Taking Stock - Week of 12/21/20

Monday, December 21, 2020

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,216.45   +37.40 (+0.12%)

Overnight, the DJI futures fell sharply between 4:00 and 6:00 a.m., bottoming near 29400, and were near 29680, off about 430 points at 9:00.  They rose about 90 points just before the opening bell.  The Index then opened at 30159. off 20 points, and immediately dropped to 29865, off 314.  It quickly recovered back to 30000, off 179, then dropped to the lo of 29755, off 424, before 10:30.  From there it was a slow steady climb to 29304, up 124 points and the day’s hi, at about 2:30.  After that, there was a slide to 30110 at 3:52, and then a 106 point rise into the close.

I didn’t expect a climb back into the green today, but that is where the Index ended up. The hi was 39 points under the all time intra-day hi set last Friday.  The close was 87 points under last Thursday’s all time closing hi, and two points under the close on 12/04.

Today’s span was 549 points, the largest since 803 on 11/09, the day the Index was up 834 points.  It was a strange day, with hi lower by 39 points, the 37 point gain at the close, and the lo off by 274.  The lo was the lowest since 11/30.

The Index, even with all the new highs, is really going nowhere. It seems that 30000 is a level this market just can’t get away from.  I ran a few numbers  for the action since 11/24 to check.  That was the day before Thanksgiving, and the first session to have intra-day and closing highs above 30000, at 30117 and 30046, respectively.

Total lo to hi span: 29463.94 to 30343.59; or 879.95 points.

Mean of the hi and lo = 29903.62

Average of all the daily highs and lows = 30015.36

Span as a % of all the highs and lows = 2.93%

So the range over this time is 30015.36 +/- 1.47%
The standard deviation for this data set is 215.

The 875.95 point range is 4.10 standard deviations.
The dataset is 29903 +/- 2.05 St Dev units.
There were no highs above this range, and only one lo below it.

Even with all the new intra-day and closing highs, this is a very well behaved data set.

All the indexes were close to neutral.  The other 3 were slightly negative.

Today’s lo fell outside the up slanting wedge, but in the end, nothing came of it.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.12% 

SP500 -0.39%   

NASDAQ  -0.10%    

Russell 2000 -0.02%

DJI30 Closings -

12/21/18 - 22445

01/02/20 - 28869

11/18/20 - 29438

12/18/20 - 30216

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1170/2016 = 0.58

A/D Vol = 0.49

New Hi/Lo =  177/6 = 29.5

Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Red  Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,015.51   -200.94 (-0.67%)

Overnight, DJI futures were as low as 29925 at 1:00 a.m. Before the opening they were near 30100.  The index then opened at 30200, the day’s hi, off 16 points, and immediately dropped to 30135, then further, hitting a low of 30034, off 182, at 10:00.  Before 11:30 it recovered to about 30160, but fell to a low of 30022 a half hour later.  By 1:30 it was back up to about 30140 before dropping again to 29993, the day’s lo, off 224 at 3:40.  From there is limped up 22 points into the close.

Yesterday I mentioned that the average of all the highs and lows since 1124 was 30015.  Today closed right there.  It was an inside day with the hi lower by 104 points, and the lo higher by 237.  The span was a modest 207 points.  The 10 day average is 296.
The index was in the red all day.  But this is still just more sideways motion.  

The market has no direction, and has had none for over a month.  Momentum remains sideways. 

Of course.


% Changes -

DJI30  -0.21% 

SP500 -0.67%   

NASDAQ  +0.51%    

Russell 2000 +0.99%

DJI30 Closings -

12/21/18 - 22445

01/02/20 - 28869

11/20/20 - 29263

12/22/20 - 30015

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1335/1812 = 0.74

A/D Vol = 0.59

New Hi/Lo =  296/4 = 74.00


Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   30,129.83   +114.32 (+0.38%)

The Index opened at 30047, up 31 points and immediately shot up to 30185.  It stayed below 30240 until 12:30, and climbed to the day’s  hi of 30293, up 277, at 1:45. At 3:00 it slumped to 30242.  In the last 15 minutes it fell over 110 points from there to the close. Is this a dumb money early rise, smart money late fall example?  It’s certainly not much of a Santa Clause rally.

Still, this is a clearly up day, with the hi and low higher by 92 and 54 points respectively,  The span was 246.  Today’s 114 point closing gain is 174 points under last Thursday’s closing hi.  The intra-day high of 301193 was under Friday’s all time hi by 51 points. 

The SP500 and NASDAQ shared in the late day slump, but the Russell 2000 did not.  It did lose almost 5 points in the last few minutes, giving back about a quarter of its gain, but finished up 17, at an all time hi of 2007.10.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.38% 

SP500 +0.07%   

NASDAQ  -0.29%    

Russell 2000 +0.87%

DJI30 Closings -

12/21/18 - 22445

01/02/20 - 28869

11/24/20 - 30117

12/22/20 - 30015

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2155/938 = 2.19

A/D Vol = 3.22

New Hi/Lo =  280/4 = 70.00


Thursday, Christmas Eve, 2020

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   —-   30,199.87   +70.04 (+0.23%)

The Index opened today’s abbreviated session at 30156, up 26 points, jumped up to 30203, then slipped down to 30144 in the first 20 minutes. It gyrated in that range util 11:30, then dropped to the lo of 30099 at noon.  It shot up to the day’s hi of 30210 just before the close, and slipped 10 points to end the session.

This is an inside day with he hi lower by 83 points, and the lo higher by 53.  The 70 point gain at the close means nothing.  The span is 110, almost exactly 1/5th of Monday’s.

The index made new all time, closing and intra-day highs last week on the 17th and 18th, at 30303 and 30344, respectively.  Since then the Index has been converging on a value near 30150, less than 10 points above the bottom of the wedge [purple line.]

Is this growing complacency?  The Index has been almost completely directionless for well over a month - never mind the string of marginal new highs.  

My crystal ball is cloudy, but I feel the move directional move will be down.  Momentum remains broadly sideways, but at the one week level has been slipping since 12/09.  At levels up to 3 weeks, it now seems to have peaked. 

 

As Santa Clause rallies go, this is pretty anemic.  But in 2018 it was the bottom of an 18.8% decline over less than 3 month, so thank God for small favors.  



Merry Christmas.  The markets are closed tomorrow for the holiday.  Can’t wait to see what Monday brings.

% Changes -

DJI30  +0.35% 

SP500 +0.23%   

NASDAQ  +0.26%    

Russell 2000 -0.16%

DJI30 Closings -

12/24/18 - 21792  [Major bottom]

01/02/20 - 28869

11/09/20 - 30046

12/09/20 - 30200

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1894/1212 = 1.56

A/D Vol = 0.69

New Hi/Lo = 191/2 = 9.5