 322.  It continued climbing, reaching the hi of 33618, up 465 after 12:30.  It slid back, but remained above 33515, until it briefly dipped under 33500 after 3:00, then had a choppy rise into the close.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo higher by the substantial margins of 451 and 237 points, respectively.  The span was 396.  This is a great start to the week, but the SP500 and NASDAQ had even more impressive gains, up by 1.44% and 1.67%

For now, animal spirits have captured the market in a big way.  The rotation into small caps and value might have reversed, as those segments were laggards today - though almost also sectors were up.

Volume was about normal for the DJI, but quite low for the SP500, NASDAQ and NYSE.  Russell volume number was not available.

I always talk about follow through, so we’ll have to see what tomorrow brings.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.13% 

SP500 +1.44%   

NASDAQ  +1.67%    

Russell 2000 +0.49% 

DJI30 Closings -

04/05/19 - 26425

04/03/20 - 21053

03/01/21 - 31496

04/05/21 - 33527

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2095/1238 = 1.69

A/D Vol = 1.52

New Hi/Lo = 318/15 = 21.20

Tuesday, April 6, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of March 29, 2021

Monday, March 29, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   33,171.37   +98.49 (+0.30%)

The Index opened at 33088, up 15 points, and climbed to 33103, up 30 in the first few minutes.  After 10:00 it dropped, hitting 32905, the day’s lo, off 168 before 11:00.  At noon, it was back up to 33050, off 22.  After 1:00 it stayed between 31100 and 31180 until 3:30, when it moved up to the day’s hi of 33259.  From there it was an 88 point slide into the close.

I mis-spoke on Friday.  There was a new closing hi, then, by 57 points.  Today we got new intra-day and closing highs, by 31 and 98 points, respectively.  This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 160 and 224 points, respectively.  The span was 354 points.

All the indexes were down in the morning. The DJI moved into positive territory around midday and stayed positive.  The SP500 spent the afternoon snaking around neutral and slipped slightly under at the end. The NASDAQ could’t quite get above the null point and slumped in the afternoon   The Russell was dismal the entire session.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.30% 

SP500 -0.09%   

NASDAQ  -0.60%    

Russell 2000 -2.83% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/25919 - 25929

03/27/20 - 21637

02/26/21 - 30932

03/29/21 - 33171

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1092/2233 = 0.49

A/D Vol = 0.51

New Hi/Lo = 214/29 = 7.34

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Taking Stock - Weekend Edition 3/28/21

Taking Stock

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Since the market lows at the end of October last year, there have been big increases. The DJI and SP500 have tracked pretty closely, which i think is typical.  The NADAQ followed a different path, but now all three of these indexes are just about tied, near a 20% gain at almost 5 months.  They’ve all been rather flat since about mid-month.

The Russell, however, has outpaced them all over this time.  Despite taking a nose dive since 3/15, it’s still up over 40%.  It looks very toppy, though.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see it draw closer to the other indexes in the next few months.  This seems more likely to involve Russell losses than gains by the other indexes. 

But time will tell.

Taking Stock -- Week of March 22, 2021

Monday, March 22, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,730.35   +102.38 (+0.31%)

The Index opened at 32602, off 26 points, and immediately fell to 32513, off 115.  It turned abruptly and started climbing, reaching 32725, up 97 at 10:45.  It ran sideways until 1:30, when it climbed to the range of 32810 between 2:30 and 3:15.  After that it fell 79 points into the close.

No new highs today - the last new closing hi was a week ago -  but a nice recovery after Friday’s loss, despite the fall-off at the end.  This is an inside day, with the hi lower by 48 points, and the lo higher by 7.  The span was 298.  The lo not falling is a mild plus, and momentum still looks very positive..

The SP500 and NASDAQ were up by larger margins than the DJI, but the Russell was in the red all day, and finished off almost a percent.

After advances Friday and today, the NASDAQ has gained back almost half of its loss since the 2/12 hi.  But momentum is still down, and the index doesn’t look strong to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it turn back lower this week.

