Taking Stock -- Week of December 27, 2021

Monday, December 27, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,791.19   +65.40 (+1.38%)

DJI30 --- 36,302.38   +351.82 (+0.98%)

NASDAQ --- 15,871.26   +217.89 (+1.39%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,261.46   +19.89 (+0.89%)

The SP500 opened at 4733, up 8 points, and immediate;y rose to 4750. It then rose more slowly, reaching 4774 at noon and 4784 at 2:30.  After a slight draw back it rose into the late day hi, closing less than a point lower.  Last Thursday the index came within 4 points of a new intra-day hi.  Also on Thursday it reached a new closing hi by 13 points, and today it exceeded that by 65.

Elliott Wave analyst Avi Gilbert identifies 4677 as a critical support level to maintain the short term bullish case.  A significant break of that level means that a corrective phase is unfolding with further declines expected.  He also identifies 4788 [top horizontal line on the graph] as critical resistance.  An impulsive break through suggests further gains ahead.

The DJI30 opened at 35954, up 4 points, and immediately rose to 36077.  It chopped up and down for 45 minutes, then climbed again reaching 36187 at 12:15 and 36265 at 2:30.  After a slump to 36200 after 3:00 it rose sharply to close 4 points under the late day hi.  This index is approaching new highs, but has not yet achieved them.

The NASDAQ opened at 15697, up 43 points, and quickly rose to 15763.  After a brief draw back it climbed to  

155844 at 12:15 and after 2:30.  Following a slump to 15825 before 2:30 it rose to close within a fraction of the day's hi.  It is still 200 to 400 points under recent all time highs.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2242, up a point.  It slumped to 2230, off 11, at 10:00, then quickly rose, reaching 2255 at 11:15.  It ran horizontal above 2250 until after 3:30 when it climbed sharply into the close for the day's largest gain.  It remains about 200 points under the recent all time highs.

This is a nice follow up to last week's gains, and a good start to the week.  Maybe there is a Santa Clause.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,786.32   -4.87 (-0.10%)

DJI30 --- 36,398.21   +95.83 (+0.26%)

NASDAQ --- 15,781.72   -89.54 (-0.56%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,246.51   -14.95 (-0.66%)

The SP500 opened at 4795, up 4 points.  It reached 4807, the day's hi, before 10:00.  It then dropped the rest of the day in two choppy looking steps, hitting 4780, the lo, at 12:30.  It then wandered into the close for a small loss.

It reached a new intra-day hi, but not a new closing hi, faltering within 10 points of the critical resistance level I mentioned yesterday.  But after 5 strong days, a slight pull back is not a surprise, and does not, on its own, impede the bullish case.

The DJI30 followed a roughly similar path, It opened at 36302, the day's lo, up a fraction, and reached 36527, up 225, the hi, after 10:00.  It also fell in two steps, hitting 36344, an intermediate lo, at 12:30, before chopping into the close for the day's only gain.  It remains about 40 points under all time highs.

The NASDAQ opened at 15895, up 24, and reached 15901, the hi, up 30, at 10:00. It had a bumpy ride down until hitting 15757, the lo, off 114, after 2:00.  From there it was a slight rise and fall into the close.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2261, off a fraction.  It reached 2275, the hi, up 13, at 10:00.  It fell to 2246, the lo, off 16, at 12:30, struggled to reach 2257 at 3:30, then drooped, finishing within a point of the lo for the day's largest loss.

Wednesday December 29, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close ---  4,793.06   +6.71 (+0.14%)

DJI30 --- 36,488.63   +90.42 (+0.25%)

NASDAQ --- 115,766.22   -15.51 (-0.10%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,249.24   +2.74 (+0.12%)

The SP500 opened at 4789, up 2 points, and dropped to 4778, the lo, off 8 points at 10:15.  It stayed under 4793 until 2:00, and reached 4804, the hi at 3:50, the dropped hard into the close for a small gain. 

