Taking Stock - Week of December 7, 2020

Monday, December 7, 2020

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,069.79   -148.47 (-0.49%)

The index opened at 30233, up 15 points, and a new intra-day hi.  It immediately started falling, and hit a local lo of 30036, off 182, after 10:00.  It recovered to about 30115 at noon, then resumed falling.  It hit the day’s lo of 29967, off 251, at 2:00.  From there, it zig-zagged into the close, gaining 100 points along the way.

This is an outside day by tiny margins.  The hi was higher by 15 points, and the lo was lower by 22.  The span was 266.

I guess this could be called a sideways day, since it’s only off a half percent; and if you chose to do that I wouldn’t argue.  But the Index slid most of the day, so I’ll stick with red. We’ll have to see what happens for the rest of the week.

Today’s close was the 2nd highest. [Friday’s was the highest at 30218; 11/24 is in 3rd place, at 30046.]  Momentum increased by the tiniest increment, but remains basically sideways, as it has been since 11/16.  

This day was uninformative.  It’s hard to say whether the Index is topping or biding time for another thrust up.  An impulsive move below 30000 would be required to support the bearish case.

% Changes -
DJI30 -0.49%
SP500 -0.19%
NASDAQ +0.45%
Russell 2000 -0.06%

DJI30 Closings -
12/07/18 - 24389
01/02/20 - 28869
11/06/20 - 28323
12/07/20 - 30070

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1315/1823 = 0.72
A/D Vol = 0.61
New Hi/Lo = 286/2 = 143.0 

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,173.88   +104.09 (+0.35%)

After futures were slightly in the red all night, the Index opened at 29998, off 72 points, slipped a few more to 29972, then rose to 30060 in the first 15 minutes.  After 10:30 it rose to the range of 30150-30175 until 12:30, then it bumped up to a local hi of 30216 before 1:00.  It then ran between 30175 and 30200 until 2:00. There was a rise to a new hi at 30246 and fall back to 30170 that took about an hour.  From there it meandered into the close.

This is, by minuscule margins, a clearly up day, with the hi higher by 13 points, and the lo by 5.  This gives us another new intra-day hi by those same 13 points, while missing a new closing hi by landing 44 points under last Friday’s.  This is the 2nd highest closing, though, bumping yesterday’s close into 3rd place, and the 11/24 closing into 4th.

These incremental increases have constructed a rising wedge, which, per classical technical analysis, is a bearish pattern.  The bottom of the wedge is highlighted in the chart.  Momentum slithered up another tiny increment, but the thrust of it is still sideways, as it has been since the middle of November.

All the indexes had similar contours today.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.35% 

SP500 +0.28%   

NASDAQ  +0.50%    

Russell 2000 +1.40%

DJI30 Closings -

12/07/18 - 24389

01/02/20 - 28869

11/06/20 - 28323

12/08/20 - 30174

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1947/1145 = 1.72

A/D Vol = 0.61 = 1.77

New Hi/Lo = 249/3 = 83.00

Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Orange Arrow flattish to down. 

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,068.81   -105.07 (-0.35%)

The index opened at 30230, up 55 points, and immediately surged upward, reaching the hi of 30320, up 145, less than 10 minutes later.  From there it began to fall, reaching 30060 after 11:00.  It rose above 30150 at 12:30, then started falling again, hitting a lo of 29952 at 2:00. It climbed to 30084 a half hour later, then zig-zagged into the close, 16 points lower.

This is an outside day, with the hi higher by 73 points, and the lo lower by 20.  The span is 368 compared to yesterday’s 274. Today’s early morning peak gave us the 4th consecutive intra-day hi.  But the close was 207 points under Friday’s all time hi. Momentum remains sideways.

I just became aware of the Smart Money Index which compares action at the beginning and end of the trading day.  The idea is that - to be blunt - dumb money, driven by emotion, rushes into the market in the first half hour, while smart money rationally waits until the end of the day to trade.  The SMI has been in sharp decline since late September, while the SP500, similar to the DJI30, has been reaching new highs.  Earlier this year the SMI started declining in January, well before the February crash, and in 1999, more than a full year ahead of the y2k bust.  Indexes were reaching new highs at those times, as well.  Make of it what you will. 

Source

Source re:2020

The indexes all had similar contours today, and they all wound up negative.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.35% 

SP500 -0.79%   

NASDAQ  -1.94%    

Russell 2000 +1.73%

DJI30 Closings -

12/07/18 - 24389

01/02/20 - 28869

11/09/20 - 29158

12/09/20 - 30069

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1589/1520 = 1.05

A/D Vol = 0.98

New Hi/Lo = 335/2 = 167.5

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,999.26-69.55 (-0.23%)

The Index opened at 30023, off 36 points, and in a few minutes dropped to 29877, the day’s lo, off 192.  By 10:00 it was back up to 30064, the day’s hi, off 5.   It zig-zagged between 29955 and 30050 until after 2:00, when it broke to a local lo of 29920 before 2:30.  It climbed up to 30050, near the day’s hi, at 3:54, then dropped 54 points into the close.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi and lo lower by 256 and 75 points, respectively.  The span was 186, the narrowest since 124 on 10/08.  I’m going with a red arrow because of those losses, and the fact that the Index was in the red the entire day.  This is also the first day since 12/03 to not achieve a new intra-day hi. Momentum slipped by a tiny increment, and is still sideways.  

The Index is unable to stray very far from 30000.  A band around this value seems to be both support and resistance.  Until something breaks, one way or the other, there is not much happening.

% Changes -

DJI30  -0.37% 

SP500 -0.25%   

NASDAQ  +0.38%    

Russell 2000 +0.40%

DJI30 Closings -

12/07/18 - 24423

01/02/20 - 28869

11/10/20 - 29421

12/10/20 - 29999

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1663/1448 = 1.15

A/D Vol = 1.36

New Hi/Lo = 178/3 = 59.33

Friday, December 11, 2020

Yellow Arrow sideways

DJI30 Index at the close.   —-   30,046.37   +47.11 (+0.16%)


DJI Futures were in the red most of the night, and were off about 120 points just before 9:30. The Index then opened at 29988, off 11 points, but within a few minutes fell to 29856, off 143.  After a couple bounces near 29980, it dropped to the day’s lo of 29820 before 12:30.  From there it was a sharp rebound to 30050 before 2:00.  It then zig-zagged into the close, hitting the day’s hi of 30071 after 3:30.




This is marginally an outside day, with the hi higher by 8 points, and the lo lower by 47.  The span was 250. Daily lows have been slipping lower for the last 6 sessions, and today’s is the lowest since 29798 on 12/01.

Momentum again slipped by a tiny increment, and is still sideways.  For what it’s worth, today’s close is 649 points higher than that from one month ago, but 172 points below from that of one week ago.  The other indexes were marginally down today.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.16% 

SP500 -0.13%   

NASDAQ  -0.23%    

Russell 2000 -0.57%

DJI30 Closings -

12/11/18 - 24370

01/02/20 - 28869

11/11/20 - 29398

12/10/20 - 30046

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1315/1815 = 0.72

A/D Vol = 0.42

New Hi/Lo = 201/2 = 100.50