Taking Stock - Week of November 23, 2020

Monday, November 23, 2020

Green Arrow Up

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,591.79   +328.31 (+1.12)

The Index opened at 29333, up 69 points, and the lo for day; then rose to 29577 up 314. It dropped back to 29360 at 11:30, then rose slowly to 29540 at 2:30.  From there it thrust up to the day’s hi of 29668 at 3:08, 76 points above the close. 

This is a clearly up day, with the hi, lo and close up by 198, 102 and 328 points, respectively. The span was 335.  On Friday I said, “Resistance seems to be firming at 29500, and support somewhere above 29000."  This was half right.  Resistance, for now at least, is closer to 29700.

 Up 328 looks impressive, but the midpoint of the the last 2 weeks range is 29433, and today’s midpoint is at 29500, only 67 points higher.  So after a big surge up on 11/09, the Index has gone basically nowhere - or more precisely - down a little.  Short term momentum is now very slightly down; and over longer ranges, even beyond one month, appears to be topping.

For what it’s worth, Apple was down almost 3% today, closing at 113.85.   It was ridiculously overvalued when it peaked at 134.18 on 9/02.  For the last couple months it’s been trading mostly in the range of 110 to 120.  I believe it is still significantly overvalued.  I’ll get interested when it hits a low somewhere around 80.  Maybe in February.

% Changes -
DJI30 +1.12%
SP500 +0.56%
NASDAQ +0.22%
Russell 2000 +1.95%

DJI30 Closings -
11/19/18 - 25017
01/02/20 - 28869
10/23/20 - 28336
11/23/20 - 29592

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2385/740 = 3.22
A/D Vol = 4.61
New Hi/Lo = 202/3 = 67.33

Tuesday, November 25, 2020

Green Arrow Up

DJi30 index at the close   —-   30,046.24   +454.97 (+1.54%)

The Index opened at 29746, up 155 points, and immediately rose to about 29900.  It climbed to the day’s hi of 30117 before noon and slid back to 29970 at 2:30 before rising about 76 points into the close.  This gives us new intra-day and closing highs.

It was a clearly up day with the hi, lo and close up by 449, 413 and 455 points respectively.  The spread was 370.  Even with these big gains, momentum didn’t change by much.  Remember, we had closings of 29952 on 11/16 and 29951 yesterday, and only 2 closing under 29300 since 11/10.  Since 11/09 there have been 4 intra-day highs above 29900.  Today’s closing is only above that of 11/16 by 90 points.  This is why today’s big gain had only a small effect on momentum.

As i’ve said a couple time recently, it all depends on follow-through, which has not been strong the last couple weeks.  Maybe another wave up is taking shape now, or it could simply be that we are witnessing some holiday week, post-election exuberance that will dissipate in the next few days.  

I think all the Indexes made new highs today.

% Changes -
DJI30 +1.54%
SP500 +1.62%
NASDAQ +1.31%
Russell 2000 +1.94%

DJI30 Closings -
11/23/18 - 24286
01/02/20 - 28869
10/23/20 - 28336
11/23/20 - 30046

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 2376/760 = 3.13
A/D Vol = 4.64
New Hi/Lo = 286/4 = 71.50

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2020

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 Index at the close   —-   29,872.41   -173.83 (-0.58%)

The index opened at 30059, up 13 points, but quickly fell to 29955. From there it tumbled to 29850 after 1:00.  It hovered around 29900 until it dropped to 29806, off 240 at 11:45.  It quickly recovered to 29865, then traveled sideways, mostly between  29850 and 29900, right into the close.

This is an inside day with not much to comment on - hence the yellow arrow.  The index spent the whole day in the red.  The hi was lower by 58 points and the lo was higher by 60.  The 253 point span is well centered in yesterday’s 370.  

The SP500 and Russell 2000 both were in the red all day, while the NASDAQ was in the green.

Naturally, short term momentum in the DJI30 is flat.  Medium term, it has some catching up to do, so in that range it’s been rising for the past 3 weeks.




% Changes -
DJI30 -0.16%
SP500 -0.58%
NASDAQ +0.48%
Russell 2000 -0.46%

DJI30 Closings -
11/23/18 - 24286
01/02/20 - 28869
10/23/20 - 28336
11/23/20 - 29872

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1324/1762 = 0.75
A/D Vol = 0.79
New Hi/Lo = 141/1 = 141.00

Friday, November 27, 2020

Yellow Arrow Sideways

DJI30 index at the close   —-   29,910.37   +37.90 (+0.13%)

The Index opened this abbreviated session at 29911, up 39 points.  It spiked to the hi of 30015, up 143, in the first 10 minutes, but was back down to 29920 before 10:00.  It stayed above the critical level of 30000 for less than 3 minutes.  It stayed above 29900 util 11:30.  Then there was a jagged fall to the lo of 29820 at 12:30, followed by jagged 90 point rise into the close at 1:00.

The 30000 barrier was challenged again, but with little enthusiasm and no duration. This level is very psychologically import, and a meaningful breach might open the floodgates. But - this is the 2nd inside day in a row, with the hi lower by 44 points and the lo higher by 38. The close was 20 points under the midpoint of Tuesday’s 370 point span.  The 198 point span was the smallest since 124 on 10/08. 

Upward momentum has been flat since 11/17, but has not yet begun to drop.  This is pretty much a MEH! kind of half day. 

I wonder why they even bothered.  

% Changes -
DJI30 +0.13%
SP500 +0.24%
NASDAQ +0.92%
Russell 2000 +0.56%

DJI30 Closings -
11/23/18 - 24286
01/02/20 - 28869
10/27/20 - 27463
11/27/20 - 29910

NYSE Internals -
A/D = 1712/1374 = 1.25
A/D Vol = 0.77

New Hi/Lo = 191 = 191.00