Taking Stock - Week of 6/14/21

Monday, June 14, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 index at the close --- 34,393.75    -85.85 (-0.25%)

The Index opened at 34473, off 7 points, and the hi for the day. It tumbled to the lo, 34212, off 268, at 1:00 and lingered slightly above until 2:00, when it started to rise. It hovered near 34270 from 3:00 to 3:30, then rose 130 points into the close.

This is a clearly down day with the hi and lo lower by 146 and 117 points. The spread was 261. At the lo, the Index dropped below the support level I identified last week. But the 120 point gain in the last half hour brought it back above at the close. Still – if the up-slanting channel from the March '20 lo is to be honored, the “Index will have to turn up in the next few days.

The SP500 had a similar contour, but eked out a small gain within a fraction of its session hi, for incremental new all time intra-day and closing highs, at the top of the wedge I posted last week. The NASDAQ was up all day, and also had a surge higher at the end of the session, also achieving new all time intra-day and closing highs by small increments. It's today's leader – but there could be a triple top forming. The Russell started positive, but slumped the entire day, ending down, but with slightly higher hi and lo. It is slightly below its March all time highs. It could also be forming a broad triple top.

The Fed Open Market Committee meets Wednesday. Not much new is expected, but maybe a hint about considering thinking about tapering someday might be forthcoming.

% changes -
DJI30 -0.25%
SP500 +0.18%
NASDAQ +0.74%
Russell -0.41%

DJI Closings -
6/14/19 - 26090
6/12/20 - 25606
5/14/21 - 34382
6/14/21 - 34394

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1521/1817 = 0.84
A/D Vol = 0.53
New Hi/Lo = 272/12 = 22.67

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Red Arrow Down.

DJI30 Index at the close   ---    34,299.33   -94.42 (-0.27%)

The Index opened at 34397, up 3 points, quickly rose another 23, then fell hitting a low of 34199, off 195, at 11:30 and 12:00.  It rose to 34275 at 12:30 and ran sideways for over an hour before climbing near 34350 at 2:00 and again at 3:00.  From there, it was a bumpy 150 point  fall over the last hour.

This is a clearly doew day, with the hi and lo lower by the small margins of 52 and 12 points.  The span was 221.

At the lo, the Index was below my proposed support level, and barely above the up-slanting chanel from the 3/23/20 lo.

All the indexes were in the red all day, and finished down.  The SP500 and Russel 2000 had similar contours to the DJI.  The NASDAQ kept sliding all afternoon, and might be forming a triple top.  The SP500 only lost 8 points, and is still crawling along the top of its wedge.  The Russell is only slightly below its all time hi, and might also be forming a triple top.

Fed Open Market Committee meets tomorrow.  Nothing dramatic is expected.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.27%

SP500 -0.20%

NASDAQ -0.71%

Russell -0.26%

DJI Closings -

6/14/19 - 26090

6/15/20 - 25763

5/14/21 - 34382

6/14/21 - 34299

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1563/1747 = 0.89

A/D Vol = 0.95

New Hi/Lo = 183/14 = 13.07

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

Red Arrow Down   

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   34,033.67   -265.66 (-0.77%)

The index opened at 34308, up 9 points, and quickly rose to 34333, up 34.   It meandered sideways until noon, when it slid lower, hitting near 34150 at 12:30.  At 2:00 it took a vertical drop to 33917, off 382.  Reports from the Fed meeting say that tapering will begin in 2023.  So, naturally, that caused a 200+ point drop in the Index at 2:00 p.m. today.  This drop was echoed in the NASDAQ and SP500, but not in the Russell 2000, which peaked at noon, then fell to match its early morning lo at 1:30, then started rising again, contra the other indexes. 

The DJI tried to recover, but fell to the lo again after 2:30.  I climbed back up to 34150 before 3:30, then slipped into the close, ending close to where it would have if the slide from noon had continued without the 2:00 mini-crash.  It pierced the up-slanting channel from the 3/23/20 lo at both the lo and the close.  Next support is in the range of 33525 to 33800, indicated in red on the chart.

