Taking Stock - Week of December 13, 2021

Monday, December 13, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close --- 4,668.97.  -43.05 (-0.91%)

DJI30 --- 35,650.95   -320.04 (-0.89%)

NASDAQ --- 15,413.28  -217.32 (-1.39%)

Russell 2000 --- 2,180.50  -31.31 (-1.42%)

The SP500 opened at 4710, the day's hi, off 2 points, and fell to near 4670 from 11:30 to noon. It recovered to near 4690 from 3:00 to 3:30, then fell into the close, less than 2 points above the late day lo, on a volume surge.

The DJI30 opened at 35959, the day's hi, off 12 points, and fell near 35620 from 11:00 to noon. It slowly rose to 35790 at 3:45, then fell almost 140 points into the close on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15621, off 9 points. It dropped to about 15420 for a while near noon. It rose to 15520 after 3:00, then fell hard after 3:30 to close only 5 points above the late day lo.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2212, the day's hi. It dropped to 2169, the lo, at noon, then recovered to 2195 at about 3:15. then fell15 points into the close for the day's largest loss.

This is a dismal start to the week, with each index starting at or near the high, then tumbling to finish close to the day's lo.

At this point, I have no idea if the current trend is up or down. I can justify an up trend continuing based on the SP500 chart; but the Russell 2000 looks like it is heading down.

Tuesday, December 14, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,634.09   -34.88 (-0.75%)

DJI30    ---  35,544.18   -106.77 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ   ---   15,237.64   -175.64 (-1.14%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,159.65   -20.84 (-0.96%)

The SP500 opened at 4643, off 26 points.  It fell to near 4607, the lo, off 62, from noon until 2:00.  It reached 4650, an intermediate hi, after 3:30, then fell under 4630 before a slight rise into the close.  At the lo, it was near the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and still above potential support from early September.

The DJI30 opened at 35606, off 45 points.  It bounced around near 35442, the low, from 11:00 to 2:00.  It rose to 35640 after 3:30, then fell under 35500 before a slight rise into the close.  At the lo, it was near both the 13 and 55 day EMAs, and a potential support zone from mid  August.

The NASDAQ opened at 15216, off 197 points.  It reached 15318, the hi, off 96, at 9:45.  I stayed near 15097, the lo, off 316, from 11:00 to 2:00, and rose to 15290 after 3:30.  It then fell to 15210 before a slight rise into the close.  It is hovering in what could be a support level from early September.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2179, off 2 points. It reached 2190, the hi, up 9, before 10:30, and fell to 2153, the lo, off 27, at 2:00. It rose above 2170 at 3:30, then fell to 2156 before  slight rise into the close.  At the low, it was in the vicinity of a support line going back a year.  A strong breach of 2160 would be a very bad sign.  

The idea that the current trend is up is still supportable for the SP500 and DJI30, strained for the NASDAQ, and highly suspicious for the Russell 2000. One way or another, the picture should offer some clarity before the end of the week.  Maybe.  I hope. 

Wednesday, December 15, 2021 

Green Arrow Up

SP500 at the close  ---   4,709.75   +75.66 (+1.63%)

DJI30    ---  35,927.43   +383.25 (+1.08%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,565.58   +327.94 (+2.15%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,195.21   +35.56 (+1.65%)

The SP500 opened at 4636, up 2 points, then stayed near 4611, the lo, from 10:00 until 2:00.  There was a sharp but bumpy rise into the hi, just 2 points above the close, with a volume surge in the waning moments. 

The DJI opened at 35549, up 5 points, and quickly fell to 35390, the lo, off 155.  It hovered slightly above that level util almost noon, when it began a slow rise that accelerated after 2:00. This led up to the late day hi, just 16 points above the close, ending on a volume surge.

The NASDAQ opened at 15231, off 7 points.  It slid down to 15055, the lo, off 182, before 12:30.  After 2:00 if started rising up to the close, ending only 10 points under the late day hi.

The Russell 2000 opened at 2160, up a fraction, and dropped to 3131, the lo, off 29 before noon.  After 2:00, it rose, hitting over 2199 about 20 minutes before the close, 5 points lower.

These nice increases are comforting.  But it is still unclear which way the indexes are heading.  One day is not enough to clarify things – so hang on for the next few days.

Thursday, December 16, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,668.67   -41.18 (-0.87%)

DJI30    ---  35,897.64   -29.79 (-0.08%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,180.43   -385.15 (-2.47%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,152.46   -42.75 (-1.95%)

The SP500 opened at 4719, up 9 points.  It fell pretty steadily to the4652, the lo, off 58, before rising to 4686, then sliding into the close on a volume surge, for a substantial loss, despite the hi and lo both being higher..

The DJI30 opened at 36036, up 109, and rose to 36199, the hi, up 262  It then fell to 35778, the lo, off 149, before 3:00.  It rose to 36025 after 3:30, the slumped to the close on a volume surge for a tiny loss.  Still, the hi and lo were both higher.

The NASDAQ opened at 15629, up 64 points, quickly rose 4 into the hi, then dropped to 15119, the lo, before 3:00.  It rose to 15245 after 3:30, then slid into the close for a huge loss.  Contra that, the hi and lo were both higher.

The Russell opened at 2197, up less than 2 points, and rose to 2216, the hi, up 21, before 10:00.  It fell to 2145, the lo, off 51, then stumbled into the close for a large loss.

This was a strange session with losses ranging from insignificant to massive, but higher extremes in all the indexes.  The Russell is hovering at its support level, with today's range surrounding 2160.  This appears to be a significant level, and a meaningful break lower could be a worrisome signal.

Friday, December 17, 2021 

Red Arrow Down 

SP500 at the close  ---   4,620.64   -48.03 (-1.03%)

DJI30    ---  35,365.44   -532.20 (-1.48%)

 

NASDAQ   ---   15,169.68   -10.75 (-0.07%)

Russell 2000   ---   2,173.93   +21.48 (+1.00%)

The SP500 opened at 4653, off 16 points.  It dropped to 4600, the lo, off 68, at 10:15, then rose to 4667, the hi, off 2, an hour later.  After a smaller drop and rise, it slid from 2:00 into the close, on a volume surge at the end for a substantial loss. The day's range is above the 55 dy EMA, and surrounds the 13 day EMA.

The DJI30 opened at 35800, the hi, off 98 points. It dropped to 35284, the lo, off 611, at 10:15, then rose to 36661 at 11:15.  From there tumbled the rest of the day, closing about 80 points above the lo for a substantial loss,   The day's range surrounds the 13 and 55 day EMAs.

The NASDAQ opened at 15037, of 144 points, and dropped to 14960, the lo, off 220. a few minutes later  It reached 15289, the hi, up 108 at 11:15.  It didn't drop below 15111 again, and snaked around neutral the rest of the day, closing with a tiny loss.  These values are above the 144 EMA , but below the 55 EMA.

The Russell 2000 opened flat at 2153, then dropped to 2125, the lo, off 28.  It hovered near 2186, the hi, up 34, from before 11:00 until after 11:30. It stayed above 2165 he rest of the day, and slid into the close for a substantial gain.  It is straddling the support level around 2160.

It's unusual for the Russell to gains when the other indexes are down.  This might all still be counter-current to the main thrust.  But which way that is heading is ambiguous.  That uncertainty itself suggests counter-current motion.  We'll just have to wait and see.

This week's losses were not enough to negate last week's large gains.

Weekly changes - 

SP500   –1/94%

DJI30  -1.68%

NASDAQ  -2.95%

Russell 2000  -1.71%