If the NADAQ is up today, it seems the Russell 2000 must be down.  It had strong momentum from the beginning of November through February.  It’s now horizontal.  Is this a pause, like in last September-October, or a top?  Time will tell.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.32% 

SP500 +0.70%   

NASDAQ  +1.23%    

Russell 2000 -0.91% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/22/19 - 25502

03/20/20 - 19174 

02/22/21 - 31522

03/22/21 - 32731

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1449/1825 = 0.79

A/D Vol = 0.69

New Hi/Lo = 119/30 = 3.97

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of March 15, 2021

Monday, March 15, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   32,953.46   +174.82 (+0.53%)

The Index opened at 32799, up 20 points, and immediately shot up to 32931, up 152. From there it quickly fell, hitting a lo of 32729, off 50, shortly after 10:00.  It went sideways for over an hour, then dropped to a new lo of 32630 at 11:30.  But an hour later it broke into positive territory, and reached 32875, up 96, at 2:30.  After a slump back to 32800 from 3:00 to 3:30, it rose 153 points into the close.  

The session looked dicey in the morning for all the indexes, but the afternoon was positive.  The NASDAQ finished up over a percent, and the other indexes made more modest but solid gains.  I guess shoes must be a hot commodity on Wall Street: Nike was up 3.2% - pretty impressive for a single day.  But The Weyco Group, that manufactures Florsheim, Nunn Bush and a few other brands, was up a stunning 16.26%, on 4 times average volume. I can’t find any reason for this.  It pays a 4.6% dividend, which, in context, now looks rather quaint.  

This is a clearly up day with the hi and lo higher by 180 and 167 points, respectively.  The span was 344.  Momentum is clearly up now.  March 2020 was so long ago.

The Fed Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday; and options and futures contracts expire on Friday.  Things might be unsettled this week.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.53% 

SP500 +0.65%   

NASDAQ  +1.05.%    

Russell 2000 +0.31% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/12/19 - 25849

03/13/20 - 23186

02/12/21 - 31458

03/15/21 - 32953

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2054/1241 = 1.66

A/D Vol = 1.69

New Hi/Lo = 462/15 = 30.80

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Taking Stock - Week of Monday, March 8, 2021

Monday, March 8, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,802.44   +306.14 (+0.97%)

The Index opened at 31512, up 16, and started climbing.  It reached 32004, 5 points short of a new all-time intra-day hi at 11:00.  After drawing back about 90 points, it surged through that level and hit a new hi of 32148, up 652 at 1:15.  But it was all downhill from there, giving up more the half the gain. Not in a straight line of course; but the hard 198 point fall in the last 17 minutes was pretty direct.

This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo up by 568 and 745 points, respectively.  These are stunning numbers that included a new intra-day hi by 138 points, but missed a new closing hi by 158. The span was 636.

What can we make of a day when the index lost 346 points in the last 2.75 hours? When the SP500 loses its entire mid-day gain to end up a half percent in the red?  And when, meanwhile, the NASDAQ spends almost the entire day in the red, losing 2.4% at the close?

This fragmentation is not comforting.  Some of the deviation results from a shift away from growth [read tech] stocks to value, and partly from large to small cap.  There has been a lot of contrary motion between the NASDAQ and the Russell, which was up a bit today.  So, it might be more or less rational.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.97% 

SP500 -0.54%   

NASDAQ  -2.41%    

Russell 2000 +0.49% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/08/19 - 25450

03/06/20 - 25865

02/08/21 - 31386

03/08/21 - 31802

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  1990/1274 = 1.56

A/D Vol = 1.35

New Hi/Lo = 461/15 = 30.73

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

Taking Stock -- Week of March 1, 2021

Monday, March 1, 2021

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   31,535.51   +603.14 (+1.95%)

The index opened at 31066, up 134 points, and immediately shot to 31410, up 478.  It then advanced more slowly, reaching a hi of 31634, up 701, at 11:20.   It drifted slowly down, reaching 31475 at 1:15, then rose to the day’s hi of 31634 before 3:00, followed by a 98 point slide into the close.

So. the roller coaster ride continues. This is a clearly up day, with the hi and lo up by 183 and 155 points, respectively.  The outsized magnitude to the gain at the close is because Friday’s session ended near the day’s lo, and today’s ended near the hi end.  The span was 568 points.  This is the 5th consecutive day of 490 or more.

The other indexes were up more, on a percentage basis, than the DJI, with the NASDAQ and Russell each gaining more than 3%.

% Changes -

DJI30  +1.95% 

SP500 +2.38%   

NASDAQ  +3.01%    

Russell 2000 +3.37% 

DJI30 Closings -

03/01/19 - 26026

02/28/20 - 25409

02/01/21 - 30212

03/01/21 - 31536

NYSE Internals - 

A/D =  2646/651 = 4.03

A/D Vol = 8.72

New Hi/Lo = 218/25 = 5.35

Tuesday, March 2, 2021