Taking Stock - Week of November 9, 2020

Disclaimer:  I am not a financial advisor, and do not give advice.  Make your own decisions.  Chose wisely.

Monday, November 9, 2020

Green Arrow UP a lot

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,157.97   +834.57 (+2.95%)

The Index opened at 29468, up an astounding 1145 points, or 4.04%, and quickly leaped further to 29934, an even more astounding 1610 points, or 5.69%, and a new all time intra-day hi.  It slid back to 29340 around 11:00, rose again to 29700 at 1:00 and hovered near there for an hour.  It slipped back to around 29500 at 3:30, then dropped hard in the last half hour, ending at 29158, about 27 points above the low.

This was a wild ride, and a huge gain, despite giving back about half of the morning’s advance in the afternoon. I certainly was not expecting this.  It’s a clearly up day, with the hi, lo and close massively higher by 1502, 941 and 835 points, respectively.   This gave us a new all time intra-day hi, but not a new hi at the close, which is about 40 points under the 9/03 hi.

I’ve been predicting a down-turn, and this is, obviously, not it.  Whether I’m wrong or not depends on what kind of follow-through happens in the next few days. Strangely, the NASDAQ’s participation in the morning’s surge was rather anemic.  It’s gain at the opening was 1.27%, which is respectable.  But it slid most of the day, and wound up 1.53% in the red.

Either this was the last gasp of irrational exuberance, or I’ll have to go back to the drawing board.  The big decline at the end of the day suggests that this might be a toss up.

% Changes - all the Indexes except the NASDAQ were up all day

DJI30 + 2.95% 

SP500 + 1.17&%   

NASDAQ - 1.53%    

Russell 2000 + 3.70%  [!]

DJI30 Closings -

11/09/18 - 25989

01/02/20 - 28869

10/09/20 - 28587

11/09/20 - 29158

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2442/683 = 3.58

A/D Vol =  0.83 = 4.93

New Hi/Lo = 345/12 = 28.75

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 at the Close   —-   29,420.92   +262.95 (+0.90%)

The Index opened at 29254, up 96 points.  In about 3 minutes it reached 29344, up 196.  Two minutes later, it was at 29197, up 39.  This was a day of gyrations: 29420 at 11:00; 29140 after 11:30; 29415-ish from noon to 1:00; 29230 at 1:30; 29488 at 3:30 followed by a stagger into the close, 67 points lower. 


This is a mixed day, with the hi and lo lower by 455 and 4 points respectively, but a close higher by 263.  An increase of under 1% is a typical market day, when nothing extreme is happening.  As follow-through to a surge though, its pretty anemic. Today’s hi was 29479, 53 points under yesterday’s midpoint. And all the thrashing around indicates a bipolar, disjoint market, even within the DJI.  

Meanwhile, the Russell had a strong up day; the SP500 was in the red most of the day, and wound up close to neutral, while the NASDAQ was negative all day and finished down by more than a percent.  Collectively, this does not look healthy. Some of this might be shifts from growth to value and from large to small cap.  But we’ll have to wait and see if these changes are real. 

Yesterday’s surge was dramatic - but not very good for these companies, some of which you might recognize. 

Biogen -28.17%

Zoom -17.37%

Etsy -17.15%

Teledoc -13.66%

Shopify -13.63%

Digital Turbine -13.63%

Roku -12.41%

Grubhub -10.95%

Chegg - 10.00%

This is just a sampling of the massive one-day losses that happened while the market was on overdrive.  

% Changes -

DJI30 + 0.90% 

SP500 - 0.14&%   

NASDAQ - 1.37%    

Russell 2000 + 1.88%

DJI30 Closings -

11/09/18 - 25989

01/02/20 - 28869

10/09/20 - 28587

11/09/20 - 29421

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2043/1014 = 2.01

A/D Vol = 1.78

New Hi/Lo = 68/10  = 6.8

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2020

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,397.63   -23.29 (-0.08%)

The Index opened at 29524, up 103 points, and immediately shot up to 29593, up 172.  Before 10:30, it dropped to 29348, off 73 points.  It spent the next few hours between 29475 and 29525, then took a nose dive after 2:00, bottoming at 29281, off 140, before 3:00.  From there it was a jagged rise into the close.

