Taking Stock Week of June 7, 2021

Monday, June 7, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close --- 34,630.24 -126.15 (-0.36%)

The Index opened at 34766, up 9 points. It quickly rose to 34820, up 63, then started a long tumble down, landing on a low of 34575, off 183 at 2:00. From there is was mostly sideways, with a modest rise of about 60 points into the close.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 49 points and the lo lower by 44. The range was 246. The loss results from the close landing near the bottom of the day's range.

Each index had its own contour. The SP500 fell early, ran flat until mid-afternoon, then rose, but did not get to positive territory. The NASDAQ started negative, went slightly positive, ran mostly flat, then rose in the late afternoon. The Russell 2000 started positive, rose until mid-day, then ran mostly flat until the end.

Today's % changes -
DJI30 -0.36%
SP500 -0.08%
NASDAQ +0.49%
Russell +1.43%

DJI Closings -
6/07/19 - 25984
6/05/20 - 27111
5/07/21 - 34778
6/07/21 - 346306

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1880/1445 = 1.30
A/D Vol = 1.05
New Hi/Lo = 384/10 = 38.40

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,599.82   -30.42 (-0.09%)

The Index opened at 34646, up 16 points.  It slumped to 34540 from 10:00 to 10:30, recovered to 34615 at 11:00, then took a hard, brief fall to a low of 34453, off 177 before 11:30.  But 15 minutes later it was back above 34600.  It then ran sideways between that level and 34659, up 22, until it climbed to 34665, the day's hi, up 35  points, from 3:00 to 3:30.  It then fell 66 points into the close.

The yellow arrow and slight decline at the close do not tell the whole story.  This is a clearly down day with the hi and lo lower by 156 and 122 points, respectively.  The span was 212 points.  The SP500 had a similar contour and wound less than 1 point positive on a clearly up day.  The NASDAQ had an 11:30 dip into the red  in an otherwise positive day, but finished a few points under its opening. Still, it was a clearly up day. The Russell 2000 also dipped at 11:30, but stayed green ion its clearly up day, and finished near its hi.

Since reaching their recent all time highs, the indexes have gone nowhere.  But in the last couple weeks have gained enough ground that the highs might be within reach some time soon.  Some forecasts are for a correction before the next leg up.  We'll just have to wait and see.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.09%

SP500 +0.02%

NASDAQ +0.31%

Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -

6/07/19 - 25984

6/08/20 - 27572

5/07/21 - 34778

6/08/21 - 34600

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2112/1190 = 1.30

A/D Vol = 1.30

New Hi/Lo = 398/10 = 39.80

Wednesday, June, 9, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,447.14   -152.68 (-0.44%)

The Index opened at 34626, up 26 points.  It quickly dropped to 34554, off 45. Before 11:30 it climbed to 34655, up 55.  But by noon it fell back to 34567, then to 34538, off 62,  before 12:30.  It then ran mostly sideways until after 3:00 when it tumbled about 90 points into the close.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by the tiny increments of 11 and 14 points.   The span was 215.  The SP500 had a higher hi and lo, but a lower close, all by small increments.  Ditto the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, by somewhat larger margins.  All the indexes faded in the last couple hours.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.44%

SP500 -0.18%

NASDAQ -0.09%

Russell -0.71%

DJI Closings -

6/07/19 - 25984

6/09/20 - 27272

5/07/21 - 34743

6/09/21 - 34447

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1572/1751 = 0.90

A/D Vol = 0.70

New Hi/Lo = 373/5 = 74.60

Thursday, June 10, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,466.24  +19.10 (+0.06%)

The index opened at 34503, up 55 points, and quickly soared to 34738, up 219.  But before 11:00 it gave it all back, landing at 34447, up 0!  It then climbed again, reaching 34600 after 1:00.  From there, it tumbled into the close, for a slim 19 point gain.  

This is a clearly up day, by meager amounts, with the hi and lo up by 83 and 8 points, respectively. Based on lows since late May, 34400 +/- 50 or so points might be a new support level.

All the indexes had an 11:00 a.m. lo. The SP500 recovered most of its loss, and the NASDAQ went on close near the day's hi.  The Russell struggled to recover, but slumped again at the end, and was continuously in the red after the opening moments.

Today's first chart is the SP500 from it's hi of 3394 on 2/19/20, just before the decline into the 3/23/20 lo.  It shows a rising wedge since that date.  The 2nd chart is a close up view of recent activity.  Since rising slightly above the top of the wedge in March, the index dropped to the bottom on 5/19/21.  Since then, daily highs have crawled along the top of the wedge.  Presumably, this is a bearish pattern, and the point of the wedge occurs early next month. Further, there was a new all-time intra-day hi today at 4250, exceeding the previous 4238 by 12 points, and an all time closing hi by 7 points at 4239.

The DJI hit its all time intra-day hi a month ago today, and its closing hi the previous day,  Today, those values are lower by a couple hundred points. The NASDAQ hit its intra-day hi on 4/27 and closing hi the day before. Today's values are also lower by a couple hundred points.  The Russell 2000 closed at its all time hi on 4/27.  Yesterday's hi, at 2351, was only 10 points below. So, given today's drop, that might be a resistance level.

The markets have been fragmented for most of this year, and that is not a healthy signal.  I don't think we are on the verge of another crash, but a correction of 10 percent or more in the next few weeks or months would not surprise me.

% changes -

DJI30 +0.06%

SP500 +0.47%

NASDAQ +0.78%

Russell -0.68%

DJI Closings -

6/07/19 - 25984

6/09/20 - 27272

5/07/21 - 34743

6/09/21 - 34447

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1765/1558 = 1.13

A/D Vol = 0.93

New Hi/Lo = 332/8 = 41.50

Graph 1

Gragh 2

Friday, June 11, 2021

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,479.60   +13.36 (+0.04%)

The Index opened at 34500, up 34 points.  It leaped to 34618, up 152, in the first few minutes.  From there it took a hard tumble to 34400, off 66 at 11:00 through 12:00, then slumped further to 34329, off 138, at 12:40.  It rose to 34416 at 2:00, then ran sideways until 3:40, when it climbed about 65 points into the close.

Only the minuscule 13 point [0.04%] gain at the finish kept this from being a clearly down day.  The hi and low fell by the nearly identical margins of 120 and 119 points.  The spread was 289.

Yesterday I mentioned 34400 +/- 50 as possible support.  Today it went 20 points lower before rebounding. So I'm now calling 34330 as the bottom of the support range – for now, at least.  You can see it on the chart. A significant break of that level - which would also breach the up-slanting channel from the 3/23/20 lo - should signal that a larger drop is on the way.

All the indexes slumped late morning, then ran flat or up before rising into their respective closes.  But market fragmentation continues, as the percentages below attest.  I read today that the Dow Transports are deviating from the Industrials, which could also be a bearish signal.

Weekly % changes -

DJI30 – 0.80%

SP500 +0.41%

NASDAQ +1.85%

Russell +2.16%

Daily % changes -

DJI30 +0.04%

SP500 +0.19%

NASDAQ +0.35%

Russell +1.06%

DJI Closings -

6/11/19 - 26049

6/11/20 - 25128

5/11/21 - 34269

6/11/21 - 34480

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2181/1127 = 1.93

A/D Vol = 1.74

New Hi/Lo = 250/12 = 20.83