All the indexes ended negative.  The SP500 landed right at the bottom border of its wedge. The NASDAQ is still hovering near its all time hi, but might be sliding down.  Ditto the Russell 2000.

Depending on how you squint, the indexes might look like they are trending down, or still consolidating.  A lot of analysis is expecting a correction, and it might be getting started.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.77%

SP500 -0.54%

NASDAQ -0.24%

Russell -0.23%

DJI Closings -

6/14/19 - 26090

6/15/20 - 26290

5/14/21 - 34382

6/16/21 - 34073

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1266/2943 = 0.62

A/D Vol = 0.52

New Hi/Lo = 185/22 = 8.41

Thursday, June 17, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,823.45   -210.22 (-0.62%)

The Index opened at 3492, off 59 points, and after a brief rise to 34092, up 19, took a bumpy ride down to the lo of 33627, off 446 at 12:30.  It rose to 33870, off 203, at 1:45.  From there it undulated into the close, with a drop in the last 15 minutes on a volume surge.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 87 and 282 points respectively. The span was 465 points, the largest since 472 on 5/19, when the Index lost 165 points.  It has pierced the bottom of the up-slanting channel, and is now in the support zone dating from early April.

The SP500 and Russell 200 had similar contours to the DJI, but the NASDAQ was almost the inverse, in contrary motion most of the session.

% changes -

DJI30 -0.62%

SP500 -0.04%

NASDAQ +0.87%

Russell -1.18%

DJI Closings -

6/17/19 - 26113

6/17/20 - 26120

5/17/21 - 34328

6/17/21 - 33823

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1158/2151 = 0.54

A/D Vol = 0.35

New Hi/Lo = 141/24 = 5.88

Friday, June 18, 2021

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   ---   33,290.08   -533.37 (-1.58%)

The Index opened at 33623, off 201 points, and continued to fall like a rock in a cliché, to 33400, off 423, in about a minute.  There was then a bumpy slide to the lo of 33291, off 532, at 11:00.  It rose to 33453 forty minutes later. But from there it was a slow, grinding slump into a marginal new low of 33272, and a close near the previous 11:00 lo.

The Index has blown through the bottom of its channel from March, 2020, and pierced potential support at 33525. If this continues, the next potential support might be in the high 32000's.  At today's lo, the Index is off 5% from its 5/10 hi of 35092.  Corrections are generally considered to be in the 10% range.  That would land at 31582, and I've indicated that level with a new red line on the chart.  That could be in a support range based on action back in February.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 242 and 291 points, respectively. The span was 351. This was a triple witching day, when options and futures expire.  That might account for some portion of the volatility that happened yesterday and today.  Volume on the NYSE was more about 3 times more than what has been normal lately.

The SP500 broke below its rising wedge and first line of potential support at 4190, landing at 4166.  There is a broad range of possible support between 4000 and 4150.  The NASDAQ had an inside day, and  at 14030 is only 140 points below its all time high, and well above its channel bottom.  The Russell was today/s big loser, and may still be forming a triple top. It finished  at 2237, and there are several possible support levels down to  2100.

This was a brutal end to painful week.  Every index got beaten up in today's blood bath.  Looking on the bright side, there might be some buying opportunities ahead.  Keep your powder dry.  The indexes always go on to new highs.  We just don't know when.

Weekly % changes -

DJI30 -3.45%

SP500 – 1.91%

NASDAQ -0.28%

Russell 2000 -4.20%

Daily % changes -

DJI30 -1.58%

SP500 -1.31%

NASDAQ -0.92%

Russell -2.17%

DJI Closings -

6/18/19 - 26466

6/18/20 - 26080

5/18/21 - 34061

6/18/21 - 33290

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1158/2151 = 0.54

A/D Vol = 0.35

New Hi/Lo = 141/24 = 5.88