Despite the marginally lower close, the hi and low were up by 114 and 154 points respectively.  The span was 312 points, a bit under yesterday’s 352; the 10 day average is 486.

The Index curled itself around the null point, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ were green all day, and the Russell 2000, which spent most of the day in the red, finished down a mere 0.01%.  So, fragmentation continues. 

Short term momentum turned up in the Indexes last week, and may be topping out now.  We should know more in the next couple days.



% Changes -

DJI30 - 0.08% 

SP500 - +0.77%   

NASDAQ - 2.01%    

Russell 2000 -0.01%

DJI30 Closings -

11/09/18 - 25989

01/02/20 - 28869

10/09/20 - 28587

11/11/20 - 29398

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 1531/1513 = 1.01

A/D Vol = 0.62

New Hi/Lo = 47/7 = 6.71

Thursday, 11/12/20

Red Arrow Down

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,080.17   -317.46 (-1.08%)

The Index opened at 29232, off 166 points. Before 10:00 it dropped to 29161, off 236. It rose to 29312 at 10:15, and stayed above 29220 until 12:30.  It then dropped to 28983 between 1:00 and 1:30.  After a rise to 29120 at 2:00, there was a drop to the lo of 29802, off 495 after 3:30, followed by a 178 point rise into the close.  The day’s span was 409 points.  The 10 day average is 467.

This is a clearly down day, with the hi, lo and close off by 281, 379, and 317 points, respectively; and for each, the lowest values of the week. These are pretty solid looking losses, but today’s close is still 747 points above last Friday’s.  So, short term momentum, which turned up last week, might have reached a maximum, but it has not yet turned down.  Maybe next week.

All the Indexes were down today, so they might now be moving that way in unison.



% Changes -

DJI30 - 1.08% 

SP500 - 1.00%   

NASDAQ - 0.65%    

Russell 2000 - 1.64%

DJI30 Closings -

11/09/18 - 25387

01/02/20 - 28869

10/12/20 - 28838

11/12/20 - 29080

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 737/2334 = 0.32

A/D Vol = 0.26

New Hi/Lo = 33/7 = 4.771

Friday, November 13, 2020

Daily Arrow - Green, Up

Weekly Arrow - Yellow, Sideways

DJI30 Index at the Close   —-   29,479.81   +399.64 (+1.37%)

The Index opened at 29204, the day’s lo, up 124 points, and immediate shot up to 29311.  After stalling for an hour and a half, it began a steady climb to the hi of 29559 after 3:30. From there it was a 79 point drop into the close. 

This is a clearly up day, with the hi, lo, and close up by 247, 302, and 400 points, respectively.  But the hi and low are both under Wednesday’s, by 34 and 77 points, respectively.  So, despite the impressive looking gain, in the context of the whole week this is going nowhere.  With all of that, though, we have the highest close since the all time closing hi on 2/12.  Today’s closing hi is under the ATCH by only 71 points.  So, in my view, the message is quite mixed.

While the DJI30 and NASDAQ are hovering just below their all time highs, the Russell 2000 broke through its, 1740.75, achieved on 8/31/18, finishing at 1744.04 today. And while monthly momentum for the former 2 peaked in early September, the Russell’s  has been increasing pretty steadily since the March lo.  Maybe the rotation from large to small caps is real.

% Changes -

DJI30 - 1.37% 

SP500 + 1.36%   

NASDAQ = + 1.02%    

Russell 2000 +2.08%

DJI30 Closings -

11/09/18 - 25286

01/02/20 - 28869

10/12/20 - 28680

11/12/20 - 29480

NYSE Internals -

A/D = 2550/509 = 5.03 

A/D Vol = 5.7

New Hi/Lo = 61/5 = 12.20