The DJI30 opened at 36421, up 23, quickly reached 36509, up 111, then dropped to 36396, off 2, the lo, at 10:15. It stayed below 36509 until 3:00, and reached 46572.the hi at 3:50 before dropping hard into the close for a modest gain.  

The NASDAQ opened at  15795, up 13, and dropped to 15680, off 102 at 10:15.  It then stayed below 15777 until 3:30, hitting 15792 after 3:50, followed by a drop into the close for a small loss. 

The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, off a fraction, and dropped to 2237, off 10, at 10:15. It climbed to 2253, the hi, after 11:00. it snaked around neutral, staying above 2243 the rest of the day, then rising from that level after 3:30 to close with a small gain.

Today's action appears to be counter-current to the presumed short term up trend.  The SP500 has stalled within a few points of 4788, the critical resistance level identified by Avi Gilbert.  Pushing through that level with an impulse will validate the bullish case.

Thursday December 30, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

SP500 at the close ---  4,778.73   -14.33 (-0.30%)

DJI30 --- 36,398.08  -90.55 (-0.25%)

NASDAQ --- 15,741.56   -24.65 (-0.16%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,248.79   -0.45 (-0.02%)

The SP500 opened at 4794, up 1.  It reached 4809, up 16, the hi, before 10:30.  It drifted slowly lower until 3:30, when it fell sharply, hitting 4775, the low, just 3 minutes before the close.  The 3 point rise at the end came on a volume surge.

The index remains stalled near the critical resistance level of 4788.  It did reach a new intra-day hi by less than 2 points, but missed a closing hi by 12.

The DJI30 36522, up 34, and quickly rose to 36679, up 191. It dropped to 36500 at 11:45, and wound around that level until 3:30 when it dropped hitting 36372, the low, 3 minutes before the close. It rose 26 points into the close on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15759, off 7 points.  It rose to 15855 before 10:30.  I hovered near that level nutil 2:30, hitting 15868, the hi, at noon.  At 3:00 it fell hard, reaching 15729, the lo, 3 minutes before the lo. It the rose 13 points on a volume surge.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2249.  It rose to 2272, the hi, up 23, after 10:00.  It stayed above 2265, hitting the hi again at 2:45.  It then dropped hard, hitting 2247, the lo, off 2 points, 3 minutes before the close.  It then rose, ending off a half point. 

This appears to be a counter-current wave still unfolding.

Friday December 31, 2021

SP500 at the close ---  4,766.18   -12.55 (-0.26%)

DJI30 --- 36,338.30   -59.78 (-0.16%)

NASDAQ --- 15,644.97   -96.59 (-0.61%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,245.31   -3.48 (-0.15%)

The SP500 opened at 4775, off 4 points, and quickly rose to 4787, the hi, up 8.  It then fell and stayed slightly negative until 1:00.  It spent most of the afternoon chopping around neutral, but dropped vertically in the last 15 minutes to finish within a half point of the last minute lo, on a volume surge, for a small loss.

Today's action surrounded the critical resistance level identified earlier in the week.  So the year ends on a very uncertain note.  Is a counter-current wave unfolding, or is the index topping and ready to fall?

The DJI30 opened at 36386, off 12, and stayed in negative territory until 1:00, hitting 36304, the lo, off 94, before 12:30.  It then spend most of the afternoon above neutral, hitting 36485, the hi, up 87 after 2:00.  It also took a dive at the end on a volume surge, ending 34 points above the low, for a small loss.

The NASDAQ opened at 15723, off 19.  Ot quickly rose to 15777, the hi, up 36.  It dropped to 15694 around 11:00, and stayed close to that level until the last 15 minutes when it dropped to 15644, the lo, 1 point below the close.  It finished with the day's largest loss.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2246, 0ff 3 points, and climbed to 2258, the hi, up 9, after 10:00.  It meandered close to the neutral line until the last few minutes when it fell to close just a half point above the late-day lo.

These choppy losses over the last few days do not look impulsive; so I still think we are seeing counter-current motion within an upward trend.